Increased correlation range of seismicity before large events manifested by earthquake chains

“Earthquake chains” are clusters of moderate-size earthquakes which extend over large distances and are formed by statistically rare pairs of events that are close in space and time (“neighbors”). Earthquake chains are supposed to be precursors of large earthquakes with lead times of a few months. Here we substantiate this hypothesis by mass testing it using a random earthquake catalog. Also, we study stability under variation of parameters and some properties of the chains. We found two invariant parameters: they characterize the spatial and energy scales of earthquake correlation. Both parameters of the chains show good correlation with the magnitudes of the earthquakes they precede. Earthquake chains are known as the first stage of the earthquake prediction algorithm reverse tracing of precursors (RTP) now tested in forward prediction. A discussion of the complete RTP algorithm is outside the scope of this paper, but the results presented here are important to substantiate the RTP approach.     

Short-term earthquake prediction: Current status of seismo-electromagnetics

Loss of human lives as a result of earthquakes is caused overwhelmingly by the collapse of buildings within less than a few minutes of main shocks. The most urgent countermeasure consists of two key elements. One is strengthening of weak structures and the other is short-term earthquake prediction. Short-term prediction needs precursors. Although some promising precursors are reported, the prevailing views in Japan and elsewhere are overly pessimistic. The pessimism largely roots in the fact that short-term precursors are generally non-seismic and tools developed for seismology are not designed to detect them. Nonetheless, nationally funded large-scale earthquake prediction programs always emphasize the need to reinforce seismometer networks. They do not take into account the views of those in the science community who point to the importance of non-seismic precursors. While there are well-founded causes to be skeptical, the situation needs to be improved. One reason for skepticism is that the observations of precursors have not yet been perfect enough and another is that some important fundamental aspects of non-seismic precursors are still unresolved. We review some of these problems.     

东秦岭216.8Ma前一个7级隐爆大地震的震源遗迹

依据野外地质勘查、工程揭露、地球物理探测等事实和地球化学测量资料,发现位于华北板块南缘东秦岭216.8Ma前一个古地震的震源遗迹。结合隐爆角砾岩体、系列隐爆角砾岩、岩石地球化学、同位素示踪、同位素测年、稀土元素、包裹体、岩石微观破碎等特征分析表明,该震源遗迹是在印支晚期杨子板块与华北板块碰撞对接的造山阶段,上地幔或下地壳形成的源于变质火山岩深熔的I型造山带花岗岩浆,在结晶分异过程中产生大量气液流体并沿断裂通道上升,进入硅化封闭的局部断裂空间后形成岩浆分异气液流体压力,当积聚的巨大压力超过所处深度的静岩压力与聚压空间围岩的破裂强度极限后,在地壳深部产生强烈隐爆所形成。根据上覆地层厚度、可参照的深成侵入岩体相对高度对比和主震遗迹的尺度等分析,隐爆深度位于当时地表的10km以下,隐爆主震的面波震级MS＞7.0。该震源遗迹的发现,可初步确认岩浆气液隐爆成因地震存在,并有助于克服一些地震成因研究中的震源不可视与不可入性难题,为地震成因乃至地震预测探索提供一些可直接观测研究的震源实体。 该遗迹不是一般的地震遗迹,而是一个“震源”实体遗迹——震源遗迹,而且是一个具有震源深度、发生年代、地震强度等地震要素完整且一致的可见震源遗迹。     

Tracking pollutants from space: Eight years of IASI satellite observation

The IASI mission flying onboard the MetOp satellites has been providing global observations of the air composition twice a day since 2007. From the atmospheric spectra recorded by the instruments in the thermal infrared spectral range, concentrations of a series of trace gases can be monitored, enhanced levels of pollution can be detected, and particle types can be determined to some extent. This paper recalls the historical context for the IASI remote sensor, reviews its capability to observe some key species for global and regional pollution monitoring, and reports on information services that benefit from the mission.     

Preliminary analysis of thermal anomalies before the 2010 Baja California M7.2 earthquake

This paper presents a preliminary analysis of thermal anomalies before the Baja California M7.2 earthquake occurred on April 4, 2010. The results show that surface air temperature of the Mexicali station, which is the closest one to the epicenter, reaches its maximum value on March 30, which is also the maximum value from January 1 to April 10, 2010. Weather stations far away from the epicenter (100 km away) show no other thermal anomaly. In particular, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Final Operational Global Analysis (NCEP-FNL) air temperature data show a maximum temperature change between March 30 and 31 at the epicenter grid point, while the other surrounding 7199 grid points show medium to low temperature change. The microwave brightness temperature measured by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on board the EOS Aqua satellite (AMSR-E) also shows an increase on March 31. The results of multiple thermal parameters analysis obey well the DTS criterions: deviation (D), time synchronism (T), and space consistency (S), so they can be considered as convincing seismic thermal anomalies. This analysis might contribute to make reliable earthquake predictions.     

Can global rainfall estimates (satellite and reanalysis) aid landslide hindcasting?

Predicting rainfall-induced landslides hinges on the quality of the rainfall product. Satellite rainfall estimates or rainfall reanalyses aid in studying landslide occurrences especially in ungauged areas, or in the absence of ground-based rainfall radars. Quality of these rainfall estimates is critical; hence, they are commonly crosschecked with their ground-based counterparts. Beyond their temporal precision compared to ground-based observations, we investigate whether these rainfall estimates are adequate for hindcasting landslides, which particularly requires accurate representation of spatial variability of rainfall. We developed a logistic regression model to hindcast rainfall-induced landslides in two sites in Japan. The model contains only a few topographic and geologic predictors to leave room for different rainfall products to improve the model as additional predictors. By changing the input rainfall product, we compared GPM IMERG and ERA5 rainfall estimates with ground radar–based rainfall data. Our findings emphasize that there is a lot of room for improvement of spatiotemporal prediction of landslides, as shown by a strong performance increase of the models with the benchmark radar data attaining 95% diagnostic performance accuracy. Yet, this improvement is not met by global rainfall products which still face challenges in reliably capturing spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation events.

     

Evaluation of TRMM rainfall for soil moisture prediction in a subtropical climate

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is a joint space mission between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) designed to monitor and study tropical rainfall. In this study, the daily rainfall from TRMM has been utilized to simulate the soil moisture content up to 30 cm vertical soil profile of at an interval depth of 15 cm by using the HYDRUS 1D numerical model for the three plots. The simulated soil moisture content using ground-based rainfall and TRMM-derived rainfall measurements indicate an agreeable goodness of fit between the both. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency using ground-based and TRMM-derived rainfall was found in the range of 0.90–0.68 and 0.70–0.40, respectively. The input data sensitivity analysis of precipitation combined with different irrigation treatment indicates a high dependency of soil moisture content with rainfall input. The overall analysis reveals that TRMM rainfall is promising for soil moisture prediction in absence of ground-based measurements of soil moisture.     

“数字地球”与“数字地震”

本文参阅了有关资料和文献 ,结合本职工作 ,就“数字地球”、“数字福建”和“数字地震”的概念以及它们之间的关系做了阐述。着重阐述了“数字地震”系统的建立和应用对地震预测、预报和防震减灾工作的意义。     

Projection of lightning over South/South East Asia using CMIP5 models

Physical phenomena observed before strong earthquakes have been reported for centuries. Precursor signals, which include radon anomalies, electrical signals, water level changes and ground lights near the epicenter, can all be used for earthquake prediction. Anomalous negative signals observed by ground-based atmospheric electric field instruments under fair weather conditions constitute a novel earthquake prediction approach. In theory, the abnormal radiation of heat before an earthquake produces fair weather around the epicenter. To determine the near-epicenter weather conditions prior to an earthquake, 81 global earthquake events with magnitudes of 6 or above from 2008 to 2021 were collected. According to Harrison's fair weather criteria, in 81.48% of all statistical cases, the weather was fair 6 h before the earthquake; in 62.96% of all cases, the weather was fair 24 h before the event. Moreover, most of these cases without fair weather several hours before the earthquake were near the sea. Among the 37 inland earthquakes, 86.49% were preceded by 6 h of fair weather, and 70.27% were preceded by fair weather for 24 h. We conclude that the weather near the epicenter might be fair for several hours before a strong earthquake, especially for inland events.

     

中国陆域地震灾害的时空分布格局

通过对近60年来中国陆域地震灾害信息的搜集与整理,建立了1949-2009年中国陆域地震灾害信息数据库,编制了中国5.0级以上地震灾害图谱库.在此基础上,从不同时空尺度定量分析了近60年来中国地震灾害的时空分布格局.研究表明:①近60年来中国累计发生5.0级以上地震灾害1 679次,年代际变化显著,70年代是中国地震灾...     

浅谈地震灾害预报

本文阐述了地震预报与地震灾害预报的相互区别及其相互联系 ,并分析通过自然科学研究与社会科学研究两种途径进行地震灾害预报 ,以达到防震减灾的目的。建议 :加强地震预报与地震灾害预报的管理 ,地震灾害预报只能在具备一定条件的地区进行 ,而不应全面铺开。     

The role and performance of ground-based networks in tracking the evolution of the ozone layer

In the 1980s, ground-based monitoring of the ozone layer played a key role in the discovery of the Antarctic Ozone Hole as well as in the first documentation of significant winter and spring long-term downward trends in the populated mid-latitude regions. The article summarizes the close-to-hundred-year-long history of ground-based measurements of stratospheric ozone, and more recent observations of constituents that influence its equilibrium. Ozone observations began long before the recognition of the impact of increasing emissions of manmade ozone-depleting substances on ozone and therefore on UV levels, human health, ecosystems and the Earth climate. The historical ozone observations prior to 1980s are used as a reference for the assessments of the state of the ozone layer linked to the enforcement of the Montreal Protocol. In this paper, we describe the worldwide monitoring networks and their ozone observations used to determine long-term trends with an accuracy of a few percent per decade. Since 1989, the ground-based monitoring activities have provided support for the amendments of the Montreal Protocol (MP). They include monitoring of (a) the ozone total column and the vertical distribution at global scale, (b) the ozone-depleting substances (ODS) related to the MP such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and their decomposition products in the stratosphere, and (c) the atmospheric species playing a role in ozone depletion, e.g., nitrogen oxides, water vapor, aerosols, polar stratospheric clouds. We highlight important accomplishments in the atmospheric monitoring performed by the Global Atmosphere Watch program (GAW) run under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). We also address the complementary roles of ground-based networks and satellite instruments. High-quality ground-based measurements have been used to evaluate ozone variabilities and long-term trends, assess chemistry climate models, and check the long-term stability of satellite data, including more recently the merged satellite time-series developed for the detection of ozone recovery at global scale, which might be further modified by climate change.     

咸水层CO2地质封存地下利用空间评估方法研究

咸水层CO₂地质封存技术是我国实现碳中和目标的重要支撑技术,也是一项深部地下空间开发利用技术。咸水层CO₂地质封存工程利用的深部地下空间,需要在确定CO₂羽流、扰动边界和经济因素“三级边界”的基础上进行综合评估。以我国唯一的深部咸水层CO₂地质封存项目——国家能源集团鄂尔多斯碳捕集与封存(Carbon Capture and Storage, CCS)示范工程为实例,基于封存场地储层CO₂羽流监测以及扰动边界的推断预测结果综合评估,认为示范工程平面上4个1'×1'经纬度范围可作为地下利用空间平面边界,垂向上以纸坊组顶界(深度约958 m)为地下封存体顶部边界,以深度2 800 m为底板封隔层底界。提出的咸水层CO₂地质封存地下利用空间评估方法,能够为未来封存工程地下利用空间审批与监管提供一定参考,但也需要进一步结合已有法律法规及规模化封存工程实践完善提升。     

Strong ground motion estimation in the Sea of Marmara region (Turkey) based on a scenario earthquake

We perform a broadband frequency bedrock strong ground motion simulation in the Marmara Sea region (Turkey), based on several fault rupture scenarios and a source asperity model. The technique combines a deterministic simulation of seismic wave propagation at low frequencies with a semi-stochastic procedure for the high frequencies. To model the high frequencies, we applied a frequency-dependent radiation pattern model, which efficiently removes the effective dependence of the pattern coefficient on the azimuth and take-off angle as the frequency increases. The earthquake scenarios considered consist of the rupture of the closest segments of the North Anatolian Fault System to the city of Istanbul. Our scenario earthquakes involve the rupture of the entire North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of Marmara, namely the combined rupture of the Central Marmara Fault and North Boundary Fault segments. We defined three fault rupture scenarios based on the location of the hypocenter, selecting a preferred hypocentral location near a fault bend for each case. We analysed the effect of location of the asperity, within the Central Marmara Fault, on the subsequent ground motion, as well as the influence of anelasticity on the high-frequency attenuation characteristics. The fault and asperity parameters for each scenario were determined from empirical scalings and from results of kinematic and dynamic models of fault rupture. We calculated the resulting time series and spectra for ground motion at Istanbul and evaluated the sensitivity of the predictions to choice of model parameters. The location of the hypocenter is thus shown to be a critical parameter for determining the worst scenario earthquake at Istanbul. We also found that anelasticity has a significant effect on the regional attenuation of peak ground accelerations. Our simulated ground motions result in large values of acceleration response spectra at long periods, which could be critical for building damage at Istanbul during an actual earthquake.     

On the spatio-temporal distribution of M 7.0+ worldwide seismicity with a non-parametric statistics

The aim of this paper is to provide some constrains on the time behavior of earthquake generation mechanism, through the usage of a non-parametric statistics that leads up to the empirical estimation of the hazard function. The results indicate that the most characterizing temporal feature for large (M 7.0+) worldwide shallow earthquake occurrence is a clustering lasting few years, indicating that the probability of earthquake occurrence is higher immediately after the occurrence of an event. After that, the process becomes almost time independent, as in a Poisson process. Remarkably, this time clustering is very similar to what previously found for different spatio-magnitude windows, and it does not seem to depend on the tectonic style of the region. This may support the hypothesis of an universal law for earthquake occurrence.     

地震预报现状及未来展望

本文主要收集了国内外地震学者对地震预测现状的论述和对地震能不能预测的争论 ,仅供读者参考。     

Modification of the pattern informatics method for forecasting large earthquake events using complex eigenfactors

Recent studies have shown that real-valued principal component analysis can be applied to earthquake fault systems for forecasting and prediction. In addition, theoretical analysis indicates that earthquake stresses may obey a wave-like equation, having solutions with inverse frequencies for a given fault similar to those that characterize the time intervals between the largest events on the fault. It is therefore desirable to apply complex principal component analysis to develop earthquake forecast algorithms. In this paper we modify the Pattern Informatics method of earthquake forecasting to take advantage of the wave-like properties of seismic stresses and utilize the Hilbert transform to create complex eigenvectors out of measured time series. We show that Pattern Informatics analyses using complex eigenvectors create short-term forecast hot-spot maps that differ from hot-spot maps created using only real-valued data and suggest methods of analyzing the differences and calculating the information gain.     

Study of directivity effect on electromagnetic emissions in the HF band as earthquake precursors: Preliminary results on field observations

This work focuses on the use of electromagnetic emissions (EM) in the HF band as a warning event for earthquakes. EM at HF components 41 MHz and 46 MHz were monitored and recorded from eight field stations in Greece and correlated with seismological events. Directivity effect raised since EM emissions at specific station locations were correlated to earthquake events from prescribed regions. EM recordings during 1999 were used and by visual inspection were associated to most of the earthquake events greater than 5R. Using these observations a novel algorithm based on the ratio of short term to long term signal average, together with a prediction rules set derived from 1999's EM emissions study were developed to combine results from several field stations. Performance of the system was promising, but was dependent on the geographic area of interest. Overall performance for earthquakes events of magnitude greater than 5.7 R was 75% of seismic events were correctly predicted by EM activity, while 25% were not predicted.     

汶川地震滑坡与地震参数及地质地貌因素之间的相关关系

在对汶川地震诱发的典型滑坡进行野外调查和相关资料收集、分析和整理的基础上,对汶川地震滑坡与地震参数及坡度、岩土体特性等地质地貌因素之间的相关关系进行了统计分析。结果表明: (1)汶川地震滑坡主要发生在Ⅶ～Ⅺ烈度区, Ⅵ度及以下烈度区中发生的滑坡较少; (2)汶川地震滑坡主要发生在距震中300km的范围内,且距震中200km的范围内滑坡分布最为集中; (3)汶川地震滑坡的易发斜坡坡度为30～50,其中30～40是汶川地震滑坡发育最为敏感的坡度; (4)汶川地震滑坡主要发生在600～1500m的高程范围内,在600～1000m高程范围内的中低山和丘陵区滑坡分布最为集中; (5)砂泥岩、板岩、片岩、千枚岩等软岩类和土质类岩性是汶川地震滑坡的易发岩性,其次是软硬岩组合类,在统计的47个典型滑坡中,花岗岩、碳酸盐岩等硬岩类中发生的滑坡最少,而且由汶川地震直接导致复活的老滑坡也比较少。