Short‐term versus medium‐term monitoring for detecting gully‐erosion variability in a Mediterranean environment

This study investigates how medium‐term gully‐development data differ from short‐term data, and which factors influence their spatial and temporal variability at nine selected actively retreating bank gullies situated in four Spanish basin landscapes. Small‐format aerial photographs using unmanned, remote‐controlled platforms were taken at the gully sites in short‐term intervals of one to two years over medium‐term periods of seven to 13 years and gully change during each period was determined using stereophotogrammetry and a geographic information system. Results show a high variability of annual gully retreat rates both between gullies and between observation periods. The mean linear headcut retreat rates range between 0·02 and 0·26 m a^–1. Gully area loss was between 0·8 and 22 m² a^–1 and gully volume loss between 0·5 to 100 m³ a^–1, of which sidewall erosion may play a considerable part. A non‐linear relationship between catchment area and medium‐term gully headcut volume change was found for these gullies. The short‐term changes observed at the individual gullies show very high variability: on average, the maximum headcut volume change observed in 7–13 years was 14·3 times larger than the minimum change. Dependency on precipitation varies but is clearly higher for headcuts than sidewalls, especially in smaller and less disturbed catchments. The varying influences of land use and human activities with their positive or negative effects on runoff production and connectivity play a dominant role in these study areas, both for short‐term variability and medium‐term difference in gully development. The study proves the value of capturing spatially continuous, high‐resolution three‐dimensional data using small‐format aerial photography for detailed gully monitoring. Results confirm that short‐term data are not representative of longer‐term gully development and demonstrate the necessity for medium‐ to long‐term monitoring. However, short‐term data are still required to understand the processes – particularly human activity at varying time scales – causing fluctuations in gully erosion rates. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A comparison of average rates of alluvial erosion between the south‐western and south‐eastern United States

Alluvial channel bed incision and bank widening have been reported in both the south‐western and south‐eastern US throughout the past century. Distinct regional differences in climate and landscape properties likely influence the rate of erosion. This study discusses regional differences in hydraulic driving forces and substrate resistance and tests the hypothesis that regional differences exist in average rates of channel incision, bank erosion, and knickpoint retreat. Specifically, we hypothesize that erosion rates are higher in south‐western US streams and reason that this is because of greater flood magnitudes and limited substrate resistance. A review of the literature documenting incision, bank erosion, and knickpoint retreat, however, indicates that intra‐regional differences are larger than inter‐regional differences and that average rates in the south‐western US are either statistically similar or less than the rates in parts of the south‐eastern US. This could either be a result of strong intra‐regional hydroclimatic and substrate variability or because average erosion rate may not be an appropriate metric for inter‐regional comparisons because of the variability between case studies associated with the field methods to measure erosion, duration of study period, and time since disturbance to the channel. Nevertheless, these findings provide a basis for future evaluations of the relative importance of different controls on driving and resisting forces in these and other landscapes characterized by rapid channel incision and arroyo formation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gully‐head erosion processes on a semi‐arid valley floor in Kenya: a case study into temporal variation and sediment budgeting

A three year monitoring programme of gully‐head retreat was established to assess the significance of sediment production in a drainage network that expanded rapidly by gully‐head erosion on the low‐angled alluvio‐lacustrine Njemps Flats in semi‐arid Baringo District, Kenya. This paper discusses the factors controlling the large observed spatial and temporal variation in gully‐head retreat rates, ranging from 0 to 15 m a^?1. The selected gullies differed in planform and in runoff‐contributing catchment area but soil material and land use were similar. The data were analysed at event and annual timescales. The results show that at annual timescale rainfall amount appears to be a good indicator of gully‐head retreat, while at storm‐event timescale rainfall distribution has to be taken into account. A model is proposed, including only rainfall (P) and the number of dry days (DD) between storms: which explains 56 per cent of the variation in retreat rate of the single‐headed gully of Lam1. A detailed sediment budget has been established for Lam1 and its runoff‐contributing area (RCA). By measuring sediment input from the RCA, the sediment output by channelized flow and linear retreat of the gully head for nine storms, it can be seen that erosion shifts between different components of the budget depending on the duration of the dry period (DD) between storms. Sediment input from the RCA was usually the largest component for the smaller storms. The erosion of the gully head occurred as a direct effect of runoff falling over the edge (GH_waterfall) and of the indirect destabilization of the adjacent walls by the waterfall erosion and by saturation (GH_mass/storage). The latter component (GH_mass/storage) was usually much larger that the former (GH_waterfall). The sediment output from the gully was strongly related to the runoff volume while the linear retreat, because of its complex behaviour, was not. Overall, the results show that the annual retreat is the optimal timescale to predict retreat patterns. More detailed knowledge about relevant processes and interactions is necessary if gully‐head erosion is to be included in event‐based soil erosion models. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long‐term variability of proglacial groundwater‐fed hydrological systems in an area of glacier retreat,Skeiðarársandur,Iceland

Proglacial groundwater‐fed features, such as seeps, substantially impact proglacial geomorphology, hydrology, and ecology. However, there is a paucity of research on the impacts of climate change and glacier retreat on the extent of these important features. This paper aims to investigate the impact of glacier retreat on proglacial groundwater levels and on the extent of groundwater‐fed seeps. Research has taken place in western Skeiðarársandur, the large proglacial outwash plain of Skeiðarárjökull, a retreating temperate glacier in southeast Iceland. Changes in the extent of proglacial groundwater seeps were mapped using historical aerial photographs from 1986, 1997, and 2012. Proglacial groundwater levels were monitored in shallow boreholes between 2000 and 2012. The western margin of Skeiðarárjökull has retreated approximately 1 km beyond its position in 1986. However, this retreat was punctuated by short periods of readvance. The geomorphology and groundwater systems at the site were substantially impacted by the November 1996 jökulhlaup, whose deposits altered approximately 18% of the area of groundwater seeps. The surface areas of groundwater seeps and lakes in the study area have declined by ~97% between 1986 and 2012. Most of the decline took place after 1997, when the mean annual rate of retreat increased three‐fold. Groundwater levels also declined substantially between 2000 and 2012, although this trend varies spatially. The paper provides a conceptual model of the controls on proglacial shallow groundwater systems. Direct impacts of glacier retreat are suggested as the main cause for the declines in proglacial groundwater levels and in the extent of groundwater seeps. These declines are expected to adversely impact sandur ecology. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evolution and degradation of flat‐top mesas in the hyper‐arid Negev,Israel revealed from 10Be cosmogenic nuclides

Mesas are ubiquitous landforms in arid and semiarid regions and are often characterized by horizontal stratified erodible rocks capped by more resistant strata. The accepted conceptual model for mesa evolution and degradation considers reduction in the width of the mesa flat‐top plateau due to cliff retreat but ignores possible denudation of the mesa flat‐top and the rates and mechanism of erosion. In this study we examine mesas in the northeastern hyperarid Negev Desert where they appear in various sizes and morphologies and represent different stages of mesa evolution. The variety of mesas within a single climatic zone allows examination of the process of mesa evolution through time. Two of the four sites examined are characterized by a relatively wide (200–230 m) flat‐top and a thick caprock whereas the other two are characterized by a much narrower remnant flat‐top (several meters) and thinner caprock. We use the concentration of the cosmogenic nuclide ¹⁰Be for: (a) determining the chronology of the various geomorphic features associated with the mesa; and (b) understanding geomorphic processes forming the mesa. The ¹⁰Be data, combined with field observations, suggest a correlation between the width of flat‐top mesa and the denudation and cliff retreat rates. Our results demonstrate that: (a) cliff retreat rates decrease with decreasing width of the flat‐top mesa; (b) vertical denudation rates increase with decreasing width of the flat‐top mesa below a critical value (~60 m, for the Negev Desert); (c) the reduction in the width of the flat‐top mesa is driven mainly by cliff retreat accompanied by extremely slow vertical denudation rate which can persist for a very long time (>10⁶ Ma); and (d) when the width of the mesa decreases below a certain threshold, its rate of denudation increases dramatically and mesa degradation is completed in a short time. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi‐decadal variability of drought risk,eastern Australia

A number of previous studies have identified changes in the climate occurring on decadal to multi‐decadal time‐scales. Recent studies also have revealed multi‐decadal variability in the modulation of the magnitude of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts on rainfall and stream flow in Australia and other areas. This study investigates multi‐decadal variability of drought risk by analysing the performance of a water storage reservoir in New South Wales, Australia, during different climate epochs defined using the Inter‐decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index. The performance of the reservoir is also analysed under three adaptive management techniques and these are compared with the reservoir performance using the current ‘reactive’ management practices. The results indicate that IPO modulation of both the magnitude and frequency of ENSO events has the effect of reducing and elevating drought risk on multi‐decadal time‐scales. The results also confirm that adaptive reservoir management techniques, based on ENSO forecasts, can improve drought security and become significantly more important during dry climate epochs. These results have marked implications for improving drought security for water storage reservoirs. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating a process‐based model for use in streambank stabilization: insights on the Bank Stability and Toe Erosion Model (BSTEM)

Streambank retreat is a complex cyclical process involving subaerial processes, fluvial erosion, seepage erosion, and geotechnical failures and is driven by several soil properties that themselves are temporally and spatially variable. Therefore, it can be extremely challenging to predict and model the erosion and consequent retreat of streambanks. However, modeling streambank retreat has many important applications, including the design and assessment of mitigation strategies for stream revitalization and stabilization. In order to highlight the current complexities of modeling streambank retreat and to suggest future research areas, this paper reviewed one of the most comprehensive streambank retreat models available, the Bank Stability and Toe Erosion Model (BSTEM), which has recently been integrated with several popular hydrodynamic and sediment transport models including the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC‐RAS). The objectives of this paper were to: (i) comprehensively review studies that have utilized BSTEM and report their findings, (ii) address the limitations of the model so that it can be applied appropriately in its current form, and (iii) suggest directions of research that will help make the model a more useful tool in future applications. The paper includes an extensive overview of peer reviewed studies to guide future users of BSTEM. The review demonstrated that the model needs further testing and evaluation outside of the central United States. Also, further development is needed in terms of accounting for spatial and temporal variability in geotechnical and fluvial erodibility parameters, incorporating subaerial processes, and accounting for the influence of riparian vegetation on streambank pore‐water pressure dynamics, applied shear stress, and erodibility parameters. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sea stack formation and the role of abrasion on beach‐mantled headlands

Sea stacks are common and striking coastal landforms, but few details are known about how, how quickly, and under what conditions they form. We present numerical and analytical models of sea stack formation due to preferential erosion along a pre‐existing headland to address these basic questions. On sediment‐rich rocky coasts, as sea cliffs erode and retreat, they produce beach sediment that is distributed by alongshore sediment transport and controls future sea cliff retreat rates. Depending on their width, beaches can encourage or discourage sea cliff erosion by acting either as an abrasive tool or a protective cover that dissipates wave energy seaward of the cliff. Along the flanks of rocky headlands where pocket beaches are often curved and narrow due to wave field variability, abrasion can accelerate alongshore‐directed sea cliff erosion. Eventually, abrasion‐induced preferential erosion can cut a channel through a headland, separating it from the mainland to become a sea stack. Under a symmetrical wave climate (i.e. equal influence of waves approaching the coastline from the right and from the left), numerical and analytical model results suggest that sea stack formation time and plan‐view size are proportional to preferential erosion intensity (caused by, for example, abrasion and/or local rock weakness from joints, faults, or fractures) and initial headland aspect ratio, and that sea stack formation is discouraged when the sediment input from sea cliff retreat is too high (i.e. sea cliffs retreat quickly or are sand‐rich). When initial headland aspect ratio is too small, and the headland is ‘rounded’ (much wider in the alongshore direction at its base than at its seaward apex), the headland is less conducive to sea stack formation. On top of these geomorphic and morphologic controls, a highly asymmetrical wave climate decreases sea stack size and discourages stack formation through rock–sediment interactions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variability in erosion rates related to the state of landscape transience in the semi‐arid Chilean Andes

We quantify erosion rates in the higher sectors of the Huasco Valley, in the Main Cordillera of the semi‐arid Andes of Chile, using elevation differences between three successive geomorphic markers (pediments and paleo‐valleys) and the present day valley. Available Ar‐Ar ages of Neogene pediments are used to estimate mean erosion rates for the three periods (16 to 13 My, 13 to 8 My, and following 8 My). The landscape of the Huasco Valley is in a transient state, as indicated by well‐preserved pediment surfaces in interfluves, valleys deeply incised by fluvial and glacial erosion and scarped head‐valleys that represent the current knickzones. Higher erosion rates (45–75 m/My) are calculated for the more recent period (< 8 My) during which deep incision developed compared to previous periods (6–31 m/My). Quantitative data indicate that glaciers had a much higher erosional capability than fluvial activity in the higher sectors of the Main Cordillera. Comparison with erosion rates calculated in other drainage basins of the Chilean Andes suggests that the variability of erosion rates depends on the landscape's transient erosive state. The landscape's geomorphologic response to the uplift of the Main Cordillera results in the retreat of a knickzone, for which retreat velocity depends on precipitation rate pattern and glacial erosion intensity. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Arctic rockwall retreat rates estimated using laboratory‐calibrated ERT measurements of talus cones in Longyeardalen,Svalbard

Holocene rockwall retreat rates quantify integral values of rock slope erosion and talus cone evolution. Here we investigate Holocene rockwall retreat of exposed arctic sandstone cliffs in Longyeardalen, central Svalbard and apply laboratory‐calibrated electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) to determine talus sediment thickness. Temperature–resistivity functions of two sandstone samples are measured in the laboratory and compared with borehole temperatures from the talus slope. The resistivity of the higher and lower‐porosity sandstone at relevant borehole permafrost temperatures defines a threshold range that accounts for the lithological variability of the dominant bedrock and debris material. This helps to estimate the depth of the transition from higher resistivities of ice‐rich debris to lower resistivities of frozen bedrock in the six ERT transects. The depth of the debris–bedrock transition in ERT profiles is confirmed by a pronounced apparent resistivity gradient in the raw data plotted versus depth of investigation. High‐resolution LiDAR‐scanning and ERT subsurface information were collated in a GIS to interpolate the bedrock surface and to calculate the sediment volume of the talus cones. The resulting volumes were referenced to source areas to calculate rockwall retreat rates. The rock mass strength was estimated for the source areas. The integral rockwall retreat rates range from 0.33 to 1.96 mm yr^–1, and are among the highest rockwall retreat rates measured in arctic environments, presumably modulated by harsh environmental forcing on a porous sandstone rock cliff with a comparatively low rock mass strength. Here, we show the potential of laboratory‐calibrated ERT to provide accurate estimates of rockwall retreat rates even in ice‐rich permafrost talus slopes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Conditional spectrum‐based ground motion selection. Part II: Intensity‐based assessments and evaluation of alternative target spectra

In a companion paper, an overview and problem definition was presented for ground motion selection on the basis of the conditional spectrum (CS), to perform risk‐based assessments (which estimate the annual rate of exceeding a specified structural response amplitude) for a 20‐story reinforced concrete frame structure. Here, the methodology is repeated for intensity‐based assessments (which estimate structural response for ground motions with a specified intensity level) to determine the effect of conditioning period. Additionally, intensity‐based and risk‐based assessments are evaluated for two other possible target spectra, specifically the uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) and the conditional mean spectrum (CMS, without variability).It is demonstrated for the structure considered that the choice of conditioning period in the CS can substantially impact structural response estimates in an intensity‐based assessment. When used for intensity‐based assessments, the UHS typically results in equal or higher median estimates of structural response than the CS; the CMS results in similar median estimates of structural response compared with the CS but exhibits lower dispersion because of the omission of variability. The choice of target spectrum is then evaluated for risk‐based assessments, showing that the UHS results in overestimation of structural response hazard, whereas the CMS results in underestimation. Additional analyses are completed for other structures to confirm the generality of the conclusions here. These findings have potentially important implications both for the intensity‐based seismic assessments using the CS in future building codes and the risk‐based seismic assessments typically used in performance‐based earthquake engineering applications. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Conditional spectrum‐based ground motion selection. Part I: Hazard consistency for risk‐based assessments

The conditional spectrum (CS, with mean and variability) is a target response spectrum that links nonlinear dynamic analysis back to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for ground motion selection. The CS is computed on the basis of a specified conditioning period, whereas structures under consideration may be sensitive to response spectral amplitudes at multiple periods of excitation. Questions remain regarding the appropriate choice of conditioning period when utilizing the CS as the target spectrum. This paper focuses on risk‐based assessments, which estimate the annual rate of exceeding a specified structural response amplitude. Seismic hazard analysis, ground motion selection, and nonlinear dynamic analysis are performed, using the conditional spectra with varying conditioning periods, to assess the performance of a 20‐story reinforced concrete frame structure. It is shown here that risk‐based assessments are relatively insensitive to the choice of conditioning period when the ground motions are carefully selected to ensure hazard consistency. This observed insensitivity to the conditioning period comes from the fact that, when CS‐based ground motion selection is used, the distributions of response spectra of the selected ground motions are consistent with the site ground motion hazard curves at all relevant periods; this consistency with the site hazard curves is independent of the conditioning period. The importance of an exact CS (which incorporates multiple causal earthquakes and ground motion prediction models) to achieve the appropriate spectral variability at periods away from the conditioning period is also highlighted. The findings of this paper are expected theoretically but have not been empirically demonstrated previously. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Block removal and step backwearing as erosion processes on rock shore platforms: a preliminary case study of the chalk shore platforms of south‐east England

Shore platforms frequently exhibit steps or risers facing seaward, landwards or obliquely across‐shore. A combination of soft copy photogrammetry, ortho‐rectification, geo referencing and field measurement of step height are linked in a GIS environment to measure step retreat on chalk shore platforms at sample sites in the south of England over two periods, 1973–2001, 2001–2007. The methods used allow for the identification, delineation and measurement of historic change at high spatial resolution. The results suggest that while erosion of chalk shore platforms by step backwearing is highly variable, it appears to be of similar magnitude to surface downwearing of the same platforms measured by micro‐erosion meters (MEMs) and laser scanning, in a range equivalent to 0·0006 – 0·0050 m y^?1 of surface downwearing. This equates to annual chalk volume loss from the platforms, by the two erosion processes combined, of between 0·0012 m³ m^?2 and 0·0100 m³ m^?2. Results from the more recent years' data suggests that step retreat has variability in both space and time which does not relate solely to climatic variability. The results must be viewed with caution until much larger numbers of measurements have been made of both downwearing and step erosion at higher spatial and temporal resolution. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Defining the floodplain in hydrologically‐variable settings: implications for flood risk management

Flood risk management is an essential responsibility of state governments and local councils to ensure the protection of people residing on floodplains. Globally, floodplains are under increasing pressure from growing populations. Typically, the engineering‐type solutions that are used to predict local flood magnitude and frequency based on limited gauging data are inadequate, especially in settings which experience high hydrological variability. This study highlights the importance of incorporating geomorphological understanding into flood risk management in southeast Queensland (SEQ), an area badly affected by extreme flood events in 2011 and 2013. The major aim of this study is to outline the hydrological and sedimentological characteristics of various ‘inundation surfaces’ that are typical of catchments in the sub‐tropics. It identifies four major inundation surfaces; within‐channel bench [Q ~ 2.33 yr average recurrence interval (ARI)]; genetic floodplain (Q = 20 yr ARI); hydraulic floodplain (20 yr < Q ≤ 200 yr ARI) and terrace (Q > 1000 yr ARI). These surfaces are considered typical of inundation areas within, and adjacent to, the large macrochannels common to this region and others of similar hydrological variability. An additional area within genetic floodplains was identified where flood surfaces coalesce and produce an abrupt reduction in channel capacity. This is referred to here as a Spill‐out Zone (SOZ). The associated vulnerability and risk of these surfaces is reviewed and recommendations made based on incorporating this geomorphological understanding into flood risk assessments. These recommendations recognize the importance to manage for risks associated with flow inundation and sediment erosion, delivery and deposition. The increasing availability of high resolution topographic data opens up the possibility of more rapid and spatially extensive assessments of key geomorphic processes which can readily be used to predict flood risk. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Daily to seasonal cross‐shore behaviour of quasi‐persistent intertidal beach morphology

In this study, an intertidal bar and trough system on the beach of Noordwijk, The Netherlands was monitored over a 15‐month period in order to examine the daily to seasonal sequential cross‐shore behaviour and to establish which conditions force or interrupt this cyclic bar behaviour. The beach morphology (bars and troughs) was classified from low‐tide Argus video images based on surface composition. From the classified images, time series of the landward boundary of the bar and of the trough were extracted. The time series of the alongshore‐averaged boundary positions described sawtooth motion with a period between 1 and 4 months, comprising gradual landward migration followed by abrupt seaward shifts. The abrupt seaward shift appeared to be a morphological reset induced by storm events, which lasted at least 30 h with a large average root‐mean‐square wave height (≥2 m) and offshore surge level (≥0·5 m), and a small trough (<20 m wide) in the pre‐storm beach morphology. The time series of the boundary positions exhibited very little longer (seasonal) scale variability, but somewhat larger smaller (daily) scale variability. The bar boundary was found to be more dynamic than the trough boundary. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A modified monthly degree‐day model for evaluating glacier runoff changes in China. Part I: model development

The retreat of mountain glaciers and ice caps has dominated the rise in global sea level and is likely to remain an import component of eustatic sea‐level rise in the 21st century. Mountain glaciers are critical in supplying freshwater to populations inhabiting the valleys downstream who heavily rely on glacier runoff, such as arid and semi‐arid regions of western China. Owing to recent climate warming and the consequent rapid retreat of many glaciers, it is essential to evaluate the long‐term change in glacier melt water production, especially when considering the glacier area change. This paper describes the structure, principles and parameters of a modified monthly degree‐day model considering glacier area variation. Water balances in different elevation bands are calculated with full consideration of the monthly precipitation gradient and air temperature lapse rate. The degree‐day factors for ice and snow are tuned by comparing simulated variables to observation data for the same period, such as mass balance, equilibrium line altitude and glacier runoff depth. The glacier area–volume scaling factor is calibrated with the observed glacier area change monitored by remote sensing data of seven sub‐basins of the Tarim interior basin. Based on meteorological data, the glacier area, mass balance and runoff are estimated. The model can be used to evaluate the long‐term changes of melt water in all glacierized basins of western China, especially for those with limited observation data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Freshwater flow to the San Francisco Bay‐Delta estuary over nine decades (Part 1): Trend evaluation

The San Francisco Bay‐Delta estuary and its upstream watershed have been highly modified since exploration and settlement by Europeans in the mid‐18th century. Although these hydrologic alterations supported the growth of California's economy to the eighth largest in the world, they have been accompanied by significant declines in native aquatic species and subsequent efforts to reverse these declines through flow management. To inform ongoing deliberations on management of freshwater flows to the estuary, we examined a recent nine‐decade hydrologic record to evaluate seasonal and annual trends in reported Delta outflow. Statistically significant trends were observed in seasonal outflows, with decreasing trends observed in 4 months (February, April, May, and November) and increasing trends observed in 2 months (July and August). Trend significance in early‐to‐mid autumn (September and October) is ambiguous due to uncertainty associated with in‐Delta agricultural water use. In spite of increasing water use over the period examined, we found no statistically significant annual trend in Delta outflow, a result likely due to large inter‐annual variability. Linkages between outflow trends and changes in upstream flows and coincident developments such as reservoir construction and operation, out‐of‐basin imports and exports, and expansion of irrigated agriculture are discussed. To eliminate inter‐annual variability as a factor, change attribution is explored using modelled flows and fixed climatology in a companion paper.     

The rates and spatial patterns of annual riverbank erosion revealed through terrestrial laser‐scanner surveys of the South River,Virginia

Between a.d. 2006 and 2008, we completed annual surveys of two mercury‐contaminated eroding banks, one forested and the other grass covered, along the gravel‐bed, bedrock South River in Virginia. Gridded digital terrain models with a resolution of 0·05 m were created from bank topography data collected using a terrestrial laser scanner. Model comparisons indicate that the forested bank retreated nearly 1 m around two leaning trees, while elsewhere the extent of bank retreat was negligible. On the grassy bank, retreat was controlled by the creation of small overhanging clumps of turf at the top of the bank, their occasional failure, and the ultimate removal of failed debris from the bank toe. Partial autocorrelation analysis of vertically integrated bank retreat demonstrates that bank profile erosion is virtually uncorrelated at horizontal distances greater than about 1 m on both banks, a length scale of approximately half the bank height. This extensive streamwise variability suggests that widely spaced profile data cannot adequately represent bank erosion at these sites. Additional analysis of our comprehensive spatial data also indicates that traditional bank profile surveys with any spacing greater than 1 m would result in measurement errors exceeding 10%, an important conclusion for assessing annual rates of mercury loading into the South River from bank erosion. Our results suggest that three‐dimensional gridded bare‐earth models of bank topography may be required to accurately measure annual bank retreat in similar river systems. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Closed‐form aftershock reliability of damage‐cumulating elastic‐perfectly‐plastic systems

Major earthquakes (i.e., mainshocks) typically trigger a sequence of lower magnitude events clustered both in time and space. Recent advances of seismic hazard analysis stochastically model aftershock occurrence (given the main event) as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with rate that decays in time as a negative power law. Risk management in the post‐event emergency phase has to deal with this short‐term seismicity. In fact, because the structural systems of interest might have suffered some damage in the mainshock, possibly worsened by damaging aftershocks, the failure risk may be large until the intensity of the sequence reduces or the structure is repaired. At the state‐of‐the‐art, the quantitative assessment of aftershock risk is aimed at building tagging, that is, to regulate occupancy. The study, on the basis of age‐dependent stochastic processes, derived closed‐form approximations for the aftershock reliability of simple nonevolutionary elastic‐perfectly‐plastic damage‐cumulating systems, conditional on different information about the structure. Results show that, in the case hypotheses apply, the developed models may represent a basis for handy tools enabling risk‐informed tagging by stakeholders and decision makers. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Coupling patterns between para‐glacial and permafrost degradation responses in Antarctica

The recently deglaciated environments in maritime permafrost regions are usually affected by very active paraglacial processes. Elephant Point is an ice‐free area of 1.16 km2 located in the SW of Livingston island (South Shetland Islands, Antarctica). Between 1956–2010 the retreat of the ice cap covering most part of this island has exposed 17.3% of the land surface in this peninsula. Two geomorphological units were identified in this new ice‐free area: a moraine extending from the western to the eastern coastlines and a relatively flat proglacial surface. The glacier in 1956 sat in contact with the northern slope of the moraine, but its accelerated retreat ‐ in parallel to the warming trend recorded in the Antarctic Peninsula ‐ left these areas free of glacier ice. Subsequently, the postglacial evolution was controlled by the relaxation phase typical of paraglacial systems. The typology and intensity of geomorphological processes show a significantly different dynamics between the southern and northern slopes of the moraine. This pattern is related to the different stage of paraglacial adjustment in both slopes. In the southern side, on coarser sediments, pronival ramparts, debris flows and alluvial fans are distributed, with a low to moderate activity of slope processes. In the northern side, mass wasting processes are extremely active on fine‐grained unconsolidated sediments. Ice‐rich permafrost is being degraded by thermokarst processes. Landslides and mudflows transfer large amounts of sediments down‐slope. The surface affected by retrogressive‐thaw slumps in the moraine has been quantified in 24,172 m2, which accounts for 9.6% of its surface. The abundance of kettle‐lakes is also indicative of the degradation of the ground ice. Paraglacial processes are expected to continue in the moraine and proglacial area in the near future, although their intensity and duration will depend on the magnitude and rate of future climate trends in the northern Antarctic Peninsula. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.