Protecting “First world” markets and “Third world” nature: The politics of illegal logging in Australia,the European Union and the United States

Global forest governance has recently seen the emergence of a timber legality regime. In an aim to regulate global timber trade flows, the US, the EU and Australia adopted laws prohibiting illegally harvested timber from entering their markets. While some view this as a milestone for environmental and social stewardship in the global forest sector, the effects of the regime remain contested.In order to better understand likely effects of the regime, we apply the Discursive Agency Approach to analyze discursive dynamics of policy making among the stakeholders involved in the creation of each law and their effects on governance design and implementation.Based on 120 interviews in the US, Australia, the EU and with global organizations/institutions, as well as 19 informal conversations, 300 documents, and participant observation data, our results show that legality is a powerful concept in forest governance. Drawing attention away from sustainability, it enables discursive divides between the global North and South as well as between wood producers and importers. These divides were crucial for the emergence of the legality regime. While some forest industry groups perceived the new laws as an opportunity, others saw them as a threat. In all three regions this led to coalitions between supportive industry factions and environmental groups. These coalitions were based on a complementarity of goals; environmentalists aimed to protect “Third World” forests while industry groups aimed to protect “First World” markets against growing competition from these former regions. Yet each coalition was composed differently and employed distinct – albeit related – discursive strategies in policy making. This affected the design of each law and its implementation. The shift from sustainability towards legality re-surfaces prominently in implementation. Stakeholder discussions range from coercive “threatening” to more learning-oriented “educating” approaches. We conclude by discussing the effects these discursive struggles in Australia, the EU and the US have on the global timber legality regime.     

Interannual and Decadal Variability of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the Southeast Coastal States of the United States

The interannual variability of the Atlantic tropical cyclone(TC)frequency is well known.Separately,recent studies have also suggested that a much longer,multidecadal(40-60 year)trend might be emerging from the recent increase in Atlantic TC activity.However,the overall structure of the intrinsic frequencies(or temporal modes)of Atlantic TC activity is not yet known.The focus of this study is to systematically analyze the intrinsic frequencies of Atlantic TC activity using hurricane and tropical storm landfall data collected along the southeast coast(SEC)of the United States.Based on an Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) analysis of the frequency of landfall TCs along the SEC from 188701999,we have found that Atlantic TC activity has four primary,temporal modes.The interannual and multidecadal modes reported in the published literature are two such modes.After identifying all primary modes,the relative importance of each mode and its physical cause can be analyzed.For example,the most energetic mode is the interannual mode(2-7 year period).This mode is known to be associated with the 2-7 year El Nino/La Nino cycle.The average number of annual landfalling TCs along the SEC decreased by 24% during El Nino years,but did not show significant increase during weak and moderate La Nina years.However,intense La Nina years were generally associated with more than average landfalling TCs along the SEC.The effects of El Nino and La Nina also became more significant when only hurricanes were considered.The significance of the effects of El Nino and La Nina on landfalling TCs and hurricanes in different US southeast coastal states showed significant differences.     

Rainfall in the Garden of the United States Great Plains, 1870–1889

The recent accumulation of all published precipitation records from 1870–1889 in the central and northern Great Plains of the United States provides a renewed potential in analyzing climatic reality during early settlement, corresponding to a time when some written histories documented that the Rain followed the Plow. Growing season precipitation in the central and northern Great Plains from 1870–1889 were examined relative to modern climatic normals (1961–1990). Growing season totals mostly exhibit little changes in precipitation in the region as compared to today. Some wetter springs and summers occurred in the Dakotas during the late 1870s and early 1880s, subsequent to the drier early-mid 1870s and corresponding to the Great Dakota Boom. Wetter summers occurred over the central Plains in the mid-1880s, corresponding to increased migration in Nebraska and Kansas. Drier summers occurred during the early 1870s and inactive settlement in the early 1880s. Although increased rainfall may have been conducive for early settlement, in general the Rain did not follow the Plow, with extreme seasonal and monthly heavy precipitation events at the subregional scale perhaps playing important roles on settlers' climatic perceptions. The results of this study provide a framework in order to conduct historical climate impact analyses as well as information that can be applied towards understanding spatial climatic variations further back into time.     

The discursive politics of ‘fracking’: Frames,storylines, and the anticipatory contestation of shale gas development in the United Kingdom

How contested sources of energy such as shale gas are perceived in frontier countries considering their development is incredibly important to national and international climate policies. The UK shale development case is of particular interest currently as the Government attempts to position the UK as a pioneer of European, safe, sustainable shale gas development. We conduct a mixed-methods analysis of the UK policy debate on shale gas development involving 30 stakeholder interviews and 1557 political documents. This empirical focus extends the existing literature by identifying the use of frames in and through the institutions and practices of formal UK politics. We identify nine key frames and their associated storylines, analyse their use over time, and compare these findings with other national case studies. Perhaps unsurprisingly, given most UK Governments within our timeframe have supported shale development, pro-shale development frames dominate in the policy debate; however, we also find a high level of anti-shale development frame use, suggesting a deep and ongoing framing contest in national formal political sites. We find in particular a more prominent focus on land-use issues and impacts on the landscape than other UK studies or other national contexts. Conceptually, the study puts forward an integrative approach to the related concepts of frames and storylines, as well as arguments concerning the impotence of storylines in anticipatory political debate and the polyvalence of framing strategies. Questions about governance are raised by the general lack of consensus over the framing of shale development within formal political sites, let alone amongst the broader public; and by the lack of a coherent response from the Government to criticisms of its approach. Finally, we reflect on the apparent lack of evidence for Hajer’s ‘communicative miracle’ in our case, and speculate as to whether the lack of broad-based resonance of the ‘bridge’ storyline signals trouble for the positive-sum thinking of ecological modernisation.     

Contributions of Atlantic tropical cyclones to monthly and seasonal rainfall in the eastern United States 1960�C2007

Tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Basin experiences great variability on intra-annual, interannual, and interdecadal timescales. George Cry found that TC rainfall presents an intra-seasonal pattern over the eastern USA, contributing up to 40% of total monthly rainfall. This study replicates much of what was done by Cry using a denser rain gauge network and more sophisticated techniques for analysis. Rainfall data for this study come from 717 stations from the Historical Climate Network covering 31 states to capture the tropical cyclone (TC) contribution in monthly and seasonal precipitation in the eastern USA. Results showed that September has the highest TC rainfall contribution and the coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, and Alabama receive more than 30% of monthly rainfall totals from TCs. Comparisons between 1931?C1960 and 1960?C2007 study periods show that the storm track density shifted slightly eastward, which explains some of differences between the two analyses.     

Winter Temperature Variability During Warming and Cooling Periods in the Conterminous United States, 1947–1992

Summary  Much literature has reported on the concept of increased surface temperature variability during cool periods, although analyses on temperature records have rendered inconsistent results. In addition, temperature variability during transition periods has been rarely investigated. This study examines temperature variability during wintertime cooling (1947–1977) and warming (1978–1992) periods for the conterminous United States to determine both whether temperature variability is different during warming or cooling periods, and whether the change in variability is supported by midtropospheric circulation conditions. Our results indicate that regions with high temperature variability are mostly found below the troughs in the midtropospheric pressure fields. The direction of change in temperature variability corresponding to cooling or warming conditions, however, varied spatially. For the southeastern and northeastern United States, winter temperatures were more variable during the cooling period than during the warming period, while the northern and central Great Plains had greater temperature variability during the warming period than the cooling period. Similar spatial patterns are also found for the changes in the variability of geopotential height fields. Such spatial patterns in the temperature and height variability during warming and cooling periods may be related to the dominant midtropospheric circulation patterns, such as the different phases of the Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern, and the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation events. It is concluded that the response of interannual temperature variability to climatic changes is determined by the variation in circulation patterns, and therefore, not spatially uniform. Received September 26, 1996 Revised April 2, 1998     

A science–policy interface in the global south: the politics of carbon sinks and science in Brazil

The IPCC and other global environmental assessment processes stress the need for national scientific participation to ensure decision makers’ trust in the associated scientific conclusions and political agendas. The underpinning assumption is that the relationship between scientists and decision makers at the national level is characterized by trust and interpretive synergy. Drawing on ethnographic research in Brazil, this article challenges that assumption through a case study of the policy uptake of divergent scientific interpretations as to whether or not the Amazon is a net carbon sink. It shows that the carbon sink issue became a site for struggles between important Brazilian scientists and decision-makers with central authority over the definition of the country’s official position in international climate negotiations. In a geopolitically charged scientific controversy involving scientific evidence bearing on the Kyoto Protocol, Brazilian decision makers studied revealed critical distance from national scientists advancing evidence that the Amazon is a net carbon sink. As such, the decision-makers’ interpretations were at odds also with dominant framings in the Brazilian media and closer to those of American scientists involved in carbon cycle research in the Amazon. Seeking to explain this disconnect, the paper discusses the divergent policy preferences of key scientists and decision-makers involved, and the correlations of these preferences with interpretations of the available scientific evidence. It identifies the continued impact of a national political tradition of limited participation in decision making and suggests that this tradition—while increasingly challenged by countervailing democratizing trends—is reinforced by key Brazilian decision makers’ constructions of science as a medium through which rich countries maintain political advantage. Reflecting this, key Brazilian decision-makers justified rejecting national scientists’ interpretations of the Amazon as a significant overall carbon sink by suggesting that the scientists’ scientific training and associated foreign interactions bias them in favor of foreign interests, compromising their ability to accurately identify national interests. The paper situates its analysis in terms of theories of the science–policy interface and argues for greater attention to the role of culturally and politically laden understandings of science and the role of science in policy and geopolitics.     

“Reasons for concern” (about climate change) in the United States

Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change commits its parties to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that “would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” Authors of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001a, b) offered some insight into what negotiators might consider dangerous by highlighting five “reasons for concern” (RFC’s) and tracking concern against changes in global mean temperature; they illustrated their assessments in the now iconic “burning embers” diagram. The Fourth Assessment Report reaffirmed the value of plotting RFC’s against temperature change (IPCC 2007a, b), and Smith et al. (2009) produced an unpated embers visualization for the globe. This paper applies the same assessment and communication strategies to calibrate the comparable RFC’s for the United States. It adds “National Security Concern” as a sixth RFC because many now see changes in the intensity and/or frequency of extreme events around the world as “risk enhancers” that deserve attention at the highest levels of the US policy and research communities. The US embers portrayed here suggest that: (1) US policy-makers will not discover anything really “dangerous” over the near to medium term if they consider only economic impacts that are aggregated across the entire country but that (2) they could easily uncover “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” by focusing their attention on changes in the intensities, frequencies, and regional distributions of extreme weather events driven by climate change.     

Ice Storm ’98 in Southcentral Canada and Northeastern United States: A Climatological Perspective

Summary Dubbed Ice Storm ’98, an extreme weather event characterized by two synoptic systems in succession dropped about 70–100 mm (in terms of water equivalent) of freezing precipitation over southeastern Ontario, southwestern Quebec and northeastern New York during a 6-day period from January 5 to 10 in 1998. Individually, the two synoptic systems were not dramatically more extreme in freezing precipitation than other major freezing rain events (4 since 1961) which occurred in the past over the affected area. Some regions in the target area, however, were impacted more by the second system. Based on an analysis of the 500 hPa vorticity field during the ’98 event, we suggest that the 1997/98 El Ni?o had a role in creating a flow environment conducive to the rapid formation of the second synoptic system. In contrast, other major freezing rain events in the last 30 years involved only one synoptic system per event lasting no more than 3 days, and producing 20–50 mm of precipitation. We have also found that, 3 out of 4 past major freezing rain events since 1958 were associated with the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Consistent with this usual past association between the NAO and a major freezing rain event, Ice Storm ’98 also occurred when the phase of the NAO was positive. Analysis of these 3 past and the ’98 events also indicates an apparent connection between the positive phase of the NAO and the northern Quebec high pressure system, which is an essential synoptic feature of a major freezing rain occurrence over the southcentral region of Canada. As measured by their respective indices, the maximum positive NAO state leads the maximum northern Quebec high by about 2 days (5 days in the ’98 event). There is some suggestive evidence to indicate that the persistence of the northern Quebec high pressure system is connected to the persistence of the positive phase of the NAO. Received January 17, 2000     

Some Unique Characteristics of Atmospheric Interannual Variability in Rainfall Time Series over India and the United Kingdom

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Lost in translation? United States television news coverage of anthropogenic climate change, 1995–2004

Eminent climate scientists have come to consensus that human influences are significant contributors to modern global climate change. This study examines coverage of anthropogenic climate change in United States (U.S.) network television news – ABC World News Tonight, CBS Evening News and NBC Nightly News – and focuses on the application of the journalistic norm of ‘balance’ in coverage from 1995 through 2004. This study also examines CNN WorldView, CNN Wolf Blitzer Reports and CNN NewsNight as illustrations of cable news coverage. Through quantitative content analysis, results show that 70% of U.S. television news segments have provided ‘balanced’ coverage regarding anthropogenic contributions to climate change vis-à-vis natural radiative forcing, and there has been a significant difference between this television coverage and scientific consensus regarding anthropogenic climate change from 1996 through 2004. Thus, by way of the institutionalized journalistic norm of balanced reporting, United States television news coverage has perpetrated an informational bias by significantly diverging from the consensus view in climate science that humans contribute to climate change. Troubles in translating this consensus in climate science have led to the appearance of amplified uncertainty and debate, also then permeating public and policy discourse.     

Long‐term annual surface heat and water balances over Canada and the United States South of 60°N: Reconciliation of precipitation,run‐off and temperature fields

Abstract

The analysis compares the observed field of run‐off (assumed correct) with adjusted precipitation over North America (as amended by den Hartog and LeDrew over Canada) and derives the principal hydroclimatological ratios for each five‐degree latitude‐longitude square. The amended precipitation field yields values of the Budyko dry ness index close to values suggested by the vegetation distribution. The Priestley‐Taylor parameter, α, lies between unity (equilibrium) and potential (1.26) values over much of humid North America, but exceeds these values in the northwest Pacific squares, where advective heating may be the cause. Other regions of strong seasonal advective heating (e.g. the Great Plains) do not appear to influence the distribution strongly. A weighted convective forcing temperature is derived, varying from 298 K in the extreme south to below 285 K in the north. This function (and the Bowen ratio) achieve improbable values in northern Labrador‐ Ungava. The precipitation, run‐off and net radiation régimes appear still to be out of balance in these squares. An adjustment of either precipitation or net radiation by about a tenth corrects the imbalance, but the method is not capable of deciding which field (or both) is in error. Over the rest of the continent the adjusted precipitation field now appears to be in balance with observed run‐off and temperature distributions.     

Beyond the “fit”: introducing climate forecasts among organic farmers in Georgia (United States)

Organic farmers are a prime clientele for climate services by virtue of their social profile and vulnerability of produce to climate extremes. The study draws on an online survey and in-depth interviews with organic farmers in Georgia (United States). It shows that organic farmers access and act on climate information in ways that reflect their emphasis on diversified and flexible systems. They favor a pluralistic knowledge base that integrates scientific expertise with place-based experience and intuitive understandings. Their management style combines information at multiple temporal scales and draws on a range of technical and social resources. Translating climate forecasts into usable science for organic farming requires attention to the identities, commitments, and relationships that define the organic farming community.     

An OGCM Simulation of Seasonal and Interannual Variabilities in the Surface—Layer Pacific of the Equatorial Band

The heat budget is analyzed in the surface-layer (0-50 m) Pacific of the equatorial band (10°S-10°N),using the simulation of an ocean general circulation model from 1945 to 1993. The analysis indicates that downward net surface heat flux from the atmosphere and ocean advective heat fluxes play distinct roles in seasonal and interannual variabilities of surface-layer ocean temperature. The surface heat flux dominantly determines the ocean temperature in the seasonal time-scale. But, it has a negative feedback to the ocean temperature in the interannual time-scale. The interannual variability of ocean temperature is largely associated with the cold advection from off-equatorial divergent flow in the central Pacific and from upwelling in the cold tongue. Both the surface heat flux and ocean advective heat fluxes are important to the ocean temperature during an El Nino event. The ocean advective heat fluxes are further associated with local westward trade wind in the central Pacific. These results are largely consistent with some regional observational analyses.     

North Pacific SST Forcing on the Central United States “Warming Hole” as Simulated in CMIP5 Coupled Historical and Uncoupled AMIP Experiments

The central United States experienced a cooling trend during the twentieth century, called the “warming hole,” most notably in the last quarter of the century when global warming accelerated. The coupled simulations of the models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phases 3 and 5 (CMIP3/5), have been unable to reproduce this abnormal cooling phenomenon satisfactorily. An unrealistic representation of the observed phasing of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)—one of the proposed forcing mechanisms for the warming hole—in the models is considered to be one of the main causes of this effect. The CMIP5’s uncoupled Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiment, whose duration approximately coincides with the peak warming hole cooling period, provides an opportunity, when compared with the coupled historical experiment, to examine the role of the variation in Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) in the warming hole’s formation and also to assess the skill of the models in simulating the teleconnection between Pacific SST and the continental climate in North America. Accordingly, this study compared AMIP and historical runs in the CMIP5 suite thereby isolating the role of SST forcing in the formation of the warming hole and its maintenance mechanisms. It was found that, even when SST forcing in the AMIP run was “perfectly” prescribed in the models, the skill of the models in simulating the warming hole cooling in the central United States showed little improvement over the historical run, in which SST is calculated interactively, even though the AMIP run overestimated the anti-correlation between temperature in the central United States and the PDO index. The fact that better simulation of the PDO phasing in the AMIP run did not translate into an improved summer cooling trend in the central United States suggests that the inability of the coupled CMIP5 models to reproduce the warming hole under the historical run is not mainly a result of the mismatch between simulated and observed PDO phasing, as believed.     

What can ecological science tell us about opportunities for carbon sequestration on arid rangelands in the United States?

Scientific interest in carbon sequestration on rangelands is largely driven by their extent, while the interest of ranchers in the United States centers on opportunities to enhance revenue streams. Rangelands cover approximately 30% of the earth's ice-free land surface and hold an equivalent amount of the world's terrestrial carbon. Rangelands are grasslands, shrublands, and savannas and cover 312 million hectares in the United States. On the arid and semi-arid sites typical of rangelands annual fluxes are small and unpredictable over time and space, varying primarily with precipitation, but also with soils and vegetation. There is broad scientific consensus that non-equilibrium ecological models better explain the dynamics of such rangelands than equilibrium models, yet current and proposed carbon sequestration policies and associated grazing management recommendations in the United States often do not incorporate this developing scientific understanding of rangeland dynamics. Carbon uptake on arid and semi-arid rangelands is most often controlled by abiotic factors not easily changed by management of grazing or vegetation. Additionality may be impossible to achieve consistently through management on rangelands near the more xeric end of a rangeland climatic gradient. This point is illustrated by a preliminary examination of efforts to develop voluntary cap and trade markets for carbon credits in the United States, and options including payment for ecosystem services or avoided conversion, and carbon taxation. A preliminary analysis focusing on cap and trade and payment for avoided conversion or ecosystem services illustrates the misalignment between policies targeting vegetation management for enhanced carbon uptake and non-equilibrium carbon dynamics on arid United States rangelands. It is possible that current proposed carbon policy as exemplified by carbon credit exchange or offsets will result in a net increase in emissions, as well as investment in failed management. Rather than focusing on annual fluxes, policy and management initiatives should seek long-term protection of rangelands and rangeland soils to conserve carbon, and a broader range of environmental and social benefits.     

The Role of Topography and Diabatic Heating in the Formation of Dipole Blocking in the Atmosphere

In this paper, the nonlinear stationary waves forced by topography and diabatic heating are investigated. It is pointed out that (1) the nonlinear interaction of different stationary waves forced only by topography might form dipole blocking in the atmosphere, this might explain the dipole blocking appeared in the Pacific and Atlantic regions; (2) the dipole blocking could not be caused by the nonlinear interaction of the different stationary waves forced by the diabatic heating alone; (3) the nonlinear interaction of the diffferent stationary waves forced by both topography and diabatic heating could initiate dipole blocking in the atmosphere. In winter, the dipole blocking mainly occurs in the west regions of the Pacific and the Atlantic, and the heat source over the western part of the two oceans is advantageous to the formation of dipole blocking in the west of two oceans. However, in summer, the dipole blocking could be formed in the east part of the two oceans, and the heat source over the eastern     

Domestic politics and the diffusion of international policy innovations: How does accommodation happen?

What happens to policy innovations after they have been adopted? What factors account for subsequent changes to these policies? These are the research questions guiding this study on the spread of and subsequent changes to limit values for nitrogen oxide emissions from large combustion plants. By comparing the processes of diffusion and follow-up policy changes, we assess whether and how policy innovations translate into policy making. In so doing, we build on the literature on the determinants of policy diffusion and transfer. We employ original data on instances of policy adoption and policy change in 24 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries over a period of thirty years (1976–2005). The data are analysed using semi-parametric event-history models. Our empirical findings show that both international and domestic factors account for the observed variation in our data regarding both first-time adoptions and post-adoption modifications. The results reveal that the subsequent tightening of emission standards faces greater obstacles than their mere diffusion (i.e., policy adoption). While international factors and supranational integration appear to impede the subsequent tightening of existing policies, international peer pressure is a strong predictor of an on-going regulatory commitment. Overall, adoption and accommodation processes seem to follow distinctive patterns, suggesting that a promising strategy in policy innovation research would involve differentiation between the first-time adoption and subsequent modification of policies.