2007：气候变化年

从气候变化的角度看,2007年是具有里程碑意义的一年。无论从科学领域的最新研究成果,还是到人们的切身感受,或者到国际社会讨论的焦点问题以及应对气候变化的具体行动,2007年都将当之无愧地成为"气候变化年"。     

Air-sea fluxes: 25 years of progress

During the past quarter century the study of air-sea interaction has evolved from a small branch of marine climatology to play a key role in the modelling of the coupled system of ocean and atmosphere. Knowledge of air- sea fluxes has grown, based on Monin-Obukhov similarity theory for surface boundary layers and on direct and indirect techniques of measuring the fluxes. This has been the basis for providing boundary conditions needed to couple atmospheric and oceanic circulation models that are used to forecast weather and climate. An overview of current understanding is followed by a discussion of parameterisation schemes and a chronicle of some of the experimental work that has tested theories and quantified their conclusions.     

全球变暖趋缓研究进展

近十几年来,全球年平均表面温度上升趋势显示出停滞状态,即全球变暖趋缓,这引起了国际社会的广泛关注,同时也引发了对全球变暖的质疑,各国气候学家正努力就全球变暖趋缓的事实、原因及其可能影响展开研究。本文综述了目前国内外对全球变暖趋缓的研究结果。多数科学家认可近十几年来全球变暖停滞的事实,并认为太阳活动处于低位相、大气气溶胶（自然和人为）增加以及海洋吸收热量是变暖停滞的可能影响因子,其中海洋（尤其是700米以下的深海）对热量的储存可能是变暖停滞的关键。国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段中的模式并未精确地描述各种有利降温影响因子的近期位相演变,因而其模拟的近期增暖趋势较观测偏强。由此推断,变暖停滞主要是自然因素造成的,并且预测变暖趋缓将在近几年或几十年内结束（依赖于太平洋年代际振荡的位相转变）,未来气温将仍主要受到温室气体增加的影响而表现出明显的上升趋势。因此,目前的全球变暖趋缓不大可能改变到本世纪末全球大幅度变暖带来的风险。本综述展望未来的研究热点包括:精确估算全球气温和海洋热含量的变率及其不确定性,海洋年代际信号（太平洋以及大西洋的年代际振荡）的转型机制,存储在深海的热量将在何时返回海洋表面及其对区域气候的潜在影响。     

2007：气候变化年

 从气候变化的角度看,2007年是具有里程碑意义的一年。无论从科学领域的最新研究成果,还是到人们的切身感受,或者到国际社会讨论的焦点问题以及应对气候变化的具体行动,2007年都将当之无愧地成为"气候变化年"。     

CLIMBER-2: a climate system model of intermediate complexity. Part II: model sensitivity

 A set of sensitivity experiments with the climate system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 was performed to compare its sensitivity to changes in different types of forcings and boundary conditions with the results of comprehensive models (GCMs). We investigated the climate system response to changes in freshwater flux into the Northern Atlantic, CO₂ concentration, solar insolation, and vegetation cover in the boreal zone and in the tropics. All these experiments were compared with the results of corresponding experiments performed with different GCMs. Qualitative, and in many respects, quantitative agreement between the results of CLIMBER-2 and GCMs demonstrate the ability of our climate system model of intermediate complexity to address diverse aspects of the climate change problem. In addition, we used our model for a series of experiments to assess the impact of some climate feedbacks and uncertainties in model parameters on the model sensitivity to different forcings. We studied the role of freshwater feedback and vertical ocean diffusivity for the stability properties of the thermohaline ocean circulation. We show that freshwater feedback plays a minor role, while changes of vertical diffusivity in the ocean considerably affect the circulation stability. In global warming experiments we analysed the impact of hydrological sensitivity and vertical diffusivity on the long-term evolution of the thermohaline circulation. In the boreal and tropical deforestation experiments we assessed the role of an interactive ocean and showed that for both types of deforestation scenarios, an interactive ocean leads to an additional cooling due to albedo and water vapour feedbacks. Received: 28 May 2000 / Accepted: 9 November 2000     

Uncertainties of estimates of climatic change: A review

While climate modeling gives substantial information about the future climate, there are still many uncertainties. This review addresses the question of the response of the climate system to forcing by increasing atmospheric trace gases. The uncertainties of greatest concern are: the transient adjustment controlled by ocean heat uptake; the cover of snow and ice in high latitudes; the change in cloud radiative properties; and shifts in regional patterns connected to the ocean and land surfaces and to the internal dynamics of the atmosphere.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Special Issue Introduction: Adding insult to injury: Climate change and the inequities of climate intervention

Climate change will injure vulnerable communities. In response, coordinated global action has emerged to mitigate climate change, to gauge and map climate-related risks, and to plan for adaptation, which in turn has opened new avenues of funding, power, knowledge and opportunity. The identification of climate risks, analysis and diffusion of ‘impact’ scenarios, incorporation of carbon into economic regimes, and interventions to enhance adaptive capacity will necessarily be experienced differently by different groups. As climate-related crises produce winners and losers, so may discourses and plans made to avert such crises. In the process both the bio-physical events and the social responses shape and reshape social stratification and the distribution of risk. They produce new inequalities and needs for new kinds of responses to guard against injustice. From the emergence of desalination water projects and contested water access, to relocation planning in the Arctic and the South Pacific due to sea-level rise, to increasingly centralized forest management; mitigation and adaptation responses and interventions create their own critical outcomes. This essay and the articles in this special issue examine some new opportunities and risks associated with climate-change discourses and interventions. This special issue shows that vulnerable communities may be at risk of material injury following climate change or climate change intervention; and, be further insulted and injured by lack of representation and recognition, and by misrecognition as simplified, stereotyped victims in local, national and international climate conversations. Using a mixture of theoretical insight and case study research, this collection of articles explores the injuries of climate change as it applies to both direct physical stress scenarios and exposure to adaptation and mitigation policies and planning, as well as the discursive insults of being discounted, stereotyped, or ignored.