Vertical structure of orographic precipitating clouds observed over south Asia during summer monsoon season

Orography profoundly influences seasonal rainfall amount in several places in south Asia by affecting rain intensity and duration. One of the fundamental questions concerning orographic rainfall is nature of the associated precipitating clouds in the absence of synoptic forcing. It is believed that these clouds are not very deep, however, there is not much information in the literature on their vertical structure. The present study explores the vertical structure of precipitating clouds associated with orographic features in south Asia using data collected with the precipitation radar on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite. Two types of precipitating clouds have been defined based on cloud echo top height, namely, shallow echo-top cloud and medium echo-top cloud. In both, radar reflectivity factor is at least 30 dBZ at 1.5 km altitude, and tops of shallow and medium echo-top clouds lie below 4.5 km and between 4.5 and 8 km, respectively. The Western Ghats contains the highest fraction of the shallow echo-top clouds followed by the adjacent eastern Arabian Sea, while the Khasi Hills in Meghalaya and Cardamom Mountains in Cambodia contain the least fraction of them. Average vertical profiles of shallow echo-top clouds are similar in different mountainous areas while regional differences are observed in the medium echo-top clouds. Below 3 km, precipitation liquid water content in medium echo-top clouds is the highest over the Western Ghats and the eastern Arabian Sea. The average precipitation liquid water content increases by \(0.16\,\hbox { gm m}^{-3}\) for shallow echo-top clouds between 3 and 1.5 km altitude, while the corresponding increase for medium echo-top clouds is in 0.05–0.08 \(\hbox { gm m}^{-3}\) range.     

Impact of monsoon rainfall on the total foodgrain yield over India

The study focuses on understanding the variations of precipitation during summer monsoon season and its impact on Kharif and Rabi foodgrain yield over India. Total foodgrain yield over India during Kharif (summer) season is directly affected by variations in the summer monsoon precipitation (June–September). An increase (decrease) in rainfall is generally associated with an increase (decrease) in foodgrain yield. A similar correspondence during the Rabi (winter) foodgrain yield is not evident. The Rabi crop is not directly affected by variations in the post-monsoon precipitation (October–December) alone, also the summer season precipitation influences the Rabi crop through water and soil moisture availability over many parts of India. Though the reduction of rainfall activity during the entire summer monsoon season leads to reduction in crop yields, the occurrence of prolonged rainfall breaks also causes adverse effect on the crop growth resulting in reduced crop yields.     

Impact of climate change on the wheat-growing season over Iran

The objective of this paper is to derive and analyze the present and future climate projections over the region of wheat production over Iran. In addition, the projected future climate fluctuation results will be used to assist the maximum performance of wheat and to be used as the main basis for planning changes in the farming calendar in Iran. Observed climate (temperature and degree day) changes during the period (1951–2009) will be discussed. Projected future changes up to 2100 based on the MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3 compound model was utilized. Furthermore, 18 scenarios were used to derive a single GCM model referred to as the United Kingdom Hadley Center Global Environment Model, which will be used to select the worst, best, and average scenario.     

21 ka以来东亚夏季风区南部和北部气候变化的模拟与重建对比

古气候重建和模拟研究相结合可有效揭示气候变化的机制,但针对东亚夏季风区的相关研究还有待深入。文章基于现代观测数据及古气候记录的定量化重建结果,评估过去21 ka气候瞬变模拟（Transient Climate Evolution simulation over last 21000 years,简称TraCE-21ka）对现代东亚气候及古夏季风演变的再现能力,对比分析其异同并探索东亚夏季风区南部（SEASM）和北部（NEASM）特征时期的气候变化及可能的驱动机制。结果表明：TraCE-21ka模拟和定量化重建结果相对一致,即末次冰盛期偏干冷,全新世早中期偏暖湿,但模拟的变化幅度小于重建。相对于SEASM,NEASM变化幅度较显著。同时,SEASM的温度及降水和NEASM的温度在整个全新世期间模拟和重建的结果一致性较高,但NEASM模拟和重建的降水在晚全新世一致而早全新世不一致。相对于重建降水的南部和北部显著不同步变化,即南部降水在早全新世高而北部在中全新世高,模拟降水的南、北差异性较小,且为全新世持续减弱夏季风演变的结果。这种重建与模拟间的不同可能来源于地表过程对气候演变敏感度的区域性差异,也可能来源于粗分辨率模拟所造成的系统性气候偏移。

     

Impact of global warming on cyclonic disturbances over south Asian region

A state-of-the-art regional climate modelling system, known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK is applied over the Indian domain to investigate the impact of global warming on the cyclonic disturbances such as depressions and storms. The PRECIS simulations at 50 × 50 km horizontal resolution are made for two time slices, present (1961–1990) and the future (2071–2100), for two socioeconomic scenarios A2 and B2. The model simulations under the scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols are analysed to study the likely changes in the frequency, intensity and the tracks of cyclonic disturbances forming over north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) and the Indian landmass during monsoon season. The model overestimates the frequency of cyclonic disturbances over the Indian subcontinent in baseline simulations (1961–1990). The change is evaluated towards the end of present century (2071–2100) with respect to the baseline climate. The present study indicates that the storm tracks simulated by the model are southwards as compared to the observed tracks during the monsoon season, especially for the two main monsoon months, viz., July and August. The analysis suggests that the frequency of cyclonic disturbances forming over north Indian Ocean is likely to reduce by 9% towards the end of the present century in response to the global warming. However, the intensity of cyclonic disturbances is likely to increase by about 11% compared to the present.     

Cloud distribution over East Asia during the summer monsoon season interpreted through satellite pictures

Summer monsoon clouds over East Asia observed by the meteorological satellite Himawari and ESSA were analyzed in order to shed light on the dynamic climatology of the area during the Baiu season. The mean cloudiness over Monsoon Asia undergoes little change and is nearly 50%, but the monsoon cloud belt varies in time and space in accordance with the seasonal shift of the strongest westerly flow axis at the 500 mb level. The summer monsoon clouds form a belt in which a major amount of water vapor is transported, extending from South China to the Bering Sea. Monsoon rains occur in Japan when the belt of monsoon cloud is over Japan and ends when the cloud belt moves away.     

Modelling of late Quaternary climate over Asia: a synthesis

Through the late Quaternary, the global climate system ranged from full glacial to temperate interglacial conditions. On a smaller spatial scale, regional climates of the late Quaternary exhibited fluctuations that were at times asynchronous to these global changes. For example, glacier expansion in the Himalayas during the mid-Holocene appears to be at odds with the notion of increased global temperature. A clear understanding of the dynamical processes governing regional climate is therefore essential to the correct interpretation of proxy climate data. We summarize results from numerical simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the mid-Holocene, and focus on the multiple processes that control regional climate of the Himalaya and surrounding areas, with emphasis on monsoon dynamics and variability. It is shown that changes in the south Asian monsoon (caused by fluctuations in Earth's orbital parameters, by tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, or by exposure of the Sunda shelf) alter the hydrological balance in regions bordering the Tibetan Plateau, a balance for which there are extensive continental proxy records. Numerical results correlate with the expansion/contraction cycles of deserts near the Chinese Loess Plateau. In addition, the LGM monsoon exhibits significant snow accumulation in the eastern Himalaya, whereas the mid-Holocene monsoon exhibits increased accumulation in the northwestern Himalaya. Simulated changes are therefore in accord with field data and demonstrate that numerical simulations can be a useful tool in the interpretation of regional proxy data, particularly when those data are asynchronous to global records.     

Impact of vegetation on the simulation of seasonal monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent using a regional model

The change in the type of vegetation fraction can induce major changes in the local effects such as local evaporation, surface radiation, etc., that in turn induces changes in the model simulated outputs. The present study deals with the effects of vegetation in climate modeling over the Indian region using the MM5 mesoscale model. The main objective of the present study is to investigate the impact of vegetation dataset derived from SPOT satellite by ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) versus that of USGS (United States Geological Survey) vegetation dataset on the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon. The present study has been conducted for five monsoon seasons (1998–2002), giving emphasis over the two contrasting southwest monsoon seasons of 1998 (normal) and 2002 (deficient). The study reveals mixed results on the impact of vegetation datasets generated by ISRO and USGS on the simulations of the monsoon. Results indicate that the ISRO data has a positive impact on the simulations of the monsoon over northeastern India and along the western coast. The MM5-USGS has greater tendency of overestimation of rainfall. It has higher standard deviation indicating that it induces a dispersive effect on the rainfall simulation. Among the five years of study, it is seen that the RMSE of July and JJAS (June–July–August–September) for All India Rainfall is mostly lower for MM5-ISRO. Also, the bias of July and JJAS rainfall is mostly closer to unity for MM5-ISRO. The wind fields at 850 hPa and 200 hPa are also better simulated by MM5 using ISRO vegetation. The synoptic features like Somali jet and Tibetan anticyclone are simulated closer to the verification analysis by ISRO vegetation. The 2 m air temperature is also better simulated by ISRO vegetation over the northeastern India, showing greater spatial variability over the region. However, the JJAS total rainfall over north India and Deccan coast is better simulated using the USGS vegetation. Sensible heat flux over north-west India is also better simulated by MM5-USGS.     

模拟退火优化算法的冻土热传导参数反分析

土体热参数是寒区工程温度场预测和稳定性分析至关重要的参数。根据冻土温度场计算的特点,建立冻土一维相变热参数估计模型,采用非线性有限元法得到土体温度场,基于一种非常快速的模拟退火（VFSA）算法对热参数进行反分析。考虑各个参数的敏感度因子和土体分层情况,将热参数分组、分步进行反演,克服参数较多反演困难的缺陷。以青藏公路多年冻土区监测断面下土体反分析为例,反演分析冻土路基下部不同土层的导热系数、体积热容量和孔隙率等参数。最后,运用参数反演结果对温度场进行预测,经检验和与实测地温对比,表明参数反分析结果可靠,有较高的精度,该方法可用于实际工程。     

中亚地区过去2000年气候变化研究的数据挖掘

中亚地区是古丝绸之路的主要廊道,气候变率时空差异大,随着"一带一路"倡议的逐步推进,该地区过去2000年气候变化研究备受关注。文章参照世界数据中心古气候资料共享网收录文献的关键词,从Web of Science数据库检索该地区过去2000年气候变化研究文献;并结合中亚自然资源图集的政区、湖泊、山脉等地名信息,构建了面向该类文献的数据挖掘技术;据此提取了研究区（点）、时间、代用资料与研究结果等信息,分析了其间该地区冷暖与干湿变化研究的主要进展。主要结论有：1）中亚地区过去2000年气候变化的已有研究重点为局地温度、降水/干湿变化重建与冷暖、干湿、湖泊水位等的阶段性差异分析,其中尤以干湿相关研究居多;所用代用资料主要有树轮（占44.2%）、湖泊沉积物（占41.9%）、冰芯（占9.3%）等,其中湖泊沉积物、冰芯、石笋可覆盖整个2000年,而最长的树轮仅覆盖过去1100年,且多数集中在1700年之后;研究区集中分布于西天山及帕米尔高原、巴尔喀什湖、咸海及周边地区;研究时段虽覆盖整个2000年,但高分辨率重建工作主要集中于16世纪之后。2）中亚地区公元1~3世纪末、15世纪中期~19世纪中期气候相对寒冷,5世纪中期~9世纪末、12世纪中期~14世纪末和19世纪中期以后气候总体温暖,但在1230年前后和1680年前后也分别出现过显著转冷和回暖;20世纪后期的温暖程度可能与其前千年的最暖时段相当。西天山、帕米尔和咸海三地干湿的百年尺度阶段变化并不同步;其中在百年以上尺度,咸海及周边地区公元1~5世纪、10~12世纪中期相对偏干,5世纪~9世纪、12世纪后期~15世纪中期相对偏湿,此后缓慢转干持续至今;而在年代际尺度上,西天山和帕米尔山地降水自1980年起曾显著增加,但至2000年以后又显著转干。     

过去2000年3个典型暖期北半球季风降水的模拟研究

理解北半球季风降水在暖期的变化特点及其对外强迫的响应对现代社会经济发展至关重要。文章基于通用地球系统模式（CESM）过去2000年气候模拟试验结果和气候同化资料（LMR）,探究罗马暖期、中世纪气候异常期和现代暖期北半球季风降水的特征及其成因机制。结果表明：在这3个典型暖期中,北半球季风降水都呈现增加的趋势,其降水异常场的空间分布是相似的,但是3个暖期的季风降水强度截然不同,罗马暖期和中世纪气候异常期降水强度相似,而现代暖期季风降水强度明显强于前两个暖期,其降水异常值约为前两个暖期的1.2倍。3个暖期的降水增多均由热力作用主导,其中罗马暖期和中世纪气候异常期主要受到太阳辐射增强而引起的热力作用增强的影响,火山活动微弱导致的动力作用增强也有一定的贡献;而在现代暖期,太阳辐射和火山活动对于热力、动力的贡献与前两个暖期相似,但是温室气体增多引起热力、动力作用显著增强,从而导致现代暖期总的热力、动力作用都明显高于前两个暖期。

     

Impact of moisture variations on the circulation of the south-west monsoon

The impact of moisture anomalies on the circulation of the south-west Indian monsoon has been studied with a general circulation model. Newtonian relaxation is adopted to subject the model atmosphere under sustained moisture anomalies. The impact of negative anomalies of moisture was seen as a divergent circulation anomaly, while the positive anomaly was a stronger convergent anomaly. Although the humidity fields display a resilient behaviour, and relax back to normal patterns 1–2 days after the forcing terms in humidity are withdrawn, the circulation anomalies created by the moisture variation keeps growing. A feedback between positive moisture anomalies and low level convergence exists, which is terminated in the absence of external forcings.     

亚洲季风区降水中稳定同位素气候意义研究进展

文章回顾了过去30多年围绕亚洲季风区,特别是青藏高原降水与冰芯同位素现代过程研究,对季风区稳定同位素气候意义的认识过程。降水及不同介质氧稳定同位素研究从最早聚焦于降水同位素与当地气候因子之间的关系,即"温度效应"与"降水量效应",发展到大尺度大气环流过程对降水同位素时空变化的影响,进而否定了局地气候因子的控制作用。近些年重要的研究进展之一是明确了与赤道海洋温度变化相关的ENSO对整个亚洲季风区同位素年际年代际波动的影响过程与机制,发现了大尺度大气环流在不同时间尺度稳定同位素记录中的显著信号。这些认识对于亚洲季风区冰芯、石笋、树轮同位素气候意义的解释都具有重要意义。但在不同时间尺度上,影响降水同位素的主导控制因素不同,导致对于解释长时间尺度同位素记录仍存在挑战,有待于从机制和结合同位素分馏的大气环流模型模拟研究中取得新的突破。     

Impact of additional surface observation network on short range weather forecast during summer monsoon 2008 over Indian subcontinent

The three dimensional variational data assimilation scheme (3D-Var) is employed in the recently developed Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Assimilation experiments have been conducted to assess the impact of Indian Space Research Organisation’s (ISRO) Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) surface observations (temperature and moisture) on the short range forecast over the Indian region. In this study, two experiments, CNT (without AWS observations) and EXP (with AWS observations) were made for 24-h forecast starting daily at 0000 UTC during July 2008. The impact of assimilation of AWS surface observations were assessed in comparison to the CNT experiment. The spatial distribution of the improvement parameter for temperature, relative humidity and wind speed from one month assimilation experiments demonstrated that for 24-h forecast, AWS observations provide valuable information. Assimilation of AWS observed temperature and relative humidity improved the analysis as well as 24-h forecast. The rainfall prediction has been improved due to the assimilation of AWS data, with the largest improvement seen over the Western Ghat and eastern India.     

末次冰期亚洲季风千年尺度事件的频谱特征分析

基于神农架永兴洞3支石笋氧同位素记录,拼接重建了末次冰期88~22 ka B.P.平均分辨率达70 a的东亚季风演变序列。本文以小波诊断技术为基础,对去除65°N夏季太阳辐射和72 ka异常事件影响的石笋δ¹⁸O进行了多时间尺度分析。小波频谱分析结果表明,末次冰期亚洲季风具有明显的近8 ka、4 ka、2 ka左右的周期。其中近8 ka周期是唯一一个贯穿整个末次冰期的显著周期。小波方差分析结果也显示该时段仅有1个突出的峰值,对应时间约为7.7 ka。进一步分析发现这个周期组分其实也出现在格陵兰冰芯δ¹⁸O和南极温度变化中,可能被年龄误差和异常事件所掩盖。已有的千年尺度机制难以有力地解释该周期组分,我们利用外差法对轨道参数的周期进行分解,获得16 ka周期,这个周期的一半刚好与发现的8 ka周期相匹配。因此,地球轨道参数单独或共同作用,引起海表温、大冰盖、海洋/大陆生态系统的变化,通过大气、大洋等环流作用,从而产生地球气候系统轨道和千年尺度的振荡。

     

气候变化对澜湄流域气象水文干旱时空特性的影响

受全球气候变化影响,澜沧江-湄公河流域气象水文干旱发生了较大变化,预测未来流域干旱的时空变化与传播特征是应对气候变化、开展澜湄水资源合作的基础。利用SWAT模型通过气陆耦合方式模拟了澜沧江-湄公河流域历史（1960—2005年）和未来时期（2022—2050年,2051—2080年）的水文过程,采用标准化降水指数和标准化径流指数预估并分析了流域未来气象水文干旱时空变化趋势。结果表明:①澜沧江-湄公河流域未来降水呈增长趋势,气象干旱将有所缓解,但降水年内分配不均与流域蒸发的增加,将导致水文干旱更为严峻,干旱从气象到水文的传播过程加剧;②水文干旱具有明显的空间异质性,允景洪和清盛站的水文干旱最为严重,琅勃拉邦、穆达汉和巴色站次之,万象站最弱;③未来流域水文干旱事件发生频次略有减少,但其中重旱、特旱事件占比增加,极端干旱将趋多趋强,且空间变化更加显著。     

Holocene vegetation and climate of south Tripura based on palynological analysis

Palynological analysis of sub surface samples at 1.20 m deep sediment profile from Srinagar, southwest Tripura, provides information on vegetation and climate during 7000–3000 years B.P. During this time span, the area is occupied by moist deciduous forest under warm humid climate with intermittent changes in precipitation regime i.e., comparatively less humid around 6.8 Kyr B.P. and 3.7–3.8 Kyr B.P.     

Late Pleistocene climate and water budget of the south American Altiplano

Geomorphic evidence from the Peruvian-Bolivian Altiplano indicates that during episodes prior to 28,000 and around 12,500-11,000 yr B.P., lakes covered an area about six and four times as large as at present, respectively. Within the constraints of the heat and water budget, model calculations are used to estimate the precipitation rate that would allow hydrologic equilibrium. On this basis it is suggested that rainfall on the Altiplano during the episodes of enlarged lakes was, respectively, some 300 and 200 mm annum⁻¹ larger than at present, representing increases of about 75 and 50%, respectively. Field evidence suggests that the episodes of enlarged lakes on the Altiplano may have preceded or coincided with periods of maximum glaciation in the neigh-boring Andes. In this region with high elevation of the ice equilibrium line, increased precipitation is particularly conducive to glaciation.     

A synoptic-climatic study of the onset of southwest monsoon over Mumbai

Surface and upper air synoptic features prevailing at the time of onset of southwest monsoon over Mumbai have been examined for a period of 50 years from 1947 to 1996. These synoptic situations have been found to fall under three broad categories. The study shows that on about 66% of the occasions, the onset of monsoon over Mumbai is caused by low pressure area forming over southeast and east central Arabian Sea as they move northwards, while on 28% of the occasions, the onset is due to the low pressure systems forming over northwest/head Bay of Bengal and their movement towards northwest/west northwest. Based on the findings of the study and the climatological aspects, a criterion for declaring onset over Mumbai has been suggested.