Probabilistic sensitivity and modeling of two-dimensional transport in porous media

A reliability approach is used to develop a probabilistic model of two-dimensional non-reactive and reactive contaminant transport in porous media. The reliability approach provides two important quantitative results: an estimate of the probability that contaminant concentration is exceeded at some location and time, and measures of the sensitivity of the probabilistic outcome to likely changes in the uncertain variables. The method requires that each uncertain variable be assigned at least a mean and variance; in this work we also incorporate and investigate the influence of marginal probability distributions. Uncertain variables includex andy components of average groundwater flow velocity,x andy components of dispersivity, diffusion coefficient, distribution coefficient, porosity and bulk density. The objective is to examine the relative importance of each uncertain variable, the marginal distribution assigned to each variable, and possible correlation between the variables. Results utilizing a two-dimensional analytical solution indicate that the probabilistic outcome is generally very sensitive to likely changes in the uncertain flow velocity. Uncertainty associated with dispersivity and diffusion coefficient is often not a significant issue with respect to the probabilistic analysis; therefore, dispersivity and diffusion coefficient can often be treated for practical analysis as deterministic constants. The probabilistic outcome is sensitive to the uncertainty of the reaction terms for early times in the flow event. At later times, when source contaminants are released at constant rate throughout the study period, the probabilistic outcome may not be sensitive to changes in the reaction terms. These results, although limited at present by assumptions and conceptual restrictions inherent to the closed-form analytical solution, provide insight into the critical issues to consider in a probabilistic analysis of contaminant transport. Such information concerning the most important uncertain parameters can be used to guide field and laboratory investigations.     

Two-dimensional modeling of contaminant transport in porous media in the presence of colloids

It has long been known that colloids can facilitate the transport of contaminants in groundwater systems by reducing the effective retardation factor. A significant effort has been devoted to study colloid-facilitated contaminant transport during the past decade. Many of the previous studies were restricted to one-dimensional analyses and comparisons with finite-column experiments. In this work, a two-dimensional numerical model is developed and used to study the different interactions between colloids, contaminants, and porous media under homogeneous conditions. The numerical formulation of the model is based on discretizing mass balance equations and reaction equations using finite differences having a third-order, total variance-diminishing scheme for the advection terms. This scheme significantly reduces numerical dispersion and leads to greater accuracy compared to the standard central-differencing scheme. The model is tested against analytical solutions under simplified conditions as well as against experimental data, and the results are favorable. The model is used to investigate the impact of the various reaction rates and parameter values on the movement of contaminant plumes in two dimensions. The model is also used to investigate the hypothesis that colloids may increase the effective retardation factor of contaminant plumes. The analysis shows that assuming kinetic mass exchange between contaminant and colloids with constant reaction rate coefficients that are not related to the concentrations may lead to inaccurate results. These inaccurate results are exemplified in the finding that under the kinetic assumption the ratio of the initial concentration of colloids to the initial concentration of contaminant does not affect the amount of facilitation or retardation that occurs in the system. It is also found that colloids can increase the effective retardation factor for the contaminant under certain combinations of reaction rates and distribution coefficients. A quantitative empirical expression to identify whether colloids retard or facilitate the contaminant movement is presented.     

Probabilistic collocation and lagrangian sampling for advective tracer transport in randomly heterogeneous porous media

The Karhunen-Loeve (KL) decomposition and the polynomial chaos (PC) expansion are elegant and efficient tools for uncertainty propagation in porous media. Over recent years, KL/PC-based frameworks have successfully been applied in several contributions for the flow problem in the subsurface context. It was also shown, however, that the accurate solution of the transport problem with KL/PC techniques is more challenging. We propose a framework that utilizes KL/PC in combination with sparse Smolyak quadrature for the flow problem only. In a subsequent step, a Lagrangian sampling technique is used for transport. The flow field samples are calculated based on a PC expansion derived from the solutions at relatively few quadrature points. To increase the computational efficiency of the PC-based flow field sampling, a new reduction method is applied. For advection dominated transport scenarios, where a Lagrangian approach is applicable, the proposed PC/Monte Carlo method (PCMCM) is very efficient and avoids accuracy problems that arise when applying KL/PC techniques to both flow and transport. The applicability of PCMCM is demonstrated for transport simulations in multivariate Gaussian log-conductivity fields that are unconditional and conditional on conductivity measurements.     

Variable-density groundwater flow and solute transport in porous media containing nonuniform discrete fractures

Variations in fluid density can greatly affect fluid flow and solute transport in the subsurface. Heterogeneities such as fractures play a major role for the migration of variable-density fluids. Earlier modeling studies of density effects in fractured media were restricted to orthogonal fracture networks, consisting of only vertical and horizontal fractures. The present study addresses the phenomenon of 3D variable-density flow and transport in fractured porous media, where fractures of an arbitrary incline can occur. A general formulation of the body force vector is derived, which accounts for variable-density flow and transport in fractures of any orientation. Simulation results are presented that show the verification of the new model formulation, for the porous matrix and for inclined fractures. Simulations of variable-density flow and solute transport are then conducted for a single fracture, embedded in a porous matrix. The simulations show that density-driven flow in the fracture causes convective flow within the porous matrix and that the high-permeability fracture acts as a barrier for convection. Other simulations were run to investigate the influence of fracture incline on plume migration. Finally, tabular data of the tracer breakthrough curve in the inclined fracture is given to facilitate the verification of other codes.     

Numerical analysis of bacterial transport in saturated porous media

A mathematical model to describe bacterial transport in saturated porous media is presented. Reversible/irreversible attachment and growth/decay terms were incorporated into the transport model. Additionally, the changes of porosity and permeability due to bacterial deposition and/or growth were accounted for in the model. The predictive model was used to fit the column experimental data from the literature, and the fitting result showed a good match with the data. Based on the parameter values determined from the literature experimental data, numerical experiments were performed to examine bacterial sorption and/or growth during bacterial transport through saturated porous media. In addition, sensitivity analysis was performed to investigate the impact of key model parameters for bacterial transport on the permeability and porosity of porous media. The model results show that the permeability and porosity of porous media could be altered due to bacterial deposition and growth on the solid matrix. However, variation of permeability due to bacterial growth was trivial compared with natural permeability variation. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of Cryptosporidium parvum oocyst transport in porous media

Cryptosporidium parvum is a protozoan parasite, transmitted through aqueous environments in the form of an oocyst. In this study, a transport model into which sorption, filtration and inactivation mechanisms are incorporated is applied to simulate laboratory column data, and the suitability of a kinetic model to describe the C. parvum oocyst transport and removal in porous media is compared with an equilibrium model. The kinetic model is applied to simulate previous column experimental data and successfully simulates the concentration peak; the late time tailing effect appeared in the breakthrough curves, indicating that the kinetic model is more suitable than the equilibrium one at simulating the fate and transport of the oocysts in porous media. Simulation illustrates that sorption causes retardation along with a tailing in the breakthrough curve. Additionally, filtration acts as a major mechanism of removing the oocysts from the aqueous phase, whereas the role of inactivation in reducing the viable oocyst concentration is minimal. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Combination of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for sediment transport modeling in sewer pipes

Mitigation of sediment deposition in lined open channels is an essential issue in hydraulic engineering practice.Hence,the limiting velocity should be determined to keep the channel bottom clean from sediment deposits.Recently,sediment transport modeling using various artificial intelligence(AI) techniques has attracted the interest of many researchers.The current integrated study highlights unique insight for modeling of sediment transport in sewer and urban drainage systems.A novel methodology...     

Groundwater transport modeling with nonlinear sorption and intraparticle diffusion

Despite recent advances in the mechanistic understanding of sorption in groundwater systems, most contaminant transport models provide limited support for nonideal sorption processes such as nonlinear isotherms and/or diffusion-limited sorption. However, recent developments in the conceptualization of “dual mode” sorption for hydrophobic organic contaminants have provided more realistic and mechanistically sound alternatives to the commonly used Langmuir and Freundlich models. To support the inclusion of both nonlinear and diffusion-limited sorption processes in groundwater transport models, this paper presents two numerical algorithms based on the split operator approach. For the nonlinear equilibrium scenario, the commonly used two-step split operator algorithm has been modified to provide a more robust treatment of complex multi-parameter isotherms such as the Polanyi-partitioning model. For diffusion-limited sorption, a flexible three step split-operator procedure is presented to simulate intraparticle diffusion in multiple spherical particles with different sizes and nonlinear isotherms. Numerical experiments confirmed the accuracy of both algorithms for several candidate isotherms. However, the primary advantages of the algorithms are: (1) flexibility to accommodate any isotherm equation including “dual mode” and similar expressions, and (2) ease of adapting existing grid-based transport models of any dimensionality to include nonlinear sorption and/or intraparticle diffusion. Comparisons are developed for one-dimensional transport scenarios with different isotherms and particle configurations. Illustrative results highlight (1) the potential influence of isotherm model selection on solute transport predictions, and (2) the combined effects of intraparticle diffusion and nonlinear sorption on the plume transport and flushing for both single-particle and multi-particle scenarios.     

An efficient,high-order probabilistic collocation method on sparse grids for three-dimensional flow and solute transport in randomly heterogeneous porous media

In this study, a probabilistic collocation method (PCM) on sparse grids is used to solve stochastic equations describing flow and transport in three-dimensional, saturated, randomly heterogeneous porous media. The Karhunen–Loève decomposition is used to represent log hydraulic conductivity Y=ln_Ks$Y=\ln K_s$. The hydraulic head h   and average pore-velocity v$\mathbf{v}$ are obtained by solving the continuity equation coupled with Darcy’s law with random hydraulic conductivity field. The concentration is computed by solving a stochastic advection–dispersion equation with stochastic average pore-velocity v$\mathbf{v}$ computed from Darcy’s law. The PCM approach is an extension of the generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) that couples gPC with probabilistic collocation. By using sparse grid points in sample space rather than standard grids based on full tensor products, the PCM approach becomes much more efficient when applied to random processes with a large number of random dimensions. Monte Carlo (MC) simulations have also been conducted to verify accuracy of the PCM approach and to demonstrate that the PCM approach is computationally more efficient than MC simulations. The numerical examples demonstrate that the PCM approach on sparse grids can efficiently simulate solute transport in randomly heterogeneous porous media with large variances.     

Stochastic modeling of solute transport in 3-D heterogeneous porous media with random source condition

During probabilistic analysis of flow and transport in porous media, the uncertainty due to spatial heterogeneity of governing parameters are often taken into account. The randomness in the source conditions also play a major role on the stochastic behavior in distribution of the dependent variable. The present paper is focused on studying the effect of both uncertainty in the governing system parameters as well as the input source conditions. Under such circumstances, a method is proposed which combines with stochastic finite element method (SFEM) and is illustrated for probabilistic analysis of concentration distribution in a 3-D heterogeneous porous media under the influence of random source condition. In the first step SFEM used for probabilistic solution due to spatial heterogeneity of governing parameters for a unit source pulse. Further, the results from the unit source pulse case have been used for the analysis of multiple pulse case using the numerical convolution when the source condition is a random process. The source condition is modeled as a discrete release of random amount of masses at fixed intervals of time. The mean and standard deviation of concentration is compared for the deterministic and the stochastic system scenarios as well as for different values of system parameters. The effect of uncertainty of source condition is also demonstrated in terms of mean and standard deviation of concentration at various locations in the domain.     

Uncertainty assessment for watershed water quality modeling: A Probabilistic Collocation Method based approach

Watershed water quality models are increasingly used in management. However, simulations by such complex models often involve significant uncertainty, especially those for non-conventional pollutants which are often poorly monitored. This study first proposed an integrated framework for watershed water quality modeling. Within this framework, Probabilistic Collocation Method (PCM) was then applied to a WARMF model of diazinon pollution to assess the modeling uncertainty. Based on PCM, a global sensitivity analysis method named PCM-VD (VD stands for variance decomposition) was also developed, which quantifies variance contribution of all uncertain parameters. The study results validated the applicability of PCM and PCM-VD to the WARMF model. The PCM-based approach is much more efficient, regarding computational time, than conventional Monte Carlo methods. It has also been demonstrated that analysis using the PCM-based approach could provide insights into data collection, model structure improvement and management practices. It was concluded that the PCM-based approach could play an important role in watershed water quality modeling, as an alternative to conventional Monte Carlo methods to account for parametric uncertainty and uncertainty propagation.     

A master equation for reactive solute transport in porous media

The mean value of a density of a cloud of points described by a generalized Liouville equation associated with a convection dispersion equation governing adsorbing solute transport yields a joint concentration probability density. The general technique can be applied for either linear or nonlinear adsorption; here the application is restricted to linear adsorption in one-dimensional transport. The equation generated for the joint concentration probability density is in the general form of a Fokker-Planck equation, but with a suitable coordinate transformation, it is possible to represent it as a diffusion equation with variable coefficients.     

Numerical simulations of non-ergodic solute transport in three-dimensional heterogeneous porous media

Numerical simulations of non-ergodic transport of a non-reactive solute plume by steady-state groundwater flow under a uniform mean velocity, , were conducted in a three-dimensional heterogeneous and statistically isotropic aquifer. The hydraulic conductivity, K(x), is modeled as a random field which is assumed to be log-normally distributed with an exponential covariance. Significant efforts are made to reduce the simulation uncertainties. Ensemble averages of the second spatial moments of the plume and the plume centroid variances were simulated with 1600 Monte Carlo (MC) runs for three variances of log K, _Y²=0.09, 0.23, and 0.46, and a square source normal to of three dimensionless lengths. It is showed that 1600 MC runs are needed to obtain stabilized results in mildly heterogeneous aquifers of _Y²0.5 and that large uncertainty may exist in the simulated results if less MC runs are used, especially for the transverse second spatial moments and the plume centroid variance in transverse directions. The simulated longitudinal second spatial moment and the plume centroid variance in longitudinal direction fit well to the first-order theoretical results while the simulated transverse moments are generally larger than the first-order values. The ergodic condition for the second spatial moments is far from reaching in all cases simulated and transport in transverse directions may reach ergodic condition much slower than that in longitudinal direction.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Romania and sensitivity analysis: A case of joint consideration of intermediate-depth (Vrancea) and shallow (crustal) seismicity

The earthquake risk on Romania is one of the highest in Europe, and seismic hazard for almost half of the territory of Romania is determined by the Vrancea seismic region, which is situated beneath the southern Carpathian Arc. The region is characterized by a high rate of occurrence of large earthquakes in a narrow focal volume at depth from 70 to 160 km. Besides the Vrancea area, several zones of shallow seismicity located within and outside the Romanian territory are considered as seismically dangerous. We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, which implemented the “logic tree” approach, and which considered both the intermediate-depth and the shallow seismicity. Various available models of seismicity and ground-motion attenuation were used as the alternative variants. Seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensities, peak ground acceleration, and response spectra was evaluated for various return periods. Sensitivity study was performed to analyze the impact of variation of input parameters on the hazard results. The uncertainty on hazard estimates may be reduced by better understanding of parameters of the Vrancea source zone and the zones of crustal seismicity. Reduction of uncertainty associated with the ground-motion models is also very important issue for Romania.     

Total variation diminishing schemes for pollutant transport in porous media

A bidimensional numerical model has been used in order to simulate the contaminant transport in the coastal groundwater area (Atlantic margin of the Rharb basin, Morocco). This groundwater is materialized by means of the salt contamination derived from several factors: evapotranspiration, lithological series formations, marine intrusion, and processes of interaction between water and rocks. In order to reduce the numerical diffusion and limit the numerical dispersion, we use the Superbee flux limiter as a total variation diminishing scheme to discretize the convective operator. This kind of discretization was applied to the coastal groundwater of the Rharb basin (Morocco). The results show that the Superbee flux limiter is efficient at drawing the path of the contaminant front with high accuracy. Consequently, this scheme could constitute an approach in water management and allows one to prevent the risks of pollution and to manage the groundwater resource from a durable development perspective. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adaptive split-operator methods for modeling transport phenomena in porous medium systems

Split-operator methods are commonly used to approximate environmental models. These methods facilitate the tailoring of different approximation approaches to different portions of the differential operator and provide a means to split large coupled problems into pieces that are more amenable to parallel computation than the original fully-coupled problem. However, split-operator methods introduce an additional source of approximation error into the solution, which is typically either ignored or controlled heuristically. In this work, we develop two methods to estimate and control the error in split-operator methods, which lead to a dynamic adjustment of the temporal splitting step based upon the error estimators. The proposed methods are shown to yield robust solutions that provide the desired control of error. In addition, for a typical nonlinear reaction problem, the new methods are shown to reduce the solution error by more than two orders of magnitude compared to standard methods for an identical level of computational effort. The algorithms introduced and evaluated have widespread applicability in environmental modeling.     

Multi-physics modeling of flow and transport in porous media using a downscaling approach

Multi-phase flow and transport processes generally occur on different spatial and temporal scales. Very often also, within a physical system, they vary in space meaning that different kinds of processes might take place in different parts of the system. In order to account for the variety of processes and to take their scale-dependence into account, the development of multi-scale multi-physics techniques can be envisaged.