Identification of hazard conditions for mudflow occurrence by hydrological model: Application of FLaIR model to Sarno warning system

Mathematical models for forecasting landslides and mudflow movements triggered by heavy rainfalls are useful tools to develop warning systems and hazard mitigation strategy for loss reduction.

In the present paper, an application of Forecasting of Landslides Induced by Rainfalls (FLaIR) hydrological model, correlating the rainfall amount and landslide or mudflow movement occurrences, will be performed. Model application presented here refers to the mudflows of Sarno, Southern Italy, and is based on hourly precipitation data available from a real-time rain gauge installed immediately after the catastrophic event that occurred on May 1998.

The application is extended from October 1998 to May 2002. The main objective is to perform a backanalysis in order to verify the reliability of the proposed scheme for use in a warning system.

Among the most interesting results of the application, the relatively few false alarms for populations given by the model may be highlighted.

The FLaIR model is more useful when it is integrated with a probabilistic model for forecasting precipitation depths during a storm event at an hourly scale. By stochastic modelling of hourly precipitation, it is possible to estimate the probability of reaching the alarm threshold before allowing civil protection actions.     

三维可视化及物探新技术在矿山接替资源勘查中的应用——以铜陵狮子山矿田为例

在矿山发现和勘查过程中往往积累了大量地质、物探等资料,随着地质体三维可视化和物探新处理方法的发展,利用这些方法对已有资料进行深度挖掘与开发可以提炼出新的有利找矿的信息,避免工作量的重复投入,可为矿山接替资源勘查提供有力的技术支持.本研究以铜陵狮子山矿田为例,收集了其勘探阶段积累下来的地质钻探及物探资料,采用地质体三维可视化建模技术对这些资料进行了二次处理,建立了冬瓜山铜矿的三维矿床模型.在可视化环境下,分析了矿体与各成矿地质要素之间的关系,结合新处理方法对已有重磁资料再处理获取的信息,圈定出了寻找同类矿床的靶区一前冲靶区,并采用EH-4等物探方法进行了验证,通过钻探验证表明,采用三维可视化、物探处理新方法对已有资料进行深度挖掘与开发,不但可以为矿山接替资源勘查提供找矿信息,还能节约大量时间和资金.