热带西太平洋暖池的热状态及其上空的对流活动对东亚夏季气候异常的影响

本文利用１９７８－１９８９年热带西太平洋暖池的表层与次表?层海温、高云量与降水等观测资料分析了热带西太平洋暖池的热状态及其上空的对流活动对东亚夏季气候异常的影响。分析结果表明：热带西太平洋暖池的热状态及其上空的对流活动对东亚夏季气候异常起着十分重要的作用。当热带西太平洋暖池增暖时，从菲律宾周围经南海到中印半岛上空的对流活动将增强，西太平洋副热带高压的位置偏北，我国江淮流域夏季降水偏少；反之，则菲律宾周围的对流活动减弱，副热带高压偏南，江淮流域的降水偏多，黄河流域的降水偏少，易发生干旱。观测事实还表明，当热带西太平洋暖池上空的对流增强后，从东南亚、经东亚到北美西海岸上空大气环流的异常呈现出一个遥相关型—东亚太平洋型。     

Interactions between the 30–60 day oscillation,the walker circulation and the convective activities in the tropical western pacific and their relations to the interannual oscillation

In this paper, interactions between the 30-60 day oscillation, the Walker circulation and the convective activities in the tropical western Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere summer are analyzed by using the observed data of wind fields and high-cloud amounts for the period from 1980 to 1989.The analyzed results show that the 30-60 day oscillation (hereafter called LFO) may be largely affected by the convective activities in the tropical western Pacific. The LFO in the tropical western Pacific during the strong convective activities around the Philippines stronger than those during the weak convective activities around the Philippines. Moreover, in the case of strong convective activities around the Philippines, the LFO in the tropical west-ern Pacific and tropical eastern Indian Ocean generally propagates westward, and it is intensified by the LFO with a westward propagating center of maximum oscillation from the east to 140oE. However, in the case of weak convective activities around the Philippines, the LFO gradually becomes stronger with a eastward propagating center of maximum oscillation from the eastern Indian Ocean to the tropical western Pacific.Corresponding to the 30-60 day oscillation, the Walker circulation is also in oscillation over the tropical Pacific and its circulation cell seems to shift gradually westward from the tropical western Pacific to the tropical eastern In-dian Ocean with strong convective activities around the Philippines. This may maintain the intensification of convective activities there. However, during the weak convective activities around the Philippines, the Walker circula-tion gradually moves eastward and an ascending flow may appear in the equatorial central Pacific. This may cause convective activities to be intensified over the equatorial central Pacific.The analyzed results also show that the LFO in the tropical western Pacific and East Asia may be associated with the interannual oscillation of the SST anomaly in the tropical western Pacific.     

Interannual variability of the convective activities associated with the east asian summer monsoon obtained from tbb variability

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夏季东亚高空急流与太平洋-日本遥相关型的关系

利用NCEP/NCAR和NOAA月平均资料,采用奇异值分解方法分析了夏季东亚高空纬向风场和西北太平洋海表温度(SST)的耦合关系,并据此研究了东亚副热带高空急流和太平洋-日本(Pacific-Japan,PJ)遥相关型的可能联系。合成分析结果表明,东亚副热带高空急流正模态年,急流偏南偏强,对流层上层南亚高压增强东进,中层西太平洋副热带高压加强西伸,菲律宾周边海域SST升高,中纬度黑潮延伸体区SST降低,菲律宾海和热带西太平洋地区对流活动偏弱,日本海和黑潮延伸体海区对流活动增强,对应PJ遥相关型的负位相;而东亚副热带高空急流负模态年,急流偏北偏弱,对流层上层南亚高压减弱西退,中层西太平洋副热带高压减弱东撤,菲律宾周边SST降低,中纬度黑潮延伸体区SST升高,菲律宾海和热带西太平洋地区对流活动强盛,日本海和黑潮延伸体海区对流活动减弱,对应PJ遥相关型的正位相。由于夏季东亚副热带高空急流活动与PJ遥相关型存在关联,PJ遥相关型可能是东亚副热带高空急流响应太平洋海温异常的纽带。     

The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanism

The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanism from the observed data is discussed. It is discovered that in the developing stage of ENSO, the SST in the western tropical Pacific is colder in summer, the convective activities may be weak around the South China Sea and the Philippines. As a consequence, the subtropical high shifted southward. Therefore, a drought may be caused in the Indo-China peninsula and in the South China. Moreover, in midsummer the subtropical high is weak over the Yangtze River valley and Huaihe River valley, and the flood may be caused in the area from the Yangtze River valley to Huaihe River valley. On the contrary, in the decaying stage of ENSO, the convective activities may be strong around the Philippines, and the subtropical high shifted northward, a drought may be caused in the Yangtze River valley and Huaihe River valley.     

The dynamical effects of divergent wind on the intraseasonal variability of the East Asian circulation

In this paper, the dynamical effects of divergent wind on the intraseasonal variability of atmospheric circulation over East Asia are analyzed by using the function of Rossby-wave source and the energy exchanging function be-tween divergent component and rotational component of the flow.The results analyzed from the observed data show that the advection of vorticity by divergent wind caused by the heating due to the monsoon rainfall in the south to the Yangtze River and the strong convective activities around the Philippines may play an important role in the northward jump of westerly jet stream during the seasonal transition from spring circulation to summer circulation over East Asia. Due to the northward movement of the advection of vorticity by the divergent wind, the energy transformation from divergent component into rotational component can be caused over the Yellow River basin and Northwest China and will cause the intensification of the zonal flow there. Thus, the jet stream abruptly shifts northward to North China.Moreover, the analysed results also show that the advection of vorticity by divergent wind caused by the heating due to the strong convective activities around the Philippines also plays an important role in the intraseasonal varia-bility of the circulation over East Asia during the seasonal transition from summer to winter. With the southward movement of the advection of vorticity by the divergent wind, the energy transformation from divergent component into rotational component can be caused over East Asia, especially over the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin. Therefore, the jet stream gradually moves southward from North China to the Yangtze River basin.     

The Influence of ENSO on the Summer Climate Change in China and Its Mechanism

The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanism from the observed data is discussed. It is discovered that in the developing stage of ENSO, the SST in the western tropical Pacific is colder in summer, the convective activities may be weak around the South China Sea and the Philippines. As a consequence, the subtropical high shifted southward. Therefore, a drought may be caused in the Indo-China peninsula and in the South China. Moreover, in midsummer the subtropical high is weak over the Yangtze River valley and Huaihe River valley, and the flood may be caused in the area from the Yangtze River valley to Huaihe River valley. On the contrary, in the decaying stage of ENSO. the convective activities may be strong around the Philippines, and the subtropical high shifted northward, a drought may be caused in the Yangtze River valley and Huaihe River valley.     

Impact of the thermal state of the tropical western Pacific on onset date and process of the South China Sea summer monsoon

Since the early or late onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon （SCSM） has a large impact on summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia, the mechanism and process of early or late onset of the SCSM are an worthy issue to study. In this paper, the results analyzed by using the observed data show that the onset date and process of the SCSM are closely associated with the thermal state of the tropical western Pacific in spring. When the tropical western Pacific is in a warming state in spring, the western Pacific subtropical high shifts eastward, and twin cyclones are early caused over the Bay of Bengal and Sumatra before the SCSM onset. In this case, the cyclonic circulation located over the Bay of Bengal can be early intensified and become into a strong trough. Thus, the westerly flow and convective activity can be intensified over Sumatra, the Indo-China Peninsula and the South China Sea （SCS） in mid-May. This leads to early onset of the SCSM. In contrast, when the tropical western Pacific is in a cooling state, the western Pacific subtropical high anomalously shifts westward, the twin cyclones located over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean and Sumatra are weakened, and the twin anomaly anticyclones appear over these regions from late April to mid-May. Thus, the westerly flow and convective activity cannot be early intensified over the Indo-China Peninsula and the SCS. Only when the western Pacific subtropical high moves eastward, the weak trough located over the Bay of Bengal can be intensified and become into a strong trough, the strong southwesterly wind and convective activity can be intensified over the Indo-China Peninsula and the SCS in late May. Thus, this leads to late onset of the SCSM. Moreover, in this paper, the influencing mechanism of the thermal state of the tropical western Pacific on the SCSM onset is discussed further from the Walker circulation anomalies in the different thermal states of the tropical western Pacific.     

The Dynamical Effects of Divergent Wind on the Intraseasonal variabinty of the East Asian Circulation

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2018年7月北半球极端天气气候事件及环流特征分析

2018年7月北半球天气气候显著异常,极端事件高发。欧洲、北非、东亚以及北美的大部分地区均遭受严重的高温热浪侵袭;印度、东南亚、中国西南部以及日本西部等地出现极端降水;西太平洋台风活动异常活跃,移动路径偏北。初步诊断表明,北半球中高纬度,由低层到高层稳定维持的异常高压系统是导致北半球中高纬度大部分地区高温热浪持续发生的直接原因。其中异常偏强、偏北的副热带高压,以及增强、东伸的南亚高压与东亚地区持续高温和极端降水事件直接相关;低层菲律宾周围异常活跃的对流活动和强盛的西南水汽输送共同导致南亚、东南亚地区极端降水发生。热带太平洋大部分地区偏暖的海温条件和菲律宾附近异常气旋性环流则与异常活跃的台风活动有关。更需要关注的是,北半球尤其是东亚地区大气环流的异常主要受海洋表面热力状况以及其他区域大气环流遥相关的影响。     

东亚地区夏季风爆发过程

利用中国194站1961～1995年日降水资料及NCEP1979～1997年候格点降水资料,探讨了亚洲地区自春到夏的雨季开始分布。结果表明,东亚地区自春到夏存在副热带季风雨季开始和热带季风雨季开始。前者于4月初开始于华南北部和江南地区,随后向南和向西南扩展,于4月末扩展到华南沿海和中南半岛,这个雨带主要是冷空气和副热带高压西侧转向的SW风以及南亚地区冬春副热带南支西风槽中西风汇合而形成的,是副热带季风雨季开始。后者是南海热带季风爆发后使原来由江南移到华南沿岸的副热带季风雨带随副热带高压北进而北进,前汛期雨季进入盛期,江南出现第二次雨峰,形成梅雨期和江淮及华北雨季。同时,热带季风雨带也自东向西传播到达南亚地区而形成热带季风雨季。还讨论了1998年东亚地区夏季风爆发过程,指出南海夏季风爆发期的季风由副高北侧形成的新生气旋进入南海造成南海中部西风和南海越赤道气流转向的SW季风加强汇合而形成,因而是东亚季风系统中环流系统季节变化造成的,和印度季风无关。在南海季风爆发期阿拉伯海仍由副热带反气旋控制,南亚仍是上述副热带反气旋北侧NW风南下后转向的偏西副热带气流所控制,索马里低空急流仍未爆发,赤道西风并未影响南海。     

中高纬大气环流异常和低纬30～60天低频对流活动对南海夏季风爆发的影响

利用1979-2003年NCAR/NCEP-2再分析全球日平均资料,及1979～2003年全球候平均的CMAP降水和NOAA日平均的向外长波辐射资料,分析了中高纬大气环流异常和低纬30～60天低频对流的活动对南海夏季风爆发迟早的影响.分析结果表明,当5月1～15日期间乌拉尔山及其以西地区对流层出现位势高度负距平(低频气旋)、中纬度大陆为位势高度正距平(低频反气旋)、我国东部沿岸地区为位势高度负距平(低频气旋)、鄂霍次克海地区为位势高度正距平(低频反气旋)时,副热带高压脊较早撤出南海,与此同时,孟加拉湾东部低频对流活跃东传,菲律宾南部周围低频对流发展西移,华南地区低频对流活动南移以及加里曼丹低频对流活跃北移.在这种情况下,南海夏季风爆发偏早.相反,当5月1～15日期间乌拉尔山及其以西地区对流层出现位势高度正距平(低频反气旋)、中纬度大陆为位势高度负距平(低频气旋)、我国东部沿岸地区为位势高度正距平(低频反气旋)、鄂霍次克海地区为位势高度负距平(低频气旋)时,副热带高压脊撤出南海较迟; 与此同时,孟加拉湾东部低频对流不活跃、东传晚,菲律宾南部周围低频对流不活跃、其西移与孟加拉湾东部低频对流的东传反位相,华南地区低频对流活动也不活跃,加里曼丹低频对流较弱.在这种情况下,南海夏季风爆发偏迟.     

热带西太平洋暖池上空对流活动对东亚夏季风季节内变化的影响

本文通过1978—1989年热带西太平洋暖池上空的OLR资料、500 hPa高度场和降水的逐旬资料分析了热带西太平洋暖池上空对流活动对东亚夏季风季节内变化的影响。分析结果表明:在菲律宾周围对流活动强的夏季，西太平洋副热带高压在初夏向北突跳明显，即6月突跳明显，并且往往有两次向北突跳，这使得东亚夏季风降水雨带向北突跳明显，因此，雨带不可能在江淮流域维持；相反，在菲律宾周围对流活动弱的夏季，西太平洋副热带高压在初夏向北突跳不明显，即6月突跳不明显，它长期在江南上空维持，这样，东亚夏季风降水雨带往往在长江中、下     

Statistical model for seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone frequency in the mid-latitudes of East Asia

This study constructed a multiple linear regression model (MLRM) for the seasonal prediction of summer tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in the mid-latitudes of East Asia and then analyzed its validity using large-scale environments. The 850-hPa geopotential heights of the preceding April in the open ocean east of the Philippines and in the Bering Sea were used as independent variables. In the low-frequency years predicted by the MLRM, there was a larger amount of sea ice around the Sea of Okhotsk during the preceding spring and its cooling effect continued into the summer. In addition, topographic and geographic effects around the Sea of Okhotsk that results in the easy formation of cold air created an anomalous cold high over this region in the summer. As a result, the northerlies from an anomalous cold high around the Sea of Okhotsk caused cold surface air temperature anomalies in the mid-latitudes of East Asia, which played an important role in preventing a western Pacific subtropical high from advancing toward the mid-latitudes of East Asia. Eventually, these environments led to a reduced summer TC frequency in the mid-latitudes of East Asia.     

东亚-北太平洋偶极型气压场及其与东亚季风年际变化的关系

利用美国NCEP/NCAR的月平均再分析资料,研究东亚-太平洋地区地面气压的耦合模态与东亚副热带季风异常的关系,结果表明:在亚洲大陆和北半球太平洋之间气压场的偶极子模态主要反映了东亚地区东西向气压梯度的异常.从20世纪60年代到70年代中期,东亚-太平洋的这种偶极子表现为蒙古地区气压偏低和太平洋地区气压偏高的特征,而从20世纪70年代后期到90年代,则表现为蒙古地区气压偏高和太平洋地区气压偏低的特征.在偶极子指数值较高的年份,冬季(或夏季)蒙古高压(或蒙古低压)和太平洋阿留申低压(或太平洋副热带高压)较强     

2005年江淮流域入梅偏晚的成因分析

2005年是江淮流域入梅偏晚年。利用NCEP／NCAR再分析资料、OLR资料和江苏省气象台提供的2005年逐日降水资料，对2005年江淮流域入梅前的异常环流形势进行分析，探讨了西太平洋副热带高压和低层中高纬冷空气的活动异常与东亚大槽、中西太平洋ITCZ以及东亚副热带高空西风急流等活动异常的关系。结果表明，入梅前，东亚大槽发展强盛，ITCZ偏弱以及东亚副热带高空西风急流强劲少动导致西太平洋副热带高压北抬偏晚。同时，东亚副热带高空西风急流的强劲少动也使南下冷空气势力强劲，中低层副热带锋区偏南，抑制了暖湿的东亚夏季风向江淮流域推进。东亚副热带高空西风急流和西太平洋副热带高压向北突跳偏晚是江淮流域2005年入梅偏晚的主要原因。     

形成2015年浙江省梅汛期暴雨的控制环流及梅雨锋结构

本文利用NCEP/NCAR全球再分析逐日资料、地面观测资料和自动站降水资料,在分析了2015年浙江省梅汛期强降水特征、水汽输送和局地环流的基础上,从西南季风进退、副热带高压、南亚高压及西风带波动等方面对2015年形成梅汛期暴雨的控制环流进行了分析。结果表明：2015年整个浙江省梅汛期降水量较常年显著偏多,浙江中部地区降水量比历史同期偏多接近一倍。丰沛的水汽从孟加拉湾经中南半岛向东输送,与西太平洋副热带高压西侧的西南气流相合并,在梅雨锋南侧形成异常辐合,为强降水提供了水汽条件。这次持续强降水由三次强降水过程构成并由西风辐合型锋生引起。第二次强降水过程中大气强对流性不稳定利于梅雨锋上中尺度对流系统发展,导致强降水呈现明显的局地性。而第一次和第三次过程中梅雨带附近大气基本处于对流稳定或中性,以斜压性降水为主。在对流层低层,副高较常年偏东偏南,其西北侧西南暖湿气流与北侧冷空气交汇于浙江省,利于梅汛期强降水集中期的出现。在对流层上层的南亚高压较常年位置偏东,其北侧的西风急流强度偏强,东亚急流核入口区右侧的强辐散利于造成强烈的上升运动。在对流层中层,贝加尔湖阻高的东侧有明显的波动能量向东向南传播并在长江中下游积聚,利于浙江地区扰动的维持,形成持续稳定的梅雨锋和中低空切变线,造成梅雨强降水过程的持续。2015年春夏季热带中东太平洋海温正异常分布有利于梅汛期降水偏多的异常环流的形成。     

东亚副热带季风雨带建立特征及其降水性质分析

利用1961—2006年NCEP/NCAR再分析数据集和TRMM、CMAP多年平均逐候降水资料,分析了中国东部副热带季风雨季的起始时间、建立特征及其降水性质。结果表明,第16—18候,在中国江南南部和华南北部地区(25°30°N)日降水率达到6 mm/d,且范围较大,在低层该雨带的水汽主要来源于西太平洋副热带高压南侧转向的西南水汽输送,其源地即为西太平洋副热带季风雨季开始。雨带建立同时,东亚副热带地区中东太平洋的纬向海平面气压梯度首先在中纬度发生反转,即西低东高(相应于西暖东冷)。中国东部副热带地区出现加热中心并伴有上升运动,强度逐渐增强,并伸展至对流层顶,其强度及对流高度与热带地区相当,对流层中低层大气呈对流不稳定,降水已具有对流性降水性质。与此同时,南海西太平洋地区仍在副热带高压控制之下,盛行下沉运动,无降水产生,南海夏季风及其相应的水汽输送尚未建立。东亚副热带季风雨带的建立(3月底4月初)早于热带夏季风雨带,两雨带分别具有独立的热源中心和上升运动。南海夏季风即将爆发之际,赤道地区加热中心快速北移至南海地区,与副热带地区热源相互作用。     

西太平洋副高的东西进退与东亚夏季风系统的相互影响与关联

利用1980-2010年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和美国NOAA向外长波辐射（outgoing longwave radiation,OLR）资料,根据关键区500 hPa位势高度的变化定义了西太平洋副高东西位置指标,利用该指标围绕东亚夏季风系统开展分析,详细对比了夏季6月、7月副高东西向活动异常时,季风区相应的环流及对流活动差异.结果表明：副高东西位置的年际变化反映了亚洲夏季风的强弱变化,副高偏西（东）年,南海夏季风偏弱（强）,副热带夏季风偏强（弱）;副高的东西进退与东亚夏季风系统成员之间相互影响、相互制约;副高偏西年,南亚高压偏东、偏强,季风槽不发展、强度偏弱,西风带长波槽发展加深,南半球马斯克林高压和澳大利亚高压减弱,越赤道气流减弱,而副高偏东年情况则反之.     

基于星载测雨雷达探测的亚洲对流和层云降水季尺度特征分析

利用热带测雨卫星搭载的测雨雷达10年探测结果,就季尺度亚洲对流降水和层云降水的降水频次和强度及降水垂直结构的特点进行了研究.结果表明春、秋、冬三季东亚季平均降水环西太平洋副热带高压呈带状分布,雨强一般不超过10 mm/d;夏季,沿孟加拉湾、中国西南、中国东部至日本的大片雨区中出现了大于12 mm/d强降水;亚洲陆面对流和层云降水强度均弱于洋面.亚洲山地强迫不但可引起迎风坡上千公里长度的高降水频次和强降水带,而且导致其下风方向降水频次减少.季尺度降水频次分析表明,亚洲大部分地区对流降水频次小于3%;而层云降水频次一般大于3%,最高可超过10%;副热带高压南侧及西南侧的热带地区对流和层云降水频次均高于副热带高压北侧及西北侧的中纬度地区;降水频次的区域分布还表明,春季中南半岛至中国华南及南海南部对流活动多于同期的印度次大陆.季平均对流和层云降水廓线的季节变化主要表现为"雨顶"高度的季节变化,即降水云的厚度变化;两类降水平均廓线季节变化的区域性差异表明,热带外地区较热带地区显著、陆面较同纬度洋面显著、孟加拉湾比南海显著,而南海和西太平洋暖池无明显的季节变化.此外,降水结构的剖面分析还表明对流降水存在4层结构、层云降水存在3层结构.