南极陨石研究的启示Ⅷ:原始无球粒陨石及其成因

近年来,在南极和非南极地区回收的异常陨石中已识别８个原始无球粒陨石群：斜方辉石－橄榄石无球粒陨石、富橄榄石无球粒陨石、橄榄古铜陨铁、橄辉无球粒陨石、顽辉石－镁橄榄石无球粒陨石及ＡＢ－ＣＤ硅酸盐、顽辉石无球粒陨石及钛辉无球粒陨石。斜方辉石－橄榄石无球粒陨石及橄榄古铜陨铁具有相似的矿物学、矿物成分、热历史、氧同位素组成及宇宙射线暴露年龄,他们系来自共同的母体。ＡＢ－ＣＤ硅酸盐及顽辉石－镁橄榄石无球粒陨石的氧同位素组成、化学及矿物学也相似,认为他们来自共同的母体。在考察岩石学证据的基础上,将ＡＢ－ＣＤ硅酸盐和顽辉石－镁橄榄石无球粒陨石、富橄榄石无球粒陨石、斜方辉石－橄榄石无球粒陨石及橄榄古铜陨铁以及橄辉无球粒陨石划分为非岩浆型的原始无球粒陨石,他们为高度变质并伴随不同程度部分熔融的岩石;而顽辉石无球粒陨石及钛辉无球粒陨石为火成岩石,但未受到广泛的分异作用和分异形成不同岩性的岩石,将其划分为岩浆型的原始无球粒陨石。到目前为止,共有六个原始无球粒陨石母体。     

Grazing of Salpa thompsoni on phytoplankton in summer in the Prydz Bay region, Antarctica

During the CHINARE ⅩⅤ cruise in austral summer of 1998/1999, the abundance and feeding activity of Salpa thompsoni were investigated in the Prydz Bay region. Salps samples were collected by vertical tows from the depth of 200 m to the surface with a conical net of 330 μm mesh size. At ⅤⅠ 3 station, the grazing rates were studied by the gut fluorescence method and culture experiments. S. Thompsoni was mainly distributed in the northern part of the survey area, and its maximum densities reached to 2795 ind.·1000 m -3 . A dramatic decrease in salp stock was observed at the Marginal Ice Zone. The results of the feeding experiments at the ⅤⅠ 3 show that the gut pigment contents of S. thompsoni ranged from (0.14 1.27) μg ind. -1 (average 0.98 μg ind. -1 ). The individual ingestion rate is 7.9 μg ind. -1 ·day -1 , and the filtration rate is 28 L ind. -1 ·day -1 . Through the daily grazing rate of S. thompsoni , which takes account of less than 1% of the phytoplankton standing stock, it shows a relatively higher grazing impress on the primary production (72.2%).     

准噶尔盆地西北缘梭梭种群结构和空间格局特征

 为了揭示准噶尔盆地西北缘梭梭种群的分布特点,结合径级结构、静态生命表和存活曲线,对准噶尔盆地西北缘两种典型生境条件下梭梭种群年龄结构和空间分布格局进行了研究。研究显示,在不同生境条件下,梭梭种群径级结构差异明显。山前戈壁梭梭种群Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ径级个体数占所有径级个体总数的96.21%,大径级个体缺失,该种群发育时间较短,种群处于增长阶段;干涸湖底梭梭种群Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ径级个体数占所有径级个体总数的63.38%,存在一定数量的大径级个体,该种群发育历史较长,种群处于稳定阶段。格局分析表明,在不同生境条件下,梭梭种群均呈聚集分布。在梭梭种群的不同发育阶段,随径级的增大,种群分布由聚集分布向随机分布或均匀分布发展。总体来看,不同生境条件下梭梭种群年龄结构和空间分布格局差异明显。这是种群发育历史、物种特性、环境、干扰等因素综合作用的结果。     

中国南极考察队越冬队员的心理选拔方法初探

本研究是首次对中国南极考察队越冬预选队员进行心理选拔方法的探讨。以第十三、十四次中国南极考察队５４名越冬预选队员为对象,在冬训期间,对选拔方法的设计、实施、分析及改进作了探索,应用了艾森克人格问卷（ＥＰＱ）、行为类型问卷（ＢＰＱ）、卡特尔十六种人格因素问卷（１６ＰＦ）、自编自陈问卷、应激水平实验和直接行为观察等可供参考的选拔方案,并作了效度检验,为我国南极考察队员的选拔工作取得了初步经验,选拔方案尚待进一步完善。     

气候变化背景下北极海冰对我国冬季气温的影响研究

利用1961—2015年中国冬季气温资料、中国气象局逐月北极海冰密集度指数资料和美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NCEP/NCAR)环流资料,采用滑动相关、时滞相关及偏相关等分析方法,探讨了秋季北极海冰对中国冬季气温的影响。结果表明,秋季北极海冰改变了后期冬季西西伯利亚高压和华北高压强弱,导致我国西北地区和长江与黄河之间地区冬季气温异常。进一步分析发现,西北地区冬季气温的异常主要是受西西伯利亚高压影响,而长江与黄河之间冬季气温的异常主要是受华北高压影响。而秋季北极海冰通过改变后期冬季欧亚中高纬度环流,进一步影响高原地区冬季气温。     

The Science of Dystopia: A Retrospective on Nuclear Winter Modeling*

This essay questions the effectiveness of nuclear winter modeling as a means of impacting nuclear policy and changing public attitudes about nuclear issues. In nuclear winter modeling, humanistic concern over the possibility of global environmental destruction is cloaked in the ostensibly neutral language of science. Nuclear winter modeling attempts to apply rational argument to an issue that is rooted instead in human affect and morality. The implications of this misappropriation are discussed in terms of the dehumanizing nature of the images conjured up by nuclear winter, its attention to the effects of nuclear weapons rather than deeper structural problems, and its political ambiguity as a function of unresolvable uncertainty in model results.     

Titles Of Theses

This essay questions the effectiveness of nuclear winter modeling as a means of impacting nuclear policy and changing public attitudes about nuclear issues. In nuclear winter modeling, humanistic concern over the possibility of global environmental destruction is cloaked in the ostensibly neutral language of science. Nuclear winter modeling attempts to apply rational argument to an issue that is rooted instead in human affect and morality. The implications of this misappropriation are discussed in terms of the dehumanizing nature of the images conjured up by nuclear winter, its attention to the effects of nuclear weapons rather than deeper structural problems, and its political ambiguity as a function of unresolvable uncertainty in model results.     

Interdecadal correlation of solar activity with Tibetan Plateau snow depth and winter atmospheric circulation in East Asia

Studies on the impact of solar activity on climate system are very important in understanding global climate change. Previous studies in this field were mostly focus on temperature, wind and geopotential height. In this paper, interdecadal correlations of solar activity with Winter Snow Depth Index (WSDI) over the Tibetan Plateau, Arctic Oscillation Index (AOI) and the East Asian Winter Monsoon Index (EAWMI) are detected respectively by using Solar Radio Flux (SRF), Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and Solar Sunspot Number (SSN) data and statistical methods. Arctic Oscillation and East Asian winter monsoon are typical modes of the East Asian atmospheric circulation. Research results show that on interdecadal time scale over 11-year solar cycle, the sun modulated changes of winter snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau and East Asian atmospheric circulation. At the fourth lag year, the correlation coefficient of SRF and snow depth is 0.8013 at 0.05 significance level by Monte-Carlo test method. Our study also shows that winter snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau has significant lead and lag correlations with Arctic Oscillation and the East Asian winter monsoon on long time scale. With more snow in winter, the phase of Arctic Oscillation is positive, and East Asian winter monsoon is weak, while with less snow, the parameters are reversed. An example is the winter of 2012/2013, with decreased Tibetan Plateau snow, phase of Arctic Oscillation was negative, and East Asian winter monsoon was strong.     

欧亚大陆冬季雪深的时空演变特征及其影响因子分析

利用美国冰雪资料中心(National Snow and Ice Data Center)提供的前苏联1948~1994年逐日积雪深度资料,定义了冬季雪深增量的概念,探讨了欧亚大陆秋末雪深、冬季雪深、冬季雪深增量的时空演变规律,通过比较分析三者的异常变化特征,揭示了三者之间可能存在的联系。经验正交函数分解(EOF)结果表明:欧亚大陆冬季雪深、冬季雪深增量的第一模态的空间分布特征均为大致以50°N为界的南北反相变化,欧亚大陆北部的积雪深度和冬季雪深增量都呈现出一致性的变化趋势;两者对应的时间序列均反映了显著的年代际变化特征,且年代际转变均发生在20世纪70年代中期前后。第二模态则呈现出欧亚大陆东、西部反相的偶极型空间分布特征。进一步分析表明,欧亚大陆秋末雪深无论从空间分布还是时间演变来看与冬季雪深几乎不存在相关性。欧亚大陆冬季雪深变化主要是冬季雪深增量影响所致,与秋末雪深无关。     

向极跨越70°N气旋的主要特征分析

北极地区以南生成并向北移动进入极区的气旋,在移动发展过程中常伴随大风、降水和升温等过程,对中低纬度地区物质和热量向极地输送起着重要作用,并对极区大气、海洋和海冰的变化产生一定影响。基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)发布的1979—2015年的海平面气压再分析数据产品,利用气旋自动识别和追踪算法,开展气旋的识别和追踪,获得向极跨越70°N气旋的数量、强度、活动轨迹及北向运动纬距等主要特征如下:该类气旋在数量上,春、冬季多于夏、秋季,年总数量和春、秋、冬季均呈减少趋势;强气旋易发于冬季,弱气旋多发于夏季;该类气旋活动轨迹,冬季集中分布在海上,夏季在陆地上;该类气旋北向运动纬距整体平均为9.2°,冬季平均最大,为10.2°,夏季平均最小,为7.3°;在年际变化上,年平均和春、冬季平均呈增长趋势,夏、秋季平均呈减少趋势;在年代际变化上,年平均和夏、冬季平均从1979—1988年到1989—1998年阶段都是减小的,到1999—2008年阶段是增大的,其后再减小,春、秋季则无明显趋势变化。     

多种东亚冬季风指数及其与中国东部气候关系的比较

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及气温和降水观测资料,对比分析了12种不同定义的东亚冬季风(EAWM)指数及其与中国东部冬季温度和降水的关系。结果显示:多数EAWM指数具有较好的一致性,同时也存在差异,体现了不同定义的指数反映东亚冬季风整体性和局部性特征的侧重点有所不同。有10个EAWM指数均反映出近60年东亚冬季风呈减弱趋势,尤其是近30年最为明显,平均减弱速率达-0.25σ/10a,各指数均有强烈的年际变率和年代际波动。有10个(8个)EAWM指数与我国东部冬季温度(降水)第1模态呈显著负相关;其中西伯利亚高压指数对冬季温度年际变率方差解释率最高(53.3%),而对降水年际变率方差解释率最高的是对流层中高层东亚经向风指数(50.4%)。此外,不同EAWM指数与温度和降水的对应关系在El Niňo状态、La Niňa状态有不同的变化,表明在利用单个EAWM指数监测冬季气候时,要考虑到各个指数在ENSO不同状态下具有的差异性参考意义。     

冬季北极涛动和北极海冰变化对东亚气候变化的影响

本文简要回顾了冬季北极涛动 (北大西洋涛动 )和北极海冰面积变化对东亚气候变化的影响、研究中存在的问题以及目前亟待解决的科学问题。     

南极长城站越冬队员个性和心理特点研究

本文利用个性调查、心理特点测定和行为观察等方法研究了中国南极考察队长城站越冬队员在南极极端环境和长期隔离状态下的心理适应性反应。结果表明：越冬后期，队员出现较多情绪波动、注意力不集中，个别队员较严重。卡特尔１６种人格因素的平均标准分居中者为多数，甚至略有增加；艾森克人格问卷中的４个分量表得分无明显变化。越冬队员居留南极１年后，外控成分有所增加，内控者减少。对心理特点的测试表明：辨别反应时和选择反应时无显著差异，简单反应时有明显延长；记忆力非但没有减退，反而有所提高，高级神经活动灵活性稍有降低。     

乌兰布和沙漠不同下垫面冬季沙尘通量

为揭示乌兰布和沙漠不同下垫面冬季沙尘通量的垂直分布,在野外实地监测的基础上对乌兰布和沙漠3种下垫面冬季输沙量进行测量分析。结果表明：近地表0～100 cm高度内冬季输沙量流动沙丘 > 梭梭固定沙丘 > 白刺半固定沙丘。各下垫面输沙量随高度呈下降趋势,流动沙丘、白刺半固定沙丘、梭梭固定沙丘符合幂函数分布,流动沙丘、梭梭固定沙丘输沙量集中于0～20 cm高度,白刺半固定沙丘集中于0～40 cm高度。风沙流幂函数通量系数a、b与粒径< 0.1 mm和粒径 >0.5 mm颗粒含量负相关,与粒径0.1～0.25 mm颗粒含量正相关,与粒径0.25～0.5 mm颗粒含量不相关。沙粒跃移高度在流动沙丘、白刺半固定沙丘和梭梭固定沙丘分别集中于0～3.59、0～4.33和0～2.36 cm;跃移高度与粒径<0.05 mm和0.1～0.5 mm颗粒含量正相关,尤其与粒径0.1～0.25 mm颗粒含量呈指数函数正相关,与粒径0.05～0.1 mm及>0.5 mm颗粒含量无明显相关性。乌兰布和沙漠流动沙丘在冬季仍具有较大的侵蚀状态,白刺半固定沙丘处于弱风蚀状态,梭梭固定沙丘处于堆积状态,造成地表积沙。在冬季,梭梭固定沙丘仍然发挥着防风固沙的能力,成为冬季固定风沙的重要防线。     

中国北方春季沙尘暴频数与北半球500hPa高度场的SVD分析

选取1957-2000年中国北方地区春季沙尘暴发生次数资料和北半球500hPa秋、冬、春季的平均高度场资料,对沙尘暴和高度场作SVD分析。结果表明,我国北方春季沙尘暴次数各地具有比较一致的变化趋势,表明可能与大尺度气候背景的变化有联系。变化的最敏感区域为内蒙古中西部地区、新疆西部、青海西部和东北地区。我国北方春季沙尘暴发生次数与同期及前期500hPa高度场有较好的相关关系,前期环流形势对春季沙尘暴频数有一定的指示和预测意义,冬季环流场尤其具有预报指示意义,因为前一年冬季北大西洋涛动对我国春季北方沙尘暴发生次数有影响。     

西南地区冬季气温和降水的时空变化

In recent years,the socio-economic impacts of winter extreme climate events have underscored the importance of winter climate anomalies in Southwest China (SWC).The spatio-temporal variability of surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation in SWC and their possible causes have been investigated in this paper based on observational data from 1961 to 2010.The results indicate that SAT anomalies in SWC have two dominate modes,one is homogenous,and the other a zonal dipole.The former is caused by the anomalies of East Asian winter monsoon;the latter arises from the anomalies of both subtropical west Pacific high and regional cold air in lower troposphere.The most dominant mode of precipitation anomalies in SWC is homogenous and it has a high correlation with northern hemisphere annular mode (NAM,AO).Neither NAM nor ENSO has significant impacts on SAT in SWC.The anomalies of NAM are associated with the anomalies of tropical circulations,and there-fore precipitation over the SWC.When NAM is in positive (negative) phase,the winter pre-cipitation is more (less) than normal in SWC.Winter precipitation increase over the whole SWC is associated with the El Nino.However,during La Nina winter,the pattern is not uni-form.There is an increase in precipitation over the central parts and a decrease in western and eastern parts of SWC.The severe drought in SWC in winter 2010 is more likely caused by anomalies of NAM,not El Nino.     

中国北方农牧交错带春季风速的年际变化与冬季海温的关系

利用中国北方农牧交错带1979—2016年64个气象台站的逐日风速资料、ERSST海温数据以及ERA-Interim再分析资料,探讨了前期冬季海温与北方农牧交错带春季风速年际变化的关系。研究表明,北方农牧交错带春季的风速存在强烈的逐年波动,年际方差占总方差的比例为36%。影响农牧交错带春季风速年际变化的前期冬季海温在北大西洋20°N~65°N区域呈现“负、正、负”的异常分布,在北太平洋10°N~55°N、130°W~180°区域呈现“负、正”的异常分布。冬季的海温异常与研究区春季风速年际变化联系的桥梁是北半球大尺度大气环流的异常。当北大西洋海温从高纬至低纬呈现“负、正、负”的异常分布时,从北大西洋至东亚位势高度呈明显的“正、负、正、负”的波列特征;当北太平洋海温从高纬至低纬呈现“负、正”的异常分布时,从北太平洋至东亚位势高度呈“负、正、负、正、负、正”的三波型分布。二者均能影响东亚地区春季大气环流的变化,导致东亚地区上空产生一个异常的气旋性环流,该气旋性环流在对流层中层与低层均存在,是造成研究区风速变化的直接原因。冬季海温与研究区春季风速的显著相关,说明冬季海温对农牧交错带春季风速的年际变化具有超前指示意义。利用北大西洋和北太平洋海温异常中心区的冬季海温作为预报因子,建立春季风速预报模型,可以解释风速年际变化的32%,回报交叉验证结果表明,海温与风速的时间滞后关系是显著和稳健的。     

Spatial land use regression of nitrogen dioxide over a 5-year interval in Calgary,Canada

We analysed the spatial distribution of nitrogen dioxide over Calgary (Canada) in summer 2010 and winter 2011 and in summer 2015 and winter 2016, and estimated land use regressions for 2015–16 (2010–11 models were estimated previously). As nitrogen dioxide exhibited spatial clustering, we evaluated the following spatial specifications against a linear model: spatially autoregressive (lag), spatially autoregressive (error), and geographically weighted regression. The spatially autoregressive (lag) specification performed best, achieving goodness-of-fit aligned with or greater than values reported in the literature. We compared the 2015–16 spatially autoregressive models with the 2010–11 models and reparametrized them on the 2010–11 and the 2015–16 data. Finally, we identified a single set of predictors to best fit the data. Nitrogen dioxide concentration decreased over the 5 years, retaining consistent spatial and seasonal patterns, with higher concentrations over traffic corridors and industrial areas, and greater variation in summer than winter. The multi-temporal analysis suggested that spatial land use regressions were robust over the time interval, despite moderate land use change. Multi-temporal spatial land use regressions yielded consistent predictors for each season over time, which can aid estimation of air pollution at fine spatial resolution over an extended time period.     

青藏高原强降水日数的时空分布特征

 根据青海和西藏48个气象台站近48 a（1961-2008年）的逐日降水和气温资料,分别以日降水量超过5 mm和25 mm作为冬半年（11月～翌年3月）和夏半年（5～9月）强降水的临界值,分析了青藏高原冬、夏半年强降水日数的时空分布特征。结果表明：（1）高原强降水日数与总降水量的空间分布型非常相似,夏半年均表现为由东南向西北递减,而冬半年则为由高原腹地向四周递减。（2）夏（冬）半年强降水主要集中在7月上旬～8月中旬（11月上旬和3月中下旬）。（3）夏（冬）半年强降水存在准6 a（5～6 a）的年际振荡以及准10～11 a（15 a）的年代际振荡。（4）强降水日数变化趋势的空间差异较大,夏半年高原北（南）部强降水日数普遍以增加（减少）趋势为主,而冬半年除雅鲁藏布江流域呈减少趋势外,高原大多数地区均表现出显著增加趋势。     

公路风吹雪防治工程设计量级计算初探

利用极值Ⅰ型分布和WeiBull分布研究了新疆阿勒泰闹海风区冬季风的极值分布、平均风速概率分布、引发风吹雪的风时数。利用极值、平均概率分布面域、风吹雪时数来量化风吹雪的强度,并将计算得出的风吹雪防治工程设计量级,纳入风吹雪影响区域内的公路设计中。结果表明:通过WeiBull分布的平均风速和风吹雪有效时间分布来计算防雪工程量级是一种公路风吹雪防治工程的计算方法,防雪工程的设计并没有明确的以再现期为指标的设计量级,仅存在防治灾害的量级。