An investigation into the precipitation conditions in Romania using a GIS-based method

Summary This paper promotes a GIS-based method that allows the visualization, the identification and the qualitative assessment of relationships existing among a limitless number of climatological variables. We use a variety of precipitation variables from fourteen Romanian weather stations to demonstrate the techniques and discuss its benefits and limitations.     

一种短历时降雨综合评估方法在广州市的应用

基于广州市5个国家气象站1981-2015年逐小时降水资料,应用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法对广州市气象站不同历时降雨年际变化特征进行分析,应用百分位法建立了一种基于降雨极值和降雨持续时间的短历时降雨综合等级评估方法,并使用此方法对2007-2011年广州市21次降雨过程进行综合评估,同时对灾损因子和短历时降雨因子进行相关性分析。结果表明,广州市短历时强降雨发生频次和极值均呈现上升趋势,其中1h强降雨频次上升趋势最为显著;综合等级评估方法对短历时降雨灾情具有一定的指示作用;短历时降雨持续时间和6h降雨极值与部分灾损因子相关系数较高。     

On the measurement of dew

Summary Measurement of dew amounts have been made with a number of different devices on a lawn at the Weather Bureau, Pretoria, over an eighteen-month period, from April 1960 to September 1961. Experiments with artificial grass mats and asbestos plates showed that hygroscopic material is impracticable for the measurement of dew deposit.Parchinger's absorption method was improved and the amounts obtained on 30 days were compared with those of other devices. A new type of dew-indicator, where use is made of a specially prepared filter-paper strip that changes colour when wetted, was developed during the first months of the measuring period and then applied to this investigation. Seven different devices for measuring the amount of dew have been used simultaneously on thirty days and the results obtained are discussed. Montly frequency of occurrence and amount of dew over the measuring period are given.

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Zusammenfassung Die Messung von Taumengen ist mit einer Anzahl verschiedener Methoden auf einem Rasen des Wetterbüros Pretoria während einer Periode von 18 Monaten (April 1960 bis September 1961) durchgeführt worden. Experimente mit künstlichen Grasmatten und Asbestplatten haben gezeigt, daß hygroskopisches Material für die Messung des Tauniederschlages ungeeignet ist.Parchingers Absorptionsmethode wurde verbessert, und die damit an 30 Tagen erhaltenen Beträge wurden mit denen anderer Methoden verglichen. Ein neuartiger Tauanzeiger, bei dem ein besonders präparierter Filterpapierstreifen gebraucht wird, der seine Färbung durch Nässe verändert, wurde während der ersten Monate der Meßperiode entwickelt und dann bei der Untersuchung eingesetzt. Sieben verschiedene Methoden für die Messung der Taumenge wurden an 30 Tagen gleichzeitig benützt; die erhaltenen Resultate werden diskutiert. Monatswerte der Häufigkeit des Auftretens von Tau und Werte der Taumenge während der Meßperiode werden mitgeteilt.

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Résumé Les quantités de rosée furent mesurées durant 18 mois (avril 1960 à septembre 1961) par plusieurs instruments au-dessus d'un gazon du Service météorologique de Pretoria. On a en outre effectué divers essais au moyen de paillassons artificiels et de plaques d'amiante. Il en est résulté que les matériaux hygroscopiques ne sont pas pratiques pour la mesure des précipitations déposées par la rosée. On a en outre amélioré la méthode d'absorption deParchinger et comparé les valeurs obtenues ainsi à celles des autres instruments. Au début de la période de référence, on a également développé un nouvel indicateur de rosée qui consiste en une bande de papier-filtre préparé spécialement et dont la couleur varie avec l'humidité. Cet indicateur fut également pris en considération lors de la présente recherche. On a ainsi mis en parallèle sept appareillages différents pour la mesure des quantités de rosée, et cela durant 30 jours. Les résultats obtenus sont discutés. On mentionne enfin la fréquence et les quantités mensuelles de rosée durant la période d'essais.

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With 7 Figures     

广西寒露风开始期短期气候预测方法研究

利用1951-2013年广西90个气象观测站气温资料、国家气候中心74项指数和美国National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration（NOAA）的Climate Prediction Center（CPC）60项指数以及海温和陆地雪盖资料、美国国家冰雪研究中心（NSIDC）的两极海冰资料,使用相关分析方法得到广西寒露风开始期气候影响因子,利用逐步回归和神经网络方法进行寒露风开始期的预测。结果表明：寒露风开始期与前一年9-10月北极海冰面积、当年3月南极海冰面积、前一年6月欧亚雪盖、当年5月北美雪盖、北半球雪盖的相关显著。与前一年9月北半球极涡面积指数、前一年10月亚洲区极涡面积指数、前一年3月热带印度洋海温偶极子等指数相关显著。粒子群-神经网络方法预测误差低于逐步回归方法,预报能力有明显提高。     

An expert system for predicting the regional heavy rain

This paper outlines an expert system for predicting the regional heavy rain, including its structure, functions, characteristics, knowledge processing, inference performance, the running, results and conclusions.This system can accept, recognize, analyse, explain, understand, use, appreciate and refine the forecasting knowledge in MKL (Meteorological Knowledge Language) taught by meteorologists. The MKL language is good for describing meteorological knowledge and can represent almost all forecasting knowledge, thus ena-bling the system, with a great range of knowledge, to raise the processing abilities. The complex inference procedure can also be simplified by using MKL language.     

Passive dew collection in a grassland area, The Netherlands

Passive dew collection experiments were initiated in late 2003 in the centre of The Netherlands within a grassland area. A specially designed 1 m² insulated planar dew collector, set at a 30° angle from horizontal, was covered with a thin (0.39 mm) polyethylene foil and subsequently replaced with 4 mm polyvinyl chloride. A second dew collector, in the shape of an inverted pyramid, was constructed to reduce the view angle to only the nighttime sky. A simple surface energy-budget model and an aerodynamic model were used to simulate the dew collected by both collectors. The planar collector collected about 90% of the dew at the grass cover while the pyramid collector collected about 1.20% of the grass cover. The aerodynamic model was able to predict the amount of collector data to within 50% for the planar collector and 60% for the inverted pyramid collector. The pyramid collector design was able to collect about 20% more dew than the inclined planar collector.     

雷暴持续时间与地闪活动的预报方法研究

根据2007—2008年6—8月湖南地区地闪定位、天气背景及探空资料,利用天气学分型及数理统计等方法,对湖南夏季雷暴的天气背景、持续时间以及雷暴过程中地闪的活动进行分析,定义的地闪频数指数(Icgf)可以较好地区分地闪活动等级;利用逐步回归方法分别得到了雷暴持续时间及地闪频数指数的预报方程,且均通过的信度检验,并进一步提出了各地闪活动等级预报的诊断指标。     

一种大范围干旱的识别方法及其应用

基于日本APHRO格点降水数据计算格点SPI序列,兼顾时空连续性,定义了一种大范围长历时干旱的识别方法。该方法以我国国土面积的10%作为大范围干旱事件影响范围的最小阈值,同时给定了干旱事件影响区域的空间连续和时间连续的判定标准,另辅以干旱烈度计算方法和干旱中心的识别方法,给出了此类干旱事件的面积、历时、烈度及干旱中心的指数定义和事件的识别过程。在此基础上,识别了我国1961—2015年以来的69次大范围干旱事件,得出这69次大范围干旱事件的平均面积指数为30.49%,平均干旱历时为8.15个月,平均干旱烈度为-4.192。利用此方法对1998—2002年发生在华北地区的持续性区域干旱事件进行再分析。结果表明,这一时期的干旱事件不仅局限于华北地区,同时也波及到东北、西北、西南和东南等地,涉及了4次大范围长历时的干旱过程。     

Chemical composition of dew in Amman, Jordan

Twenty-six dew samples were collected on a glass surface from an urbanized area in Amman city during the period October 1999 to June 2000. They were analyzed for the major ions (Cl, SO₄, NO₃, Ca, Mg, Na, K and NH₄) in addition to three heavy metals (Pb, Cd and Co). Rain samples were collected for the same period and compared to the chemical constituents of dew.It was found that both rain and dew samples were of almost neutral acidity due to the buffering effect of CaCO₃. Dew composition was mainly from CaSO₄ solution due to conversion of CaCO₃ to CaSO₄ when left exposed to a sulfate-rich atmosphere. The total dissolved solids were higher in dew than rain samples of the same period. This was attributed to higher evaporation effect on dew than rain.The heavy metal content in dew is highest during the cold winter season (December–March) due to excess fossil fuel combustion for heating purposes in this period. The heavy metal content in dew was lower than that for rain during the same period because of the shorter period of dew formation than rainwater.     

基于最优化相关分析的油菜开花期预报模型研究

为了最大限度地满足政府举办特色农业旅游的需求,以高淳为例,研究分析了高淳油菜农业气象观测数据,发现油菜开花期与t≥3 ℃的有效积温呈极显著相关关系;进而利用最优化相关分析法,筛选出影响油菜开花期的最佳建模因子,创建了开花期气象中期预测模型以及基于环流和海面温度的开花期长期预测模型,均达到α＝0.001显著水平,预报时效可提前10～30 d;经检验,三种模型的历史拟合结果和三年试报效果较好;在此基础上,试用了三种模型的复相关系数作为加权系数进行加权平均,综合集成预报效果更佳。油菜开花期预报将对公众踏青赏花和政府招商引资具有现实的意义,同时预报思路可为其他作物花期预报研究提供借鉴。     

冰雹云“酝酿”期研究

本文提出了冰雹云单体生命史中“酝酿”期的概念、现象和事实。文章还指出了“酝酿”期的特征和物理意义。     

An investigation of climate drift in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model

Climate drift is a common and serious problem in most state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice models. We consider the nature of climate drift in such a model, and in particular address the question of whether or not climate drift is inherent to the model, or whether the drift can be averted by a suitable choice of initial conditions or coupling procedure. The synchronous approach to coupling was adopted in which the ocean, atmosphere and sea ice models were spun-up independently to equilibrium using climatological forcing fields. The models were then coupled and integrated forward in time. Several experiments were performed which were designed to assess the impact of different coupling methodologies and changes in the initial conditions of the component models on the climate drift of the system. The results of our experiments indicate that climate drift is a problem inherent to the coupled model in that systematic errors in the components lead to incompatibilities in the surface fluxes required by the component models to maintain realistic climatologies. We conclude that climate drift can be averted only if the parameterizations of certain important physical processes are improved which should have the effect of reducing or eliminating these incompatibilities.     

On the contribution of atmospheric moisture to dew formation

The relative contributions of dewfall (a flux of water vapour from air to surface) and distillation (a flux of water vapour from soil to canopy) to dew formation on closed canopy and bare soil surfaces are assessed, and the dependence of dew amount upon wind speed, absolute temperature, atmospheric stability, relative humidity, soil characteristics and cloudiness, all of which are significant factors, is evaluated. Some of these evaluations provide refinements to similar ones given in Monteith (1961). High dewfall rates are usually 0.06 mm hr^–1 over canopy or bare soil, though upon a canopy under soil-saturated and air-saturated conditions, rates of dew formation may reach 0.07–0.09 mm hr^–1 with contributions from distillation. Various sets of observations are reanalyzed to illustrate the importance of the horizontal advection of moisture in the nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) to observed high rates of dew formation arising from the atmospheric contribution of water vapour (dewfall). These locally observed high dewfall rates must be the result of small-scale or mesoscale horizontal advection of moisture in the NBL, since the humidity changes within the typically shallow NBL required to balance the loss of water at the surface are not observed. Over extensive areas of uniform surface (horizontal scales 10 km), such continuously high dewfall rates could only be balanced by a local supply of atmospheric moisture since advection of moisture would necessarily be small.     

An experimental investigation of a wind-generated suspension of particulate matter from a tailings disposal area

A wind tunnel investigation of the wind erosion of uranium mine-tailings material typical of a northern Ontario site has been carried out. The aim of the study was to measure the effects of various parameters, including mean and turbulent wind characteristics of the boundary layer and surface moisture content, upon the erosion process. The analysis of experimental data has yielded a mathematical model for predicting the net vertical mass fluxes. The results show that the dry vertical flux is proportional to u _* ^2.3and the wet flux to u _* ^5.0 Partical size analysis was also carried out.     

An analysis of onset date and rainy season duration over Zambia

Summary This study investigates the onset and cessation dates of the main summer rainy season over Zambia, their interannual variability, and potential relationships with ENSO and regional circulation anomalies. Focus is placed on onset and cessation dates because these rainy season characteristics are often of more relevance than seasonal rainfall totals to user groups such as farmers, water resource managers, health and tourism officials. It is found that there is substantial interannual variability in these parameters with some indications of a relationship between anomalies in onset date and those in Ni?o3.4 SST, particularly over the northern part of the country. A strong gradient exists between the south and the north in terms of rainfall amount, mean onset date and mean cessation date and all areas of the country experience significant variability. Analysis of circulation anomalies for early (late) onset seasons over northern Zambia shows that they are characterised by anomalous ridging (troughing) over and south of South Africa, a weaker (stronger) Angola heat low and enhanced (reduced) low level moisture flux into eastern Zambia from the Indian Ocean. The connection with ENSO during the onset season of austral spring appears to arise both through changes in the amount of subsidence over southern Africa as well as via the so-called Pacific South America pattern that extends across the South Pacific and South Atlantic towards southern Africa. Authors’ address: S. Hachigonta, C. J. C. Reason, M. Tadross, Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa.     

An investigation of tropical Atlantic bias in a high-resolution coupled regional climate model

Coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) commonly fail to simulate the eastern equatorial Atlantic boreal summer cold tongue and produce a westerly equatorial trade wind bias. This tropical Atlantic bias problem is investigated with a high-resolution (27-km atmosphere represented by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, 9-km ocean represented by the Regional Ocean Modeling System) coupled regional climate model. Uncoupled atmospheric simulations test climate sensitivity to cumulus, land-surface, planetary boundary layer, microphysics, and radiation parameterizations and reveal that the radiation scheme has a pronounced impact in the tropical Atlantic. The CAM radiation simulates a dry precipitation (up to ?90%) and cold land-surface temperature (up to ?8?K) bias over the Amazon related to an over-representation of low-level clouds and almost basin-wide westerly trade wind bias. The Rapid Radiative Transfer Model and Goddard radiation simulates doubled Amazon and Congo Basin precipitation rates and a weak eastern Atlantic trade wind bias. Season-long high-resolution coupled regional model experiments indicate that the initiation of the warm eastern equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) bias is more sensitive to the local rather than basin-wide trade wind bias and to a wet Congo Basin instead of dry Amazon—which differs from AOGCM simulations. Comparisons between coupled and uncoupled simulations suggest a regional Bjerknes feedback confined to the eastern equatorial Atlantic amplifies the initial SST, wind, and deepened thermocline bias, while barrier layer feedbacks are relatively unimportant. The SST bias in some CRCM simulations resembles the typical AOGCM bias indicating that increasing resolution is unlikely a simple solution to this problem.     

改进晴空辐射精度的一种处理方法

本文提出在HIRS/2视场中部分有云情况下,由一组相邻视场测值反演晴空辐射的一种方法,并用数值模拟试验对这种方法的精度与Aoki的Q8方法进行了比较,其精度比Aoki的Q8方法有相当大的提高。     

风场预报的客观释用方法

本文介绍了数值预报提供的风场格点资料在客观预报软件中的释用方法,主要从资料处理、天气系统判断、涡旋度判断、急流判断、地面锋区判断及稳定度判断等方面作了详细阐述.为风场预报的客观释用作了较好的总结,在业务科研开发中具有一定的实用价值.     

中期天气客观相似预报方法

本文提出了一个10天中期天气客观相似预报方法。该方法应用预报时刻的最新信息及中期数值预报输出产品,按客观的相似判据,应用微电脑从历史资料中寻找出500hPa天气形势演变的相似过程,据此作出10天中期天气预报。业务应用表明,该方法对10天中期天气过程具有一定的预报能力。