Modelling the response of glaciers to a doubling in atmospheric CO2: a case study of Storglaciären, northern Sweden

To predict the evolution of glaciers in an enhanced greenhouse climate, results from a global climate model, a glacier melt/accumulation model, and a glacier flow model were combined. The method was applied to Storglaciären, a small well-studied glacier in northern Sweden. The difference between the present climate and a 2 × CO₂ climate around the year 2050 was extracted from a model experiment with the ECHAM4-T106 high resolution climate model for time slices at present and in 2050, using prescribed boundary conditions of sea surface temperature and sea-ice distribution, which are derived from a lower resolution transient run of the ECHAM4-T42/OPIC-coupled atmosphere ocean model between present and 2050. The local climatic conditions on the glacier for 2050 were obtained by adding the modelled local climate changes to the observed local present-day climate. The combination of the comprehensive models presented offers a tool to test and calibrate simplified models which are applicable to a much larger sample of glaciers. For the region of Storglaciären, the GCM projected temperature is found to increase most strongly during the winter months, but also shows a warming during the transition from spring to summer, and again between summer and fall, thus extending the melt season by three to four weeks. Precipitation, on the other hand, decreases by approximately 5% during May to September while there is a stronger increase of approximately 14% for the rest of the year. The consequent increase in winter accumulation on Storglaciären is more than compensated by the increase in ablation during the melt season. The glacier flow model predicts a 300 m retreat of the glacier terminus by the middle of the next century, and a loss of 30% of the present ice mass.     

Fluctuations in annual cycles and inter-seasonal memory in West Africa: rainfall, soil moisture and heat fluxes

Summary Annual cycle and inter-seasonal persistence of surface-atmosphere water and heat fluxes are analyzed at a 5-day time step over the West African Monsoon (WAM) through observational precipitation estimates (CMAP), model datasets (NCEP/DOE level 2 reanalyses) and a Soil Water Index (SWI) from the ERS scatterometer. Coherent fluctuations (30–90 days) distinct from supra-synoptic variability (10–25 day periods) are first detected in the WAM precipitation and heat fluxes over the period 1979–2001. During all the northward excursion of the WAM rain band, a succession of four active phases (abrupt rainfall increases) occurs. They are centered in the first days of March, mid-April, the second half of May and from the last week of June to mid-July (the Sahelian onset). A simple statistical approach shows that the Spring to Summer installation of the monsoon tends to be sensitive to these short periods. Other analyses suggest the existence of lagged relationship between rainfall amounts registered in successive Fall, Spring (active periods) and Summer (top of the rainy season) implying land surface conditions. The spatial extension of the generated soil moisture anomalies reaches one maximum in March, mainly at the Guinean latitudes and over the Sahelian belt where the signal can persist until the next monsoon onset. Typically after abnormal wet conditions in September–October two signals are observed: (1) more marked fluctuations in Spring with less (more) Sahelian rainfall in May (June and after) at the Sahelian-Sudanian latitudes; (2) wetter rainy seasons along the Guinean coast (in Spring and Summer with an advance in the mean date of the ‘little dry season’). The reverse arises after abnormal dry conditions in autumn.     

Impact of moisture flux convergence and soil moisture on precipitation: a case study for the southern United States with implications for the globe

Interactions between soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), atmospheric moisture fluxes and precipitation are complex. It is difficult to attribute the variations of one variable to another. In this study, we investigate the influence of atmospheric moisture fluxes and land surface soil moisture on local precipitation, with a focus on the southern United States (U.S.), a region with a strong humidity gradient and intense moisture fluxes. Experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting model show that the variation of moisture flux convergence (MFC) is more important than that of soil moisture for precipitation variation over the southern U.S. Further analyses decompose the precipitation change into several contributing factors and show that MFC affects precipitation both directly through changing moisture inflow (wet areas) and indirectly by changing the precipitation efficiency (transitional zones). Soil moisture affects precipitation mainly by changing the precipitation efficiency, and secondly through direct surface ET contribution. The greatest soil moisture effects are over transitional zones. MFC is more important for the probability of heavier rainfall; soil moisture has much weaker impact on rainfall probability and its roles are similar for the probability of intermediate-to-heavy rainfall (>10 mm day^?1). Although MFC is more important than soil moisture for precipitation over most regions, the impact of soil moisture could be large over certain transitional regions. At the submonthly time scale, the African Sahel appears to be the only major region where soil moisture has a greater impact than MFC on precipitation. This study provides guidance to understanding and further investigation of the roles of local land surface processes and large-scale circulations on precipitation.     

Enhanced climatic warming in the Tibetan Plateau due to doubling CO2: a model study

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) regional climate model (RegCM2), together with initial conditions and time-dependent lateral boundary conditions provided by a 130-year transient increasing CO₂ simulation of the NCAR Climate System Model (CSM), has been used to investigate the mechanism of ground warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The model results show that when CO₂ in the atmosphere is doubled, a strong ground warming occurs in the TP. Two regions within it with the largest warming are in the eastern TP (region I) and along the southwestern and western slopes (region II). Moreover, in region I the ground warming in the winter half year is stronger than that in the summer half year, but in region II the warming difference between the seasons becomes opposite to that in region I, i.e., the warming is strong in the summer half year and weak in the winter half year. There are indications that the summer monsoon enhances but the winter monsoon weakens when CO₂ is doubled. A strong elevation dependency of ground warming is found in region I for the winter half year, and in region II for both winter and summer half years at elevations below 5 km. The simulated characteristics of ground warming in the TP are consistent with the observations. In region I, when CO₂ is doubled, the cloud amount increases at lower elevations and decreases at higher elevation for the winter half year. As a consequence, at lower elevations the short wave solar radiation absorbed at the surface declines, and the downward long wave flux reaching the surface enhances; on the other hand, at higher elevations the surface solar radiation flux increases and the surface infrared radiation flux shows a more uniform increase. The net effect of the changes in both radiation fluxes is an enhanced surface warming at higher elevations, which is the primary cause of the elevation dependency in the surface warming. In the summer half year the cloud amount reduces as a result of doubling CO₂ in region I for all elevations, and there is no elevation dependency detected in the ground warming. Furthermore, there is little snow existing in region I for both summer and winter half years, and the impact of snow-albedo feedback is not significant. In region II, although the changes in the cloud amount bear a resemblance to those in region I, the most significant factor affecting the surface energy budget is the depletion of the snow cover at higher elevations, which leads to a reduction of the surface albedo. This reduction in turn leads to an enhancement in the solar radiation absorbed in the surface. The snow-albedo feedback mechanism is the most essential cause of the elevation dependency in the surface warming for region II.     

A case study of the improvement of soil moisture initialization in IAP-PSSCA

A prediction system is employed to investigate the potential use of a soil moisture initialization scheme in seasonal precipitation prediction through a case study of severe floods in 1998. The results show that driving the model with reasonable initial soil moisture distribution is helpful for precipitation prediction,and the initialization scheme is easy to use in operational prediction.     

Atmospheric moisture budget and floods in the Yangtze River basin, China

In this paper, we explored the trends of the atmospheric moisture budget, precipitation, and streamflow in summer during 1961 to 2005 and possible correlations between them by using the linear regression method in the Yangtze River basin, China. The results indicate that: (1) increasing tendencies can be detected in the atmospheric moisture budget, precipitation and streamflow in the Yangtze River basin; however, the significant increasing trends occur only in the atmospheric moisture budget and precipitation in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin; (2) both the ratio of summer moisture budget to annual moisture budget and the ratio of summer precipitation to annual precipitation exhibit a significant increasing trend in the Yangtze River basin. The ratio of summer streamflow to annual streamflow is in a significant increasing trend in Hankou station. Significant increasing summer precipitation can be taken as the major controlling factor responsible for the higher probability of flood hazard occurrences in the Yangtze River basin. The consecutively increasing summer precipitation is largely due to the consistently increasing moisture budget; (3) the zonal geopotential height anomaly between 1991 and 2005 and 1961 and 1990 is higher from the south to the north, which to a large degree, limits the northward propagation of the summer monsoon to north China. As a result, the summer moisture budget increases in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin, which leads to more summer precipitation. This paper sheds light on the changing properties of precipitation and streamflow and possible underlying causes, which will be greatly helpful for better understanding of the changes of precipitation and streamflow in the Yangtze River basin.     

Changes of pan evaporation and reference evapotranspiration in the Yangtze River basin

Summary For the upper and mid-lower Yangtze River basin trends of pan evaporation and reference evapotranspiration are analysed from 1961 to 2000 using daily data of 115 stations. Both pan evaporation and reference evapotranspiration decreased during the summer months contributing most to the total annual reduction. This trend is more significant in the mid-lower than in the upper Yangtze reaches. The decreasing trends can be associated with trends in net radiation and wind speed. Results are compared with the 20th century evaporation simulated by the general circulation model (GCM, ECHAM5/MPI-OM). Also the GCM’s actual evaporation decreases contrasting an overall increase in air temperature.     

A note to the simulation of the annual and inter-annual variability of the water budget over the Baltic Sea drainage basin

Summary The annual and inter-annual variability of the water budget over the Baltic Sea area has been studied using the global climate model ECHAM4/T106 and the regional climate model REMO for three experiments covering a time period of 10 years each. To address the capability of REMO to simulate realistically the water budget over the Baltic Sea re-analyses data (so-called perfect boundaries) were applied as lateral boundary conditions. The validation against observations shows that the results agree rather well. However not all components of the hydrological cycle are observed, therefore only some of them could be compared to the simulation results. A clear dependence of the annual cycle of precipitation from the horizontal resolution was found in the experiments. Until now it is still unclear which processes are responsible for this. Further research will help to identify the sensitive physical processes involved in the water budget and their interactions. Received September 8, 2000 Revised April 3, 2001     

Changes of time mean state and variability of hydrology in response to a doubling and quadrupling of CO2

This paper examines the subject of hydrologic variability and its changes in two separate integrations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA assuming a 1% per year increase to a doubling and quadrupling of CO₂, respectively. Changes in time mean state and variability of precipitation, runoff and soil moisture are evaluated using monthly and seasonal mean data derived from these integrations. Various statistical tests are then performed on the resulting time mean and variability changes. The patterns of hydrologic change for these three quantities are similar to those obtained from previous studies. In northern middle to higher latitudes for the time means, the changes include increases in monthly mean precipitation, increases in monthly mean runoff during the fall, winter and spring seasons and decreases of monthly mean soil moisture during summer. Many of these changes are found to be statistically significant at the 5% significance level for both the time mean and variability especially for the results where CO₂ is quadrupled such as monthly mean precipitation. Significant changes also include increases of runoff variability during spring, winter and spring and increases of soil moisture variability during the summer season. These results support statements made in previous IPCC reports that increasing greenhouse gases can lead to more severe and frequent floods and droughts depending upon season and latitude. This study also indicates that the approaches to equilibrium of these two integrations, and the resulting hydrologic changes, take place over time scales of hundreds of years in agreement with several previous investigations.     

Use of a soil moisture network for drought monitoring in the Czech Republic

Since 2000, the network of stations that make up the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) has measured the soil moisture content at the 0- to 0.9-m layer using sensors placed within the natural soil profile under closely cropped grass cover. Using information from 8?years of continuous observation at seven stations throughout the Czech Republic, we verified the usefulness of the Soil Moisture Index (SMI). The SMI is a potentially useful index for calculating the water deficit in the Czech Republic and Central Europe. During this period, a statistically significant decrease in moisture content was detected, and negative SMI values predominated. There were frequent occurrences of flash drought, defined as a very rapid decline in soil moisture during a 3-week period. The CHMI can use SMI values below ?3 in the Integrated Warning Service System. The routine calculation of SMI values can alert agricultural producers to the development of flash drought conditions and provide them with information regarding the effectiveness of recent rainfall events. An increase in soil moisture, in contrast, could serve as a warning sign for hydrology because it creates the preconditions for flooding. The complex study of soil humidity regimes is becoming more significant in connection with current global climatic change warnings in hydrological cycles.     

On the meridional distribution of climate changes due to doubling of CO2 content in the atmosphere

Summary A two-dimensional radiative-convective model has been developed to calculate mean annual zonally-averaged temperature profiles for 18 latitudinal belts each of 10° width. The model includes meridional heat transport and impacts of surface albedo and lapse rate feedback mechanisms. In view of its flexibility and computational efficiency compared to a three-dimensional general circulation model, this model may serve as a useful tool in studying the climate sensitivity to external forcings.The model has been successfully applied to reproduce the meridional variation of climatic elements for the standard atmosphere. Next, the climate sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ has been examined. The surface temperature response ranges from 1.6 °C near the equator to 4 °C in polar regions with a global mean of 2.1 °C. The meridional distribution of surface warming due to doubled CO₂ simulated by our model agrees qualitatively with those obtained by NCAR and GFDL global circulation models in that the largest warmings in all three simulations are found at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. An interesting feature of our findings is that the maximum response due to doubled CO₂ tends to descend from the upper troposphere at low latitudes to the surface at high latitudes. The responses of the transport of sensible and latent heat are in opposite direction thus leading to only slight but positive changes in the total meridional heat flux.

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Zusammenfassung Es wurde ein zweidimensionales Strahlungs-Konvektions-Modell entwickelt, um zonal gemittelte Temperaturprofile für 10° breite Gürtel zu berechnen. Das Modell beinhaltet meridionalen Wärmetransport, Einflüsse der Albedo und des vertikalen Temperaturgradienten. Aufgrund seiner Flexibilität und rechnerischen Effizienz im Vergleich zu dreidimensionalen Modellen der allgemeinen Zirkulation, kann dieses Modell gut zum Studium der Sensitivität des Klimas auf äußere Antriebe verwendet werden.Das Modell wurde zuerst erfolgreich angewandt, um die meridionale Variabilität der Klimaelemente für die Standardatmosphäre zu reproduzieren. Dann wurde die Sensitivität gegenüber einer Verdoppelung des atmosphärischen CO₂ untersucht. Die Veränderungen an der Erdoberfläche reichten von 1.6 °C nahe dem Äquator bis zu 4 °C in Polnähe mit einem globalen Mittel von 2.1 °C. Die meridionale Verteilung stimmt qualitativ mit den Modellergebnissen von NCAR und GFDL überein. Alle prognostizieren die größten Erwärmungen in den hohen Breiten der Nordhemisphäre. Ein interessantes Ergebnis dieser Untersuchung ist, daß die größte Erwärmung von der oberen Troposphäre in niedrigen Breiten in hohen Breiten zur Oberfläche absinkt. Die Prognosen für die Änderung des Transports von fühlbarer und iatenter Wärme zeigen den umgekehrten Effekt. Das führt zu einem geringen Anstieg des meridionalen Wärmeflusses.

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With 9 Figures     

Sensitivity of evapotranspiration of cotton and sorghum in west Texas to changes in climate and CO2

Summary In regions such as west Texas where water is scarce, changes in the water balance may have a significant impact on agricultural production and management of water resources. We used the mechanistic soil-plant-atmosphere simulation model ENWATBAL to evaluate changes in soil water evaporation (E) and transpiration (T) in cotton and grain sorghum that may occur due to climate change and elevated CO₂ in west Texas. Climatic and plant factors were varied individually, and in combination, to determine their impact onE andT. Of the climatic factors,E was most sensitive to changes in vapor pressure, andT to changes in irradiance. Simulations suggest that if warming is accompanied by higher humidity, the impact of climate change may be minimal. However, if the climate becomes warmer and less humid,ET may increase substantially. Simulations also suggest that enhanced growth due to elevated CO₂ may have a greater impact onET than climatic change.With 9 Figures     

Climate change in the Paraná state,Brazil: responses to increasing atmospheric CO 2 in reference evapotranspiration

The hydrological variable evapotranspiration (ET) is challenging to estimate because it cannot be measured directly in natural environments (except in small plots). The uncertainties associated with the models used for its prediction have increased under climate change conditions. We studied the influence of stomatal resistance on ET estimates using the Penman-Monteith method as projected by three general circulation models in two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for future climates throughout the twenty-first century (2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099). We also investigated the probable ET rate changes in relation to the current (30 years average, 1980–2009) climate conditions for the Paraná state in the southern region of Brazil. The results were regionalized to help policymakers assess climate change impacts and design adaptation measures. ET increases of up to 15% were found in future climate conditions, which may lead to a significant increase in the water demand for agricultural crops. However, we believe that plant morphophysiological changes may occur under atmospheric CO2 enrichment conditions and that a possible reduction in stomatal conductance will result in lower ET increases than those obtained with the traditional Penman-Monteith method. When considering future climate scenarios, we propose the equation be adjusted to consider stomatal resistance as a function of CO2 concentrations.     

EMIC Intercomparison Project (EMIP–CO2): comparative analysis of EMIC simulations of climate, and of equilibrium and transient responses to atmospheric CO2 doubling

An intercomparison of eight EMICs (Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity) is carried out to investigate the variation and scatter in the results of simulating (1) the climate characteristics at the prescribed 280 ppm atmosphere CO₂ concentration, and (2) the equilibrium and transient responses to CO₂ doubling in the atmosphere. The results of the first part of this intercomparison suggest that EMICs are in reasonable agreement with the present-day observational data. The dispersion of the EMIC results by and large falls within the range of results of General Circulation Models (GCMs), which took part in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 1 (CMIP1). Probable reasons for the observed discrepancies among the EMIC simulations of climate characteristics are analysed. A scenario with gradual increase in CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere (1% per year compounded) during the first 70 years followed by a stabilisation at the 560 ppm level during a period longer than 1,500 years is chosen for the second part of this intercomparison. It appears that the EMIC results for the equilibrium and transient responses to CO₂ doubling are within the range of the corresponding results of GCMs, which participated in the atmosphere-slab ocean model intercomparison project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 2 (CMIP2). In particular EMICs show similar temperature and precipitation changes with comparable magnitudes and scatter across the models as found in the GCMs. The largest scatter in the simulated response of precipitation to CO₂ change occurs in the subtropics. Significant differences also appear in the magnitude of sea ice cover reduction. Each of the EMICs participating in the intercomparison exhibits a reduction of the strength of the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic under CO₂ doubling, with the maximum decrease occurring between 100 and 300 years after the beginning of the transient experiment. After this transient reduction, whose minimum notably varies from model to model, the strength of the thermohaline circulation increases again in each model, slowly rising back to a new equilibrium.     

Relationships between surface albedo,soil thermal parameters and soil moisture in the semi-arid area of Tongyu,northeastern China

Continuous observation data collected over the whole year of 2004 on a cropland surtace m Tongyu, a senti-arid area of northeastern China （44°25＇N, 122°52＇E）, have been used to investigate the variations of surface albedo and soil thermal parameters, including heat capacity, thermal conductivity and thermal diffusivity, and their relationships to soil moisture. The diurnal variation of surface albedo appears as a U shape curve on sunny days. Surface albedo decreases with the increase of solar elevation angle, and it tends to be a constant when solar elevation angle is larger than 40°. So the daily average surface albedo was computed using the data when solar elevation angle is larger than 40° Mean daily surface albedo is found to decrease with the increase of soil moisture, showing an exponential dependence on soil moisture. The variations of soil heat capacity are small during Julian days 90 300. Compared with the heat capacity, soil thermal conductivity has very gentle variations during this period, but the soil thermal diffusivity has wide variations during the same period. The soil thermal conductivity is found to increase as a power function of soil moisture. The soil thermal diffusivity increases firstly and then decreases with the increase of soil moisture.     

On the interannual variability of precipitation and runoff in the Mackenzie drainage basin

An analysis is presented of extratropical cyclone frequency, the 500 hPa height standard deviation field and the monthly 700 hPa height field in the Northern Hemisphere, together with precipitation in the Mackenzie basin and the Mackenzie River runoff. Spatial and temporal variability in the data are examined for the period 1965 to 1989, and a cross-correlation analyses is performed to determine the relationship between the runoff and the precipitation variations, and between the precipitation and the atmospheric circulation anomalies. It is found that precipitation fluctuations in the Mackenzie River drainage basin are strongly linked to variations in the Mackenzie River runoff and in the North Pacific storm tracks, with the time scale of variability ranging from interannual to decadal. The results are discussed in relation to the interdecadal Arctic climate cycle proposed by Mysak, Manak and Marsden, and revised by Mysak and Power. In particular, the latter authors hypothesized that, as part of this cycle, air-sea interactions and synoptic scale processes over the northwestern North Atlantic influenced, via cyclone movements in the Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay, precipitation in northern Canada and hence river runoff into the Arctic. The results of this study indicate that such influences on the precipitation in the Mackenzie basin are small, and hence that the Mysak-Power feedback loop which describes this climate cycle needs further revision.     

Evaluation of SDSM developed by annual and monthly sub-models for downscaling temperature and precipitation in the Jhelum basin, Pakistan and India

The study evaluates statistical downscaling model (SDSM) developed by annual and monthly sub-models for downscaling maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation, and assesses future changes in climate in the Jhelum River basin, Pakistan and India. Additionally, bias correction is applied on downscaled climate variables. The mean explained variances of 66, 76, and 11 % for max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation, respectively, are obtained during calibration of SDSM with NCEP predictors, which are selected through a quantitative procedure. During validation, average R ² values by the annual sub-model (SDSM-A)—followed by bias correction using NCEP, H3A2, and H3B2—lie between 98.4 and 99.1 % for both max and min temperature, and 77 to 85 % for precipitation. As for the monthly sub-model (SDSM-M), followed by bias correction, average R ² values lie between 98.5 and 99.5 % for both max and min temperature and 75 to 83 % for precipitation. These results indicate a good applicability of SDSM-A and SDSM-M for downscaling max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation under H3A2 and H3B2 scenarios for future periods of the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s in this basin. Both sub-models show a mean annual increase in max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation. Under H3A2, and according to both sub-models, changes in max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation are projected as 0.91–3.15 °C, 0.93–2.63 °C, and 6–12 %, and under H3B2, the values of change are 0.69–1.92 °C, 0.56–1.63 °C, and 8–14 % in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. These results show that the climate of the basin will be warmer and wetter relative to the baseline period. SDSM-A, most of the time, projects higher changes in climate than SDSM-M. It can also be concluded that although SDSM-A performed well in predicting mean annual values, it cannot be used with regard to monthly and seasonal variations, especially in the case of precipitation unless correction is applied.     

Daily and annual cycle of CO2 concentration near the surface depending on boundary layer structure at a rural site in Spain

CO₂ in the rural atmosphere is related to respiration–photosynthesis processes, although the evolution of the low atmosphere is also a determinant factor. CO₂ concentrations were measured at surface and meteorological variables obtained from a radio acoustic sounding system sodar at a flat rural site during a 3-year campaign. Yearly and daily cycles of CO₂ were described. Maxima were observed in spring and autumn during the night. Wind speed and thermal structure of the lower atmosphere were analysed. Low level jets were observed during the night, their core proving lower in summer. Surface inversions observed with low winds reached up to 100 m. The turbulence layer which developed during the day extended up to 300–400 m and was capped by a stable layer. Median vertical wind speed reached 1 m s^?1 in super-adiabatic conditions in summer. Determination of decoupled low level jets proved difficult with the device used and corresponding concentrations were slightly higher than medians calculated with all the observations. The bulk Richardson number was calculated in the lower atmosphere and four intervals were considered: drainage, transitional, shear flows and unstable conditions. Median CO₂ concentrations were split according to these intervals. Higher values corresponded to drainage flow, which was associated to more stable conditions being less frequent and lower values to shear flow and unstable conditions, revealing a satisfactory link between the bulk Richardson number as a turbulence indicator in the low atmosphere and CO₂ surface concentrations.