Projections of SO2, NOx and carbonaceous aerosols emissions in Asia

Estimates of Asian emissions of air pollutants and carbonaceous aerosols and their mid-term projections have been changing significantly in the last years. The remote sensing community has shown that increase in NO _x in Central East Asia is much stronger than any of the emission inventories or projections indicated so far. A number of studies reviewing older estimates appeared. Here, we review the key contributions and compare them to the most recent results of the GAINS model application for Asia and to the SRES projections used in the IPPC work. The recent projections indicate that the growth of emissions of SO₂ in Asia should slow down significantly towards 2010 or even stabilize at the current level. For NO _x , however, further growth is projected although it will be most likely slower that in the last decade, owing to introduction of measures in transport. Emissions of carbonaceous aerosols (black carbon and organic carbon) are expected to decline after 2010, largely due to reduced use of biofuels in residential sector and efficiency improvements. The estimates of these emissions are burdened with significantly larger uncertainties than SO₂ and NO _x ; even for the year 2000 the differences in estimates between studies are up to a factor of 2.     

Vertical profiles of biospheric and fossil fuel-derived CO2 and fossil fuel CO2 : CO ratios from airborne measurements of Δ14C, CO2 and CO above Colorado, USA

Measurements of  Δ¹⁴C  in atmospheric CO₂ are an effective method of separating CO₂ additions from fossil fuel and biospheric sources or sinks of CO₂. We illustrate this technique with vertical profiles of CO₂ and  Δ¹⁴C  analysed in whole air flask samples collected above Colorado, USA in May and July 2004. Comparison of lower tropospheric composition to cleaner air at higher altitudes (>5 km) revealed considerable additions from respiration in the morning in both urban and rural locations. Afternoon concentrations were mainly governed by fossil fuel emissions and boundary layer depth, also showing net biospheric CO₂ uptake in some cases. We estimate local industrial CO₂:CO emission ratios using in situ measurements of CO concentration. Ratios are found to vary by 100% and average 57 mole CO₂:1 mole CO, higher than expected from emissions inventories. Uncertainty in CO₂ from different sources was ±1.1 to ±4.1 ppm for addition or uptake of −4.6 to 55.8 ppm, limited by  Δ¹⁴C  measurement precision and uncertainty in background  Δ¹⁴C  and CO₂ levels.