On El Niño’s impact upon the climate characteristics of the Indian monsoon

The statistical analysis of the secular hydrometeorological data sets revealed a particular El Niño impact on the climatic system of the Indian Ocean domain. The spatial distribution of the sequent anomalies showed prominent local effects depending on the climatic season as well. The El Niño signal turned out to be better visible within the considered fields during the transitional phases of the Indian monsoon, when its activity is rather weak, unstable, or even almost absent. The hints of certain phase shifts found to appear in the monsoon cycle coincided timely with the El Niño event. First of all, this concerns the hamper effect, which being applied to the wind stress field in the spring season leads to the later onset of the wet southwest monsoon, which is accompanied by a precipitation shortage over huge inhabited territories. During the northeast monsoon, the equatorial-tropic part of the domain is affected by El Niño in such a way that the eastern near surface air transport arises and after this the Winter Monsoon Equatorial Current notably increases its speed. Quantitative estimations showed that the El Niño signal’s relative energy in the Indian Ocean area is nearly an order of magnitude lower when compared to the total monsoon energy. This implies that the total impact of El Niño upon the Indian Ocean domain’s climate system could not lead to a fundamental change of its regime, as, for example, a reversal of the monsoon circulation.     

Analysis of the cause and effect relationships between El Niño in the Pacific and its analog in the equatorial Atlantic

The relations between the processes occurring in the equatorial latitudes of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans were studied on the basis of the Granger causality analysis and a simulation of phase dynamics using the indices of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the equatorial Atlantic mode (EAM). Data on the monthly means of the sea-surface temperature over the period 1870–2006 for the Niño 3 (5° S-5° N, 150° W-90° W) and Niño 3.4 (5° S-5° N, 170° W-120° W) regions in the Pacific and the Atlantic 3 region (20° W-0, 3° S-3° N) in the Atlantic Ocean were used as the ENSO and EAM indices. The statistically significant influence of the EAM on the ENSO is noted. The lag time of this influence is estimated at two months. No significant reverse effect is revealed. An increase in the EAM’s influence on the ENSO was observed in the second half of the 20th century.     

Mesoscale wind stress–SST coupling in the Kuroshio extension and its effect on the ocean

Mesoscale perturbations (with a size of 100–1000 km) of wind stress magnitude, divergence and curl in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) are observed to tightly link to those of sea surface temperature (SST), and downwind and crosswind SST gradients, respectively. Based on long-term satellite observational data, their empirical relationships are established, which are further used to represent mesoscale wind stress–SST coupling in an ocean model that is based on the Regional Oceanic Modelling Systems (ROMS). The strength of mesoscale perturbations of wind stress and SST is observed to display a consistent seasonal variability, with the maximum appeared in winter while the minimum appeared in summer. This seasonal variability characteristic is also successfully simulated by ROMS with high resolution. Through comparing two experiments with and without the mesoscale wind stress–SST coupling, it is found that the mesoscale wind stress perturbation (τ _MS) has a negative feedback on SST perturbation (SST_MS). Analyses of sensitivity experiments suggest that the τ _MS acts to inhibit SST_MS mainly by means of surface heat flux. The τ _MS –SST_MS coupling also exerts influences on the ocean mean state and seasonal variability of SST in the KE. The effect of τ _MS on the SST is distinct in autumn and winter when the mesoscale perturbations are most active. Analyses of sensitivity experiments demonstrate that the τ _MS can affect the long term mean SST through either way of surface heat flux or momentum flux.     

Variability of the meridional transport processes in the Southern Ocean and its possible relation to El Niño

The article deals with the influence of wind and atmospheric pressure on the barotropic variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). This effect is studied using a global barotropic model under idealized and realistic atmospheric forcings. The results of barotropic modeling demonstrate that variations in the wind forcing over the ACC, together with the effects of the topography and coastline, lead to the variability in the meridional water flux in the Southern Ocean. The variability of these fluxes is negatively correlated with the wind strength over the ACC. A possible link between the short-period variability of the water flux in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean and El Niño is demonstrated using 3D ocean modeling and correlation analysis. It is shown that the variability of the meridional water flux caused by atmospheric perturbations over the ACC can lead to short-period density anomalies in the Southern Ocean north of 47°S, which later can be transferred to low latitudes by means of the wave mechanism described in [15] and strongly influence the tropical region.     

A comparison of remote vs. local influence of El Niño on the coastal circulation of the northeast Pacific

A set of spatially nested circulation models is used to explore interannual change in the northeast Pacific (NEP) during 1997–2002, and remote vs. local influence of the 1997–1998 El Niño on this region. Our nested set is based on the primitive equations of motion, and includes a basin-scale model of the north Pacific at ∼40-km resolution (NPac), and a regional model of the Northeast Pacific at ∼10-km resolution. The NEP model spans an area from Baja California through the Bering Sea, from the coast to ∼2000-km offshore. In this context, “remote influence” refers to effects driven by changes in ocean velocity and temperature outside of the NEP domain; “local influence” refers to direct forcing by winds and runoff within the NEP domain. A base run of this model using hindcast winds and runoff for 1996–2002 replicates the dominant spatial modes of sea-surface height anomalies from satellite data, and coastal sea level from tide gauges. We have performed a series of sensitivity runs with the NEP model for 1997–1998, which analyze the response of coastal sea level to: (1) hindcast winds and coastal runoff, as compared to their monthly climatologies and (2) hindcast boundary conditions (from the NPac model), as compared to their monthly climatologies. Results indicate penetration of sea-surface height (SSH) from the basin-scale model into the NEP domain (e.g., remote influence), with propagation as coastal trapped waves from Baja up through Alaska. Most of the coastal sea-level anomaly off Alaska in El Niño years appears due to direct forcing by local winds and runoff (local influence), and such anomalies are much stronger than those produced off California. We quantify these effects as a function of distance along the coastline, and consider how they might impact the coastal ecosystems of the NEP.