CAPPS在国家气象中心多城市污染指数数值预报业务系统中的应用

国家气象中心在中国气象科学研究院CAPPS系统的基础上,建立了多城市污染指数数值预报业务系统,同时预报47个重点城市的SO2、NO2和PM10的日均污染指数.从2001年6月21日至7月17日的试验预报表明,总体预报准确率和与监测值的相关都在60%以上,与各城市气象局、环境保护局联合发布的综合预报准确率和与监测值的相关比较接近.说明CAPPS用于国家气象中心多城市污染指数数值预报业务系统,能够为城市空气质量业务预报提供有参考价值的数值预报产品.     

The envivonment of the Russian Federation in 2006-2015: State and pollution dynamics

The present research is based on the annual Reviews of Environmental Conditions and Pollution in the Russian Federation and Yearbooks of Environmental Pollution in the Russian Federation for the period of 2006-2015. The parameters and estimates of abiotic environmental component (air, surface water, and soil) and radiation conditions are generalized from the data of the national observation system of environmental conditions (a base of the national system of environmental pollution monitoring in the Russian Federation) as well as from the data of local environmental observation systems. The results of the analysis of observational data and the conclusion on the conservation of high levels of air pollution in the cities and surface water pollution in many water bodies (including the assessment of priority of existing problems) are an important element of the informational support of state control of the sources of pollutant emissions (discharges) to the environment. The given information is also used for the comprehensive assessment of the influence of unfavorable environmental factors on the population health and terrestrial and water ecosystems. Besides, information on the dynamics and actual levels of environmental pollution allows assessing the efficiency of nature protection measures taking into account the observed trends and dynamics of variations.     

基于KZ滤波的京津冀2013～2018年大气污染治理效果分析

通过国务院“大气十条”等严格的大气污染治理措施的实施,近年来我国空气质量得到全面改善。对大气污染治理效果开展科学分析研究,可为后续空气质量持续改善、污染科学精准治理提供有效科技支撑。由于气象条件是影响污染物浓度分布的重要因素,治理效果分析的一个重要问题是区分气象条件和减排措施对污染物浓度变化的具体贡献。本文利用京津冀地区13个城市2013～2018年86个监测站点逐日PM2.5浓度以及欧洲中期气象预报中心（ECMWF）气象再分析资料,采用KZ（Kolmogorov–Zurbenko）滤波分析PM2.5浓度观测序列的时频特性,将其分解为短期天气影响分量、中期季节变化分量以及长期趋势分量3个部分,针对分解浓度序列建立气象因子回归模型,实现定量评估气象和减排对治理效果的具体贡献。在研究时间段内,京津冀地区13个城市PM2.5浓度的长期分量显著下降（22.2%～58.0%）,其中邢台市下降幅度最大（58.0%）。整体分析表明,气象条件和排放源均有利于大气污染的改善,但减排措施是空气质量显著改善的决定性原因,具体贡献为气象条件的影响占18.5%,排放源的影响占81.5%。逐城分析表明,唐山市的气象条件最有利于PM2.5浓度的减小（29.2%）,而衡水市的减排措施最有利于PM2.5浓度的减小（92.0%）。     

自动气象站地面温度差值原因分析

基于环境影响评价工作的实际需要,为使环境影响评价工作中污染源强及治理效果的确定更加科学、合理、快捷,开发出了造纸工业污染源强及治理效果数据库。数据库利用VB所编辑而成的前端程序接收用户的输入信息,通过操纵ADO控件进而调用Access的驱动程序,将信息作用于数据库,并反馈给用户。该数据库可以对造纸工业污染源强及治理效果相关内容进行科学的存储、更新、增减、打印输出等操作,并能根据用户的不同需求,对工程的概况、污染物生产情况、治理方法、效果等多项内容进行单条件或组合条件的查询。     

Societal premises for sustainable development in large southern cities

This article examines considerations related to the societal premises of a ‘sustainable city’ in the context of large southern cities. The article also reviews some alternative concepts to ‘sustainable city’ such as ‘eco-city’ and ‘ecological city’ and examines their suitability in the South. The article proposes that the greatest challenge of environmental urban development in the South is not necessarily the lack of environmental services and infrastructure, but the societal structures reproducing unequal distribution and malfunctioning of these services. The authors’ empirical evidence and personal experience from Lagos, New Delhi, Cairo and Manila is presented to elaborate the argument. The article calls for locally defined ‘sustainable city’ models that consider local societal and cultural resources and constraints along with environmental improvements. In this process, sustainability is not regarded as a goal, but as a criterion for motivated and transparent administration as well as efficient, flexible and equal service provision and resource allocation.     

基于自动站资料的灰霾观测判据研讨

针对当前有较大争议的灰霾观测中两个判据(能见度和相对湿度)的阈值选取问题,对嘉兴市2007—2009年人工观测灰霾记录,观测站能见度自动仪及相对湿度等资料以及2007—2009年环保部门空气污染指数、周边地市霾日进行了对比分析,对人工观测灰霾日数的合理性进行探讨;并进一步根据同年份能见度自动仪资料及相对湿度自动站资料,调试不同的阈值,将得出的灰霾天数与人工观测值再次进行对比,最终提出一个适用于本地实际的灰霾日观测判据,并指出经过订正后的自动站资料可替代人工观测值用于霾雾的辨析。     

Systemic vulnerabilities of the global urban-industrial network to hazards

Cities in the USA engage in action on climate change, even as the federal government remains resistant to comprehensive climate policy. While experts generally agree that local level adaptation and mitigation policies are critical to avoiding the worst climate impacts, the degree to which cities communicate climate change issues to their constituents has yet to be fully explored. In this article, we evaluate how US cities communicate climate change-related issues, problems, and policies. We use a computer-assisted approach to evaluate climate change efforts by cities by examining the full text of press releases of 82 large cities in the USA. We first identify who discusses climate change, finding that many large cities in the USA address climate change in their public communication. Second, we examine the content of these discussions. Many cities discuss weather-related concerns in conjunction with broad collaborative efforts to address global warming, while city-based policy discussions focus more on energy and transportation efforts. Third, we evaluate the local factors associated with these discussions. We find that the city’s climate vulnerability is particularly influential in shaping the level and timing of climatic communication.     

Synergies in addressing air quality and climate change

Air quality is a serious concern for the protection of human health and our natural environment. The pollutants contributing the most to both local and transboundary air pollution problems are SO₂, NO_x, NH₃, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and fine particulate matter (PM), and mostly originate from the same sources as greenhouse gases. There are thus strong interactions between strategies designed to improve air quality and those addressing climate change. This article examines these interactions, and the benefits of combined strategies with greater attention to the overall environmental impacts, and finding the ‘win—win’ solutions. Illustrations are provided from the development of policy in Europe under the UN ECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution, which is now inextricably linked with strategies to control greenhouse gases.     

Economic instruments for mitigating carbon emissions: scaling up carbon finance in China’s buildings sector

The relevance and cost-effectiveness are key criteria for policymakers to select appropriate policy and economic instruments for reducing carbon emissions. Here we assess the applicability of carbon finance instruments for the improvement in building energy efficiency by adopting the high efficiency standards as well as advanced energy supply systems, building on a case study in a northern city in China. We find that upgrading the current Chinese BEE standard to one of the best practices in the world coupled with the state-of-the-art energy supply system implies an abatement cost at 16US$/tCO₂, which is compatible with the international carbon market price. The institutional reorganization turns out to be indispensable to facilitate the implementation of the proposed scheme of local government-led energy efficiency programme in the form of programmatic CDM in China’s buildings sector. We show that with international support such as carbon finance, the BEE improvement will facilitate city’s transition to low-carbon supply in the longer term. More importantly, it is argued that demand-side energy performance improvement in buildings should be considered a prerequisite to shifting low-carbon energy supply technologies such as fuel-switching, renewable power generation and Carbon Capture and Storage to address climate mitigation in light of cost-effectiveness and environmental integrity.     

National leverage points to reduce global pesticide pollution

There is an urgent need to reduce the environmental risk of pesticide pollution worldwide. We here explore national leverage points, using a novel dataset of 21.4 million georeferenced grid cells and a spatial regression discontinuity design. Our analysis lets us separate how much cross-country differences in the risk of pesticide pollution are caused by differences in countries’ agricultural systems and policies and how much is explained by other factors, such as environmental differences between the countries for example (e.g. pest pressures). We estimate that a third of the global cross-country differences in the pesticide pollution risk are caused by differences in countries’ agricultural systems and policies. The main explanations, and thus leverage points for policies, are differences in countries’ pesticide regulations, their share of organic farming, and type of crops that are grown. We find a trade-off between pesticide pollution risk and soil erosion only in the Americas and in Asia, but not elsewhere, and we do not find a trade-off between pesticide pollution risk and crop yield gaps.     

How is climate change perceived in relation to other socioeconomic and environmental threats in Nairobi,Kenya?

This article examines the perception of climate change, in relation to 21 other socioeconomic and environmental problems, on the part of 132 respondents to a survey conducted in the city of Nairobi, Kenya. Factor analysis, used to condense these interrelated problems into a few dimensions, identified two overriding threats: the first being to socioeconomic security, and the second to the physical environment. Threats to socioeconomic security explained 76.6% of the variance in the rating of environmental and socioeconomic problems facing Nairobi, with very high factor loadings from corruption, unemployment, crime, street children, garbage, transport, poverty, pollution of Nairobi River, HIV/AIDS and immorality/promiscuity. Threats to the physical and living environment explained 22.2% of the variance in the rating of environmental and socioeconomic problems facing Nairobi. We were led to conclude that the respondents did not perceive climate change as being a significant problem in Nairobi. The global concern about climate change appeared like a mere drop in the oceanic context pervaded by problems of poverty, unemployment, crime and corruption, etc. which Nairobi faces, as does Kenya as a whole. Our conclusion is partially reflected in the priorities of the Kenyan government, which focus on poverty alleviation, the fight against crime and graft, improved access to education, and on addressing health problems; it also poses a challenge to the climate change community to find ways to making interventions relevant to local socioeconomic reality facing a developing country city like Nairobi. There may be a need to reconsider ‘whose reality counts’ (borrowing from Robert Chambers, Whose reality counts? Putting the first last, Intermediate Technology Publications, London, p 122, 1997) in addressing climate change: should protracted Kyoto protocol negotiations be given priority or should a long lasting solution be sought to socioeconomic problems facing developing world cities such as Nairobi? We recommend that the ongoing efforts at integrating climate risk management, as components of climate-sensitive sustainable development, be studied in many settings, with a focus on the developing world which is the most vulnerable, in order to inform decision-making and development of intervention measures.     

温室气体排放信息披露经验借鉴与政策建议

温室气体排放信息披露是确保实现温室气体排放总量控制目标和顺利开展碳交易、推动企业碳减排的重要前提和根本保障。研究表明,通过明确法律制度保障、完善信息披露路径、加强监管等措施,可以有效建立温室气体排放信息披露制度。建议在综合考虑国内碳市场信息披露、省级重点企业温室气体排放信息披露、环境信息披露等工作基础上,推动我国温室气体排放信息披露在法律基础、制度框架、重点要素等方面的顶层设计,并加强监管。     

石家庄大气污染与沙尘天气的关系分析

利用2002—2006年石家庄市逐时气象资料和环境监测资料,分析了8次典型沙尘天气对空气污染的影响。结果表明:沙尘天气的首要污染物均是可吸入颗粒物,春季中度以上污染日平均出现在沙尘日当日或次日;造成石家庄沙尘天气污染源分外来型、本地型以及二者共同影响型3种;其中,本地型沙尘污染多受冷锋影响,PM10浓度与风速呈正相关。而外来型污染多处于弱气压场控制,PM10浓度与南风呈反相关,而当风向转偏北时则利于污染物积累。     

Using Protection Motivation Theory to examine information-seeking behaviors on climate change

Many earlier studies concluded that exposure to changes in local weather or extreme weather events prompt public interest in climate change, and in turn raise support for mitigation policies. However, these findings do not square with observations of record-breaking temperatures, and decades of failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To address this conundrum, we use Protection Motivation Theory to form hypotheses on the specific type of climate change-related information that individuals seek during periods of extreme local weather. Using daily-level internet search engine data from Chinese cities, we find that residents are purposeful and rational in seeking information on climate change. Specifically, when faced with high or abnormal temperatures, they are much more likely to seek information to appraise their susceptibility to climate change threats, and evaluate coping responses. On the other hand, due to the lack of direct benefits, they do not seek out information on climate mitigation behaviors. In contrast to earlier studies, our findings suggest that it is unlikely that extreme weather events will prompt support for climate mitigation actions. Instead, as worldwide weather becomes more extreme and unpredictable, it is likely that public’s attention will shift in the direction of adaptation measures.     

辽宁中部城市群大气污染防治对策探讨

根据对辽宁中部城市群大气污染特征及污染发展趋势的分析,探讨了大气污染防治原则、对策及政策措施。辽宁中部城市群的大气污染属煤烟－机动车尾气-扬尘复合型,对其深化整治要在容量测算基础上以大气污染排放控制和环境空气质量达标为基本目标,以发展清洁能源、合理城市布局、调整工业布局和“控源”为主要途径,以消减污染物排放总量为重点,利用总量控制和浓度控制相结合、产业结构调整和技术改进相结合的综合防治手段,制定科学的城市群空气环境质量防治规划。     

Environmental impacts of urban growth from an integrated dynamic perspective: A case study of Shenzhen, South China

China is home to one-fifth of the world's population and that population is increasingly urban. The landscape is also urbanizing. Although there are studies that focus on specific elements of urban growth, there is very little empirical work that incorporates feedbacks and linkages to assess the interactions between the dynamics of urban growth and their environmental impacts. In this study, we develop a system dynamics simulation model of the drivers and environmental impacts of urban growth, using Shenzhen, South China, as a case study. We identify three phases of urban growth and develop scenarios to evaluate the impact of urban growth on several environmental indicators: land use, air quality, and demand for water and energy. The results show that all developable land will be urban by 2020 and the increase in the number of vehicles will be a major source of air pollution. Demand for water and electricity will rise, and the city will become increasingly vulnerable to shortages of either. The scenarios also show that there will be improvements in local environmental quality as a result of increasing affluence and economic growth. However, the environmental impacts outside of Shenzhen may increase as demands for natural resources increase and Shenzhen pushes its manufacturing industries out of the municipality. The findings may also portend to changes other cities in China and elsewhere in the developing world may experience as they continue to industrialize.     

从理念到行动：温室气体与局地污染物减排的协同效益与协同控制研究综述

自20世纪90年代IPCC提出协同效益概念以来,大量研究充分证实了温室气体减排政策、措施能产生可观的局地生态环境质量和健康效益。相应地,既有研究也证实局地大气污染物减排政策、措施对温室气体减排同样具有协同效益。中国进入工业化成熟期不久,局地大气污染压力即达到峰值,又迎头遭遇国际应对气候变化浪潮,同时面临空气污染物与温室气体双重减排压力。因此,国内研究不仅关注“由碳及污”或“由污及碳”的单向协同效益评估,更加重视对综合减排措施的协同效益评价。21世纪初,美国国家环保局提出的温室气体与局地大气污染物协同控制概念在中国得到更为广泛的欢迎和接受,并由中国学者首先定义了协同控制的内涵,认为协同控制是实现最大化协同效益的手段和途径。这一进展将人们对协同效益的认识提升到“全球视野、局地行动”的新高度,推动人们从被动地接受“协同效益”,转而主动寻求“协同控制”温室气体和局地大气污染物,为统筹全球和国内（局地）两个减排战场,提供了从认识论、方法论到实践论的全方位支持。中国学者在国内外协同效益、协同控制研究基础上,构建协同控制效应评价和协同控制路径规划方法,并通过多个行业、城市、区域的案例研究证实了该方法体系的科学性和可行性。“协同控制”也已上升成为国家应对气候变化和持续改善大气环境质量的重要策略。在中国推进美丽中国建设、实现碳达峰目标和碳中和愿景的过程中,协同控制的理念、措施、政策将发挥愈加重要的作用。未来,协同控制研究需要将所关注的对象要素,从仅局限于大气扩展至整个生态环境系统;而对建立协同控制的治理体系的研究,将成为实现宏观层面气候变化与生态环境治理协同的关键。     

Relationships between Synoptic Climatology and Atmospheric Pollution at 4 US Cities

Summary  An evaluation of the impacts of weather on pollution, specifically, ozone and total suspended particulates concentration for Summer, is examined in four cities in the U.S.: Birmingham, Cleveland, Philadelphia, and Seattle. These cities were selected because of their different climate regimes and their generally good pollutant and meteorological datasets. This paper uses a synoptic climatological approach, which combines a number of atmospheric factors, to better identify the relationships between atmospheric pollution and climatological conditions. Synoptic events represent holistic units of atmospheric conditions which commonly occur at a given locale, and possess specific weather and pollution characteristics. A number of weather variables, including temperature, are used in the development of a synoptic index, which can be used to identify synoptic events associated with specific pollution episodes. Results from the analysis illustrate that there is a substantial difference in pollution loads under different synoptic patterns, and that the cities do have substantially different relationships. Information from this study could be used to assist in the analysis of the differential impacts of weather and pollution upon human morbidity. Specific information as to the linkages between the synoptic weather patterns, pollution concentrations, and human health could be used in the development of weather/health watch-warning systems to alert the public that a synoptic episode is imminent. Received September 18, 1998     

大气污染系数概念的辩正及其在甘肃部分地区的初步应用

1.引言工业污染源对环境的影响是长期的,在环境影响分析和城镇工业规划设计中,需要依据气候资料来分析污染浓度变化的长期统计规律,这就涉及到空气污染气候学的论题。影响空气污染的气象因子是很多的:如风向、风速、大气稳定度、混合层厚度、降水等。但不论哪类空气污染问题,风向、风速总是重要的因子,风向指示污染物的输送方向,风速决定污染物的稀释和输送速率。     

偏东小风在武汉市秋冬季重污染形成过程中的作用

综合运用了多元资料（环境空气质量监测资料、地面气象观测资料、L波段雷达探空资料、风廓线雷达探空资料和再分析资料）和多种方法（后向轨迹追踪、聚类分析、潜在源区贡献法和数值模拟）,研究了武汉地区特殊气象条件对重污染过程的影响,揭示了偏东小风所带来的外源污染物对形成严重污染日的贡献.主要研究结论如下：1）后向轨迹追踪分析表明,武汉地区严重污染日气流主要为来自安徽南部（47.5%）的偏东小风,模拟结果也显示偏东气流、偏北气流与局地环流共同作用,在武汉地区形成一个局地涡旋,成为反复污染带,加重了武汉地区的污染程度;2）利用潜在源区贡献法（PSCF）分析发现,武汉市秋冬季的潜在源区主要是安徽、江苏、山东、河南、湖南、江西以及武汉周边地区,因此在冬季大范围污染背景下,跨区域的联防联控（尤其是安徽南部地区）才能有效地减少武汉市秋冬季的重污染日.