Evolution of the Green Corona in 1996–2002

We analysed the green-line coronal intensities (530.3 nm, Fexiv), both their time- latitudinal distribution as well as the coronal index of solar activity (CI) over the period 1996–2002. Maximum values of the CI (smoothed) were observed in mid-August 2001, even though the `first' peak was observed in the period January–April 2000. The maximum of the Wolf number occurred in 2000, April – July, and the `second peak' occurred in December 2001–March 2002. Both indices have a similar course in the cycle, but their maxima are shifted by 1.5 year. There was high correlation between CI and Wolf number, the 2800 MHz radio flux, the X-ray 0.1–0.8 nm flux and cosmic-ray flux. The CI values in present cycle 23 are lower than those of the two former solar cycles 21 and 22 by about 1/3. Polar branches, which separated from the principal equatorward branch at mid-latitudes in the cycle minimum, 1996, reached the poles around 2000. The new principal branch for cycle 24 split in 2001, turned over around ±60° in 2002.5 and moves to the equator, where it will end in 2019. Minimum between cycles 23 and 24 will occur around 2007.5, cycle maximum 24 around 2012.5. Poleward branches in cycle 24 will reach the solar poles in 2011.     

Time–Latitudinal Development of the White-Light Coronal Structures over a Solar Cycle

Large-scale coronal structures (helmet streamers) observed in the white-light corona during total solar eclipses and/or with ground-based coronagraphs are mostly located only above quiescent types of prominences. These helmet streamers are maintained due to the magnetic fields of the Sun. Time–latitudinal distribution of prominences during a solar cycle, however, shows both the poleward and equatorward migrations, similar to the 530.3 nm emission corona (the green corona) intensities. Distribution of observed coronal helmet streamers during total solar eclipses, enlarged with the helmet streamers as were obtained by the ground-based coronagraph observations, are compared with the heliographic distribution of prominences and the green corona intensities for the first time. It is shown that the distribution of above-mentioned helmet streamers, reflects – roughly – the time–latitudinal distribution of prominences and emission corona branches, and migrates together with them over a solar cycle.     

Prominences and the Green Corona Over the Solar Activity Cycle

Prominences, in contrast to other solar activity features, may appear at all heliographic latitudes. The position of zones where prominences are mainly concentrated depends on the cycle phase of solar activity. It is shown, for prominence observations made at Lomnický tít over the period 1967–1996, how the position of prominence zones changes over a solar cycle, and how these zones could be connected with other solar activity features. Our results obtained could be an additional source to do a better prediction of solar activity. Time-latitudinal distribution is also shown for the green corona (Fexiv, 530.3 nm). Distribution of the green coronal maxima shows that there are equator-migrating zones in the solar corona that migrate from latitudes of 45° (starting approximately 2–3 years after the cycle start) to higher latitudes 70°, and then turn (around the cycle maximum) towards the equator, reaching the equator in the next minimum (this duration lasts 18–19 years). Polar branches separate from these zones at the cycle minimum (2–3 years before above-mentioned zones) at latitudes of 50°, reaching the poles at the maximum of the present cycle. The picture becomes dim when more polar prominence zones are observed. Prominences show both the poleward and equatorward migration. Comparison between both solar activity features is also discussed.     

The Green Corona and Magnetic Fields

We present results of a study of the green corona (530.3 nm, Fexiv) and photospheric magnetic fields over the period 1976–1999 when both quantities were observed by ground-based observatories. By comparing both the limb green-line intensities and photospheric magnetograms we have found a relation between the strength of magnetic field and coronal intensities. This relation enables us to extend solar surface magnetic fields since 1976 back to 1939. From 1947 to 1992 the magnetic field strength grew at the cycle maxima by a factor of 1.5–2. On the other hand, both the green corona intensity and magnetic field strength in the present cycle are smaller compared to cycle 22, by a factor of 2. No relationship was found between the green corona intensities and magnetic field polarity as was previously supposed. Behavior for the green corona intensities is different between high-latitude and mid-latitude regions, and this break occurs at the heliographic latitude of ± 45°. Homogeneous coronal data set cannot be directly used to derive `the tilt angle', even though some similarities between the green coronal holes, poleward branches in the green corona and prominences and the tilt angle can be found.     

Periodic variation of the north-south asymmetry of solar activity phenomena

We report here a study of various solar activity phenomena occurring in both north and south hemispheres of the Sun during solar cycles 8–23. In the study we have used sunspot data for the period 1832–1976, flare index data for the period 1936-1993, Hα flare data 1993–1998 and solar active prominences data for the period 1957–1998. Earlier Verma reported long-term cyclic period in N-S asymmetry and also that the N-S asymmetry of solar activity phenomena during solar cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 will be south dominated and the N-S asymmetry will shift to north hemisphere in solar cycle 25. The present study shows that the N-S asymmetry during solar cycles 22 and 23 are southern dominated as suggested by Verma.     

Large-scale distribution of magnetic fields,green corona and prominences during an extended activity cycle

The interrelations of the latitudinal distribution of the coronal green emission maxima, maximal numbers and areas of prominences, magnetic fields, sunspots, and polar faculae in the 20th and 21st sunspot cycles have been investigated. It is again demonstrated how the behaviour of all studied data depends on their heliographic latitude. In the polar zone, well separated from the equatorial we observe following polarity magnetic fields transported only polewards, while the equatorial zone is occupied mostly by leading polarity fields, developed there, moving equatorwards, and crossing the equator to the other hemisphere with the new cycle during the minimum of sunspot activity.This magnetic field distribution is well emphasized by the places of maximal occurrence of prominences and by the distribution of coronal green emission maxima which also differ in dependence on latitude.The question of identifying the first and last evolutionary stages of an extended cycle of activity is discussed and the existence of a magnetic activity cycle lasting 15–17 years is suggested.     

Time-Latitudinal Dynamics of Magnetic Fields and the Green Corona Over Three Solar Cycles

Time-latitudinal distributions of the solar-surface magnetic fields and the green corona (530.3 nm, Fe XIV) intensities in the period 1975 – 2004 are analyzed. Meridional migration maps show that time-varying components consist of both the poleward and equatorward belts over a solar cycle. The green-corona maps are, for the first time, directly compared with magnetic flux charts, yielding a good association between the green corona and magnetic fields; this is most reliably seen at high latitudes.     

Area of polar coronal holes and sunspot activity: Years 1939–1993

The correlation between the size of polar coronal holes and sunspot numbers has been investigated for the last five solar cycles. The area of polar coronal holes over the period from 1939 to 1993 was derived from ground-based observations of the green coronal line at 530.3 nm (Fe xiv). Correlation analysis revealed that there is no general shift in the maxima of the curves of these two solar indices. The analysis showed the same shift in months in cycles 21 and 22 when the best correlation between the indices is reached; the time shift found in cycle 20 is slightly different from that in cycle 18; in cycle 19, there is found a shift with a value between the values in cycles 18, 20 and 21, 22. The time between succesive peaks of smoothed polar hole size and smoothed sunspot number is different in each cycle.     

The Temperature of the Low Corona During Solar Cycles 21–23

Observations of the forbidden coronal lines Fe xiv 530.3 nm and Fe x 637.4 nm obtained at the National Solar Observatory at Sacramento Peak are used to determine the variation of coronal temperature at latitudes above 30^∘ during solar activity cycles 21–23. Features of the long-term variation of emission in the two lines are also discussed. Temperatures at latitudes below 30^∘ are not studied because the technique used to determine the coronal temperature is not applicable in active regions. The polar temperature varies cyclically from approximately 1.3 to 1.7 MK. The temperatures are similar in both hemispheres. The temperature near solar minimum decreases strongly from mid-latitudes to the poles. The temperature of the corona above 80^∘ latitude generally follows the sunspot cycle, with minima in 1985 and 1995–1996 (cf. 1986 and 1996 for the smoothed sunspot number, Rz) and maxima in 1989 and 2000 (cf. 1989 and 2000 for Rz). The temperature of the corona above 30^∘ latitude at solar maximum is nearly uniform, i.e., there is little latitude dependence. If the maximum temperatures of cycles 22 and 23 are aligned in time (superposed epochs), the average annual N + S temperature (average of the northern and southern hemisphere) in cycle 23 is hotter than that in cycle 22 at all times both above 80^∘ latitude and above 30^∘ latitude. The difference in the average annual N + S maximum temperature between cycles 23 and 22 was 56 kK near the poles and 64 kK for all latitudes above 30^∘. Cycle 23 was also hotter at mid-latitudes than cycle 22 by 60 kK. The last 3 years of cycle 21 were hotter than the last 3 years of cycle 22. The difference in average annual N + S temperatures at the end of cycles 21 and 22 was 32 kK near the poles and 23 kK for all latitudes above 30^∘. Cycle 21 was also hotter at mid-latitudes than cycle 22 by at least 90 kK. Thus, there does not seem to be a solar-cycle trend in the low-coronal temperature outside of active regions.     

Brightness of the Coronal Green Line and Prediction for Activity Cycles 23 and 24

Cyclic variations of the mean semi-annual intensities I of the coronal green line 530.3 nm are compared with the mean semi-annual variations of the Wolf numbers W during the period of 1943–1999 (activity cycles 18–23). The values of I in the equatorial zone proved to correlate much better with the Wolf numbers in a following cycle than in a given one (the correlation coefficient r is 0.86 and 0.755, respectively). Such increase of the correlation coefficient with a shift by one cycle differs in different phases of the cycle, being the largest at the ascending branch. The regularities revealed make it possible to predict the behaviour of W in the following cycle on the basis of intensities of the coronal green line in the preceding cycle. We predict the maximum semi-annual W in cycle 23 to be 110–122 and the epoch of minimum between cycles 23 and 24 to take place at 2006–2007. A slow increase of I in the current cycle 23 permits us to forecast a low-Wolf-number cycle 24 with the maximum W50 at 2010–2011. A scheme is proposed on the permanent transformation of the coronal magnetic fields of different scales explaining the found phenomenon.     

Phase Relation Between Activities of Solar Active Prominences Separately at low and High Latitudes

In the present work, the phase relation between activities of solar active prominences respectively at low and high latitudes in the period 1957–1998 has been studied. We found that from the solar equator to the solar poles, the activity of the solar active prominences occurs earlier at higher latitudes, and that the cycle of the solar active prominences at high latitudes (larger than 50°) leads by 4 years both the sunspot cycle and the corresponding cycle of the solar active prominences at low latitudes (less than 40°).     

Use of ground-based coronal data to predict the date of solar-cycle maximum

Prediction of the exact date of the maximum of the 11-year solar activity cycle is a matter of disagreement among solar scientists and of some importance to satellite operators, space-system designers, etc. Most predictions are based on physical conditions occurring at or before the solar-cycle minimum preceding the maximum in question. However, another indicator of the timing of the maximum occurs early in the rise phase of the solar cycle. A study of the variation over two previous solar cycles of coronal emission features in Fe xiv from the National Solar Observatory at Sacramento Peak has shown that, prior to solar maximum, emission features appear above 50° latitude in both hemispheres and begin to move towards the poles at a rate of 8° to 11° of latitude per year. This motion is maintained for a period of 3 or 4 years, at which time the emission features disappear near the poles. This phenomenon has been referred to as the `Rush to the Poles'. These observations show that the maximum of solar activity, as seen in the sunspot number, occurs approximately 19 ± 2 months before the features reach the poles. In 1997, Fe xiv emission features appeared near 55° latitude, and began to move towards the poles. Using the above historical data from cycles 21 and 22, we will see how the use of progressively more data from cycle 23 affects the prediction of the date of solar maximum. The principal conclusion is that the date of solar maximum for cycle 23 could be predicted to within 6 months as early as 1997. For solar cycle 24, when this phenomenon first becomes apparent later this decade, the average parameters for cycles 21–23 can be used to predict the date of solar maximum.     

Asymmetric behavior of different solar activity features over solar cycles 20–23

This paper presents the study of normalized north–south asymmetry, cumulative normalized north–south asymmetry and cumulative difference indices of sunspot areas, solar active prominences (at total, low (?40°) and high (?50°) latitudes) and Hα solar flares from 1964 to 2008 spanning the solar cycles 20–23. Three different statistical methods are used to obtain the asymmetric behavior of different solar activity features. Hemispherical distribution of activity features shows the dominance of activities in northern hemisphere for solar cycle 20 and in southern hemisphere for solar cycles 21–23 excluding solar active prominences at high latitudes. Cumulative difference index of solar activity features in each solar cycle is observed at the maximum of the respective solar cycle suggesting a cyclic behavior of approximately one solar cycle length. Asymmetric behavior of all activity features except solar active prominences at high latitudes hints at the long term periodic trend of eight solar cycles. North–south asymmetries of SAP (H) express the specific behavior of solar activity at high solar latitudes and its behavior in long-time scale is distinctly opposite to those of other activity features. Our results show that in most cases the asymmetry is statistically highly significant meaning thereby that the asymmetries are real features in the N–S distribution of solar activity features.     

The Extended Solar Cycle Tracked High into the Corona

We present observations of the extended solar cycle activity in white-light coronagraphs, and compare them with the more familiar features seen in the Fe?xiv green-line corona. We show that the coronal activity zones seen in the emission corona can be tracked high into the corona. The peak latitude of the activity, which occurs near solar maximum, is found to be very similar at all heights. But we find that the equatorward drift of the activity zones is faster at greater heights, and that during the declining phase of the solar cycle, the lower branch of activity (that associated with the current cycle) disappears at about 3R _??. This implies that during the declining phase of the cycle, the solar wind detected near Earth is likely to be dominated by the next cycle. The so-called ??rush to the poles?? is also seen in the higher corona. In the higher corona it is found to start at a similar time but at lower latitudes than in the green-line corona. The structure is found to be similar to that of the equatorward drift.     

AN ‘EXTENDED SOLAR CYCLE’ AS OBSERVED IN Fe XIV

Investigation of the behavior of coronal intensity above the limb in Fexiv emission (530.3 nm) obtained at the National Solar Observatory at Sacramento Peak over the last 23 years has resulted in the confirmation of a second set of zones of solar activity at high latitudes, separate from the Main Activity Zones (MAZ). Localized high-latitude intensity maxima, which I will call High-latitude Emission Features (HEF), are observed at 0.15 solar radii above the limb throughout the solar cycle. They persist long enough at a given latitude to be visible in long-term (e.g., annual) averages. I identify two types of HEF. Poleward-moving HEF, which may be identified with the Rush to the Poles phenomenon seen in polar-crown prominences, were first seen to appear in this investigation near latitude 60° in 1978. In 1979 equatorward-moving HEF branched off from the poleward-moving HEF (which continued on to reach the pole in 1980) at a latitude of 70° to 80°. They evolved approximately parallel to the MAZ. Near solar minimum, these HEF evolved into the MAZ of cycle 22, and the emission continues its path towards the equator, where it should disappear soon.Currently, it is clear that the pattern seen earlier is repeating. The poleward-moving HEF became apparent near the beginning of 1988 near 50° to 60° latitude. The northern poleward-moving HEF reached the pole and disappeared in 1990. The southern poleward-moving HEF moved more slowly, reaching the pole and disappearing in 1991. The equatorward-moving HEF that are the precursors of cycle 23 appeared in 1989 to 1990 and began to move approximately parallel to the MAZ of cycle 22. Based on inferences from previous cycles, we can expect these HEF to continue to the equator, with emission ceasing there near 2009. These recent observations increase the evidence for an extended solar cycle that begins every 11 years but lasts for approximately 19–20 years.     

The basic cycle of solar activity and the global magnetic field and active phenomena distribution

We have compared the latitudinal distributions of polar faculae, green coronal emission maxima, prominences and of a new index of enhanced geomagnetic recurrence with the distribution of magnetic fields during the cycles Nos. 20 and 21.We did not find a distinct high-latitude initial stage of an extended cycle in the corona, prominences and polar faculae distribution. On the contrary, it seems that the polar faculae and their following polarity magnetic fields represent the last evolutionary phase of a magnetic activity cycle lasting 15–17 years. The enhanced recurrent geomagnetic activity seems to be related to the old cycle fields.All studied phenomena clearly display two types of latitudinal distribution: the polar belts, into which the old following polarity fields have been transported from the equatorial belt where both the polarities developin situ simultaneously, but in which the leading polarity fields only remain, crossing the equator during the minimum of activity, to play the same role on the opposite hemispheres in the new cycle.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.     

Preliminary prediction of solar cycles 24 and 25 based on the correlation between cycle parameters

The correlation between various parameters of solar cycles 1–23 is investigated. The derived regressions are used to make predictions of solar cycles 24 and 25. It is expected that solar cycle 24 will reach its maximum amplitude of 110.2 ± 33.4 in April–June 2012 and the next minimum will occur in December 2018–January 2019. The duration of solar cycle 24 will be about 11.1 years. Solar cycle 25 will reach its maximum amplitude of 112.3 ± 33.4 approximately in April–June 2023.     

The asymmetry of solar activity in the years 1959–1969

One of the most outstanding feature of solar activity in the decade 1959–1969 was a very strong asymmetry on the two hemispheres. On the northern hemisphere spots, faculae and prominences were more numerous and the white light corona was brighter than on the southern hemisphere. This happened as well in the main zone as in the polar zone. The green coronal line too was brighter on the northern hemisphere, but the intensity of the red line was asymmetric in the opposite sense. From this behaviour it follows that over the more active hemisphere the corona is denser and hotter. Between density N _e and temperature T holds the relation: N _e = 10^–10 T ³. The real asymmetry was strengthened by a phase difference of the two hemispheres. This phase shift is subject to a long period that contains 8 eleven-year cycles. The intensity of the individual cycles follows the same long period. With low maxima of solar activity the northern hemisphere precedes, with high maxima the southern hemisphere (Figure 3).Astronomische Mitteilungen der Eidgenössischen Sternwarte Zürich, No. 302.     

Polar Coronal Holes During Cycles 22 and 23

The National Solar Observatory/Kitt Peak synoptic rotation maps of the magnetic field and of the equivalent width of the He i 1083 nm line are used to identify and measure polar coronal holes from September 1989 to the present. This period covers the entire lifetime of the northern and southern polar holes present during cycles 22 and 23 and includes the disappearance of the previous southern polar coronal hole in 1990 and and formation of the new northern polar hole in 2001. From this sample of polar hole observations, we found that polar coronal holes evolve from high-latitude (60° ) isolated holes. The isolated pre-polar holes form in the follower of the remnants of old active region fields just before the polar magnetic fields complete their reversal during the maximum phase of a cycle, and expand to cover the poles within 3 solar rotations after the reversal of the polar fields. During the initial 1.2–1.4 years, the polar holes are asymmetric about the pole and frequently have lobes extending into the active region latitudes. During this period, the area and magnetic flux of the polar holes increase rapidly. The surface areas, and in one case the net magnetic flux, reach an initial brief maximum within a few months. Following this initial phase, the areas (and in one case magnetic flux) decrease and then increase more slowly reaching their maxima during the cycle minimum. Over much of the lifetime of the measured polar holes, the area of the southern polar hole was smaller than the northern hole and had a significantly higher magnetic flux density. Both polar holes had essentially the same amount of magnetic flux at the time of cycle minimum. The decline in area and magnetic flux begins with the first new cycle regions with the holes disappearing about 1.1–1.8 years before the polar fields complete their reversal. The lifetime of the two polar coronal holes observed in their entirety during cycles 22 and 23 was 8.7 years for the northern polar hole and 8.3 years for the southern polar hole.     

Does the Poleward Migration Rate of the Magnetic Fields Depend on the Strength of the Solar Cycle?

We present the pattern of the polar magnetic reversal for cycle 23 derived from H synoptic charts and have also included the reversals of the earlier cycles 18–22 for comparison. At the beginning of a new cycle (i.e., soon after the polar reversal) the zonal boundaries of unipolar magnetic regions of opposite polarities (seen as filament bands on the synoptic charts) appear close to and on either side of the equator continuing through the years of minimum indicating the onset of the cancellation of flux at these low latitudes. The cycle thus starts with cancellation of flux close to the equator and ends with the polar reversal or flux cancellation near the poles. The filament bands just below the polemost ones migrate and reach latitudes 35°–45° by the time of polar reversal and become the polemost, once the polar reversal has taken place. During the years of minimum that follow, these filament bands remain more or less stagnant at the latitudes 35°–45° except for occasional slow migration towards the equator. The migration to the poles starts at a low speed of 3 m s^–1 only when the spot activity has risen to a significant level and then it accelerates to 30 m s^–1 at the peak of the activity. It takes 3–4 years for the polemost bands to reach the poles moving at these high speeds. We quantify this possible cause and effect phenomenon by introducing the concept of the `strength of the solar cycle' and represent this by either of a set of three parameters. We show that the velocity of poleward migration is a linear function of the `strength of the solar cycle'.