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1.
全球气候变暖背景下登陆我国台风特征的分析 总被引:38,自引:4,他引:38
利用1949-2002年西北太平洋热带气旋、登陆我国台风和全球地面温度资料,对登陆我国台风的频数、强度以及登陆位置的年际变化,特别是趋势特征进行了分析,并与西北太平洋台风的变化特征作了对比。结果表明:在全球气候变暖背景下,我国登陆台风频数的减少趋势没有西北太平洋台风频数的减少趋势强;登陆台风的平均强度和极端强度均有减弱趋势,极端强度的减弱趋势尤为明显,但其强度弱于西北太平洋台风。在1968-2002年全球明显增暖时段,我国台风登陆位置偏向我国中部,西北太平洋台风在生命史中强度达最强时的位置有向北移动的趋势。 相似文献
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近120年西北太平洋及其登陆中国的热带气旋统计分析 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
通过对近120年,西北太平洋热带气旋总数和登陆中国的热带气旋的统计分析,得到西北太平洋形成热带气旋和登陆中国的热带气旋的一些统计特征,同时对其活动特征也进行了分析. 相似文献
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西北太平洋和南海热带气旋的气候特征分析 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
对1949—2005年共57年西北太平洋上和南海中心风速≥8级的热带气旋活动的若干特征进行了统计学分析,结果表明:57年在西北太平洋和南海热带气旋年平均发生频数为27.47个,登陆我国年平均数6.89个,近10年发生和登陆频数处于57年的低值区;7—9月是发生和登陆我国最多的月份,华南沿海是登陆最频繁的区域。我国东北地区、华北、黄淮、江淮、江南、华南和西南地区东部均可出现TC暴雨,高频区在东南沿海地区,中心在海南和广东东部沿海,次频中心位于广西沿海和福建东南部沿海。此分析可为登陆热带气旋的暴雨预报提供气候背景。 相似文献
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2008年西北太平洋热带气旋活动特征分析 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
对2008年西北太平洋及我国南海热带气旋的活动特征进行总结,并从多方面分析其成因.结果指出:2008年西北太平洋热带气旋活动的主要特征为生成总数少,源地集中,位置偏西;登陆数多、时间早;登陆地点偏南、时间集中等.其原因主要在于:在热带气旋的多发期副热带高压面积偏大、强度偏强、西伸脊点异常偏西,且脊线偏南,造成西北太平洋热带地区盛行偏东风,不利于热带扰动的生成和发展;同时,也使得在其南侧生成的热带气旋易在偏东气流的引导下登陆我国南方.另外,季风槽、垂直风切变、海表温度和热带辐合带上的对流活动等因子的异常分布都不利于热带气旋在西北太平洋东部海域生成,直接导致这一年热带气旋生成总数明显偏少,源地显著偏西. 相似文献
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1994年西北太平洋(包括南海)共生成热带气旋37个(包括:台风、强热带风暴和热带风暴),其中19个发展成台风。有12个热带气旋在我国登陆,比常年(9.3个)偏多。9417号台风在浙江登陆,对浙江影响很大。另外,125°E以西近海北上的热带气旋有3个较常年略偏多,明显多于去年,对浙江沿海影响较大。热带气旋路径以中低纬西,西北行,中纬北上转向型为主。登陆我国的热带气旋位置比常年偏北。 相似文献
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2006年西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数和源地异常的成因分析 总被引:6,自引:2,他引:4
根据西北太平洋编号台风资料、Hadley中心的SST资料和NCAR/NCEP的再分析资料,对2006年西北太平洋热带气旋活动特点进行分析,就台风季热带气旋的活动特征和成因进行研究。(1) 海表温度的异常引起的沃克环流异常造成了2006年热带气旋频数相对于多年平均偏少。(2) 越赤道气流强并且有较好对流匹配的区域易生成热带气旋。较强的对流运动,良好的越赤道气流、环流条件和切变条件的匹配是2006年8月较其它月份生成较多热带气旋的原因。(3) 异常东南风环流有利于引导生成的热带气旋以西北路径西行进入我国沿海并登陆。异常西风环流不利于热带气旋向西运动登陆我国。(4) 垂直风切变异常太大,不利于气旋生成和发展。 相似文献
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2006年全球重大天气气候事件概述 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
2006年,全球气候持续偏暖,是有器测气象记录以来的第六暖年。一次厄尔尼诺事件于2006年8月开始形成。1月,强寒潮和暴风雪袭击欧洲大部地区和日本。夏季,美国和欧洲的大部地区,中国局部地区均遭遇高温热浪天气。年内,全球各地遭受不同程度的干旱和洪涝灾害,其中美国南部和澳大利亚东南部出现严重干旱,东非地区先旱后涝,亚洲南部和南美西北部暴雨频繁。2006年,西北太平洋热带风暴和台风活动频次较常年偏少,但具有强度强、影响范围广、灾害重的特点。2006年,大西洋飓风期的热带风暴活动次数接近历史同期水平,北太平洋东部飓风期的热带风暴活动次数超过历史同期水平。 相似文献
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Tropical cyclone track and intensity prediction: The generation and assimilation of high-density, satellite-derived data 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
J. F. Le Marshall L. M. Leslie R. F. Abbey Jr. L. Qi 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2002,80(1-4):43-57
Summary The impact of recent scientific and technological advances in tropical cyclone track, intensity and structure modeling is
discussed. Since the early 1990s, developments have occurred in remote sensing, data assimilation procedures, numerical models
and high performance computing. In particular, there is now quasi-continuous high spatial and temporal resolution data coverage
over the previously data-sparse oceans where tropical cyclones spend most of their life cycles. There has been a rapid development
of data assimilation methodologies capable of using these data to initialize high-resolution prediction models. Model developments
have reached a stage of maturity where the representation of many of the physical processes necessary for improved tropical
cyclone track and intensity prediction are now included. Finally, available computer power has reached the teraflop range.
Most operational centers have high performance computers capable of tropical cyclone modeling at resolutions necessary for
skillful track and intensity simulations.
This article focuses on combining all of the above developments in a tropical cyclone data analysis and prediction system.
The system has produced statistically significant reductions in the mean forecast error statistics for tropical cyclone track
predictions and resulted in far more realistic simulations of tropical cyclone intensity and structure. A large number of
tropical cyclones have been modeled, with emphasis on those classified as being “difficult” storms to predict accurately.
These difficult storms are most responsible for rapidly growing forecast errors. Our results are illustrated by case studies
of such tropical cyclones.
Received October 9, 2001 Revised December 28, 2001 相似文献
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2008年西北太平洋热带气旋活动异常特征及成因分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
2008年西北太平洋热带气旋活动的特点:(1)初台异常偏早;(2)生成热带气旋异常偏少,但登陆热带气旋异常偏多,登陆热带气旋与生成热带气旋比例高;(3)从热带气旋的生成源地来看,2008年的热带气旋生成位置明显偏西.2008年热带气旋生成年频数异常偏少的主要原因:2008年仍处在生成热带气旋偏少的气候背景下,对流层低层... 相似文献
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By statistical research on the occurrence pattern of severe convective weather in Jiangsu province under the influence of tropical cyclones within a 10-year period (from 2001 to 2010), this paper discovers that among different severe convective weather, the occurrence frequency of short-range heavy precipitation is the highest, thunderstorms and gales come in second, and general thunderstorms rarely happen, while hailstorms and tornadoes never occur. The statistical results also showed that within the research period there are 21 tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting the Jiangsu area and most of them are in the stage of weakening to tropical depressions. Moreover, through studying indices for relevant cases of severe convection, it is discovered that their thresholds are lower than that of previous research, which indicated that convective instability and energy accumulation can easily lead to severe convective weather eventually due to the influence of TCs. 相似文献
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A statistical comparative analysis of tropical cyclone activity over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal (BoB) has been conducted using best-track data and wind radii information from 1977 to 2018 issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Results have shown that the annual variation in the frequency and duration of tropical cyclones has a significant increasing trend over the Arabian Sea and an insignificant decreasing trend over the BoB. The monthly frequency of tropical cyclones in both the Arabian Sea and the BoB shows a notable bimodal character, with peaks occurring in May and October–November, respectively. The maximum frequency of tropical cyclones occurs in the second peak as a result of the higher moisture content at mid-levels in the autumn. However, the largest proportion of strong cyclones (H1–H5 grades) occurs in the first peak as a result of the higher sea surface temperatures in early summer. Tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea break out later during the first peak and activity ends earlier during the second peak, in contrast with those in the over BoB. This is related to the onset and drawback times of the southwest monsoon in the two basins. Tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea are mainly generated in the eastern basin, whereas in the BoB the genesis locations have a meridional (zonal) distribution in May–June (October–November) as a result of the seasonal movement of the low-level positive vorticity belt. The Arabian Sea is dominated by western and northwestern tropical cyclones by that track west and NW, accounting for about 74.6%, whereas the tropical cyclones with a NE track account for only 25.4%. The proportions of the three types of tracks are similar in the BoB, with each accounting for about 33% of the tropical cyclones. The mean intensity and size of tropical cyclones over the Arabian Sea are stronger and larger, respectively, than those over the BoB and the size of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean in early summer is larger than that in autumn. The asymmetrical structure of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean is affected by the topography and the longest radius of the 34 kt surface wind often lies in the eastern quadrant of the tropical cyclone circulation in both sea areas. FAN Xiao-ting (樊晓婷), LI Ying (李 英), et al. 相似文献
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Summary From 1994 to 2003, fifty-five tropical cyclones entered the Canadian Hurricane Centre (CHC) Response Zone, or about 42% of
all named Atlantic tropical cyclones in this ten-year period, and 2003 was the fourth consecutive year for a tropical cyclone
to make landfall in Canada. The CHC forecasts all tropical cyclones that enter the CHC Response Zone and assumes the lead
in forecasting once the cyclone enters its area of forecast responsibility. This study acknowledges the challenges of forecasting
such tropical cyclones at extratropical latitudes. If a tropical cyclone has been declared extratropical, global models may
no longer use vortex bogussing to carry the cyclone, and even if it is modeled, large model errors often result. The purpose
of this study is to develop a new version of the Florida State University (FSU) hurricane superensemble with greater skill
in tracking tropical cyclones, especially at extratropical latitudes. This has been achieved from the development of the synthetic
superensemble, which is similar to the operational version of the multi-model superensemble that is used at FSU. The synthetic
superensemble differs in that is has a larger set of member models consisting of regular member models, synthetic versions
of these models, and the operational superensemble and its synthetic version. This synthetic superensemble is being used here
to forecast hurricane tracks from the 2001, 2002, and 2003 hurricane seasons. The track forecasts from this method have generally
less error than those of the member models, the operational superensemble, and the ensemble mean. This study shows that the
synthetic superensemble performs consistently well and would be an asset to operational hurricane track forecasting. 相似文献
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双热带气旋相互作用的机制分析及数值研究 Ⅱ:数值模拟 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
在本文第Ⅰ部分关于双热带气旋相互作用物卵机制分析的基础上,利用正压原始方程模式对,平面上无大尺度环境流场情况下双热带气旋的相互作用进行了数值模拟研究,重点考察了双热带气旋水平流场相互作用的次级环流机制,文[1]中所提出的双热带气旋相互作用的临界距离效应概念在模式中得到了验证.同时通过模拟还发现,双热带气旋的联合强度越强、中心间距越小,则互旋越快;对于相互吸引的双热带气旋而言,合并后范围有所扩大,强度有一定的加强,并且较强的两个热带气旋比一强一弱的两个热带气旋维持的时间要长、较难于合并.这些结果与实际双热带气旋相互作用的观测事实极为一致. 相似文献
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利用印度气象局(India Meteorological Department,IMD)、国际气候管理最佳路径档案库(International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship,IBTrACS)提供的1982—2020年阿拉伯海热带气旋路径资料,美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)再分析资料,对近39 a阿拉伯海热带气旋源地和路径特征、活跃区域、频数及气旋累积能量(accumulated cyclone energy,ACE)指数的季节特征和年际变化特征进行分析,并结合环境因素,说明其物理成因。结果表明:阿拉伯海热带气旋多发于10°~25°N,65°~75°E海域,5—6月、9—12月发生频数较高且强度较强,1—4月、7—8月发生频数较低且气旋近中心最大风速均小于35 kn;频数的季节变化主要受控于垂直风切变要素;阿拉伯海热带气旋发生频数和ACE近年有上升趋势,年际变化主要受控于海面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)和850 hPa相对湿度要素。 相似文献
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O. P. Singh 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2002,72(1-2):11-28
Summary The Indian coast stretching more than 7,500 km constitutes the major portion of the South Asian coastline in the North Indian
Ocean region. The South Asian region is significantly influenced by meteorological/oceanographic phenomena like monsoons,
El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tropical cyclones. Direct/indirect impacts of these phenomena, which exhibit large
interannual variabilities, on sea level changes in this region are considerable. Our results show that the mean sea level
along the eastern coast of India, which is highly vulnerable to the incidence of severe tropical cyclones, is considerably
higher than normal during the intense cyclonic period of a year falling in the positive phase of the Southern Oscillation
(La Ni?a epoch), thereby enhancing the hazardous potential of tropical cyclones. Further, in the closing phase of the La Ni?a
southwest monsoon, higher sea level anomalies prevail along the Indian coast raising the flooding potential of such monsoons.
Over the west coast of India significant simultaneous correlations have been found between the amount of southwest monsoon
rainfall and the mean sea level during the period from June to September. Over the east coast of India at Visakhapatnam, mean
sea level is predictable with a fair degree of confidence one month in advance, by using the Sea Surface Temperature (SST)
and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as predictors. These results will be useful in the annual preparedness programmes
aimed at mitigating the impacts of natural disasters like tropical cyclones and floods in the South Asian region.
Received November 9, 2001 相似文献
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2019年秋季(9—11月)大气环流特征为:北半球极涡呈绕极型分布,中高纬度环流呈4波型。随月份增加,欧亚大陆中高纬度环流的经向度不断加大,冷空气势力增强,但仍较历史平均偏弱。西太平洋副热带高压较历史平均偏强,热带气旋活动频繁。我国近海出现了17 次8级以上大风过程,其中冷空气大风过程有9次,热带气旋大风过程4次,冷空气与热带气旋共同影响的大风天气过程3次,冷空气和温带气旋共同影响的大风过程1次。西北太平洋和南海共生成16个热带气旋,全球其他海域生成热带气旋 27个。我国近海浪高在2 m以上的海浪过程有9次。秋季,我国近海海域海面温度逐月下降,北部海域的降温幅度明显大于南部海域。 相似文献