准静止波强迫对1998年和1991年江淮洪涝影响的数值模拟

为了进一步检验青藏高原、北方冷空气及西太副高对1998年和1991年江南北部和江淮洪涝的影响,利用NCEP/NCAR的再分析格点资料和MM5中尺度模式分别对该两年夏季的两段强暴雨个例作了对照和滤波试验。模拟结果表明:在两次强暴雨个例中,考虑了中高纬度环流、青藏高原热力作用和低纬西太副高影响的对照试验,能相当好地再现中高纬度环流的平均场特征及形势演变的情景;而不包括上述准静止波异常影响的滤波试验的模拟结果与对照试验的结果相差较大,更接近多年平均的7月气候场。这证实北方冷空气活动、高原热力作用和西太副高位置对该两个个例中雨带的重要影响。同时,本文模拟也显示中尺度模式MM5有相当强的模拟中高纬度形势演变的能力,这种保留或滤除准静止波异常的模拟方法不失为一种讨论大尺度准静止波异常对区域气候影响的有效方法。     

二十面体和经纬网格模式在正压情况下的模拟效果对比分析

利用MPAS(Model for Prediction Across Scales)和北京大学浅水模式(PKU_SWM)对余弦钟和Rossby-Haurwitz波理想个例进行了模拟。结果表明:在余弦钟测试中,MPAS能更好的模拟出余弦钟的基本形态,但模拟结果的绝对误差较大;网格分辨率提高后,MPAS模拟效果提升得更明显。在Rossby-Haurwitz波测试中,MPAS模拟的槽脊位置和强度更加接近于初始分布形态,PKU_SWM模拟的槽脊的强度偏强,位置偏西,MPAS模拟效果整体要优于PKU_SWM;网格分辨率提高后,两模式模拟效果都有较大的提升。     

三维三层背风波的理论和数值研究

建立了一个三维三层背风波的理论模型，求出当Scorer参数满足中间层大，上、下两层小的情况下，三维三层背风波的理论波长和扰动分布。利用该理论模型对一个实际的背风波个例进行了计算，得到的理论波长与实际波长十分接近。理论结果还表明波动的最大扰动振幅在中层附近。利用ARPS（The Advanced Regional Prediction System） 模式对此个例模拟的结果表明，模拟得到的波长、锲角及波动位相的分布都与理论模型的结果较为一致。     

一种新型高度地形追随坐标在GRAPES区域模式中的实现:理想试验与比较研究

将一种新的高度地形追随坐标(Klemp坐标)引入了GRAPES区域模式,并与传统追随坐标(Gal-Chen坐标)和平缓地形追随坐标(SLEVE,Smooth Level Vertical coordinate)进行了比较。对不同坐标下气压梯度力的计算误差通过理想静止大气试验进行了评估,结果表明:与Gal-Chen坐标和SLEVE坐标相比,Klemp坐标有效地减小了气压梯度力的计算误差。理想重力波模拟试验表明,Klemp坐标下对重力波的模拟相比其他两种坐标也更接近于解析解。模式进一步采用了Mahrer气压梯度计算方案减少了计算误差,并提高了模式的精度和稳定性。实际个例试验与理想试验的结论相似。     

三层模式背风波的理论研究

文中建立了一个背风波的三层理论模式 ;当三层Scorer参数在中层最大、高层次之、下层最小的情况下 ,利用该模式求得了背风波的理论波长及扰动的解析解 ,并对一个典型的个例计算了其背风波波长 ,并在此基础上分析了背风波波长对上、中、下三层Scorer参数变化的敏感性 ,结果表明波长对中层Scorer参数的变化比较敏感 ,对下层Scorer参数的大小和符号都不敏感 ,但在计算背风波波长时不能忽略下层的Scorer参数。     

青藏高原边坡地形重力波拖曳方案应用的个例研究

本文针对我国西南地区的一次持续性暴雨过程,利用WRF模式引入地形重力波拖曳方案进行120h的模拟,对比结果认为引入地形重力波拖曳的模拟效果总体看来略有优势,并详细分析了不同模拟时段的位势高度场,风场,海平面气压场与降水,其结果认为,引入与未引入地形重力波模拟的差异主要出现在48~72h之后,位势高度场方面,72h之后,在青藏高原主体上引入拖曳方案后的模拟结果相对未引入拖曳方案的结果是正偏差,高原下游地区为负偏差,引入后的模拟相对准确;风场模拟方面同样72h以内的模拟差距较小,72h之后高原上出现一处气旋性涡旋,其中心位置的模拟,引入拖曳方案后的结果相对准确,本次个例中出现的一例西南低涡,两实验都能够较好的模拟出700h Pa的气旋性涡旋;降水模拟的结果表明,在72h之后,对于四川地区降水中心位置的模拟,引入拖曳方案的模拟有所提高,但中心依然过强。这方面主要考虑降水的模拟牵涉模式内部更为复杂的处理过程和其他因素,地形重力波拖曳只是其中一个影响因素而不是核心因素。另外此方案对温度场及海平面气压场模拟的影响不明显。理论上讲引入地形重力波拖曳效应的模拟是物理过程相对更为完善的,在本次个例中模拟效果也略优,但在高原下坡复杂地形处长期应用的模拟效果仍需要更多的测试,将在后续工作中加以完善。      

大气非线性波动方程的解

本文从非线性大气运动方程出发,用比较简洁的方法,求得了大气非线性惯性波、非线性重力内波和非线性Rossby波的周期解,这些解反映了非线性大气波动的特色。分析指出:对有限振幅的惯性波和重力内波,振幅大的波传播越快,而有限振福的非线性Rossby波,振幅大、波长长的波传播越慢;本文还分析了这些解的某些可能的实际意义。 这些非线性波的研究提供了解非线性方程的新的途径,而且,它可以与大家熟悉的线性波动进行比较。对于天气预报和大气湍流的研究都有一定的意义。     

静力平衡模式在中尺度大气模拟中的适用性问题

静力平衡模式是目前数值天气预报的主要模式。近年来随着模式分辨率的提高,非静力平衡模式在中国的研制和ＭＭ５等模式的引进,从理论研究和应用的角度看,有必要对这两种模式在中尺度大气模拟中的适用性问题作细致的分析研究。本文从理论上分析了静力平衡假定下重力波频率模拟的误差,指出其相对误差随Δｘ增大成平方的减少。当Δｘ≥２０ｋｍ时,相对误差小于４％,当Δｘ≤１０ｋｍ时,相对误差可能大于１６％。和一般顾名思义的概念不同,静力模式计算的重力波频率被夸大,计算的垂直加速度也由于略去惯性项而夸大。推导的准静力平衡模式,对静力平衡模式作了惯性项订正,个例试验也肯定了上述结果。     

Hamilton函数与非线性地形波

本文利用Hamilton函数求得包含地形的半地转正压模式中存在有限振幅周期波解与孤立波解的条件，并给出了波解的解析式，得到一些有意义的结果。     

MM5中尺度预报模式利用不同初始场模拟黄淮气旋结果的集成

选取三个黄淮气旋个例,分别以NCEP和T213客观分析场作为初始场,利用MM5模式对这些个例进行了模拟。将两种初始场模拟的黄淮气旋中心位置、中心强度和黄淮气旋前一时刻的实况位置作为输入,构建用于预测气旋中心位置和中心强度的人工智能神经元网络。发现:使用人工智能神经元网络可以较好地集成不同初始场下MM5模拟的黄淮气旋中心位置和强度,提高模式预报精度。     

A Novel Four-Wavelength Transmissometer for Distinguishing Haze and Fog

Haze and fog exhibit different microphysical and optical properties according to Mie scattering theory. Haze particles are smaller than fog droplets. Light of a shorter wavelength is reduced more than that of a longer wavelength during haze events. In fog, the differences between the extinction coefficients at different wavelengths are not as apparent. On the basis of the different light extinction characteristics of haze and fog, a novel four-wavelength transmissometer based on charge-coupled device （CCD） imaging was designed to distinguish haze from fog with central wavelengths at 415, 516, 650, and 850 nm. The four-wavelength transmissometer was tested in an insitu experiment during the winter of 2009. Fog was determined when the differences of the extinction coefficients at the four wavelengths were not notable, whereas haze was determined when the light at shorter wavelengths was significantly more reduced than that at longer wavelengths. A threshold which describes the relative size of the extinction coefficients at the four wavelengths was defined to distinguish between fog and haze. The four-wavelength transmissometer provided results consistent with the commercial fog monitor during several measurements made in fog and haze events, especially under conditions of low visibility and high relative humidity.     

Observations of Solitary Waves in the Stable Atmospheric Boundary Layer

Large amplitude, isolated, wave-like phenomena have been observed in the lowest 40 m of the strongly stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer overlying a coastal Antarctic ice shelf. The waves only occur when prevailing wind speeds are low. They always propagate from over the land, with phase speeds exceeding the local mean wind speed. They have wavelengths of the order of 200 m. Several examples are described and a summary of the statistical properties of these waves events is presented.     

ANALYTIC SOLUTIONS OF NONLINEAR WAVE EQUATIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE

In this paper,starting with the nonlinear equations of atmospheric motion and using a relatively simple method,we have obtained the periodic solutions to the nonlinear inertia waves,internal gravity waves and Rossby waves.These solutions represent the characteristics of nonlinear waves in the atmosphere.A preliminary analysis reveals that as for the inertia waves and internal gravity waves with finite amplitudes, the larger the amplitudes are,the faster the waves propagate,but for the Rossby waves with finite amplitudes,the larger the amplitudes and wavelengths are,the slower the waves move.The practical senses of the solutions are also discussed in this paper. This paper gives a new way to study the nonlinear waves.This result has certain significance for the weather forecasting and the study of atmospheric turbulence.     

Numerical simulation of scattered light polarization in a developing convective cloud for millimeter wavelengths

The optical characteristics of scattered light polarization in a developing convective cloud for millimeter wavelengths are numerically studied using the convection jet model and Stokes parameters. The analysis revealed that the value of all polarization forms does not depend on the cloud droplet spectrum and wavelength in the lower layers of a convective cloud. As the cloud droplet size increases and the wavelength decreases, the polarizations of all forms vary greatly and may have several maxima. It is also demonstrated that the degree of partial polarization may make no sense in the Rayleigh region at the certain values of polarization parameters.     

The stably stratified boundary layer over the great plains

Airplane measurements of the stably stratified boundary layer obtained during the Severe Environmental Storms and Mesoscale Experiment (SESAME) over rolling terrain in south-central Oklahoma indicate that considerable horizontal variability exists in the flow on scales of several kilometers. Much of this wave-like structure appears to be tied to the terrain. The criteria for existence of stationary gravity waves indicate that these waves can exist under the observed conditions. The spectrum of terrain variations also supports the existence of these waves. Observed spectra of the vertical velocity have two peaks: one at wavelengths of several kilometers, which is due to waves and the other at wavelengths of about 100 m, which is due to turbulence. The variance at several kilometers wavelength increases somewhat with height at least up to about 800 m, but the variance contributed by turbulence decreases rapidly with height.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

臭氧吸收参数数据库精度检验和验证

利用国际权威期刊上发表的臭氧吸收截面观测数据,检验和验证了现有的紫外正演模式TOMRAD臭氧吸收参数数据库。结果表明,在Hartley臭氧吸收带上,观测数据与数据库参数吻合状况很好;而在Huggins臭氧吸收带上,观测数据与数据库参数在部分波长上存在较大偏差,某些波长上的偏差超过50%。鉴于此,FY-3紫外臭氧探测仪资料处理计算中,选取臭氧吸收参数,必须特别慎重。     

Key issues in developing numerical models for artificial weather modification

The scientific foundation of artificial weather modification is meso- and small-scale dynamics and cloud–precipitation microphysics. Artificial weather modification requires the realistic coupling of weather patterns, dynamical processes, and microphysical processes. Now that numerical models with weather dynamical characteristics have been widely applied to artificial weather modification, several key points that should not be neglected when developing numerical models for artificial weather modification are proposed in this paper, including the dynamical equations, model resolution, cloud–precipitation microphysical processes, numerical computation method, and initial and boundary conditions. Based on several examples, approaches are offered to deal with the problems that exist in these areas.     

Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations in the MJO skeleton model with observation-based forcing

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) skeleton model is a low-order model for intraseasonal oscillations that, in an extended form, includes off-equatorial and antisymmetric components. Previous studies of this extended model have used an idealized background state and forcing terms. In the current study, observation-based estimates of these forcing terms and background state are used. Linear solutions to the extended model with this observation-based forcing consist of both equatorially-symmetric convective events and events with a meridional tilt reminiscent of composites of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) in observational studies. Solutions to a nonlinear stochastic form of the model exhibit realistic precipitation mean and variance and intraseasonal variability throughout much of the tropics. These solutions contain several types of events, including meridionally-tilted convective activity that moves both northward and eastward. Solutions to both forms of the model also indicate that this BSISO-like convective activity is coupled to activity over the eastern Pacific. A discussion of these features and their agreement with previous observational studies of the BSISO is given.     

On the failure of Laplace's tidal equations to model subinertial motions at a discontinuity in depth

Infinitesmal amplitude, inviscid, subinertial oscillations over a discontinuity in depth are considered distinguishing three ocean models: (i) the Laplacian model in which the flow is governed by Laplace's tidal equations (LTE); (ii) the more realistic geophysical model in which the Vaisala frequency is assumed to be much greater than the inertial frequency; and (iii) the laboratory model in which the fluid is homogeneous with the Vaisala frequency equal to zero. The Laplacian model supports free waves perfectly trapped at the step while the laboratory model supports no perfectly trapped waves. The two approximations nevertheless predict similar behavior, because in the presence of forcing, the surface mode of the laboratory model is highly excited at frequencies and wavenumbers close to those of the perfectly trapped solutions predicted by LTE. Only in the limit of very long, low-frequency motions does the Laplacian model describe the barotropic modes of the geophysical model well, qualitatively, and even here the quantitative disagreement in predicted phase speeds and group velocities is substantial. At shorter wavelengths, LTE qualitatively misrepresent the dispersion properties by erroneously predicting topographically trapped motions with vanishing group velocity at a subinertial upper limit to the frequency of free oscillation. In particular, the results indicate that, for the step topography, there is in general no trapped, barotropic mode (double-Kelvin wave) in the geophysical model. Thus, LTE fail in modeling even the barotropic parts of subinertial motions at a depth discontinuity and should not be used in such calculations.     

一个自组织气候模型

本文选择全球平均地表温度#AT#a和全球平均云量#An#a为状态变量。通过对气候系统中物理过程的研究与在气候意义上的合理近似，得到行星反照率α和大气有效发射率ε与状态变量的参数化关系，它们给出了气候系统内部几个重要的反馈过程。利用这些结果，建立起一个云和辐射相互作用的零维的非线性气候模型。在Hopf分支点附近，得到极限环的解析解，它们同数值解吻合得相当好，由解析解得到振幅，周期和位相差与太阳常数和CO2的近似关系，依此可估计它们在气候振荡中的作用，尤其，我们发现CO2的增加除有增温效应外，还能使气候振荡的振幅增加，这个结果意味着CO2的增加可能导致自然灾害周期性地出现或加剧。