Modelling landslides in unsaturated slopes subjected to rainfall infiltration using material point method

This paper presents a dynamic fully coupled formulation for saturated and unsaturated soils that undergo large deformations based on material point method. Governing equations are applied to porous material while considering it as a continuum in which the pores of the solid skeleton are filled with water and air. The accuracy of the developed method is tested with available experimental and numerical results. The developed method has been applied to investigate the failure and post‐failure behaviour of rapid landslides in unsaturated slopes subjected to rainfall infiltration using two different bedrock geometries that lie below the top soil. The models show different failure and post‐failure mechanisms depending on the bedrock geometry and highlight the negative effects of continuous rain infiltrations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

降雨入渗条件下非饱和土边坡稳定分析

针对降雨入渗土坡的稳定问题,建立一个考虑水力渗透系数特征曲线、土-水特征曲线以及修正的Mohr-Coulomb破坏准则的非饱和土流固耦合有限元计算模型,进行雨水入渗下非饱和土边坡渗流场和应力场耦合的数值模拟,得到非饱和土边坡变形与应力的若干重要规律。研究成果为降雨入渗条件下非饱和土边坡的稳定分析提供了基础。     

不同降雨模式下山谷型垃圾填埋场水分运移及其稳定性研究

近10年的运营经验表明,国内南方地区第1批建造的山谷型垃圾填埋场中的渗滤液水位一般较高。同时,现有研究表明,降雨入渗引起渗滤液水位过高是垃圾填埋场失稳的主要诱因之一。因此,研究强降雨条件下山谷型垃圾填埋场的水分运移规律及其稳定性,具有重要的现实意义。基于七子山填埋场浅层、中层和深层垃圾土的土-水特征曲线和Brooks-Corey公式,利用非线性拟合技术得到垃圾土的渗透性函数;运用饱和-非饱和渗流理论,对递减型、中心型、增强型和平均型4种降雨模式下七子山填埋场的水分运移进行了数值计算;利用极限平衡理论,对不同降雨模式下七子山填埋场的稳定性进行了分析。结果表明,降雨模式对山谷型垃圾填埋场内的水分运移规律和填埋场的稳定性有显著的影响,递减型降雨模式下填埋场内孔隙水压的变化最大,同时填埋场稳定系数也下降最为明显,为最不利降雨模式;经历7 d 746 mm的极端强降雨后,七子山填埋场具有极大的失稳隐患。     

Early warning system for shallow landslides using rainfall threshold and slope stability analysis

A combined cluster and regression analysis were performed for the first time to identify rainfall threshold that triggers landslide events in Amboori, Kerala, India. Amboori is a tropical area that is highly vulnerable to landslides. The 2, 3, and 5-day antecedent rainfall data versus daily rainfall was clustered to identify a cluster of critical events that could potentially trigger landslides. Further, the cluster of critical events was utilized for regression analysis to develop the threshold equations. The 5-day antecedent (x-variable) vs. daily rainfall (y-variable) provided the best fit to the data with a threshold equation of y = 80.7–0.1981x. The intercept of the equation indicates that if the 5-day antecedent rainfall is zero, the minimum daily rainfall needed to trigger the landslide in the Amboori region would be 80.7 mm. The negative coefficient of the antecedent rainfall indicates that when the cumulative antecedent rainfall increases, the amount of daily rainfall required to trigger monsoon landslide decreases. The coefficient value indicates that the contribution of the 5-day antecedent rainfall is ∼20% to the landslide trigger threshold. The slope stability analysis carried out for the area, using Probabilistic Infinite Slope Analysis Model (PISA-m), was utilized to identify the areas vulnerable to landslide in the region. The locations in the area where past landslides have occurred demonstrate lower Factors of Safety (FS) in the slope stability analysis. Thus, rainfall threshold analysis together with the FS values from slope stability can be suitable for developing a simple, cost-effective, and comprehensive early-warning system for shallow landslides in Amboori and similar regions.     

非饱和粉质黏土坡面降雨非正交入渗试验研究

传统降雨入渗分析是以降雨强度在坡面上的正交分量作为边界条件,不符合实际降雨的非正交入渗规律。为了研究非饱和粉质黏土的非正交入渗规律性,首先通过对正交入渗理论的综述,揭示并分析目前降雨入渗理论在坡面流模型和边界条件方面的缺陷。采用自行研制的室内降雨试验装置对非饱和粉质黏土进行不同降雨强度、坡角和孔隙比的降雨入渗试验,结果表明,非饱和粉质黏土坡面降雨入渗是并非简单正交分解入渗而是非正交入渗;对于坡角和孔隙比为定值的土坡,具有最大坡面入渗的最优雨强;土的孔隙比越小,降雨初期入渗率随时间变化越快,入渗率趋于稳定状态越快;入渗率和累积入渗量并不是随坡角的增大呈单调变化,而存在对应入渗水量最少的最优坡角。     

开挖与降雨作用下边坡失稳机理及模拟分析

边坡开挖和降雨通常是导致边坡失稳的重要原因。本文以湖南湘西山区某国道扩建开挖边坡为研究对象,基于现场边坡监测结果和数值模拟分析,研究了在边坡开挖和降雨条件下坡体变形位移的过程。结果表明:边坡的破坏是一个渐变的过程,不同的影响因素对边坡的影响不同。开挖切方是浅层坡体失稳的诱发因素,开挖切方破坏了坡体的应力平衡,使坡体的应力重新分布,并在坡体中产生浅层的滑动面。雨水的入渗是坡体深层滑动面的诱发因素,雨水沿着裂缝渗入坡体,使浅部滑动面上下土体的变形差进一步加大,进而产生浅层牵引式滑动破坏。同时雨水的入渗使碎石土和强风化页岩交界附近产生高孔隙水压力,在水-岩土共同作用逐渐形成软化的滑带土,从而形成深层滑动面。     

Evaluation of landslide triggering mechanisms in model fill slopes

Hong Kong is particularly susceptible to landslide risk due to the steep natural topography and prolonged periods of high intensity rainfall. Compounding the risk of slope failure is the existence of loose fill slopes which were constructed prior to the 1970s by end-tipping. A clear understanding of the underlying triggering mechanisms of fast landslides in fill slopes is required to analyse landslide risk and to optimise slope stabilisation strategies. The work described here had the objective of evaluating two candidate triggering mechanisms—static liquefaction and the transition from slide to flow due to localised transient pore water pressures—against observations of slope behaviour obtained from highly instrumented centrifuge model tests. These results indicate that static liquefaction is unlikely to occur if the model fill is unsaturated and the depth to bedrock large, as the high compressibility and mobility of air in the unsaturated void spaces allows the model fill slope to accommodate wetting collapse without initiating undrained failure. In contrast, high-speed failures with low-angle run-outs are shown to be easily triggered in model fill slopes from initially slow moving slips driven by localised transient pore water pressures arising from constricted seepage and material layering.     

Modelling the effect of rainfall on instabilities of slopes along highways

 During and after the very wet 1991/1992 winter experienced in Jordan, significant instabilities occurred in several sections of the new Irbid–Amman Highway in Jordan. A potential impact of surface and subsurface flow on the failed areas was noted. This paper is concerned with a hydrological study of the Irbid–Amman Highway, including watershed characteristics, hydrological data analysis, and hydraulic analysis of remedial works to failed areas and other parts of the highway drainage to minimize the impact of surface runoff and the effects of subsurface water with respect to the stability of the upslope and to limit the porewater pressure within the road formation. The study shows that the culvert capacity and the discharge velocity of the cross-highway drainage are deficient. Recommendations (e.g. gabion cascades) are therefore suggested to reduce drainage to the cross highway drainage structures. Grouting is suggested to stabilize the embankments above the inlets to culverts. Remedial drainage works are suggested for each major failed area. These include: culverts, table drain, drainage blanket beneath road formation, cut-off drains above cuttings, subsurface drains into the cut in the vicinity of springs, curtain drain beneath the lined table drain, and others. Received: 26 March 1997 · Accepted: 23 March 1998     

Efficient system reliability analysis of soil slopes using multivariate adaptive regression splines-based Monte Carlo simulation

System effects should be considered in the probabilistic analysis of a layered soil slope due to the potential existence of multiple failure modes. This paper presents a system reliability analysis approach for layered soil slopes based on multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The proposed approach is achieved in a two-phase process. First, MARS is constructed based on a group of training samples that are generated by Latin hypercube sampling (LHS). MARS is validated by a specific number of testing samples which are randomly generated per the underlying distributions. Second, the established MARS is integrated with MCS to estimate the system failure probability of slopes. Two types of multi-layered soil slopes (cohesive slope and c–φ slope) are examined to assess the capability and validity of the proposed approach. Each type of slope includes two examples with different statistics and system failure probability levels. The proposed approach can provide an accurate estimation of the system failure probability of a soil slope. In addition, the proposed approach is more accurate than the quadratic response surface method (QRSM) and the second-order stochastic response surface method (SRSM) for slopes with highly nonlinear limit state functions (LSFs). The results show that the proposed MARS-based MCS is a favorable and useful tool for the system reliability analysis of soil slopes.     

Uncertainty of rainfall-induced landslides considering spatial variability of parameters

A cross-correlation analysis is conducted to determine the impacts of the heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity K_s, soil cohesion c′ and soil friction angle (tan φ′) on the uncertainty of slope stability in time and space during rainfall. We find the relative importance of tan φ′ and c′ depends on the effective stress. While the sensitivity of the stability to the variability of K_s is small, the large coefficient of variation of K_s may exacerbate the variability of pore-water pressure. Therefore, characterizing the heterogeneity of hydraulic properties and pore-water distribution in the field is critical to the stability analysis.     

Influence of rainfall-induced wetting on the stability of slopes in weathered soils

Shallow failures of slopes in weathered soil are caused by infiltration due to prolonged rainfall. These failures are mainly triggered by the deepening of the wetting band accompanied by a decrease in matric suction induced by the water infiltration. This paper reports trends of rainfall-induced wetting band depth in two types of weathered soils that are commonly found in Korea. Both theoretical and numerical analyses for wetting band depth are presented based on the soil–water characteristic curve obtained using filter paper as well as tensiometer tests. It is found that the magnitude of wetting front suction plays a key role in the stability of slopes in weathered soils. Theoretical analysis based on modified Green and Ampt model tends to underestimate the wetting band depth for typical Korean weathered soils. It was also deduced that for Korean weathered soils, the factor of safety drops rapidly once the wetting band depth of 1.2 m reached.     

Regionalization of rainfall thresholds: an aid to landslide hazard evaluation

 Rainfall, soil properties, and morphology are major factors controlling shallow landsliding. A series of meteorological events that triggered soil slips in northern Italy were studied to define rainfall thresholds and to evaluate a possible regionalization. Soil properties, triggering rainfall, and local lithological and morphometrical settings of different sites were used as input to an infiltration model. The approach allows the recognition of several triggering conditions in the Piedmont, Pre-Alpine and Alpine regions. This suggests the need for different rainfall thresholds with respect to those derived with other methods. Intensity versus rainfall duration relationships become particularly important when related to soil permeability and thickness, and demonstrate the role of antecedent precipitation. Events with exceptional water discharge from obstructed road culverts reveal the role played by anthropic structures in triggering such phenomena. Different approaches to slope stability analysis are shown, taking into account bedrock lithology, topography, seepage, and local saturation conditions. Received: 23 October 1997 · Accepted: 25 June 1997     

Reliability bearing capacity analysis of footings on cohesive soil slopes using RFEM

Reliability analysis of bearing capacity of a strip footing at the crest of a simple slope with cohesive soil was carried out using the random finite element method (RFEM). Analyses showed that the coefficient of variation and the spatial correlation length of soil cohesion can have a large influence on footing bearing capacity, particularly for slopes with large height to footing width ratios. The paper demonstrates cases where a footing satisfies a deterministic design factor of safety of 3 but the probability of design failure is unacceptably high. Isotropic and anisotropic spatial variability of the soil strength was also considered.     

3D stability of unsaturated soil slopes with tension cracks under steady infiltrations

Most classical approaches for evaluating the stability of soil slopes with cracks are performed under two-dimensional (2D) condition. Three-dimensional (3D) effect and suction-induced effect of unsaturated soils are generally neglected in assessing the slope stability. This paper develops a 3D limit analysis method to evaluate the stability of an unsaturated soil slope with tension cracks under steady infiltrations. The boundary-value problem is formulated based on the 3D rotational failure mechanism by taking the effects of suction, effective unit weight, and tension crack into account. A simplified method is proposed to calculate the work rate of unsaturated soil weight. A layer-wise summation method is developed based on the divergence theorem to calculate the internal energy dissipation rate. Detailed discussions are conducted to investigate the effects of suction and Poisson's ratio on the stability of unsaturated soil slopes. Examples are given to illustrate the 3D effect, the suction-induced effect as well as the effects of infiltration and water in cracks on the slope stability.     

Advanced reliability analysis of slopes in spatially variable soils using multivariate adaptive regression splines

This study aims to extend the multivariate adaptive regression splines(MARS)-Monte Carlo simulation(MCS) method for reliability analysis of slopes in spatially variable soils. This approach is used to explore the influences of the multiscale spatial variability of soil properties on the probability of failure(P_f) of the slopes. In the proposed approach, the relationship between the factor of safety and the soil strength parameters characterized with spatial variability is approximated by the MARS, with the aid of Karhunen-Loeve expansion. MCS is subsequently performed on the established MARS model to evaluate Pf.Finally, a nominally homogeneous cohesive-frictional slope and a heterogeneous cohesive slope, which are both characterized with different spatial variabilities, are utilized to illustrate the proposed approach.Results showed that the proposed approach can estimate the P_f of the slopes efficiently in spatially variable soils with sufficient accuracy. Moreover, the approach is relatively robust to the influence of different statistics of soil properties, thereby making it an effective and practical tool for addressing slope reliability problems concerning time-consuming deterministic stability models with low levels of P_f.Furthermore, disregarding the multiscale spatial variability of soil properties can overestimate or underestimate the P_f. Although the difference is small in general, the multiscale spatial variability of the soil properties must still be considered in the reliability analysis of heterogeneous slopes, especially for those highly related to cost effective and accurate designs.     

An analytical solution for rainfall infiltration into an unsaturated infinite slope and its application to slope stability analysis

Surficial slope failures in residual soils are common in tropical and subtropical regions as a result of rainfall infiltration. This study develops an analytical solution for simulating rainfall infiltration into an infinite unsaturated soil slope. The analytical solution is based on the general partial differential equation for water flow through unsaturated soils. It can accept soil–water characteristic curve and unsaturated permeability function of the exponential form into account. Numerical simulations are conducted to verify the assumptions of the analytical solution and demonstrate that the proposed analytical solution is acceptable for the coarse soils with low air entry values. The pore‐water pressure (pwp) distributions obtained from the analytical solution can be incorporated into a limit equilibrium method to do infinite slope stability analysis for a rain‐induced shallow slip. The analysis method takes into account the influence of the water content change on unit weight and hence on factor of safety. A series of analytical parametric analyses have been performed using the developed model. The analyses indicate that when the residual soil slope, consisting of a completely decomposed granite layer underlain by a less permeable layer, is subjected to a continuous heavy rainfall, the loss of negative pwp and the reduction in factor of safety were found to be most significant for the shallow soil layer and during the first 12 h. The antecedent and subsequent rainfall intensity, depth of a less permeable layer and slope angle all have a significant influence on the pwp response and hence the slope stability. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

降雨入渗时无限边坡的水平位移与稳定性分析

采用Mohr-Coulomb强度理论,对下有不透水层的无限边坡进行了弹塑性分析,探讨了降雨过程中坡面水平位移的变化规律,分析了边坡安全系数和滑坡前坡面水平位移的关系。数值分析表明,土坡的抗剪强度参数、初始应力状态和降雨强度对边坡的安全系数和水平位移都有很大影响,但初始应力状态对滑坡发生的时间没有影响,对于具有较小抗剪强度参数的边坡,如果降雨强度较大,则滑坡时的水平位移较小。     

Stochastic response surface method for reliability analysis of rock slopes involving correlated non-normal variables

This paper proposes a stochastic response surface method for reliability analysis involving correlated non-normal random variables, in which the Nataf transformation is adopted to effectively transform the correlated non-normal variables into independent standard normal variables. Transformations of random variables that are often used in reliability analyses in terms of standard normal variables are summarized. The closed-form expressions for fourth to sixth order Hermite polynomial chaos expansions involving any number of random variables are formulated. The proposed method will substantially extend the application of stochastic response surface method for reliability problems. An example of reliability analysis of rock slope stability with plane failure is presented to demonstrate the validity and capability of the proposed stochastic response surface method. The results indicate that the proposed stochastic response surface method can evaluate the reliability of rock slope stability involving correlated non-normal variables accurately and efficiently. Its accuracy is shown to be higher than that for the first-order reliability method, and it is much more efficient than direct Monte-Carlo simulation. The results also show that the number of collocation points selected should ensure that the Hermite polynomial matrix has a full rank so that different order SRSMs can produce a robust estimation of probability of failure for a specified performance function. Generally, the accuracy of SRSM increases as the order of SRSM increases.     

Full probabilistic design of slopes in spatially variable soils using simplified reliability analysis method

ABSTRACT

A simplified reliability analysis method is proposed for efficient full probabilistic design of soil slopes in spatially variable soils. The soil slope is viewed as a series system comprised of numerous potential slip surfaces and the spatial variability of soil properties is modelled by the spatial averaging technique along potential slip surfaces. The proposed approach not only provides sufficiently accurate reliability estimates of slope stability, but also significantly improves the computational efficiency of soil slope design in comparison with simulation-based full probabilistic design. It is found that the spatial variability has considerable effects on the optimal slope design.     

Strength reduction FEM in stability analysis of soil slopes subjected to transient unsaturated seepage

The instability of soil slopes induced by the fluctuation of water level or rainfall has received much attention in the literature recently and the failure mechanism is closely related to the change of matric suction of unsaturated soils. Such a change is basically induced by unsaturated transient seepage. The traditional approach for estimating the stability of slopes subjected to unsaturated transient seepage is based on the limit equilibrium method (LEM). The limit equilibrium approach is limited by assumptions about analysis method and failure mechanism. In order to overcome those limitations, a finite element method with shear strength reduction technique (SSRFEM) has been successfully applied to the slope stability analysis in absence of seepage. The main objective of this paper is to extend the use of the strength reduction FEM to include the effects of unsaturated transient seepage and some primary numerical results concerning the stability of an earth dam under rapid drawdown are presented. Emphasis has been given to comparison of the safety factors obtained by LEM and SSRFEM. Topics for the further research in this area are also suggested.