Deep Solar Activity Minimum 2007 – 2009: Solar Wind Properties and Major Effects on the Terrestrial Magnetosphere

We discuss the temporal variations and frequency distributions of solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters during the solar minimum of 2007?–?2009 from measurements returned by the IMPACT and PLASTIC instruments on STEREO-A. We find that the density and total field strength were significantly weaker than in the previous minimum. The Alfvén Mach number was higher than typical. This reflects the weakness of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) forces, and has a direct effect on the solar wind–magnetosphere interactions. We then discuss two major aspects that this weak solar activity had on the magnetosphere, using data from Wind and ground-based observations: i) the dayside contribution to the cross-polar cap potential (CPCP), and ii) the shapes of the magnetopause and bow shock. For i) we find a low interplanetary electric field of 1.3±0.9 mV?m^?1 and a CPCP of 37.3±20.2 kV. The auroral activity is closely correlated to the prevalent stream–stream interactions. We suggest that the Alfvén wave trains in the fast streams and Kelvin–Helmholtz instability were the predominant agents mediating the transfer of solar wind momentum and energy to the magnetosphere during this three-year period. For ii) we determine 328 magnetopause and 271 bow shock crossings made by Geotail, Cluster 1, and the THEMIS B and C spacecraft during a three-month interval when the daily averages of the magnetic and kinetic energy densities attained their lowest value during the three years under survey. We use the same numerical approach as in Fairfield’s (J. Geophys. Res. 76, 7600, 1971) empirical model and compare our findings with three magnetopause models. The stand-off distance of the subsolar magnetopause and bow shock were 11.8 R _E and 14.35 R _E, respectively. When comparing with Fairfield’s (1971) classic result, we find that the subsolar magnetosheath is thinner by ～1 R _E. This is mainly due to the low dynamic pressure which results in a sunward shift of the magnetopause. The magnetopause is more flared than in Fairfield’s model. By contrast the bow shock is less flared, and the latter is the result of weaker MHD forces.

     

Study of CME Propagation in the Inner Heliosphere: SOHO LASCO, SMEI and STEREO HI Observations of the January 2007 Events

We are investigating the geometric and kinematic characteristics of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) using data obtained by the LASCO coronagraphs, the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI), and the SECCHI imaging experiments on the STEREO spacecraft. The early evolution of CMEs can be tracked by the LASCO C2 and C3 and SECCHI COR1 and COR2 coronagraphs, and the HI and SMEI instruments can track their ICME counterparts through the inner heliosphere. The HI fields of view (4?–?90°) overlap with the SMEI field of view (>?20° to all sky) and, thus, both instrument sets can observe the same ICME. In this paper we present results for ICMEs observed on 24?–?29 January 2007, when the STEREO spacecraft were still near Earth so that both the SMEI and STEREO views of large ICMEs in the inner heliosphere coincided. These results include measurements of the structural and kinematic evolution of two ICMEs and comparisons with drive/drag kinematic, 3D tomographic reconstruction, the HAFv2 kinematic, and the ENLIL MHD models. We find it encouraging that the four model runs generally were in agreement on both the kinematic evolution and appearance of the events. Because it is essential to understand the effects of projection across large distances, that are not generally crucial for events observed closer to the Sun, we discuss our analysis procedure in some detail.     

Predicting the Amplitude of a Solar Cycle Using the North – South Asymmetry in the Previous Cycle: II. An Improved Prediction for Solar Cycle 24

Recently, using Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network sunspot group data during the period 1874 – 2006, Javaraiah (Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc. 377, L34, 2007: Paper I), has found that: (1) the sum of the areas of the sunspot groups in 0° – 10° latitude interval of the Sun’s northern hemisphere and in the time-interval of −1.35 year to +2.15 year from the time of the preceding minimum of a solar cycle n correlates well (corr. coeff. r=0.947) with the amplitude (maximum of the smoothed monthly sunspot number) of the next cycle n+1. (2) The sum of the areas of the spot groups in 0° – 10° latitude interval of the southern hemisphere and in the time-interval of 1.0 year to 1.75 year just after the time of the maximum of the cycle n correlates very well (r=0.966) with the amplitude of cycle n+1. Using these relations, (1) and (2), the values 112±13 and 74±10, respectively, were predicted in Paper I for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. Here we found that the north – south asymmetries in the aforementioned area sums have a strong ≈44-year periodicity and from this we can infer that the upcoming cycle 24 will be weaker than cycle 23. In case of (1), the north – south asymmetry in the area sum of a cycle n also has a relationship, say (3), with the amplitude of cycle n+1, which is similar to (1) but more statistically significant (r=0.968) like (2). By using (3) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle with a better accuracy by about 13 years in advance, and we get 103±10 for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. However, we found a similar but a more statistically significant (r=0.983) relationship, say (4), by using the sum of the area sum used in (2) and the north – south difference used in (3). By using (4) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle by about 9 years in advance with a high accuracy and we get 87±7 for the amplitude of cycle 24, which is about 28% less than the amplitude of cycle 23. Our results also indicate that cycle 25 will be stronger than cycle 24. The variations in the mean meridional motions of the spot groups during odd and even numbered cycles suggest that the solar meridional flows may transport magnetic flux across the solar equator and potentially responsible for all the above relationships. The author did a major part of this work at the Department of Physics and Astronomy, UCLA, 430 Portola Plaza, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1547, USA.     

Post-Eruptive Arcade Formation in the 25 January 2007 CME/Flare Limb Event: Microwave Observations with the RATAN-600 Radio Telescope

A CME/flare event occurred at the eastern limb on 25 January, 2007. Seven successive multi-wavelength scans in the range 1.8 cm?–?5.0 cm were obtained with the RATAN-600 radio telescope starting just at the beginning of the post-eruptive arcade formation (30 min after a C6.3 flare peak) and lasting for 3.5 hours. The conditions were favorable to study the off-limb microwave radio source associated with the post-eruptive arcade in different phases of its formation. Microwave radio emission of the arcade was rather intense initially and then considerably decreased; its maximum was co-spatial with the 195 Å Fe xii loop tops. The RATAN-600 total flux spectra of the off-limb radio source were practically flat during the first two hours indicating a predominant contribution of thermal emission. The X-ray spectrum was thermal (according to RHESSI data) at that time. Data available in the meter wavelength range during this phase were indicative of weak non-thermal processes likely due to accelerated particles. However, free?–?free emission of an isothermal source dominated in microwaves. This is indicative of the presence of a large amount of plasma in the region of arcade formation at the initial stage of the event. The weak microwave emission during the decay phase might be interpreted as the thermal cyclotron emission of the loops in the arcade.     

The Rotation Rates of Solar Magnetic Fields During Solar Cycles 21 – 23

Employing the synoptic maps of the photospheric magnetic fields from the beginning of solar cycle 21 to the end of 23, we first build up a time – longitude stackplot at each latitude between ±35°. On each stackplot there are many tilted magnetic structures clearly reflecting the rotation rates, and we adopt a cross-correlation technique to explore the rotation rates from these tilted structures. Our new method avoids artificially choosing magnetic tracers, and it is convenient for investigating the rotation rates of the positive and negative fields by omitting one kind of field on the stackplots. We have obtained the following results. i) The rotation rates of the positive and negative fields (or the leader and follower polarities, depending on the hemispheres and solar cycles) between latitudes ±35° during solar cycles 21–23 are derived. The reversal times of the leader and follower polarities are usually not consistent with the years of the solar minimum, nevertheless, at latitudes ±16°, the reversal times are almost simultaneous with them. ii) The rotation rates of the three solar cycles averaged over each cycle are calculated separately for the positive, negative and total fields. The latitude profiles of rotation of the positive and negative fields exhibit equatorial symmetries with each other, and those of the total fields lie between them. iii) The differences in rotation rates between the leader and follower polarities are obtained. They are very small near the equator, and increase as latitude increases. In the latitude range of 5° – 20°, these differences reach 0.05 deg day⁻¹, and the mean difference for solar cycle 22 is somewhat smaller than cycles 21 and 23 in these latitude regions. Then, the differences reduce again at latitudes higher than 20°.     

On the Temporal Variability of the “Strahl” and Its Relationship with Solar Wind Characteristics: STEREO SWEA Observations

The “strahl” is a specific population of the solar wind, constituted by strongly field aligned electrons flowing away from the Sun, with energies >60 eV. Using the Solar Wind Electron Analyzer (SWEA) onboard STEREO, we investigate the short time scale fluctuations of this population. It is shown that its phase space density (PSD) at times presents fluctuations larger than 50% at scales of the order of minutes and less. The fluctuations are particularly strong for periods of a few tens of hours in high-speed streams, following the crossing of the corotating interaction region, when the strahl is also the most collimated in pitch angle. The amplitude of the fluctuations tends to decrease in conjunction with a broadening in pitch angle. Generally, the strongly fluctuating strahl is observed when the magnetic field is also highly perturbed. That SWEA is able to perform a very rapid 3D analysis at a given energy is essential since it can be demonstrated that the observed magnetic turbulence can only marginally perturb the PSD measurements.     

High-Frequency Evolving Emission Lines for the 25 August 1999 Solar Flare

We analyze a special kind of temporal fine structure in microwave radio emission for the 25 August 1999 solar flare observed by the PMO spectrometer over the range of 4.5 – 7.5 GHz. This flare displays continuum emission after a group of reverse-slope type III bursts around 6 GHz. High-resolution dynamic spectra reveal three evolving emission lines (EELs) following the type III group. They are characterized by isolated, narrow, and continuous emission strips, which display frequency fluctuations with time. Their frequency-drift rates are between −2 and 3 GHz s⁻¹. Distinct from the EELs at lower frequencies, three EELs have a very short duration of a few seconds. They show an average bandwidth of Δf≈330 MHz and a relative bandwidth of Δf/f≈0.057. This is the first time that this kind of fine structure has been observed around 6 GHz.     

The Solar Optical Telescope for the Hinode Mission: An Overview

The Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) aboard the Hinode satellite (formerly called Solar-B) consists of the Optical Telescope Assembly (OTA) and the Focal Plane Package (FPP). The OTA is a 50-cm diffraction-limited Gregorian telescope, and the FPP includes the narrowband filtergraph (NFI) and the broadband filtergraph (BFI), plus the Stokes Spectro-Polarimeter (SP). The SOT provides unprecedented high-resolution photometric and vector magnetic images of the photosphere and chromosphere with a very stable point spread function and is equipped with an image-stabilization system with performance better than 0.01 arcsec rms. Together with the other two instruments on Hinode (the X-Ray Telescope (XRT) and the EUV Imaging Spectrometer (EIS)), the SOT is poised to address many fundamental questions about solar magnetohydrodynamics. This paper provides an overview; the details of the instrument are presented in a series of companion papers. M. Otsubo is a former NAOJ staff scientist.     

Automated Detection of Oscillating Regions in the Solar Atmosphere

Recently observed oscillations in the solar atmosphere have been interpreted and modeled as magnetohydrodynamic wave modes. This has allowed for the estimation of parameters that are otherwise hard to derive, such as the coronal magnetic-field strength. This work crucially relies on the initial detection of the oscillations, which is commonly done manually. The volume of Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) data will make manual detection inefficient for detecting all of the oscillating regions. An algorithm is presented that automates the detection of areas of the solar atmosphere that support spatially extended oscillations. The algorithm identifies areas in the solar atmosphere whose oscillation content is described by a single, dominant oscillation within a user-defined frequency range. The method is based on Bayesian spectral analysis of time series and image filtering. A Bayesian approach sidesteps the need for an a-priori noise estimate to calculate rejection criteria for the observed signal, and it also provides estimates of oscillation frequency, amplitude, and noise, and the error in all of these quantities, in a self-consistent way. The algorithm also introduces the notion of quality measures to those regions for which a positive detection is claimed, allowing for simple post-detection discrimination by the user. The algorithm is demonstrated on two Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) datasets, and comments regarding its suitability for oscillation detection in SDO are made.     

Phase Space Analysis: The Equilibrium of the Solar Magnetic Cycle

We present the results of a statistical study of the solar cycle based on the analysis of the superficial toroidal magnetic field component phase space. The magnetic field component used to create the embedded phase space was constructed from monthly sunspot number observations since 1750. The phase space was split into 32 sections (or time instants) and the average values of the orbits on this phase space were calculated (giving the most probable cycle). In this phase space it is shown that the magnetic field on the Sun’s surface evolves through a set of orbits that go around a mean orbit (i.e., the most probable magnetic cycle that we interpret as the equilibrium solution). It follows that the most probable cycle is well represented by a van der Pol oscillator limit curve (equilibrium solution), as can be derived from mean-field dynamo theory. This analysis also retrieves the empirical Gnevyshev – Ohl’s rule between the first and second parts of the solar magnetic cycle. The sunspot number evolution corresponding to the most probable cycle (in phase space) is presented.     

The Minimum Activity Epoch as a Precursor of the Solar Activity

This paper considers the indices characterizing the minimum activity epoch, according to the data of large-scale magnetic fields and polar activity. Such indices include: dipole–octopole index, area and average latitude of the field with dominant polarity in each hemisphere, polar activity seen in polar faculae and Ca?ii K line bright points, coronal emission line intensity (5303?Å) and others. We studied the correlation between these indices and the amplitude of the following sunspot cycle, and the relation between the duration of the cycle of large-scale magnetic fields and the duration of the sunspot cycle. The obtained relationships allow us to presume that the polar field is formed from the sources of both preceding and the current activity cycles during the decay phase and at the activity minimum. The balance in these sources would therefore determine the features of the following sunspot cycle. The prediction for the 24th activity cycle using these results leads to W=102±13.     

The SORCE SIM Solar Spectrum: Comparison with Recent Observations

The Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) on board the NASA SORCE satellite (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) was launched on 25 January 2003 and has been making twice-daily measurements of solar variability in the 220 to 1630 nm range and daily measurements in the 1600 to 2400 nm range. This study presents preflight and postlaunch calibration activities of the SIM instrument and its flight spare components as well as in-flight comparisons with the ATLAS 3 composite spectrum (Atmospheric Laboratory for Applications and Science) in the ultraviolet (UV), visible, and near infrared (NIR) as well as comparisons with the SOLSTICE (Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment) in the UV. In the 258 to 1350 nm range, the SIM agrees with ATLAS 3 with a fractional difference of ?0.021±0.021 (k=1, estimated standard deviation) and with the additional corrections discussed herein the agreement improves to ?0.008±0.021 (k=1). In the ultraviolet (220–307 nm) the agreement between all the instruments in this study is better than 5%, but fractional differences reveal other instrument- and calibration-related differences. In the 1350 to 2400 nm range the agreement between SIM and ATLAS 3 is about 8%, so these SIM data are corrected to agree with ATLAS 3 in this range.     

Electron-Temperature Maps of the Low Solar Corona: ISCORE Results from the Total Solar Eclipse of 29 March 2006 in Libya

We conducted an experiment in conjunction with the total solar eclipse of 29 March 2006 in Libya that measured the coronal intensity through two filters centered at 3850 Å and 4100 Å with bandwidths of ≈?40 Å. The purpose of these measurements was to obtain the intensity ratio through these two filters to determine the electron temperature. The instrument, Imaging Spectrograph of Coronal Electrons (ISCORE), consisted of an eight inch, f/10 Schmidt Cassegrain telescope with a thermoelectrically-cooled CCD camera at the focal plane. Results show electron temperatures of 10⁵ K close to the limb to 3×10⁶ K at 1.3R _⊙. We describe this novel technique, and we compare our results to other relevant measurements. This technique could be easily implemented on a space-based platform using a coronagraph to produce global maps of the electron temperature of the solar corona.     

STEREO/SECCHI Observations on 8 December 2007: Evidence Against the Wave Hypothesis of the EIT Wave Origin

Three-dimensional (3D) tomographic analysis of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) images is used to place empirical constraints on the corona’s temperature and density structure. The input data are images taken by the EUVI instrument on STEREO A and B spacecraft for Carrington Rotation 2069 (16 April to 13 May 2008). While the reconstructions are global, we demonstrate the capabilities of this method by examining specific structures in detail. Of particular importance are the results for coronal cavities and the surrounding helmet streamers, which our method allows to be analyzed without projection effects for the first time. During this rotation, both the northern and southern hemispheres exhibited stable polar crown filaments with overlying EUV cavities. These filaments and cavities were too low-lying to be well observed in white-light coronagraphs. Furthermore, due to projection effects, these cavities were not clearly discernible above the limb in EUV images, thus tomography offers the only option to study their plasma properties quantitatively. It is shown that, when compared to the surrounding helmet material, these cavities have lower densities (about 30%, on average) and broader local differential emission measures that are shifted to higher temperatures than the surrounding streamer plasma.     

Solar Radio Spikes in 2.6 – 3.8 GHz during the 13 December 2006 Event

On 13 December 2006, some unusual radio bursts in the range 2.6?–?3.8 GHz were observed during an X3.4 flare/CME event from 02:30 to 04:30 UT in active region NOAA 10930 (S06W27) with the digital spectrometers of the National Astronomical Observatories of China (NAOC). During this event many spikes were detected with the high temporal resolution of 8 ms and high frequency resolution of 10 MHz. Many of them were found to have complex structures associated with other radio burst types. The new observational features may reflect certain emission signatures of the electron acceleration site. In this paper, we present the results of the analysis of the new observational features of the complex spikes. According to the observed properties of the spikes, we identify five classes. Their observational parameters, such as duration, bandwidth, and relative bandwidth, were determined. Most spikes had negative polarization, but spikes with positive polarization were observed during a short time interval and were identified as a separate class. Based on the analysis of observations with Hinode/SOT (Solar Optical Telescope) we suggest that the sources of the spikes with opposite polarizations were different. Combined observations of spikes and fiber bursts are used to estimate the magnetic field strength in the source.     

Solar Wind Sources in the Late Declining Phase of Cycle 23: Effects of the Weak Solar Polar Field on High Speed Streams

The declining phases of solar cycles are known for their high speed solar wind streams that dominate the geomagnetic responses during this period. Outstanding questions about these streams, which can provide the fastest winds of the solar cycle, concern their solar origins, persistence, and predictability. The declining phase of cycle 23 has lasted significantly longer than the corresponding phases of the previous two cycles. Solar magnetograph observations suggest that the solar polar magnetic field is also ～?2?–?3 times weaker. The launch of STEREO in late 2006 provided additional incentive to examine the origins of what is observed at 1 AU in the recent cycle, with the OMNI data base at the NSSDC available as an Earth/L1 baseline for comparisons. Here we focus on the year 2007 when the solar corona exhibited large, long-lived mid-to-low latitude coronal holes and polar hole extensions observed by both SOHO and STEREO imagers. STEREO provides in situ measurements consistent with rigidly corotating solar wind stream structure at up to ～?45° heliolongitude separation by late 2007. This stability justifies the use of magnetogram-based steady 3D solar wind models to map the observed high speed winds back to their coronal sources. We apply the WSA solar wind model currently running at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center with the expectation that it should perform its best at this quiet time. The model comparisons confirm the origins of the observed high speed streams expected from the solar images, but also reveal uncertainties in the solar wind source mapping associated with this cycle’s weaker solar polar fields. Overall, the results illustrate the importance of having accurate polar fields in synoptic maps used in solar wind forecast models. At the most fundamental level, they demonstrate the control of the solar polar fields over the high speed wind sources, and thus one specific connection between the solar dynamo and the solar wind character.     

Different Periodicities in the Sunspot Area and the Occurrence of Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections in Solar Cycle 23 – 24

In order to investigate the relationship between magnetic-flux emergence, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), we study the periodicity in the time series of these quantities. It has been known that solar flares, sunspot area, and photospheric magnetic flux have a dominant periodicity of about 155 days, which is confined to a part of the phase of the solar cycle. These periodicities occur at different phases of the solar cycle during successive phases. We present a time-series analysis of sunspot area, flare and CME occurrence during Cycle 23 and the rising phase of Cycle 24 from 1996 to 2011. We find that the flux emergence, represented by sunspot area, has multiple periodicities. Flares and CMEs, however, do not occur with the same period as the flux emergence. Using the results of this study, we discuss the possible activity sources producing emerging flux.     

The Solar Cycle 23?�C?24 Minimum. A Benchmark in Solar Variability and Effects in the Heliosphere

Given the numerous ground-based and space-based experiments producing the database for the Cycle 23??C?24 Minimum epoch from September 2008 to May 2009, we have an extraordinary opportunity to understand its effects throughout the heliosphere. We use solar radiative output in this period to obtain minimum values for three measures of the Sun??s radiative output: the total solar irradiance, the Mg ii index, and the 10.7 cm solar radio flux. The derived values are included in the research summaries as a means to exchange ideas and data for this long minimum in solar activity.     

The Magnetic Field at the Inner Boundary of the Heliosphere Around Solar Minimum

STEREO A and B observations of the radial magnetic field between 1 January 2007 and 31 October 2008 show significant evidence that in the heliosphere, the ambient radial magnetic field component with any dynamic effects removed is uniformly distributed. Based on this monopolar nature of the ambient heliospheric field we find that the surface beyond which the magnetic fields are in the monopolar configuration must be spherical, and this spherical surface can be defined as the inner boundary of the heliosphere that separates the monopole-dominated heliospheric magnetic field from the multipole-dominated coronal magnetic field. By using the radial variation of the coronal helmet streamers belts and the horizontal current – current sheet – source surface model we find that the spherical inner boundary of the heliosphere should be located around 14 solar radii near solar minimum phase.     

A Coherence-Based Approach for Tracking Waves in the Solar Corona

We consider the problem of automatically (and robustly) isolating and extracting information about waves and oscillations observed in EUV image sequences of the solar corona with a view to near real-time application to data from the Atmospheric Imaging Array (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). We find that a simple coherence/travel-time based approach detects and provides a wealth of information on transverse and longitudinal wave phenomena in the test sequences provided by the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE). The results of the search are pruned (based on diagnostic errors) to minimize false-detections such that the remainder provides robust measurements of waves in the solar corona, with the calculated propagation speed allowing automated distinction between various wave modes. In this paper we discuss the technique, present results on the TRACE test sequences, and describe how our method can be used to automatically process the enormous flow of data (≈1 Tb day⁻¹) that will be provided by SDO/AIA. Electronic Supplementary Material  The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.