On a more precise stokes' series

Summary A relation is established between coefficients of an expansion of the gravitational potential into a series of Legendre's function of the second kind and coefficients of an expansion of gravity anomalies on the surface of the reference ellipsoid into a series of the same functions. This connection can be useful in geodetic computations which take into account the Earth's flattening.     

A benchmark city for seismic resilience assessment

The concept of seismic resilience has received significant attention from academia and industry during the last two decades. Different frameworks have been proposed for seismic resilience assessment of engineering systems at different scales (e.g., buildings, bridges, communities, and cities). Testbeds including Centerville virtual community (CVC), Memphis testbed (MTB), and the virtual city of Turin, Italy (VC-TI) have been developed during the last decade. However, the resilience assessment results of Chinese cities still require calibration based on a unified evaluation model. Therefore, a geographic information system (GIS)-based benchmark model of a medium-sized city located in the southeastern coastal region of China was developed. The benchmark city can be used to compare existing assessment frameworks and calibrate the assessment results. The demographics, site conditions, and potential hazard exposure of the benchmark city, as well as land use and building inventory are described in this paper. Data of lifeline systems are provided, including power, transportation, water, drainage, and natural gas distribution networks, as well as the locations of hospitals, emergency shelters, and schools. Data from past earthquakes and the literature were obtained to develop seismic fragility models, consequence models, and recovery models, which can be used as basic data or calibration data in the resilience assessment process. To demonstrate the completeness of the data included in the benchmark city, a case study on the accessibility of emergency rescue after earthquakes was conducted, and the preliminary results were discussed. The ultimate goal of this benchmark city is to provide a platform for calibrating resilience assessment results and to facilitate the development of resilient cities in China.

     

On the development of a seismic source zonation model for seismic hazard assessment in western Saudi Arabia

A new seismic source model has been developed for the western part of the Arabian Peninsula, which has experienced considerable earthquake activity in the historical past and in recent times. The data used for the model include an up-to-date seismic catalog, results of recent studies of Cenozoic faulting in the area, aeromagnetic anomaly and gravity maps, geological maps, and miscellaneous information on volcanic activity. The model includes 18 zones ranging along the Red Sea and the Arabian Peninsula from the Gulf of Aqaba and the Dead Sea in the north to the Gulf of Aden in the south. The seismic source model developed in this study may be considered as one of the basic branches in a logic tree approach for seismic hazard assessment in Saudi Arabia and adjacent territories.     

CPT site characterization for seismic hazards in the New Madrid seismic zone

A series of cone penetration tests (CPTs) were conducted in the vicinity of the New Madrid seismic zone in central USA for quantifying seismic hazards, obtaining geotechnical soil properties, and conducting studies at liquefaction sites related to the 1811–1812 and prehistoric New Madrid earthquakes. The seismic piezocone provides four independent measurements for delineating the stratigraphy, liquefaction potential, and site amplification parameters. At the same location, two independent assessments of soil liquefaction susceptibility can be made using both the normalized tip resistance (q_c1N) and shear wave velocity (V_s1). In lieu of traditional deterministic approaches, the CPT data can be processed using probability curves to assess the level and likelihood of future liquefaction occurrence.     

地质灾害危险性评估在规划建设中的应用实例

各类地质灾害对城市规划建设具有重要影响。本文以济南市高新区孙村片区规划建设项目为例,分析了当地地质环境条件特征,对其危险性进行了评估,对区内进行工程建设的适宜性进行了评估,并提出了防治措施及建议。     

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the city of Quetta,Pakistan

Seismic hazard assessment for Quetta is carried out using probabilistic seismic hazard analysis technique based on area sources and augmented by line source used for the first time in Pakistan. Seismic data has been collected and analyzed in spatial and temporal domains. Five Seismic Zones have been modeled in line with tectonics of the region with b-value of 1.14 using regression. The b-value is slightly higher, which is attributed to the fact that aftershocks were not removed as it distorted the dataset. Five fault sources are modeled, with three as reverse and two as strike-slip with 7.8 as maximum magnitude. Mach Structure is included in the tectonics for the first time. The attenuation relation used in the present study is recommended by various researchers. The expected Peak Ground Acceleration for 500-year return period is 4.79 m/s² for rock outcrop and characterized as very high. Furthermore, variation in spectral acceleration within Quetta city is observed, for which spectral curves are developed for four different places.     

The earthquake of 6 September 2002 and the seismic history of Palermo (Northern Sicily,Italy): Implications for the seismic hazard assessment of the city

On September 6, 2002, a M_L = 5.6 earthquake, occurring some tens of kilometres offshore from the Northern Sicilian coast (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea), slightly damaged the city of Palermo and surroundings (degree 6 in the European Macroseismic Scale 1998). The macroseismic investigation of the shock and a detailed study of effects of the main earthquakes which affected Palermo in the past have been performed in order to evaluate the seismic response of the city. Moreover, the comparison of the recent event, which is instrumentally constrained, with historical earthquakes allows us to infer new insights on the seismogenic sources of the area, that seem located offshore in the Tyrrhenian sea.In the last 500 years, Palermo has never been completely destroyed but has suffered effects estimated between intensities 6 and 8 EMS-98 many times (1693, 1726, 1751, 1823, 1940, 1968, 2002). The damage scenarios of the analysed events have shown that damage distribution is strongly conditioned by soil response in the different parts of the city and by a high building vulnerability, mainly in the historical centre and in the south-eastern zone of the modern city. As a matter of fact, Palermo has always suffered greater effects than those reported for other nearby localities. The hazard assessment obtained using observed site intensities has shown that the probability of occurrence for intensity 8 (the strongest intensity observed in Palermo) exceeds 99% for 550 years, while the estimated mean return period is 152 ± 40 years. These results, in connection with building vulnerability due to the urban expansion before the introduction of seismic code, suggest that the city is exposed to a relatively high seismic risk.This paper has not been submitted elsewhere in identical or similar form, nor will it be during the first 3 months after its submission to Journal of Seismology.     

提高地方地震台网地震速报水平初探

总结了西昌遥测地震台网地震速报处理技术经验，针对地方台网地震速报中常出现的地震参数误差提出了改进思路。     

Optimization of a precise integration method for seismic modeling based on graphic processing unit

General purpose graphic processing unit(GPU) calculation technology is gradually widely used in various fields.Its mode of single instruction,multiple threads is capable of seismic numerical simulation which has a huge quantity of data and calculation steps.In this study,we introduce a GPU-based parallel calculation method of a precise integration method(PIM) for seismic forward modeling.Compared with CPU single-core calculation,GPU parallel calculating perfectly keeps the features of PIM,which has small bandwidth,high accuracy and capability of modeling complex substructures,and GPU calculation brings high computational efficiency,which means that high-performing GPU parallel calculation can make seismic forward modeling closer to real seismic records.     

About conditions of forming recurrence curves and the assessment of long-term and current (expected) seismic hazards

The blocked structure of geophysical medium and the values of limit magnitudes and deformations in the an earthquake source (Sadovskii, 1979; Sadovskii and Pisarenko, 1991), which depend on the block structure, have been the basis for the Earth’s crust model. The model includes 18 orders (1–18) of the structures whose dimensions are connected with one another in a nonrandom way and reflect the coefficient of similarity k = √10 characteristic of tectonic blocks, interblock boundaries, and earthquake sources (Sadovskii, 1979; Bugaev, 1999; Bugaev and Spivak, 2002). The relation of sizes of constituent structures of the model is described by a geometric progression: with a growth in the order of structure by 1, a ratio of sizes of the N _i and N _{i + 1} structures increases by k times and vice versa. If length logarithms of structures are considered, their properties are described by an arithmetic progression with the difference d = 0.5. This made it possible to formalize the size assessment of n first constituent structures of the earth’s crust model (with due account of a size of the maximum structure of a region) and determination of their frequency with allowance for a period of long-term geodynamic and seismic stability of the territory under study. The model was used (i) for estimating possible limits of change in the observed earthquake recurrence curves taking into account the dependences, reflecting a relation of limit magnitudes and the size of earthquake source, and conditions of its preparation and manifestation, and also (ii) for forecasting the earthquake recurrence curves based on geodynamic data (extension of a zone, strain rate in a zone, frequency distribution of extents of active faults or zones). The comparison of forecasted and observed data for the site of placement of the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant before and after the March 11, 2011 earthquake with M _W = 8.9 allowed us to establish the regional and local features of the seismic process and to estimate the long-term and current seismic dangers according to geodynamic and seismological data.     

The road map for seismic risk analysis in a Mediterranean city

The seismic risk analysis evaluation in the Mediterranean area is one of the main tasks for the preservation of Cultural Heritage and for the sustainable development of Mediterranean cities. The Mediterranean area is characterised by a medium–high level of seismic risk, so that earthquakes are the major cause for the destruction of monuments, residential and industrial buildings. A case history regarding the seismic risk analysis for the city of Catania (Italy) is presented, since the city has been heavy damaged in the past by strong earthquakes such as the 1169 earthquake (XI MCS), the 1542 earthquake (IX MCS), the 1693 earthquake (XI MCS) and the 1818 earthquake (VIII MCS) etc., which caused several thousands of deaths. Fault modelling, attenuation laws, synthetic accelerograms, recorded accelerograms and site effects are considered for the evaluation of the seismic action. Vulnerability of physical environment, related to the presence of cavities and to seismic-induced landslides and liquefaction has been analysed, with special reference to the new modelling of such phenomena and to the application of models to given areas. Soil–structure Interaction has been analysed for some geotechnical works, such as shallow foundation and retaining wall, by means of physical and numerical modelling. The paper deals with the vulnerability of physical environment (landslides, liquefaction, etc.), while the road map continues with the analysis of vulnerability of monuments and buildings, with the aim of the estimation of the seismic resistance required to defend against the seismic action given by the scenario earthquake. For the mitigation of seismic risk, structural improvements of R.C. buildings with different methodology and techniques have been analysed, as well as the guideline for the strengthening of buildings. The work shows that the seismic risk of the city is not a summation of the seismic risk of each building, because the vulnerability of the urban system plays an important role on the seismic risk evaluation of a given city. To this aim the vulnerability of the road infrastructures, lifelines, and urban framework have been also analysed in the project.     

On unified analysis of uncertainty in seismic hazard assessment

（胡聿贤，陈汉尧）Ｏｎｕｎｉｆｉｅｄａｎａｌｙｓｉｓｏｆｕｎｃｅｒｔａｉｎｔｙｉｎｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｈａｚａｒｄａｓｓｅｓｓｍｅｎｔ￥Ｙｕ－ＸｉａｎＨＵａｎｄＨａｎ－ＹａｏＣＨＥＮ（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧｅｏｐｈｙｓｉｃｓ，ＳｔａｔｅＳｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇ...     

Numerical models for the seismic assessment of St. Nicholas Cathedral,Cyprus

Within the scope of this study, seismic performance of the St. Nicholas Cathedral that dates back to 1300s was assessed. This structure resembles to the Rheims Cathedral of France with a nave of seven bays ending in a polygonal apse, together with flanking aisles ending in apsidal chapels of similar shape. According to historical records, it sustained heavy earthquake damage twice to its roof structure and flying buttresses. The main construction material used at St. Nicholas Cathedral is calcarenite. With the non-destructive and uniaxial compression tests carried out, mechanical properties of the material used and their variability throughout the structure were documented. Based on the information gathered on the structure, its 3 dimensional finite element model was built. After calibrating this model with ambient vibration test results, seismic performance of the cathedral was assessed. Findings of this study suggested that it will sustain severe damage at its flying buttresses and flying buttress–vault connection points (part of the roof structure) under an earthquake of 475 year return period. Based on the obtained analytical results, a number of rehabilitation recommendations were made.     

An energy-based methodology for the assessment of seismic demand

A methodology for the assessment of the seismic energy demands imposed on structures is proposed. The research was carried out through two consecutive phases. Inelastic design input energy spectra for systems with a prescribed displacement ductility ratio were first developed. The study of the inelastic behavior of energy factors and the evaluation of the response modification in comparison with the elastic case were performed by introducing two new parameters, namely: (1) the Response Modification Factor of the earthquake input energy (R_E), representing the ratio of the elastic to inelastic input energy spectral values and (2) the ratio α of the area enclosed by the inelastic input energy spectrum in the range of periods between 0.05 and 4.0 s to the corresponding elastic value. The proposed design inelastic energy spectra, resulting from the study of a large set of strong motion records, were obtained as a function of ductility, soil type, source-to-site distance and magnitude.Subsequently, with reference to single degree of freedom systems, the spectra of the hysteretic to input energy ratio were evaluated, for different soil types and target ductility ratios. These spectra, defined to evaluate the hysteretic energy demand of structures, were described by a piecewise linear idealization that allows to distinguish three distinct regions as a function of the vibration period. In this manner, once the inelastic design input energy spectra were determined, the definition of the energy dissipated by means of inelastic deformations followed directly from the knowledge of hysteretic to input energy ratio.The design spectra of both input energy and hysteretic to input energy ratio were defined considering an elasto-plastic behavior. Nevertheless, other constitutive models were taken into account for comparison purposes.     

On the treatment of uncertainty in seismic vulnerability and portfolio risk assessment

In a related study developed by the authors, building fragility is represented by intensity‐specific distributions of damage exceedance probability of various damage states. The contribution of the latter has been demonstrated in the context of loss estimation of building portfolios, where it is shown that the proposed concept of conditional fragility functions provides the link between seismic intensity and the uncertainty in damage exceedance probabilities. In the present study, this methodology is extended to the definition of building vulnerability, whereby vulnerability functions are characterized by hazard‐consistent distributions of damage ratio per level of primary seismic intensity parameter—Sa(T₁). The latter is further included in a loss assessment framework, in which the impact of variability and spatial correlation of damage ratio in the probabilistic evaluation of seismic loss is accounted for, using test‐bed portfolios of 2, 5, and 8‐story precode reinforced concrete buildings located in the district of Lisbon, Portugal. This methodology is evaluated in comparison with current state‐of‐the‐art methods of vulnerability and loss calculation, highlighting the discrepancies that can arise in loss estimates when the variability and spatial distributions of damage ratio, influenced by ground motion properties other than the considered primary intensity measure, are not taken into account.     

Model updating and seismic loss assessment for a portfolio of bridges

The majority of bridge infrastructures in Italy were built in the 1960s and ‘70s without any specific seismic provision being made. As a consequence, it is expected that these bridges would be highly vulnerable if subjected to a significant seismic event. Given this background, it is natural that the rapid and accurate assessment of economic losses incurred to the bridge infrastructure as a result of such an event could play a crucial role in emergency management in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake. Focusing on the infrastructure system of highway bridges in the Campania region in Italy, this paper demonstrates how both state-of-the-art methodologies in portfolio loss assessment and the available data can be used to assess the probability distribution of the repair costs incurred due to the 1980 Irpinia earthquake. Formulating a probabilistic loss assessment for a portfolio of bridges as a standard Monte Carlo simulation problem helps to resolve the spatial risk integral efficiently. One of the specific features of this case study is the use of statistical methods for updating models of: (a) ground motion predictions, (b) vulnerability/fragility and (c) exposure/costs, based on the available data. It has been observed that alternative hypotheses concerning the ground motion correlation structure can significantly affect the distribution of direct economic losses. Furthermore, updating the ground motion prediction based on available recordings may significantly reduce the dispersion in the estimate of the direct economic losses.     

Deterministic earthquake damage and loss assessment for the city of Bucharest, Romania

On March 4, 1977, an earthquake with a moment magnitude M _w 7.4 at a hypocentral depth of 94 km hit the Vrancea region (Romania). In Bucharest alone, the earthquake caused severe damage to 33,000 buildings while 1,424 people were killed. Under the umbrella of the SAFER project, the city of Bucharest, being one of the larger European cities at risk, was chosen as a test bed for the estimation of damage and connected losses in case of a future large magnitude earthquake in the Vrancea area. For the conduct of these purely deterministic damage and loss computations, the open-source software SELENA is applied. In order to represent a large event in the Vrancea region, a set of deterministic scenarios were defined by combining ranges of focal parameters, i.e., magnitude, focal depth, and epicentral location. Ground motion values are computed by consideration of different ground motion prediction equations that are believed to represent earthquake attenuation effects in the region. Variations in damage and loss estimates are investigated through considering different sets of building vulnerability curves (provided by HAZUS-MH and various European authors) to characterize the damaging behavior of prevalent building typologies in the city of Bucharest.     

On the accuracy of initial seismological data in the problem of seismic hazard assessment

The parameters of the September 3, 1978, earthquake in the Western Caucasus are presented according to data from different seismological agencies. This event, along with the 1966 earthquake in Anapa, is the strongest seismic event in the region. The solutions suggested in the main international and national seismological agencies contradict the well-known fact that the earthquake did not have catastrophic consequences. This is confirmed only by the position of the epicenter according to GCMT data intended for determining somewhat different earthquake parameters: the focal mechanism and seismic moment. Despite the fact that there was no expedition to perform a macroseismic study of the earthquake, some information was collected by phone survey. Information on the spatial distribution of the macroseismic effect made it possible to more accurately determine the epicenter position according to the GCMT data.     

New methodology for urban seismic risk assessment from a holistic perspective

The seismic risk evaluation usually works with a fragmented concept of risk, which depends on the scientific discipline in charge of the assessment. To achieve an effective performance of the risk management, it is necessary to define risk as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences due to a hazardous phenomenon in a period of time. This article presents a methodology which evaluates the seismic risk from a holistic perspective, which means, it takes into account the expected physical damage and also the conditions related to social fragility and lack of resilience, which favour the second order effects when a hazard event strikes an urban centre. This seeks to obtain results which are useful in the decision making process for risk reduction. The proposed method for urban seismic risk evaluation uses the fuzzy sets theory in order to handle qualitative concepts and variables involved in the assessment, the physical risk level and aggravation level, related to the social fragility and the lack of resilience, are evaluated and finally a total risk level is determinate.