Analyzing the genesis, intensity, and tracks of western Mediterranean cyclones

Midlatitude cyclones are analyzed on a selected region covering most of southern Europe and the western part of the Mediterranean Sea (35–50°N, 10°W–25°E). On the basis of mean sea level pressure fields of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast) Reanalysis Dataset (ERA-40), detailed evaluation of Mediterranean cyclones is accomplished for the period between 1957 and 2002 on a 1° horizontal resolution grid. Cyclone centers are identified and their paths are tracked with a 6-h time step (using 00 UTC, 06 UTC, 12 UTC, and 18 UTC). Decadal, annual, and seasonal statistical analysis of cyclone tracks includes the study of the genesis, frequency, and activity of the Mediterranean cyclones as well as the variability of cyclone tracks. The results suggest that the cyclone frequency in the western Mediterranean region increased in summer and autumn, and decreased in winter and spring. A special belt-shaped area is identified, which plays a special role in cyclogenesis, and also, the cyclone tracks often remain within this belt. An overall decreasing trend is detected in winter and spring in the entire Mediterranean belt, while cyclone frequency increased in autumn. The largest positive and negative trend coefficients are identified in summer.     

Peculiarities of mercury distribution,migration, and transformation in the estuarine area of the Northern Dvina River

The mercury concentration levels in the water of aquatic ecosystem of the Northern Dvina River delta are defined. The interrelations of mercury concentrations with physicochemical parameters of the water body, namely with pH, Eh, temperature, salinity, oxygen and organic matter content are studied. The dominant forms of mercury migration and its presence in the water are revealed. Regularities of changes and spatial variability of the mercury concentrations in the estuarine area of the river, peculiarities of mercury compound migration and transformation in the barrier zone of the Northern Dvina River-Dvina Bay of the White Sea are studied.     

基于中心轴线的北太平洋冬季风暴轴分类及其机理研究

利用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料研究了63年（1948～2010年）冬季北太平洋风暴轴的时空演变,提取风暴轴的中心轴线作为研究主体,以风暴轴的经向分布差异为重点,用模糊C均值聚类分析的方法将风暴轴分为平均型、偏北型和偏南型三类,并探讨了各类风暴轴对应的海气异常型及其物理机制。结果表明:（1）三类风暴轴分别显示了风暴轴经向差异的具体物理图像,对应着不同的涡旋移动发展路径,具有明确的天气学意义。通过EOF分解证明本文的分类反映了风暴轴的主要变化特征,物理意义清晰,具有一定的合理性和实用性。（2）三类风暴轴不仅经向差异明显,其北抬南压的纬向位置也存在显著差异,进一步表明该分类方法充分考虑了风暴轴空间分布的经向纬向差异,还揭示了风暴轴多中心的特点。（3）三类风暴轴对应的不同SST异常通过热力过程影响大气的温度场、风场和位势高度场,导致阿留申低压强度位置异常和水平风场异常,进而影响大气斜压性,决定风暴轴的空间分布,是形成不同类型风暴轴的重要原因。     

On the use of the Boussinesq equations,the reduced system,and the primitive equations for the computation of geophysical flows

Motivated in part by the mathematical problems associated with the application of open boundary conditions to the hydrostatic primitive equations (PE), Browning et al. (1990, Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 14: 303–332) proposed the use of the reduced system (RS) of equations to replace PE for oceanographic problems. The RS are essentially the Boussinesq equations (BO) with the non-hydrostatic terms in the vertical momentum equation multiplied by a constant δ² ? 1. This artificially alters the physics (e.g. changing the intemal-inertial wave properties) to facilitate numerical integration, but the changes are assumed to have negligible effects on the dynamics of interest. We assess the accuracy and utility of the RS (following the guidelines for the choice of δ) by comparing numerical finite difference solutions of RS, PE and BO for initial-value problems involving three-dimensional instability of an ocean front and atmospheric frontal development in a two-dimensional Eady wave. Both explicit (BO, PE) and semi-implicit (BOSI, PESI) time-difference schemes are used for the Boussinesq and primitive equations. For RS, the same explicit scheme as for BO is used where δ ? 1 allows larger time steps than with the other explicit models. It is found that relative to BO solutions, the errors for RS are small but increase rapidly and monotonically with increasing δ (over a range consistent with the guidelines) and are greater than the errors for the other models. The use of BOSI allows time steps at least as large as those for RS and results in smaller errors than RS. For these problems, BOSI is the preferable model to replace PE.     

Climatology of Ozone, PAN, CO, and NMHC in the Free Troposphere Over the Southern North Atlantic

Free tropospheric measurements of ozone, peroxyacetylnitrate andprecursors (CO, NMHC) that were made within the framework of the EUROTRACsub-project TOR (Tropospheric Ozone Research) between 1990 and 1995 at theGAW station Izana, Tenerife (28°18N, 16°30W) arediscussed. The average annual cycles reveal the importance of transport fromnorthern mid-latitudes and the role of photo-chemistry. According toair-mass trajectories, which were supplied to us from AEROCE(Atmosphere/Ocean Chemistry Experiment), transport from northernmid-latitudes is associated with high precursor concentrations in winter,whereas ozone concentrations in winter are not much influenced by transportpatterns, suggesting a rather uniform distribution over the northern part ofthe Northern Hemisphere around mean value of 43 ± 5 ppb. In summer,high ozone concentrations of up to 90 ppb are often encountered duringtransport from north, while the levels of precursors are much lower than inwinter, because of photochemical destruction. Trajectories from southerlylatitudes and the Sahara usually have the lowest ozone concentrationsassociated with them.     

Preliminary Comparison of the CMA, ECMWF, NCEP, and JMA Ensemble Prediction Systems

Based on The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) dataset,using various verification methods,the performances of four typical ense...     

Climate change, water resources, and the politics of adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa

Through an examination of global climate change models combined with hydrological data on deteriorating water quality in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), we elucidate the ways in which the MENA countries are vulnerable to climate-induced impacts on water resources. Adaptive governance strategies, however, remain a low priority for political leaderships in the MENA region. To date, most MENA governments have concentrated the bulk of their resources on large-scale supply side projects such as desalination, dam construction, inter-basin water transfers, tapping fossil groundwater aquifers, and importing virtual water. Because managing water demand, improving the efficiency of water use, and promoting conservation will be key ingredients in responding to climate-induced impacts on the water sector, we analyze the political, economic, and institutional drivers that have shaped governance responses. While the scholarly literature emphasizes the importance of social capital to adaptive governance, we find that many political leaders and water experts in the MENA rarely engage societal actors in considering water risks. We conclude that the key capacities for adaptive governance to water scarcity in MENA are underdeveloped.     

Characteristics, Processes, and Causes of the Spatio-temporal Variabilities of the East Asian Monsoon System

Recent advances in the study of the characteristics, processes, and causes of spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) system are reviewed in this paper. The understanding of the EAM system has improved in many aspects:the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures, the annual cycle of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) system, the characteristics of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the EASM system and the EAWM system, and especially the multiple modes of the EAM system and their spatio-temporal variabilities. Some new results have also been achieved in understanding the atmosphere-ocean interaction and atmosphere-land interaction processes that affect the variability of the EAM system. Based on recent studies, the EAM system can be seen as more than a circulation system, it can be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, namely, the EAM climate system. In addition, further progress has been made in diagnosing the internal physical mechanisms of EAM climate system variability, especially regarding the characteristics and properties of the East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection over East Asia and the North Pacific, the "Silk Road" teleconnection along the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere over the Asian continent, and the dynamical effects of quasi-stationary planetary wave activity on EAM system variability. At the end of the paper, some scientific problems regarding understanding the EAM system variability are proposed for further study.     

Estimates of the maximum land-fast ice thickness probable once in 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years

Presented are the empirical, nonparametric (quantile), parametric, and randomized estimates of the maximum land-fast ice thickness in the Northern Caspian probable once in 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. The annual maxima of the land-fast ice thickness for the 72-year period from 1937 to 2008 are computed using the one-dimensional thermodynamic model of the sea ice developed at Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute.     

Laboratory study of the rates and products of the phototransformations of naphthalene adsorbed on samples of titanium dioxide,ferric oxide,muscovite, and fly ash

The photodegradation of naphthalene (NPH), chosen as a model of polynuclear aromatic pollutants, has been studied in the presence of a layer of four water-insoluble inorganic solids which can be found in the troposphere (TiO₂, Fe₂O₃, muscovite, and a fly ash sample). Direct photolysis of NPH is negligible at >340 nm. Dark adsorption of NPH on TiO₂ (mainly anatase, nonporous, 50 m² g^–1) at 293 K corresponds to a surface coverage ofca. 50% at equilibrium. Under these conditions (saturated surface), the stationary-state photocatalytic degradation reaches 0.4 molecule nm^–2 h^–1 (>340 nm, radiant fluxca. 22 mW cm^–2). Dioxygen is required and its partial pressure in air is such that the degradation is zero order in O₂. Water vapor markedly increases the rate. The other particulates have also an effect, less important than that of TiO₂, however quite noticeable with respect to surface area unit for the fly ash sample which contains 3.2% Fe₂O₃. Apart from 1,4-naphthoquinone, which is the main intermediate product in all cases, 2-naphthol, phthalide, phthaldialdehyde, phthalic acid, acetophenone, benzaldehyde, benzoic acid are also formed on dry TiO₂. Depending on their volatility, these compounds are transferred to the gas phase or remain principally adsorbed on the solid particles where they are further transformed. For instance, phthalic acid (or anhydride) and benzoic acid are generated from 1,4-naphthoquinone. Degradation mechanisms are briefly discussed.     

On the Heat Islands of Washington,DC, and New York City,NY

Data collected in 2007 from a dense commercial network (operated by AWS Convergence Technologies, Inc.) of roof-mounted temperature sensors are used to explore the heat island characteristics of Washington, DC, and New York City, NY. Considerable spatial detail is revealed, but aggregating data in annuli centered on assumed central locations in the business districts of the two cities reveals that the heat islands extend out to more than 30 km, with the New York City island being somewhat larger. The results from both arrays reveal the influence of the surroundings, with large scatter of daytime results being characteristic of sites with the greatest local surface inhomogeneity. Nighttime data are more ordered, and suggest that surface air temperatures decrease by about 0.02°C km⁻¹ for the Washington case, and 0.04°C km⁻¹ for New York, with the winter behaviour being more pronounced than for other seasons. Scatter of the data in the daytime is a common feature for all seasons, but mainly for those with the strongest insolation. Comparison between working day and weekend temperatures provides convincing verification that the air responds quite slowly to changes in surface (radiometric) temperatures, with distance constants of the order of many tens of km. There appears to be a small wind speed effect, which is evident in the nighttime data but is largely obscured by scatter for the daytime.     

Modern climate-related changes in heat supply,moistening, and productivity of the agrosphere in Russia

Climate changes observed in recent decades are analyzed, and the respective climate-related tendencies of changes in heat supply, moistening, and productivity of the agrosphere that determine the natural resourse of potential Russia are determined. The grain crop yield trends are used additionally as climate change indicators. It is shown that climate changes observed in the last 30 years promote the increase in potential agriculture productivity in most of the Russian Federation, where not less than 85% of agricultural products are produced. At the same time, the increase in climate aridity is observed in several regions of Siberia and Chernozem Center, which results in a reduced productivity of agriculture.     

Analysis of changes in the magnitude,frequency, and seasonality of heavy precipitation over the contiguous USA

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Gridded daily precipitation observations over the contiguous USA are used to investigate the past observed changes in the frequency and magnitude of heavy...     

Crop booms at the forest frontier: Triggers,reinforcing dynamics,and the diffusion of knowledge and norms

Crop booms in forest frontiers are a major contributor to deforestation and global change. Because of their non-linearity, intensity, and unpredictability, booms are specific instances of land change, namely land system regime shifts, which require an analysis going beyond that of their drivers or individual actors’ decisions. So far, the combined effect of behavioral dynamics at the household, village, and higher levels, which are often mutually-reinforcing, have not been considered in the empirical analysis of crop booms. In this paper, we aim to further the understanding and the theory behind the dynamics of crop booms and land regime shifts. We focus on the smallholder-driven northern Laos rubber boom and analyze two case study areas with different intensity of rubber expansion. We use a combination of household surveys and interviews with villagers, government officials and private sector actors to analyze the preconditions, triggers and reinforcing effects at household and higher levels that help explain the timing and extent of the boom. In particular, we focus on the role of information transmission and imitation in household decisions to adopt and expand rubber. Our findings show that the rapid expansion of rubber in northern Laos was in part the result of household decisions spurred by economic and policy triggers that changed the real and perceived benefits of growing rubber. In addition, there were higher-level and mutually-reinforcing dynamics, such as the conversion of village communal forests, a rush for land, and individual behavior contingent on others’, including imitation. The transmission of information through social networks played a key role in rubber adoption decisions, but the diffusion of new norms and values was also important and may have accelerated adoption decisions. Rubber adoption and expansion decisions thus had normative and informational, as well as knowledge-based and imitation components.     

The Role of Aerosol in Climate Change, the Environment, and Human Health

Aerosol is an important component of the atmosphere, and its source, composition, distribution, and effects are highly complicated. Governments and scientists have given much attention to aerosol problems, and it has become a hot topic due to the important role it plays in climate change and the Earth’s environment. In this paper, 1) the importance of aerosol in climate change, the atmospheric environment, and human health is summarized; 2) the recent serious problems of aerosol pollution and the shortage of current aerosol research in China are pointed out; and 3) the necessity to enhance aerosol research in China is emphasized.     

Global warming estimates,media expectations,and the asymmetry of scientific challenge

Mass media in the U.S. continue to suggest that scientific consensus estimates of global climate disruption, such as those from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), are “exaggerated” and overly pessimistic. By contrast, work on the Asymmetry of Scientific Challenge (ASC) suggests that such consensus assessments are likely to understate climate disruptions. This paper offers an initial test of the competing expectations, making use of the tendency for science to be self-correcting, over time. Rather than relying in any way on the IPCC process, the paper draws evidence about emerging science from four newspapers that have been found in past work to be biased against reporting IPCC findings, consistently reporting instead that scientific findings are “in dispute.” The analysis considers two time periods — one during the time when the papers were found to be overstating challenges to then-prevailing scientific consensus, and the other focusing on 2008, after the IPCC and former Vice-President Gore shared the Nobel Prize for their work on climate disruption, and before opinion polls showed the U.S. public to be growing more skeptical toward climate science once again. During both periods, new scientific findings were more than twenty times as likely to support the ASC perspective than the usual framing of the issue in the U.S. mass media. The findings indicate that supposed challenges to the scientific consensus on global warming need to be subjected to greater scrutiny, as well as showing that, if reporters wish to discuss “both sides” of the climate issue, the scientifically legitimate “other side” is that, if anything, global climate disruption may prove to be significantly worse than has been suggested in scientific consensus estimates to date.     

Parameterization of the Absorption of the H_2O Continuum,CO_2,O_2,and Other Trace Gases in the Fu-Liou Solar Radiation Program

The absorption properties of the water vapor continuum and a number of weak bands for H2O, O2, CO2, CO, N2O, CH4, and O3 in the solar spectrum are incorporated into the Fu-Liou radiation parameterization program by using the correlated k-distribution method (CKD) for the sorting of absorption lines. The overlap absorption of the H2O lines and the H2O continuum (2500-14500 cm-1) are treated by taking the two gases as a single-mixture gas in transmittance calculations. Furthermore, in order to optimize the computation efforts, CO2 and CH4 in the spectral region 2850-5250 cm-1 are taken as a new single-mixture gas as well. For overlap involving other absorption lines in the Fu-Liou spectral bands, the authors adopt the multiplication rule for transmittance computations under which the absorption spectra for two gases are assumed to be uncorrelated. Compared to the line-by-line (LBL) computation, it is shown that the errors in fluxes introduced by these two approaches within the context of the CKD method are small and less than 0.48% for the H2O line and continuum in the 2500-14500 cm-1 solar spectral region, -1% for H2O (line) H2O (continuum) CO2 CH4 in the spectral region 2850-5250 cm-1, and -1.5% for H2O (line) H2O (continuum) O2 in the 7700-14500 cm-1 spectral region. Analysis also demonstrates that the multiplication rule over a spectral interval as wide as 6800 cm-1 can produce acceptable errors with a maximum percentage value of about 2% in reference to the LBL calculation. Addition of the preceding gases increases the absorption of solar radiation under all sky conditions. For clear sky, the increase in instantaneous solar absorption is about 9%-13% (~12 W m~2) among which the H2O continuum produces the largest increase, while the contributions from O2 and CO2 rank second and third, respectively. In cloudy sky, the addition of absorption amounts to about 6-9 W m-2. The new, improved program with the incorporation of the preceding gases produces a smaller solar absorption in clouds due to the reduced solar flux reaching the cloud top.     

Parameterization of the Absorption of the H2O Continuum, CO2, O2, and Other Trace Gases in the Fu-Liou Solar Radiation Program

The absorption properties of the water vapor continuum and a number of weak bands for H2O, O2, CO2, CO, N2O, CH4, and O3 in the solar spectrum are incorporated into the Fu-Liou radiation parameterization program by using the correlated k-distribution method (CKD) for the sorting of absorption lines. The overlap absorption of the H2O lines and the H2O continuum (2500-14500 cm^-1) are treated by taking the two gases as a single-mixture gas in transmittance calculations. Furthermore, in order to optimize the computation efforts, CO2 and CH4 in the spectral region 2850-5250 cm^-1 are taken as a new singlemixture gas as well. For overlap involving other absorption lines in the Fu-Liou spectral bands, the authors adopt the multiplication rule for transmittance computations under which the absorption spectra for two gases are assumed to be uncorrelated. Compared to the line-by-line (LBL) computation, it is shown that the errors in fluxes introduced by these two approaches within the context of the CKD method are small and less than 0.48% for the H20 line and continuum in the 2500-14500 cm^-1 solar spectral region, -1% for H2O (line) H2O (continuum) CO2 CH4 in the spectral region 2850-5250 cm^-1, and -1.5% for H2O (line) H2O (continuum) O2 in the 7700-14500 cm^-1 spectral region. Analysis also demonstrates that the multiplication rule over a spectral interval as wide as 6800 cm^-1 can produce acceptable errors with a maximum percentage value of about 2% in reference to the LBL calculation. Addition of the preceding gases increases the absorption of solar radiation under all sky conditions. For clear sky, the increase in instantaneous solar absorption is about 9%-13% (-12 W m^-2) among which the H20 continuum produces the largest increase, while the contributions from O2 and CO2 rank second and third, respectively. In cloudy sky, the addition of absorption amounts to about 6-9 W m^-2. The new, improved program with the incorporation of the preceding gases produces a smaller solar absorption in clouds due to the reduced solar flux reaching the cloud top.     

Particulate Amines in the Background Atmosphere of the Yangtze River Delta,China: Concentration,Size Distribution,and Sources

Amines are important for new particle formation and subsequent growth in the atmosphere. Consequently, the processes involved are receiving more attention in recent years. Here, we conduct a field observation in order to investigate the atmospheric particulate amines at a background site in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) during the summer of 2018.Four amines in PM_(2.5), i.e., methylamine(MA), dimethylamine(DMA), diethylamine(DEA), and trimethylamine(TMA),were collected, twice daily and analyzed. During the campaign, our measurements found the concentrations of MA, DMA,DEA, and TMA of 15.0 ± 15.0, 6.3 ± 6.9, 20.4 ± 30.1, and 4.0 ± 5.9 ng m–3, respectively, and the four amines correlated well with each other. The concentration of amines appear to be independent of whether they were collected during the day or night. Both MA and DMA exhibited a bimodal size distribution that had peaks at 0.67 and 1.1 μm, suggesting amines preferably distribute on submicron particles. Boundary layer height(BLH), relative humidity, and pH of aerosols were found have a negative relationship with amines, while aerosol liquid water content(ALWC) was found to have a positive relationship with amines. The PMF(positive matrix factorization) source apportionment results showed that the main source of amines in Chongming Island was of anthropogenic origin such as industrial and biomass emission, followed by marine sources including sea salt and marine biogenic sources. Given that the YRD region is still suffering from complex atmospheric pollution and that the knowledge on aerosol amines is still limited, more field studies are in urgent need for a better understanding of the pollution characteristics of amines.     

How adoption rates, timing, and ceilings affect the value of ENSO-based climate forecasts

An international wheat trade model incorporating climate variability is used to simulate different scenarios when wheat producers in the USA, Canada, and Australia adopt El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based climate forecasts for use in production decisions. Adoption timing and rates are varied across countries in the different scenarios. The results are consistent between the scenarios examined. Early adopters benefit the most, there is no incentive for more producers to adopt after 60 to 95% have adopted (meaning the adoption ceiling has been reached), and slower adoption corresponds to ceilings closer to 60 than 95%. When individual countries must decide whether or not to invest in ENSO technology and producer education programs to encourage adoption, results indicate the dominant strategy for each country is to invest. This is especially true if producers in other countries are adopting the use of climate forecasts.