倒数第三次冰消期亚洲季风气候可能的类Younger Dryas事件

对湖北省神农架两个高海拔洞穴(天鹅洞: 海拔1600 m; 永兴洞: 海拔1400 m)石笋实测了7个U-Th年龄、560个氧同位素以及年纹层厚度变化序列. 天鹅洞石笋十年际分辨率δ ¹⁸O曲线十分类似于江苏南京和贵州荔波石笋记录的波令暖期和新仙女木事件基本特征, 表明本区石笋δ ¹⁸O反映了区域性亚洲季风经向环流及其降水变化特征. 相距天鹅洞约70 km的永兴洞石笋高分辨率(平均30 a左右) δ ¹⁸O时间序列揭示了倒数第三次冰消期亚洲季风突变过程. 基于3个U-Th年龄和连续5000 a左右生长纹层计数结果, 在245±5 kaBP左右冰消期识别出一个千年级冷事件. 这一事件持续时间为1371±59 a, 并在74±4 a内快速向间冰期(MIS7e)突变, δ ¹⁸O的变幅达2.30‰, 相当于冰期/间冰期振幅的1/2强. 这些事件特征类似于亚洲季风区石笋δ ¹⁸O记录的新仙女木事件, 说明新仙女木事件不是末次冰消期的一次偶然事件, 很可能是第四纪冰盖、大尺度海洋/大气环流耦合作用的产物.     

极端气候事件综合危险性等级指标构建及近60年来长江流域极端气候综合分析

本文利用经过均一化订正的长江流域共669个气象站近60年(1961—2020年)逐日观测资料,采用相对阈值和绝对阈值相结合的极值分析方法,对长江流域近60年极端高温事件、极端低温事件、极端干旱事件和极端降水事件进行识别,分析了年发生频率和线性变化趋势.在此基础上,考虑到全国极端气候事件发生情况,构建了多个极端气候事件综合危险性等级指标,比较客观地给出了长江流域极端气候事件综合危险性等级.研究结果表明,相对于全国其他地区,长江流域大部分地区极端气候综合危险性等级较高,虽然自1961年以来综合年发生频率呈现弱的线性减少趋势,但自20世纪90年代以来,长江流域极端气候事件发生的危险性相对于全国其他地区明显偏高.通过对不同极端气候事件危险性和变化规律研究,结果表明：长江流域近60年极端干旱事件年发生频率呈现线性减少趋势,与全国他其区域相比较,长江流域大部分地区极端干旱发生的危险性等级都在中级以上,说明长江流域容易发生极端干旱事件;长江流域近60年极端降水事件年发生频率呈现弱的增加趋势,危险性等级指数分析表明,高危险区主要位于长江中下游地区,湖南西部、江西大部、湖北南部等地发生极端降水事件的危险性很高;近60年长江流域大部分地区极端高温事件显著增加,尤其进入21世纪以来发生更加频繁,但相对于全国其他地区,危险性等级较低;近60年长江流域极端低温事件显著减少,但相对于全国其他地区,极端低温事件发生的危险性增加明显.进入21世纪以来,长江流域极端气候事件的综合危险性不断增加,极端高温和极端干旱相伴而生的高温干旱复合型事件频繁发生,极端降水事件和极端低温事件在全国的占比不断升高,造成的社会经济影响越来越严重,说明长江流域加强极端气候事件风险防范的重要性和紧迫性.

     

祁连山东段0.83 Ma以来的构造-气候事件

根据祁连山北麓季风西北边缘区的河流阶地系列和风成黄土的研究, 重建了该区中更新世以来的构造隆升和气候演化历史. 研究发现, 中更新世以来青藏高原的数次隆升事件与本研究区及其他地区的气候记录有一定的耦合性, 发生于0.83和0.14 Ma的构造事件, 可以分别与0.64 Ma时沙漠的显著扩张及沙漠周期性进退的开始、末次冰期以来中国西北的极端干旱相对应. 这些构造-气候耦合事件可能暗示了构造隆升对气候的驱动, 从而反映青藏高原对东亚季风气候系统的重要影响.     

金沉淀的一个可能机理——歧化反应

实验结果指出,在温度小于200℃的本实验条件下,金的溶解种类主要是AuCl_2~-和AuCl_4~-,AuCl_2~-.和AuCl_4~-的关系可用歧化反应式表示为3AuCl_2~-=2Au(s) AuCl_4~- 2Cl~-高的AuCl_2~-浓度有利于(1)式向右进行,logK_1随温度的升高而降低,讨论了通过歧化反应机理形成金矿床的可能性.     

气候突变的聚类分析

气候数据是时间序列,是一类有序样品．本文给出了一种新的有序样品谱系聚类算法,先对数据进行平滑拟合,然后用聚类分析的方法分析了北半球的气候资料,证实了1920年为气候突变点．同时也找到了较低的各个层次上的突变点．     

气候突变的聚类分析

气候数据是时间序列,是一类有序样品．本文给出了一种新的有序样品谱系聚类算法,先对数据进行平滑拟合,然后用聚类分析的方法分析了北半球的气候资料,证实了1920年为气候突变点．同时也找到了较低的各个层次上的突变点．     

震前自然电场的前兆及其可能机理

研究了震前自然电场的前兆及礤可能机理。主要结论：（１）５．４￣６．２级地震在１５０￣２００ｋｍ,７．０￣７．９级地震在２５０ｋｍ范围内自然电场出现前兆;（２）过滤电场、电化学电场、土体受压变密和机电转换可能是自然电场的前兆机理。     

水库地震非线性共振现象的突变模型研究

水库地震是一种复杂的地质运动。许多研究者认为水库地震是在水岩和渗压共同作用下诱发的，本文作者认为这还不能充分解释高震级、高频度的水库地震活动。通过研究发现在水库地震的发生过程中存在非线性共振现象，它和高震级的水库地震的发生有直接关系。本文从尖点突变模型出发解释非线性共振现象的本质，并据此进一步研究水库诱发地震的机理。     

气候突变的子波分析

对气候突变的研究，以往多采用统计方法．本文强调气候是多尺度、多层次的这一观点，并用子波变换方法分析了北半球平均温度资料，进一步证实了１９２０年为气候突变点．同时也找到了较低层次（１０１年尺度，１００年尺度）上的突变点的年代．分析结果较为客观并符合实际．     

气候突变的子波分析

对气候突变的研究,以往多采用统计方法．本文强调气候是多尺度、多层次的这一观点,并用子波变换方法分析了北半球平均温度资料,进一步证实了１９２０年为气候突变点．同时也找到了较低层次（１０１年尺度,１００年尺度）上的突变点的年代．分析结果较为客观并符合实际．     

地球深部研究的复杂性及其对策

地球深部物质组成，结构及其动力过程研究是当今固体地球科学中的前沿与生长点之一。在地质演化进程中，由于不同源的作用使得地球本体错综复杂。大尺度以及中小尺度上，地球内部结构的形态，性质，类型变化很大，地下介质物理与化学属性的不均一性，非线性以及各向异性广泛存在，诸如此类，使得地球深部研究呈为一庞大的复杂系统。     

多尺度突变现象的扫描式t检验方法及其相干性分析

阐明了将检测两子样本平均值之差的学生氏t检验推广到对多尺度突变现象进行扫描式检测的计算方法；对于t检验要求序列独立的限制，引用了初步的订正方法；还给出了检测两个序列间多尺度突变相干性的计算公式.扫描式t检验不仅具有相当于子波变换检测多尺度突变现象的功能，而且解决了子波变换检测突变时缺少临界值的问题.由于t统计量包含有二阶矩均方差，它不能像子波变换那样作为分解工具，但检测的尺度参数也就不必局限于2的整数幂，因而可以进行扫描式检测.应用于尼罗河年最高与最低水位历史序列(AD622-1470)，能较客观和精确地检测出两序列在某些尺度上的相干性(同步或反位相)变化；并由此重新划分了该流域几十年至百余年时间尺度的相对干湿期.结果与目前查阅到的埃及灾荒历史记载相吻合.     

多尺度突变现象的扫描式t检验方法及其相干性分析

阐明了将检测两子样本平均值之差的学生氏t检验推广到对多尺度突变现象进行扫描式检测的计算方法;对于t检验要求序列独立的限制,引用了初步的订正方法;还给出了检测两个序列间多尺度突变相干性的计算公式.扫描式t检验不仅具有相当于子波变换检测多尺度突变现象的功能,而且解决了子波变换检测突变时缺少临界值的问题.由于t统计量包含有二阶矩均方差,它不能像子波变换那样作为分解工具,但检测的尺度参数也就不必局限于2的整数幂,因而可以进行扫描式检测.应用于尼罗河年最高与最低水位历史序列(AD622—1470),能较客观和精确地检测出两序列在某些尺度上的相干性(同步或反位相)变化;并由此重新划分了该流域几十年至百余年时间尺度的相对干湿期.结果与目前查阅到的埃及灾荒历史记载相吻合.     

地球内部物质组成及其性质的研究

地球内部物质组成的研究涉及对地表现象的深入解释,与地球动力学、地球热结构及宇宙演化有着密切的关系.本文综述了这方面的研究结果及近期的进展,指出两种地幔模型的主要分歧点,讨论了地幔中的主要相变及与间断面的关系,对今后研究提出四点意见.     

MODELLING CLIMATE,TOPOGRAPHY AND PALAEOGLACIER FLUCTUATIONS IN THE CHILEAN ANDES

A one-dimensional flowline model has been constructed, tested and applied to two formerly glaciated valley basins within the Chilean Lake District. The vertically integrated ice flow model is similar to those used to study historical fluctuations of European Alpine glaciers and includes terms for internal deformation and basal sliding. In addition, longitudinal deviatoric stresses are computed and velocity terms are correspondingly adjusted. The model is driven through a mass balance term forced by a stepped lowering of the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) through time. Experiments, based on generating equilibrium glacier surface profiles corresponding to various ELAs, indicate that a lowering of at least 1000 m of the ELA from its present-day position is required to simulate the glacial maximum. Furthermore, the specific geometry of the two valleys provides an important control on the extent of the two glaciers, effectively decoupling them from further climatic deterioration once they have advanced beyond the constraining influence of their valleys into the piedmont zone. The tight nesting of terminal moraine loops provides evidence for this topographical control on palaeoglacier extent. The modelled response and sensitivity of the two palaeoglaciers to climate change differ markedly as a result of contrasting valley geometry. Glaciers resting on steeper gradients tend to have thinner profiles, faster mass turnover times and correspondingly shorter volume time-scales. Puyehue glacier has a response time of c. 1000 years whereas the Rupanco glacier has a response time of c. 2000 years. Hence, Puyehue is more sensitive to climatic fluctuations occurring on a time-scale of 500–1000 years. Furthermore, the Rupanco glacier may lag or even fail to respond at all to climatic fluctuations at these time-scales, a conclusion substantiated by field evidence. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

临猗ML5.0级地震前后的重力场变化及预报过程

讨论了气压、地形变、降雨和地下水位变化对重力观测资料的影响,论证了观测资料的可靠程度,在此基础之上结合地质构造,地壳深浅构造等资料,讨论了１９９８年７月１１日临猗地震前后重力场的变化;依据临猗地震前重力场的变化,结合该地区的地震活动性,对这次地震作出了预报。     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE FRESHWATERS OF ARCTIC AND SUBARCTIC NORTH AMERICA

Region 2 comprises arctic and subarctic North America and is underlain by continuous or discontinuous permafrost. Its freshwater systems are dominated by a low energy environment and cold region processes. Central northern areas are almost totally influenced by arctic air masses while Pacific air becomes more prominent in the west, Atlantic air in the east and southern air masses at the lower latitudes. Air mass changes will play an important role in precipitation changes associated with climate warming. The snow season in the region is prolonged resulting in long-term storage of water so that the spring flood is often the major hydrological event of the year, even though, annual rainfall usually exceeds annual snowfall. The unique character of ponds and lakes is a result of the long frozen period, which affects nutrient status and gas exchange during the cold season and during thaw. GCM models are in close agreement for this region and predict temperature increases as large as 4°C in summer and 9°C in winter for a 2 × CO₂ scenario. Palaeoclimate indicators support the probability that substantial temperature increases have occurred previously during the Holocene. The historical record indicates a temperature increase of > 1°C in parts of the region during the last century. GCM predictions of precipitation change indicate an increase, but there is little agreement amongst the various models on regional disposition or magnitude. Precipitation change is as important as temperature change in determining the water balance. The water balance is critical to every aspect of hydrology and limnology in the far north. Permafrost close to the surface plays a major role in freshwater systems because it often maintains lakes and wetlands above an impermeable frost table, which limits the water storage capabilities of the subsurface. Thawing associated with climate change would, particularly in areas of massive ice, stimulate landscape changes, which can affect every aspect of the environment. The normal spring flooding of ice-jammed north-flowing rivers, such as the Mackenzie, is a major event, which renews the water supply of lakes in delta regions and which determines the availability of habitat for aquatic organisms. Climate warming or river damming and diversion would probably lead to the complete drying of many delta lakes. Climate warming would also change the characteristics of ponds that presently freeze to the bottom and result in fundamental changes in their limnological characteristics. At present, the food chain is rather simple usually culminating in lake trout or arctic char. A lengthening of the growing season and warmer water temperature would affect the chemical, mineral and nutrient status of lakes and most likely have deleterious effects on the food chain. Peatlands are extensive in region 2. They would move northwards at their southern boundaries, and, with sustained drying, many would change form or become inactive. Extensive wetlands and peatlands are an important component of the global carbon budget, and warmer and drier conditions would most likely change them from a sink to a source for atmospheric carbon. There is some evidence that this may be occurring already. Region 2 is very vulnerable to global warming. Its freshwater systems are probably the least studied and most poorly understood in North America. There are clear needs to improve our current knowledge of temperature and precipitation patterns; to model the thermal behaviour of wetlands, lakes and rivers; to understand better the interrelationships of cold region rivers with their basins; to begin studies on the very large lakes in the region; to obtain a firm grasp of the role of northern peatlands in the global carbon cycle; and to link the terrestrial water balance to the thermal and hydrological regime of the polar sea. Overall, there is a strong need for basic research and long-term monitoring. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

海洋中和海洋边缘的巨震是调节气候的恒温器之一

人类活动排放二氧化碳气体使全球增温,从而引起极冰融化、海水淹没海边城市以及暴洪和疾病的增加.因而全球增温已成为人们非常关注的问题.     

Southern Ocean deglacial record supports global Younger Dryas

In Northern Hemisphere deglaciation records, the transition from the last glacial to the Holocene indicates a rapid return to near-glacial conditions during the Younger Dryas, whereas their Southern Hemisphere ice core counterparts record two separate cooling events: the Antarctic Cold Reversal and the Oceanic Cold Reversal. Spatial distribution and relative timing of these events in both hemispheres are central for our understanding of causes and mechanisms of abrupt climate change. To date, no marine record from the southern mid-latitudes conclusively demonstrates that the Younger Dryas was a significant event in the Southern Ocean. Here, we present high-resolution oxygen isotope and iron content records of a radiocarbon-dated sedimentary sequence from the Great Australian Bight, which constrains oceanic and atmospheric changes during the last deglaciation. Oxygen isotopes from planktonic foraminifera indicate two rapid cold reversals (between 13.1 and 11.1 kyr BP) separated by a brief warming. The sedimentary iron content, interpreted as a proxy for wind strength, indicates a simultaneous change in atmospheric circulation pattern. Both records demonstrate the existence of cooling events in the Southern Hemisphere, which are synchronous with the Northern Hemisphere Younger Dryas cold reversal (between 12.9 and 11.5 kyr BP). Such evidence for the spatial distribution and timing of abrupt climatic fluctuations is essential data for groundtruthing results derived from global climate models.     

海洋中和海洋边缘的巨震是调节气候的恒温器之一

人类活动排放二氧化碳气体使全球增温 ,从而引起极冰融化、海水淹没海边城市以及暴洪和疾病的增加 .因而全球增温已成为人们非常关注的问题 .本文提出海震调温假说 ,认为海洋巨震可调节气温 :这里的海震包括海洋和海洋边缘地区的巨震 ;巨震是指国际上通常认为的ＭＳ ≥ 734地震 .本文特别强调赤道两侧各 4 0°范围内的 8.5级和大于 8.5级的海震 .1　海震调温机制海震发生时强烈的地震波造成洋底大面积振动 ,并往往引起巨大的地震海啸 .这两种原因都可使海洋深部的冷水迁到海面 ,使水面降温 .众所周知 ,海水降温可吸收较多的二氧化碳 ,从而使…