Verification of the multi-chamber model of radioactivity migration in reservoirs

A multi-chamber model of radioactivity migration in reservoirs was developed. It describes transport of radioactive substances in water and in bed sediments taking into account sorbtion of radionuclides on suspended particles. The model provides higher resolution than simplified chamber models do. At the same time, unlike complex two- or three-dimensional dynamic models, it does not require hard-to-obtain data such as detailed data on bathymetry, currents and winds. The model was included into the Sybilla program code that was developed in the framework of the Rosatom project called PRORYV. The model was verified against the observed data on the contamination of the Kiev Reservoir with ¹³⁷Cs in 1986.     

Assessment of concentration of radionuclides in river water and bottom sediments

The results of modeling of ^{89, 90}Sr, ¹³⁷Cs, and ^{239, 240}Pu migration in the Techa River are compared with observed data. It is shown that taking into account of the process of mass exchange between the main stream of a river and underflow is important for adequate modeling of migration and accumulation of radiative substances in a river. It is difficult to obtain results of modeling corresponding to the observed data if the process is neglected. Taking into account the mass exchange is especially important in developing models for long enough rivers that were polluted by radionuclides during long time. Authors believe that, in future, the considered aspects of modeling radioactive substances in rivers can be generalized on chemical polluting substances with similar physical and chemical properties, for example, heavy metals, phenols, etc.     

Analysis of accumulation factor of cesium 137 in bottom sediments of surface water bodies

The accumulation factor of radionuclides in river and water body bottom sediments K is an integral magnitude and depends on many parameters. With a two-compartment migration model (water-bottom sediments) an analytical relation is established for the conditions of a steady-state process of radioactive transfer for calculating K depending on the known parameters of radionuclide migration in the aquatic environment. With a reference to cesium 137 the calculated factor value is found for silty sediments in rivers and water bodies under characteristic summertime parameters of migration. The numerical analysis showed that the coefficient of radionuclide distribution in the water-suspension system and turbidity influence mostly the K value for cesium 137. For the practical use of this coefficient, a scheme of its correction is suggested depending on turbidity. An example of its practical use for calculating cesium 137 in water is considered. The calculated and measured volumetric activity values are intercompared.     

Numerical simulation of heat and mass transport in water bodies

Presented is the numerical simulation of heat and mass transport in complex open channel systems using the mathematical models and numerical methods based on one- and two-dimensional (longitudinal-vertical) equations of shallow water (Saint Venant equations). The models take account of real morphometric and hydraulic characteristics of channels of the water system under consideration. Analyzed are the problems of adequacy of physical and mathematical models. Given are the examples of numerical computations of unsteady flows (hydrodynamic regime and transport of substances) in the open-channel and lake-river systems.     

Regional Oceanic Impact on Circulation and Direct Radiative Effect of Aerosol over East Asia

The Regional Integrated Environmental Model System(RIEMS 2.0) coupled with a chemistry-aerosol model and the Princeton Ocean Model(POM) is employed to simulate regional oceanic impact on atmospheric circulation and the direct radiative effect(DRE) of aerosol over East Asia.The aerosols considered in this study include both major anthropogenic aerosols(e.g.,sulfate,black carbon,and organic carbon) and natural aerosols(e.g.,soil dust and sea salt) .The RIEMS 2.0 is driven by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis II,and the simulated period is from 1 January to 31 December 2006.The results show the following:(1) The simulated annual mean sea-level pressure by RIEMS 2.0 with POM is lower than without POM over the mainland and higher without POM over the ocean.(2) In summer,the subtropical high simulated by RIEMS 2.0 with POM is stronger and extends further westward,and the continental low is stronger than without POM in summer.(3) The aerosol optical depth(AOD) simulated by RIEMS 2.0 with POM is larger in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River than without POM.(4) The direct radiative effect with POM is stronger than that without POM in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and parts of southern China. Therefore,the authors should take account of the impact of the regional ocean model on studying the direct climate effect of aerosols in long term simulation.     

包含正定水汽输送算法改进的MM4中尺度模式与暴雨实例数值试验

暴雨预报是一个既重要又十分困难的问题。水汽条件是产生暴雨的关键，水汽的平流输送在模式的水汽方程中占有重要地位，模式对暴雨的预报能力必然涉及到水汽输送的计算精度问题；本文以著名的中尺度模式ＭＭ４为基础，理论测试和分析为依据，以引入新的正定高精度水汽输送算法作为消除模式水汽负值和改进中尺度模式预报能力的途径，研制了取名为改进的ＭＭ４中尺度模式，该模式除仍保留原ＭＭ４模式的所有功能外，增加了５种水汽输送算法的改进与选择，这５种算法是：１）Ｂ网格二阶守恒中心差（原ＭＭ４平流格式），２）上游差分，３）Ｂｏｔ（２阶），４）Ｂｏｔ（４阶），５）Ｐｒａｔｈｅｒ格式。多个暴雨、台风个例试验表明模式预报能力对水汽输送算法精度有显著的依赖性，采用高精度的水汽输送算法水汽保证正值并提高了模式对暴雨区、降水结构、雨团活动的预报能力。改进水汽输送算法的精度是提高中尺度模式对暴雨预报能力的重要途径。     

大气环境数值模拟研究新进展

近五年来,中国科学院大气物理研究所(简称大气所)在大气环境数值模拟方面取得了丰硕的成果,通过自主发展和引进,建立了完备的多尺度、多成分的大气环境数值模式,包括全球大气化学输送模式、区域和城市空气质量预报模式。大气所利用这些模式研究各种空间尺度上污染物浓度时空分布以及污染物的输送和演变,研究了多种污染过程的成因和污染变化规律,在污染物输送、低对流层臭氧高污染、区域及城市污染等方面取得了很多成果,并对区域或城市空气质量进行业务化实时预报。大气所还拓展了我国大气环境模拟研究的新领域:大气化学资料同化、污染模式集合预报、污染源反演新方法。初步建立了空气质量模式的资料同化系统(分别基于最优插值技术和集合卡曼滤波技术)和多模式集合预报体系,提高了模式预报水平;在污染源反演新方法方面进行了初步的探索。结合我国目前仍然面临着的大气环境问题,对今后大气环境数值模式的发展方向进行了展望。     

A Study of the Impact of the Fukushima Nuclear Leak on East China Coastal Regions

ABSTRACT

The nuclear leak in Fukushima, Japan, which occurred on 11 March 2011, had disastrous impacts in many regions of the northern hemisphere. In this study, a highly resolved, one-way nesting model incorporating tides is set up with the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to simulate and predict the potential impact of the disaster on the East China Sea (ECS), with the large domain covering the entire North Pacific. Of the four main waterways, namely Taiwan Strait, the waterway east of Taiwan, Tokara Strait, and Tsushima Strait, the first two have net fluxes of radionuclides into the ECS, while the other two have net outward transport during the entire 14-year period of the simulation (2011–2025). Differing from previous studies, we have taken into account background radionuclides in this model; the results agree well with available observations. Based on the simulation, the radioactive material has arrived in the ECS. The amount will reach its peak in 2019 and late in 2021 will return to its original state before the accident. Temporally it has a clear seasonal variability, with peaks usually appearing during winter. Spatially it is not homogeneously distributed, and the concentration has local maxima along the coasts of Jiangsu and Zhejiang, which are the most populous regions of China; a conspicuous feature is the Subei Bank high in summer. This study is expected to help form policy for rapid response to such disasters.     

Mesoscale convection from a large-scale perspective

This essay concerns precipitating convective cloud systems and convectively-driven mesoscale circulations (“mesoscale convection”) and their role in the large-scale structure of the atmosphere. Mesoscale convection is an important and ubiquitous process on scales of motion spanning a few kilometers to many hundreds of kilometers. It plays a role in the input of energy to the climate system through the radiative effect of upper-tropospheric cloud and water vapor, and enhanced surface fluxes. This is in addition to its important effect on energy, heat and momentum transport within the atmosphere. However, mesoscale convection is neither parameterized nor adequately resolved in atmospheric general circulation models. Its representation in mean-flow terms raises issues that are quite distinct from classical approaches to sub-grid scale convection parameterization.Cloud-resolving modeling and theoretical concepts pertinent to the transport properties and mean-flow effects of organized convection are summarized, as are the main convective parameterization techniques used in global models. Two principal themes that are relevant to the representation of organized mesoscale systems are discussed. First, mesoscale transports and their sub-grid scale approximation with emphasis on dynamical approaches. Second, long time-scale modeling of mesoscale cloud systems that involves the collective effect of convection, boundary and surface layers, radiation, microphysics acting under the influence of large-scale forcing.Finally, major research programs that address the role of precipitating convection and mesoscale processes in global models are summarized.     

南海及邻近海区海况季节变化的模拟

文中使用改进的美国普林斯顿大学区域海洋环流模式 (POM)对南海及邻近海区海况季节变化特征进行了数值模拟 ,所得的主要结果与海洋观测及已有的一些研究结果相吻合。模拟结果表明 :1～ 1 2月 ,黑潮南海分支是南海北部的一支重要海流 ;黑潮右侧的大尺度反气旋性暖涡全年都存在。在所模拟的海区中 ,南海海区表层海流受季风影响最大 ,季节变化最明显示。改进的 POM对海温的季节变化特征也有较好的模拟能力 ,能再现西南季风爆发前后 ,南海及邻近海区表层海温的突增和暖水区的北推过程 ,以及东北季风开始前后 ,海温的下降过程。这为以后发展区域海气耦合模式奠定了基础。     

Estimating daily pan evaporation using adaptive neural-based fuzzy inference system

Estimation of evaporation is important for water planning, management, and hydrological practices. There are many available methods to estimate evaporation from a water surface, comprising both direct and indirect methods. All the evaporation models are based on crisp conceptions with no uncertainty element coupled into the model structure although in daily evaporation variations there are uncontrollable effects to a certain extent. The probabilistic, statistical, and stochastic approaches require large amounts of data for the modeling purposes and therefore are not practical in local evaporation studies. It is therefore necessary to adopt a better approach for evaporation modeling, which is the fuzzy sets and adaptive neural-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) as used in this paper. ANFIS and fuzzy sets have been evaluated for its applicability to estimate evaporation from meteorological data which is including air and water temperatures, solar radiation, and air pressure obtained from Automated GroWheather meteorological station located near Lake E?irdir and daily pan evaporation values measured by XVIII. District Directorate of State Hydraulic Works. Results of ANFIS and fuzzy logic approaches were analyzed and compared with measured daily pan evaporation values. ANFIS approach could be employed more successfully in modeling the evaporation process than fuzzy sets.     

Episode Simulation of Asian Dust Storms with an Air Quality Modeling System

A dust deflation module was developed and coupled with the air quality modeling system RAMS-CMAQ to simultaneously treat all the major tropospheric aerosols（i.e.,organic and black carbons,sulfate,nitrate, ammonia,soil dust,and sea salt）.Then the coupled system was applied to East Asia to simulate Asian dust aerosol generation,transport and dry/wet removal processes during 14-25 March 2002 when two strong dust storms occurred consecutively.To evaluate model performance and to analyze the observed features of dust aerosols over the East Asian region,model results were compared to concentrations of suspended particulate matter of 10μm or less(PM₁₀;1-h intervals) at four remote Japanese stations and daily air pollution index （API） values for PM₁₀ at four large Chinese cities.The modeled values were generally in good agreement with observed data,and the model reasonably reproduced two dust storm outbreaks and generally predicted the dust onset and cessation times at each observation site.In addition,hourly averaged values of aerosol optical thickness（AOT） were calculated and compared with observations at four Aerosol Robotic Network （AERONET） stations to assess the model’s capability of estimating dust aerosol column burden.Analysis shows that modeled and observed AOT values were generally comparable and that the contribution of dust aerosols to AOT was significant only with regard to their source regions and their transport paths.     

气象代码过渡及其对气象业务的影响

针对气象观测资料的代码过渡计划，简要介绍了气象代码的表示方法、WMO代码过渡实施方案及我国气象代码过渡的实施设想；着重分析了气象代码过渡阶段将对我国现有气象业务系统（包括观测系统、通讯传输系统和数据应用系统）所产生的影响，并提出了如何避免或减轻这种影响的一些思路和应对措施。     

2010年7~8月东北地区暴雨过程的水汽输送特征分析

本文根据影响天气系统和雨带位置的不同将2010年7~8月东北地区出现的22个暴雨日划分成了三类暴雨,在以欧拉方法分析了各类暴雨的水汽输送和收支的基础上,利用基于拉格朗日方法的轨迹模式(HYSPLIT v4.9),模拟计算了各类暴雨的水汽输送轨迹、主要通道以及不同源地的水汽贡献。结果表明,影响暴雨的水汽输送通道有三支,一支是沿西太平洋副高边缘东南气流的水汽输送,另一支是起源于南海北部向北偏东气流的水汽输送,第三支是西风带西北气流的水汽输送。第一类暴雨中,来自于西太平洋通道和南海通道的水汽输送大体相当,均很重要,两者可以占总水汽输送的87.4%。第二类暴雨中,水汽输送路径偏东,西太平洋通道的水汽输送贡献可达近70%。第三类暴雨中,虽然西太平洋通道水汽输送仍占主导地位,但北方通道的水汽输送也变得不可忽视。西太平洋通道的水汽沿途损失较小,并主要被输送到东北地区850 hPa及以下的大气之中,而南海通道的水汽沿途损失较多,与北方通道的水汽一样,主要被输送到东北地区850 hPa以上的大气之中。     

Impact of the moisture transport formulation on the simulated tropical rainfall in a general circulation model

The impact of numerical modeling of moisture transport on the simulation of the seasonal mean pattern of precipitation in the tropics is studied. The NCAR CCM2 with spectral and semi-Lagrangian moisture transport has been used for this purpose. The differences in the numerical modeling of moisture transport are found to have a significant impact on the simulation of the seasonal mean patterns. The major differences while using the spectral method (vis-a-vis the semi-Lagrangian method) are (1) a decrease in rainfall over the Indian monsoon region, (2) a decrease in rainfall over the west Pacific region and (3) an increase in rainfall over the central and east Pacific regions. There are substantial differences in the amount of precipitable water vapor simulated by the two moisture transport techniques. It is shown that the difference in precipitable water vapor between the two simulations is associated with changes in the vertical moist static stability (VMS) of the atmosphere, and differences in the simulated precipitation patterns. Received: 7 August 1998 / Accepted: 15 October 1999     

Atmospheric water vapor flux,bifurcation of the thermohaline circulation,and climate change

Latitudinal heat transport in the ocean and atmosphere represents a fundamental process of the Earth's climate system. The ocean component of heat transport is effected by the thermohaline circulation. Changes in this circulation, and hence latitudinal heat transport, would have a significant effect on global climate. Paleoclimate evidence from the Greenland ice cores and deep sea sediment cores suggests that during much of glacial time the climate system oscillated between two different states. Bimodal equilibrium states of the thermohaline circulation have been demonstrated in climate models. We address the question of the role of the atmospheric hydrological cycle on the global thermohaline circulation and the feedback to the climate system through changes in the ocean's latitudinal heat transport, with a simple coupled ocean-atmosphere energy-salt balance model. Two components of the atmospheric hydrological cycle, i.e., latitudinal water vapor transport and the net flux of water vapor from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean appear to play separate roles. If the inter-basin transport is sufficiently large, small changes in water vapor transport over the North Atlantic can effect bifurcation or a rapid transition between two different equilibria in the global thermohaline circulation; maximum difference between the modes occurs in the North Atlantic. If the inter-basin transport is from the Pacific to the Atlantic and sufficiently large, latitudinal vapor transport in the North Pacific controls the bifurcations, with maximum changes occurring in the North Pacific. For intermediate values of inter-basin transport, no rapid transitions occur in either basin. In the regime with vapor flux from the Atlantic to the Pacific, the on mode has strong production of deep water in the North Atlantic and a large flux of heat to the atmosphere from the high latitude North Atlantic. The off mode has strong deep water production in the Southern Ocean and weak production in the North Pacific. Heat transport into the high latitude North Atlantic by the ocean is reduced to about 20% of the on mode value. For estimated values of water vapor transport for the present climate the model asserts that while water vapor transport from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean is sufficiently large to make the North Atlantic the dominant region for deep water production, latitudinal water vapor transport is sufficiently low that the thermohaline circulation appears stable, i.e., far from a bifurcation point. This conclusion is supported to some extent by the fact that the high latitude temperature of the atmosphere as recorded in the Greenland ice cores has changed little over the last 9000 years.     

Assessment of possible mechanisms of decreasing <Superscript>137</Superscript>Cs concentrations in river waters affected by the Chernobyl NPP accident

The analysis of possible mechanisms of ¹³⁷Cs concentration changes in surface waters was performed in the process of preparation of reliable long-range forecasts of radioactive river contamination after the Chernobyl accident. The following mechanisms were considered: (1) radioactive decay; (2) advective transport with river waters; (3) irreversible sorption; (4) vertical migration deep into bottom sediments due to diffusion; (5) burial in clean bottom sediments. The data published on ¹³⁷Cs monitoring at Dobrush, on the Iput’ River in Belarus were used in the analysis. It is shown that the best agreement with the experimental results is achieved when the second, third, and fifth mechanisms are used in calculations. However, a dominating mechanism still cannot be chosen at the present stage of our study. Most probably, all of these mechanisms act simultaneously.     

Impact of carbonaceous aerosol emissions on regional climate change

The past and future evolution of atmospheric composition and climate has been simulated with a version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The system consists of the atmosphere, including a detailed representation of tropospheric aerosols, the land surface, and the ocean, including a model of the marine biogeochemistry which interacts with the atmosphere via the dust and sulfur cycles. In addition to the prescribed concentrations of carbon dioxide, ozone and other greenhouse gases, the model is driven by natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic aerosol), and by emissions of mineral dust, sea salt, sulfur, black carbon (BC) and particulate organic matter (POM). Transient climate simulations were performed for the twentieth century and extended into the twenty-first century, according to SRES scenario A1B, with two different assumptions on future emissions of carbonaceous aerosols (BC, POM). In the first experiment, BC and POM emissions decrease over Europe and China but increase at lower latitudes (central and South America, Africa, Middle East, India, Southeast Asia). In the second experiment, the BC and POM emissions are frozen at their levels of year 2000. According to these experiments the impact of projected changes in carbonaceaous aerosols on the global mean temperature is negligible, but significant changes are found at low latitudes. This includes a cooling of the surface, enhanced precipitation and runoff, and a wetter surface. These regional changes in surface climate are caused primarily by the atmospheric absorption of sunlight by increasing BC levels and, subsequently, by thermally driven circulations which favour the transport of moisture from the adjacent oceans. The vertical redistribution of solar energy is particularly large during the dry season in central Africa when the anomalous atmospheric heating of up to 60 W m⁻² and a corresponding decrease in surface solar radiation leads to a marked surface cooling, reduced evaporation and a higher level of soil moisture, which persists throughout the year and contributes to the enhancement of precipitation during the wet season.     

Fresh water balance of the Gulf Stream system in a regional model study

 We investigate the dependence of surface fresh water fluxes in the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current (NAC) area on the position of the stream axis which is not well represented in most ocean models. To correct this shortcoming, strong unrealistic surface fresh water fluxes have to be applied that lead to an incorrect salt balance of the current system. The unrealistic surface fluxes required by the oceanic component may force flux adjustments and may cause fictitious long-term variability in coupled climate models. To identify the important points in the correct representation of the salt balance of the Gulf Stream a regional model of the northwestern part of the subtropical gyre has been set up. Sensitivity studies are made where the westward flow north of the Gulf Stream and its properties are varied. Increasing westward volume transport leads to a southward migration of the Gulf Stream separation point along the American coast. The salinity of the inflow is essential for realistic surface fresh water fluxes and the water mass distribution. The subpolar–subtropical connection is important in two ways: The deep dense flow from the deep water mass formation areas sets up the cyclonic circulation cell north of the Gulf Stream. The surface and mid depth flow of fresh water collected at high northern latitudes is mixed into the Gulf Stream and compensates for the net evaporation at the surface. Received: 19 September 2000 / Accepted: 5 February 2001