Green economy in China: Regional variations and policy drivers

For policy makers in China, the development of a green economy presents opportunities and challenges not only for the central government, but also for provincial and city governments. This study measures clean energy economy at the city level in China, by counting green jobs and firms through an analytical approach. As shown in this study, green jobs and green firms are distributed unevenly across different regions in China. This study also quantifies provincial clean energy policies in China and finds significant variations in clean energy policy actions. Spatial error model (SEM) analyses indicate that local clean energy policies, along with socio-economic factors such as population, per capita gross domestic product, educational attainment, emissions of sulfur dioxide, and marketization of the regional economy, explain the variation in green economy across cities. Cities located in a province with clean energy policies have 54.3% more green jobs and 61.8% more green businesses, compared with cities located in a province without such policies.     

Being green or being nice? People are more likely to share nicer but potentially less impactful green messages

As the world’s largest fossil fuels exporter, Russia is one of the key countries for addressing global climate change. However, it has never demonstrated any significant ambitions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper applies ideational research methodology to identify the structural differences in economic, political, and social normative contexts between industrialized fossil fuel importing economies and Russia that lead to the fundamental gap in motivations driving decarbonization efforts. Russia is unlikely to replicate the approach to the green transition and climate policy instruments of energy-importing countries. In order to launch decarbonization in Russia, interested stakeholders need to frame climate policies in Russia differently. Specifically, the framing must address the priority of diversification as a means to adapting the national economy to a new green landscape, the combination of diverse channels for decarbonization, the promotion of energy-efficiency, closer attention to climate-related forest projects, and linkage of climate change with other environmental problems. Moreover, considering Russia’s emissions as a part of the global economic system and shifting from a simplistic national focus on GHG emissions reduction would help coordinate policies through dialogue between exporters and importers of fossil fuel energy-intensive goods, which is essential for the global movement towards a net-zero future.

     

The economic case for prioritizing governance over financial incentives in REDD+

It is argued that the subordination of policies to results-based payments for emissions reductions causes severe economic inefficiencies, which affect the opportunity cost, transaction cost, and economic rent of the programme. Such problems can be addressed by establishing sound procedural, land, and financial governance at the national level, before Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) economic incentives are delivered at scale. Consideration is given to each governance dimension, the entry points for policy intervention, and the impact on costs. International support must consider the financial and political cost of governance reforms, and use a pay-for-results ethos based on output and outcome indicators. This can be done in the readiness phase but only if the latter's legal force, scope, magnitude, and time horizon are adequately reconsidered. This article provides ammunition for the institutionalists’ argument that United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Parties must prioritize governance reforms between now and the entry into force of the new climate agreement in 2020. Finally, specific recommendations about how such governance reforms can be achieved, which will create the basis for the programme's financial sustainability, are offered.

Policy relevance

UNFCCC Parties could make the most cost-effective use of REDD+ resources if they were to prioritize investments in governance over the interim period 2012–2020. REDD+’s financial, technical and political capital should be used to establish sound procedural, sectoral (land), and financial governance systems in relevant countries. This will generate long-term economic savings, compared to an approach that privileges the implementation of results-based payments for emissions reductions. In particular, it will reduce economic inefficiencies, which affect the opportunity and transaction costs, and the private rents embedded in the current programme design. In order to promote the necessary policy reforms, stakeholders should work together to address technical, financial, and political economy issues at the domestic level. In particular, UNFCCC Parties should re-conceptualize the readiness phase by strengthening its legal force, expanding its scope, increasing its financial firepower, and extending its time horizon.     

Battle over the sun: Resistance,tension, and divergence in enabling rooftop solar adoption in Indonesia

This article examines sustainability transitions in the Global South, focusing on the adoption of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems in Indonesia as a case study. Based on 55 in-depth interviews and a secondary data review, we develop an alternative analytical framework that draws insights from geographical political economy and political ecology. This alternative lens allows us to better inform the socio-technical transition literature by uncovering both the spatial implications of renewable energy transitions and the power differentials underpinning them. We find that the emergence of rooftop PV technology in Indonesia has provoked resistance, as it challenges the incumbent power company’s monopoly over urban space, the Java-Bali grid system’s dependency on coal-based electricity, and state-led practices that prioritise the implementation of small-scale solar in rural and remote areas. We argue that paying attention to the asymmetric power relations among institutions and actors across multiple scales offers a more-fine grained approach to analysing the dynamics of sustainability transitions. Our findings also call for greater attention to diverse and divergent perspectives among niche actors, emphasising the need to genuinely embrace local voices and knowledge that might otherwise be marginalised by the dominant globally and nationally driven narratives of renewable transition.     

Cleantech clusters: Transformational assemblages for a just,green economy or just business as usual?

The rhetorical zeal for green enterprise as a global fix for the tripartite challenges of economic recession, environmental degradation and social inequality is increasingly visible in state and non-state pronouncements around the globe under the banner of ‘The Green Economy’. In particular, many policy-facing statements call for transitions leading to a transformation in development practices. Yet there is little detail either in policy or research regarding the types of transitions needed and how they are to be initiated, nor agreement about what a transformed economy might look like. Despite this, there are emergent activities within the cleantech arena which are being heralded as actually existing examples of green economy activities. One means through which these activities are seeking to exert influence over development trajectories is by clustering both at the subnational and transnational level. While diverse in formation, many of these clusters are hybridised, involving actors from public, private and civil society sectors. Critiquing the efficacy of mainstream industrial cluster theory to analyse hybridised cleantech clustering, this paper presents a unique synthesis of current thought on multiscalar environmental governance and socio-spatial formations to explore the practices and potentialities of these hybridised cleantech clusters. Surveying the landscape of cleantech clustering and meta-clustering, before focusing in depth on one case study, the contribution of clustering to transitioning towards a transformed green economy is considered. Despite strong forces, both within and beyond cleantech clusters, for maintaining neoliberalised approaches to cleantech activity, it is concluded that for as long as cleantech clusters remain open and inclusive of actors proposing alternative pathways they do represent potential, albeit provisional, assemblages for transformation.     

Good practice policies to bridge the emissions gap in key countries

One key aspect of the Paris Agreement is the goal to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C by the end of the century. To achieve the Paris Agreement goals, countries need to submit, and periodically update, their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Recent studies show that NDCs and currently implemented national policies are not sufficient to cover the ambition level of the temperature limit agreed upon in the Paris Agreement, meaning that we need to collectively increase climate action to stabilize global warming at levels considered safe. This paper explores the generalization of previously adopted good practice policies (GPPs) to bridge the emissions gap between current policies, NDCs ambitions and a well below 2 °C world, facilitating the creation of a bridge trajectory in key major-emitting countries. These GPPs are implemented in eleven well-established national Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) for Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, European Union (EU), India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the United States, that provide least-cost, low-carbon scenarios up to 2050. Results show that GPPs can play an important role in each region, with energy supply policies appearing as one of the biggest contributors to the reduction of carbon emissions. However, GPPs by themselves are not enough to close the emission gap, and as such more will be needed in these economies to collectively increase climate action to stabilize global warming at levels considered safe.     

Anticipating industry localization effects of clean technology deployment policies in developing countries

National ‘green growth’ strategies, which aim at decoupling economic development from adverse environmental impacts, have become a new paradigm for policymakers in developing countries. Many green growth strategies are based on policy instruments designed to incentivize the domestic deployment of relatively mature clean technologies and aim at fostering the formation of a local industry to develop and produce these technologies. While the empirical evidence on the localization effect of such policies in developing countries is mixed, there is a dearth of research systemically analyzing how differences between technologies affect patterns of localization, which could explain the observed variance. We address this gap and develop a typology which distinguishes four types of technologies requiring different types of capabilities. We do so by combining insights from the literature on technology transfer and catching-up of industries with insights from the literature on patterns of innovation across the technology life- cycle. We apply this typology to the case of low-emission development strategies and four exemplary low-carbon technologies, namely small and micro hydro power, wind turbines, electric cars, and solar cells, in order to analyze capability requirements, innovation patterns, and the effect of past deployment policies on industry localization. We synthesize these case studies and derive a heuristic to anticipate the localization effects of deployment policies for different types of technologies in countries with varying income levels. We argue that the heuristic can serve as starting point for policymakers aiming at clean technology industry localization. The paper concludes with a discussion of possible technology-specific green growth strategies for developing countries with different income levels and for international institutions supporting green growth.     

Who will win the green race? In search of environmental competitiveness and innovation

As the world considers greener forms of economic growth, countries and sectors are beginning to position themselves for the emerging green economy. This paper combines patent data with international trade and output data in order to investigate who the winners of this “green race” might be. The analysis covers 110 manufacturing sectors in eight countries (China, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, South Korea, UK and the US) using date for the period 2005–2007. We identify three success factors for green competitiveness at the sector level: the speed at which sectors convert to green products and processes (measured by green innovation), their ability to gain and maintain market share (measured by existing comparative advantages) and a favourable starting point (measured by current output). We find that the green race is likely to alter the present competitiveness landscape. Many incumbent country-sectors with strong comparative advantages today lag behind in terms of green conversion, suggesting that they could lose their competitive edge. Japan, and to a lesser extent Germany, appear best placed to benefit from the green economy, while other European countries (Italy in particular) could fall behind. However, the green economy is much broader than the few flagship sectors on which the debate tends to focus, and each country has its niches of green competitiveness.     

Could fiscal policies induce green innovation in developing countries? The case of Brazilian manufacturing sectors

Brazil is the first major developing country to pledge for absolute reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. This article explores the extent to which fiscal policies could contribute to this reduction and to greening the Brazilian economy. It was found that the use of green fiscal policies is at an early stage in Brazil, but a growing number of measures have been adopted in recent years led by subnational-level policies. An econometric analysis of 24 Brazilian manufacturing sectors for the years 2001–2008 shows that some fiscal instruments, such as low-cost (subsidized) finance for innovation and fiscal incentives for sustainable practices, have been effective in inducing green innovation. However, less than 14% of more than 100 thousand companies included in the study have adopted greener technologies. Even though Brazilian green fiscal policies have been rather uncoordinated and ad hoc, their significant impact on the uptake of green technologies indicates these can play an important role in a transition to a green economy.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Faced with the challenge of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions in absolute terms, Brazil now needs to put in place policies to help deliver the country’s pledge. This article analyses which fiscal policies should be adopted and how these policies could form part of a low carbon policy framework in the country. Among our policy-relevant findings is that subnational green fiscal policies are relatively less complex to introduce and encourage uptake of green technologies. Thus, they could be an entry point to a wider green fiscal policy strategy. We also found that fiscal incentives for green innovation projects can present more than proportional impact on the uptake of green technologies owing to positive feedbacks, increasing returns to scale and spill-overs. These are attractive features of green innovations to developing countries in addition to environmental benefits, as they favour the accumulation of indigenous technological capabilities that are critical for long-term technological and economic development. These lessons learned from green fiscal policies in Brazil are applicable to other developing countries.     

Reform or reversal: the impact of REDD+ readiness on forest governance in Indonesia

Indonesia has turned its alleged role as global leader of land-based carbon emissions into a role as a global trailblazer exploring modalities for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+). REDD+ readiness is largely about improving forest governance, but this itself is a multilayered concept. This article analyses how the processes and practices of REDD+ readiness are leading to various forest governance reforms in Indonesia. We analysed six dimensions of REDD+ readiness progress over the past six years and the way these interact with land tenure reform and land-use planning. We found evidence that (1) tenure issues are taken more seriously, as evidenced by the development of social safeguard mechanisms and efforts to accelerate the gazettement of forest boundaries, although a constitutional court recognition in 2013 for customary forest management is, however, yet to be operationalized; (2) spatial planning relates forests more clearly to other parts of the landscape in terms of compliance with Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) commitments; and (3) the forest and peatland conversion moratorium initiative led to a revamping of forest management. Despite progress, there are still major obstacles to full REDD+ implementation in Indonesia. The discussion focuses on the weaker part of readiness and possible ways forward.     

Meeting Report

Top-down economic approaches theoretically show that placing a price on carbon can reduce emissions. Responses by firms to these policies, however, are less well understood and are critical for understanding the effectiveness of price-based carbon policy. This article provides an analysis of firm-level responses to the carbon tax in British Columbia (BC) through empirical research of grey literature, industry participation, and interviews with executives of major emitting firms in BC. The article highlights the empirical responses to the tax by firms, who experience difficulty in making low-carbon changes in response to fluctuating commodity prices, the low certainty of climate policy over temporal and spatial scales, and the political economy of implementing regional climate policy. It also highlights the importance of understanding firm-level responses as a complementary approach to macro-economic policy making on carbon pricing. The article shows the importance of engaging decision makers in corporations to understand how carbon is governed in light of emerging climate policy.

Policy relevance

This article is relevant to policy makers implementing carbon-pricing initiatives by illustrating the need to complement macroeconomic models with firm-level response analysis. It also demonstrates the key concerns of executives in a resource extractive economy and the ability of a carbon price, and the need for complementary technology funds and policy, to affect change in industrial emissions.     

Orchestrating transnational environmental governance in maritime shipping

Maritime shipping is the transmission belt of the global economy. It is also a major contributor to global environmental change through its under-regulated air, water and land impacts. It is puzzling that shipping is a lagging sector as it has a well-established global regulatory body—the International Maritime Organization. Drawing on original empirical evidence and archival data, we introduce a four-factor framework to investigate two main questions: why is shipping lagging in its environmental governance; and what is the potential for the International Maritime Organization to orchestrate emerging private ‘green shipping’ initiatives to achieve better ecological outcomes? Contributing to transnational governance theory, we find that conditions stalling regulatory progress include low environmental issue visibility, poor interest alignment, a broadening scope of environmental issues, and growing regulatory fragmentation and uncertainty. The paper concludes with pragmatic recommendations for the International Maritime Organization to acknowledge the regulatory difficulties and seize the opportunity to orchestrate environmental progress.     

Cutting with both arms of the scissors: the economic and political case for restrictive supply-side climate policies

Proponents of climate change mitigation face difficult choices about which types of policy instrument(s) to pursue. The literature on the comparative evaluation of climate policy instruments has focused overwhelmingly on economic analyses of instruments aimed at restricting demand for greenhouse gas emissions (especially carbon taxes and cap-and-trade schemes) and, to some extent, on instruments that support the supply of or demand for substitutes for emissions-intensive goods, such as renewable energy. Evaluation of instruments aimed at restricting the upstream supply of commodities or products whose downstream consumption causes greenhouse gas emissions—such as fossil fuels—has largely been neglected in this literature. Moreover, analyses that compare policy instruments using both economic and political (e.g. political “feasibility” and “feedback”) criteria are rare. This article aims to help bridge both of these gaps. Specifically, the article demonstrates that restrictive supply-side policy instruments (targeting fossil fuels) have numerous characteristic economic and political advantages over otherwise similar restrictive demand-side instruments (targeting greenhouse gases). Economic advantages include low administrative and transaction costs, higher abatement certainty (due to the relative ease of monitoring, reporting and verification), comprehensive within-sector coverage, some advantageous price/efficiency effects, the mitigation of infrastructure “lock-in” risks, and mitigation of the “green paradox”. Political advantages include the superior potential to mobilise public support for supply-side policies, the conduciveness of supply-side policies to international policy cooperation, and the potential to bring different segments of the fossil fuel industry into a coalition supportive of such policies. In light of these attributes, restrictive supply-side policies squarely belong in the climate policy “toolkit”.     

Multiple scales and regulatory gaps in environmental change: the case of salmon aquaculture

The significance of multiple scales within processes of global environmental change has attracted increasing attention. Yet the fundamental tasks of linking multiple levels at which regulatory decisions are required to multiple scales of impacts have only recently been identified. This paper addresses the importance of attention to multiple scales in regulatory decisions, how those decisions should link together across scales of governance or decision-making, and how mismatches among scales of impact and scales of regulation can lead to regulatory gaps and breakdowns. This paper begins by presenting a definition of a cross-scale regulatory problem, building on the concept of an externality. It argues that virtually all-significant environmental regulatory problems involve multiple scales at which decisions are required, and that coordination of these decisions is one of the major issues in regulatory design. The paper provides a generalization of what is needed for effective cross-scale regulation, and then discusses the example of salmon aquaculture in British Columbia to illustrate these points. In our view, gaps and mismatches in the regulatory framework across institutional scales appear to contribute to social controversy over salmon aquaculture. These gaps include (i) the site-by-site orientation of the current regulatory process, even though the major impacts are cumulative, and regional in significance, and (ii) the degree to which limitations on the extent of salmon aquaculture are implemented by local governments, even though provincial and federal governments have the mandate and expertise to address these questions.     

Pledges,politics and performance: an assessment of UK climate policy

Abstract

New Labour came to power in 1997 pledging to put environment concerns at the heart of policy-making. Shortly after being elected, the Labour Government signed the Kyoto Protocol and adopted a voluntary domestic target of a 20% cut in carbon dioxide emissions by 2010. This article looks at the development of UK climate policy since 1997 and the political drivers that have led to development of the climate policy mix. It assesses the Climate Change Programme adopted in 2000 and its delivery, and it also looks at the 5-year Climate Change Programme Review published in March 2006. It conducts a quantitative assessment of the UK's performance by looking at emissions data, and it also provides a qualitative analysis, by looking at the UK policies and measures within their political and institutional context. The article concludes that Labour has been actively promoting climate policy since coming to power and has played a strong leadership role internationally. The UK is on track to meet and surpass its Kyoto target, meeting its international commitments. Between 24.1 and 29.1 million tonnes of carbon savings per year are expected by 2010. Policies and measures in the industrial sector are delivering real emissions reductions, in addition to the reductions made through fuel switching. The Government has found it more difficult to make some of the tough choices necessary to deliver emissions reductions in the transport and the household sectors. The article seeks to explain why the Labour Government has found it uncomfortable, politically, to implement stronger measures in these parts of the economy. The article highlights the changing dynamics within UK politics and concludes that there are two possible avenues for taking more stringent measures in the future. The first involves the development of a cross-party consensus on climate change. The second is to change the way that climate change is framed, so that it is no longer seen as an ‘environment’ issue but one with which voters and decision-makers can immediately connect. Only then will it be possible to implement the necessary policies and measures across the whole economy.     

‘Earth system governance’ as a crosscutting theme of global change research

In 2001, the four global change research programmes ‘urgently’ called for ‘an ethical framework for global stewardship and strategies for Earth System management’. Yet this notion of ‘earth system management’ remains vaguely defined: It is too elusive for natural scientists, and too ambitious or too normative for social scientists. In this article, I develop an alternative concept that is better grounded in social science theory: ‘earth system governance’. I introduce, first, the concept of earth system governance as a new social phenomenon, a political programme and a crosscutting theme of research in the field of global environmental change. I then sketch the five key problem structures that complicate earth system governance, and derive from these four overarching principles for earth system governance as political practice, namely credibility, stability, adaptiveness, and inclusiveness. In the last part of the article, I identify five research and governance challenges that lie at the core of earth system governance as a crosscutting theme in global change research. These are the problems of the overall architecture of earth system governance, of agency beyond the state, of the adaptiveness of governance mechanisms and of their accountability and legitimacy, and of the modes of allocation in earth system governance—in short, the five A's of earth system governance research.     

Sustainable energy development and climate change in China

Abstract

This article analyses the national circumstances and major factors underpinning China's energy demand and supply, energy-related emissions, and consequently China's sustainable development. These factors include the huge, still growing, and aging population, rapid economic growth, ongoing industrialization and urbanization, environmental and health concerns at local, regional and global level. Against such background analysis, the article explores the potential and constraints of non-fossil fuel, fuel-switching to natural gas, economy restructuring and clean coal technology in mitigating emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and ensuring energy supply in China. The authors reiterate the importance of improving energy efficiency in China and discuss how to integrate renewable energy into rural development. The article concludes with an in-depth discussion about redefining development goals, the equity issue in climate change process, and the linkage with sustainable development.     

国际碳排放特征演进及中国应对建议

通过系统地比较各主要国家CO₂排放总量、人均排放量及排放强度等,总结发达国家碳排放特点,分析中国碳排放历程及各阶段出现的原因。比较分析发达国家和发展中国家应对气候变化的相关政策,结合中外碳排放特征,总结中国碳排放及应对气候变化面临的主要问题。提出中国新常态下应对气候变化的建议,包括在国际层面上,积极参与气候谈判,推动国际社会低碳化发展,在中国层面上,切实改变经济增长方式,引领经济低碳发展等。     

Public concern over global warming correlates negatively with national wealth

It has been shown previously that the awareness and concern of the general public about global warming is not only a function of scientific information. Both psychological and sociological factors affect the willingness of laypeople to acknowledge the reality of global warming, and to support climate policies of their home countries. In this paper, I analyse a cross-national dataset of public concern about global warming, utilising data from 46 countries. Based on earlier results at the national and regional level, I expect concern to be negatively correlated to national measures of wealth and carbon dioxide emissions. I find that gross domestic product is indeed negatively correlated to the proportion of a population that regards global warming as a serious problem. There is also a marginally significant tendency that nations’ per capita carbon dioxide emissions are negatively correlated to public concern. These findings suggest that the willingness of a nation to contribute to reductions in greenhouse gas emissions decreases with its share of these emissions. This is in accordance with psychological findings, but poses a problem for political decision-makers. When communicating with the public, scientists ought to be aware of their responsibility to use a language that is understood by laypeople.     

Deforestation in the Ayeyarwady Delta and the conservation implications of an internationally-engaged Myanmar

Myanmar is a country of huge biodiversity importance that is undergoing major political change, bringing with it new international engagement. This includes access to international markets, which will likely spur investment in export-oriented agriculture, leading to increased pressures on already threatened ecosystems. This scenario is illustrated in the Ayeyarwady Delta, the country's agricultural heartland sustaining high deforestation rates. Using the Delta as a model system, we use an integrated approach to inquire about whether and how imminent agricultural reforms associated with an internationally-engaged Myanmar could introduce new actors and incentives to invest in agricultural expansion that could affect deforestation rates. We use a novel remote sensing analysis to quantify deforestation rates for the Delta from 1978 to 2011, develop business-as-usual deforestation scenarios, and contextualize those results with an analysis of contemporary policy changes within Myanmar that are expected to alter the principal drivers of land-cover change. We show that mangrove systems of Myanmar are under greater threat than previously recognized, and that agriculture has been the principle driver of deforestation on the Delta. The centrality of agriculture to the Myanmar economy indicates that emerging policies are likely to tip the scales towards agricultural expansion, agro-industrial investment and potentially greater rates of deforestation due to the introduction of well-funded investors, insufficient land tenure agreements, and low governance effectiveness. The broad national challenge is to initiate environmental governance reforms (including safeguards) in the face of significant pressures for land grabbing and opportunistic resource extraction.