Predictions for the Aurigid Outburst of 2007 September 1

The September 2007 encounter of Earth with the 1-revolution dust trail of comet C/1911 N1 (Kiess) is the most highly anticipated dust trail crossing of a known long period comet in the next 50 years. The encounter was modeled to predict the expected peak time, duration, and peak rate of the resulting outburst of Aurigid shower meteors. The Aurigids will radiate with a speed of 67 km/s from a radiant at R.A. = 92°, Decl. = +39° (J2000) in the constellation Auriga. The expected peak time is 11:36 ± 20 min UT, 2007 September 1, and the shower is expected to peak at Zenith Hourly Rate = 200/h during a 10-min interval, being above half this value during 25 min. The meteor outburst will be visible by the naked eye from locations in Mexico, the Western provinces of Canada, and the Western United States, including Hawaii and Alaska. A concerted observing campaign is being organized. Added in proof: first impression of the shower. Prepared as a contribution to the conference proceedings of “Meteoroids 2007”, to be published in the journal “Earth, Moon, and Planets”.     

The 1998 outburst and history of the June Boötid meteor shower

The June Boötid meteor shower (sometimes referred to as the Draconids) surprised a number of regular and casual observers by an outburst with maximum zenithal hourly rates (ZHRs) near 100 on 1998 June 27 after a quiescent period of several decades. A total of 1217 June Boötid meteors were recorded during regular visual meteor observations throughout this outburst. An average population index of r =2.2±0.10 was derived from 1054 shower magnitude estimates. The broad activity profile with ZHR>40 lasting more than 12 h and the large spread of apparent radiants in 1998 resemble the 1916 and 1927 outbursts. The peak time is found to be at about λ _⊙=95°.7 (2000.0); peak ZHRs are of the order of 200, whereas reliable averages reach only 81±7. The period of high ZHRs covered by a single observer implies a full width at half-maximum of 3–4 h. The resulting maximum flux of particles causing meteors brighter than +6.5 mag is between 0.04 and 0.06 km⁻² h⁻¹. The average radiant from photographic, radar and visual records is α =224°.12, δ =+47°.77. The observed activity outbursts in 1916, 1927 and 1998 are not related to the orbital period or the perihelion passages of the parent comet 7P/Pons–Winnecke. These are probably a consequence of the effects of the 2:1 resonance with Jupiter.     

Spectral,Photometric, and Dynamic Analysis of Eight Draconid Meteors

A Draconid meteor shower outburst was observed from on board two scientific aircraft deployed above Northern Europe on 8th October 2011. The activity profile was measured using a set of photographic and video cameras. The main peak of the activity occurred around 20:15 ± 0:0.5 UT which is consistent with the model prediction as well as with the IMO network visual observations. The corrected hourly rates reached a value of almost 350. The brighter meteors peaked about 15–20 min earlier than the dimmer ones. This difference can be explained by different directions of the ejection of the meteoroids from the parent comet. One of the instruments was even able to detect meteors connected with the material ejected from the parent comet before 1900 and thus confirmed the prediction of the model, although it was based on uncertain pre-1900 cometary data. Another small peak of the activity, which was caused by material ejected during the 1926 perihelion passage of the parent comet, was detected around 21:10 UT. The mass distribution index determined using the narrow field-of-view video camera was 2.0 ± 0.1. This work shows that the observation of meteor outbursts can constrain the orbital elements, outgassing activity and existence of jets at the surface of a comet.     

The origin of the June Bootid outburst in 1998 and determination of cometary ejection velocities

Numerical integrations are used to show that the main contribution to the outburst observed in the June Bootid meteor shower in 1998 was a subset of meteoroids released from the parent comet, 7P/Pons–Winnecke, at its 1825 return. A substantial part of the June Bootid stream is in 2:1 resonance with Jupiter. This inhibits chaotic motion, allowing structures in the stream to remain compact enough over centuries that meteor outbursts can still be produced. Circumstances of ejection in 1825 are calculated that exactly result in orbits capable of producing meteors at the observed time in 1998. Required ejection velocities are  10–20 m s^-1  .     

Video Observations of the 2006 Leonid Outburst

We carried out double station observations of the Leonid meteor shower outburst, which occurred in the morning hours of November 19, 2006. Using image-intensified cameras we recorded approximately 100 Leonid meteors. As predicted, the outburst was rich especially in fainter meteors. The activity profile shows that the peak of the outburst occurred at 4:40 ± 0:05 UT. The maximum reached flux was 0.03 meteoroids km⁻² hod⁻¹ for meteors brighter than +6.5 magnitude.     

Dust Trails of 8P/Tuttle and the Unusual Outbursts of the Ursid Shower

We calculate the position of dust trails from comet 8P/Tuttle, in an effort to explain unusual Ursid meteor shower outbursts that were seen when the comet was near aphelion. Comet 8P/Tuttle is a Halley-type comet in a 13.6-year orbit, passing just outside of Earth's orbit. We find that the meteoroids tend to be trapped in the 12:14 mean motion resonance with Jupiter, while the comet librates in a slightly shorter period orbit around the 13:15 resonance. It takes 6 centuries to decrease the perihelion of the meteoroid orbits enough to intersect Earth's orbit, during which time the meteoroids and comet separate in mean anomaly by 6 years, thus explaining the 6-year lag between the comet's return and Ursid outbursts. The resonances also prevent dispersion along the comet orbit and limit viewing to only one year in each return. We identified past dust trail encounters with dust trails from 1392 (Dec. 1945) and 1378 (Dec. 1986) and predicted another outburst on 2000 December 22 at around 7:29 and 8:35 UT, respectively, from dust trails dating to the 1405 and 1392 returns. This event was observed from California using video and photographic techniques. At the same time, five Global-MS-Net stations in Finland, Japan, and Belgium counted meteors using forward meteor scatter. The outburst peaked at 8:06±07 UT, December 22, at zenith hourly rate ∼90 per hour, and the Ursid rates were above half peak intensity during 4.2 h. We find that most Ursid orbits do scatter around the anticipated positions, confirming the link with comet 8P/Tuttle and the epoch of ejection. The 1405 and 1392 dust trails appear to have contributed similar amounts to the activity profile. Some orbits provide a hint of much older debris being present as well. This work is the strongest evidence yet for the relevance of mean motion resonances in Halley-type comet dust trail evolution.     

TVZHR profile for the 1991 Perseid shower

Image intensified video detection systems were used to observe the 1991 Perseid meteor shower from two locations in eastern Canada. In 29.6 hours of total observing time a total of 668 meteors were detected, of which 403 were Perseids. We derived a profile of TVZHR (television zenithal hourly rate) values for the 1991 Perseid shower over the solar longitude (epoch 2000) interval 138°51 to 141°01. The apparent limiting stellar magnitudes of the observing systems were +9.4 and +8.8 (corresponding to limiting meteor magnitudes for our geometry ranging from +8.7 to +7.0). Within the observing period, the maximum TVZHR rate was approximately 1600, and occurred at solar longitude 139.9°. This is in good agreement with the second peak observed by visual observers. The data suggest that TVZHR values should be divided by a factor of approximately 5 to compare TVZHR and ZHR values.     

Search for New Parent Bodies of Meteoroid Streams Among Comets. I. Showers of Comets 126P/1996 P1 and 161P/2004 V2 with Radiants on Southern Sky

We deal with theoretical meteoroid streams the parent bodies of which are two Halley-type comets in orbits situated at a relatively large distance from the orbit of Earth: 126P/1996 P1 and 161P/2004 V2. For two perihelion passages of each comet in the far past, we model the theoretical stream and follow its dynamical evolution until the present. We predict the characteristics of potential meteor showers according to the dynamical properties of theoretical particles currently approaching the orbit of the Earth. Our dynamical study reveals that the comet 161P/2004 V2 could have an associated Earth-observable meteor shower, although no significant number of theoretical particles are identified with real, photographic, video, or radar meteors. However, the mean radiant of the shower is predicted on the southern sky (its declination is about −23°) where a relatively low number of real meteors has been detected and, therefore, recorded in the databases used. The shower of 161P has a compact radiant area and a relatively large geocentric velocity of ∼53 km s⁻¹. A significant fraction of particles assumed to be released from comet 126P also cross the Earth’s orbit and, eventually, could be observed as meteors. However, their radiant area is largely dispersed (declination of radiants spans from about +60° to the south pole) and, therefore, mixed with the sporadic meteor background. An identification with real meteors is practically impossible.     

Observations of the 1985 Giacobinid meteor shower in Japan

A strong meteor shower was observed by members of the Nippon Meteor Society (NMS) during the evening of October 8, 1985, across Japan which was believed to be a display of the Giacobinids, the first strong display in Japan since the 1965 Leonids. Favorable weather allowed several types of observations to be made. Most observations were visual but some were made telescopically or photographically. FM radio and TV camera techniques were also used. The data obtained by observations and by photography are analyzed below. Main results are as follows:

• 1.(1) Considering the position of the radiant and the orbital elements of the meteors, the shower was undoubtedly the Giacobinids.
• 2.(2) The maximum zenithal hourly rate of the shower was 154 at 10^h10^m UT. This rate was, however, much lower than 5000 during the display of the Giacobinids in 1933 or in 1946.

     

Very precise orbits of 1998 Leonid meteors

Abstract— Seventy-five orbits of Leonid meteors obtained during the 1998 outburst are presented. Thirty-eight are precise enough to recognize significant dispersion in orbital elements. Results from the nights of 1998 November 16/17 and 17/18 differ, in agreement with the dominant presence of different dust components. The shower rate profile of 1998 November 16/17 was dominated by a broad component, rich in bright meteors. The radiant distribution is compact. The semimajor axis is confined to values close to that of the parent comet, whereas the distribution of inclination has a central condensation in a narrow range. On the other hand, 1998 November 17/18 was dominated by dust responsible for a more narrow secondary peak in the flux curve. The declination of the radiant and the inclination of the orbit are more widely dispersed. The argument of perihelion, inclination, and the perihelion distance are displaced. These data substantiate the hypothesis that trapping in orbital resonances is important for the dynamical evolution of the broad component.     

Meteor stream activity. III. Measurement of the first in a new series of Leonid outburst

Abstract— In 1994 November, a shower of bright Leonid meteors signaled what is likely the first meteor outburst of Leonids associated with the upcoming return of comet P/Tempel-Tuttle to perihelion. Measurements of meteor activity and the meteor brightness distribution are presented. By comparing the present observation with those of past Leonid returns, a forecast is made of the time, the duration, the intensity, and the mean meteor brightness of Leonid outbursts that may occur if previously observed patterns are repeated in the forthcoming years.     

Leonids 2006 observations of the tail of trails: Where is the comet fluff?

In 2006, Earth encountered a trail of dust left by Comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle two revolutions ago, in A.D. 1932. The resulting Leonid shower outburst was observed by low light level cameras from locations in Spain. The outburst peaked on 2006 Nov. 19d 04h39m ± 3m UT (predicted: 19d 04h50m ± 15m UT), with a FWHM of 43 ± 10 min (predicted: 38 min), at a peak rate of ZHR=80±10/h (predicted: 50-200 per hour). A low level background of older and brighter Filament Leonids (χ∼2.1) was also present, which dominated rates for Leonids brighter than magnitude +4. The 1932-dust outburst was detected among Leonids of +0 magnitude and brighter. These outburst Leonids were much brighter than expected, with a magnitude distribution index χ=2.60±0.15 (predicted: χ=3.47 and up). Trajectories and orbits of 24 meteors were calculated, most of which are part of the Filament component. Those that were identified as 1932-dust grains penetrated just as deep as Leonids in past encounters. We conclude that larger meteoroids than expected were present in the tail of the 1932-dust trail and meteoroids did not end up there because of low density. We also find that the radiant position of meteors in the Filament component scatter in a circle with radius 0.39°, which is wider than in 1998, when the diameter was 0.09°. This supports the hypothesis that the Filament component consists of meteoroids in mean-motion resonances.     

Spectroscopic Observations of the 2011 Draconids Meteor Shower

Some past October Draconid shower meteoroids fell apart in a spray of fragments at the end of their trajectory before slowing down, from which it was concluded that these were among the most fragile meteoroids known. In those instances, the dust could not be reliably traced to a particular return of the parent comet 21P/Giaconini-Zinner. On October 8th, 2011, Earth was predicted to transverse the 1900 A.D. dust ejecta of the comet. In 1900, the comet’s perihelion distance first moved significantly inwards to the Sun and ejection conditions could have been unusual. An airborne observing campaign was organized, with several teams contributing imaging and spectrographic cameras to study the manner in which these meteoroids released the volatile element sodium during the ablation process in the Earth’s atmosphere. IMCCE, ESA, and the SETI Institute contributed spectrographic cameras based on low-light WATEC 902H2 Ultimate, low-light LCC1, and GenII XX1332 image intensified cameras. An outburst was observed, much as predicted. Despite a lack of bright meteors, a total of 15 Draconid spectra were recorded. All show evidence of an early release of sodium. The loss of sodium was observed to coincide with the formation of a distinct wake of fragments. The observations show that 21P/Giacobini-Zinner ejected fragile meteoroids during the return in 1900. Those grains may have lost some sodium even before impacting Earth.     

Contour Observations of the Leonid Shower in 1999

Contour visual observations of the Leonid meteor shower were made on December 18, 1999 by the method in which different groups of observers counted meteors in zenith, near the horizon, and observed through binoculars to study the luminosity function and the space density of the swarm. The luminosity function was obtained in the range of magnitudes from –8 ^m to +9 ^m . Over a wide range of magnitudes, the luminosity function is found to be nonlinear and is adequately approximated with a second-order curve. The logarithm of the meteor space density (m) reaches saturation at about 10 ^m , indicating that particles that give rise to meteors fainter than 10 ^m are absent in the swarm. The meteor stream reached its activity peak at a solar longitude of 235°, 287 (2 ^h 05 ^m UT). The peak visual zenithal hourly rate was about 7000 per one observer over an averaging interval of 1 min. The swarm space density increased by a factor of 6 within 0.5 hours and exceeded 600 particles per 10⁹ km³ for meteors brighter than +4 ^m . In the peak night, the luminosity-function exponent demonstrates no regular trend and reflects the intercepting of certain swarm clouds by the Earth.     

Leonid outburst activity 1996: A broad structure and a first occurrence of a narrow peak of fainter meteors

Abstract— In 1996, a broad outburst structure of bright Leonid meteors similar to the 1995 and the 1994 displays (Jenniskens, 1996; Langbroek, 1996b) was observed. In addition, a second narrow outburst structure of fainter meteors, which will be reported and discussed in this paper, has with certainty been observed. This observation marks the first detection of such a narrow structure in the new series of Leonid outbursts. It has a similar exponential activity behaviour and similar emphasis on fainter meteors as shown by the 1866 and 1966 Leonid storm structures. Similar narrow peaks have been observed in 1965 and 1969 (Jenniskens, 1995, 1996). The broad 1996 structure of bright meteors peaked at November 17.31 ± 0.04 (λ 235°.28 ± 0.04 (2000.0)). The additional narrow structure peaked at November 17.20 ± 0.01 (λ 235°.172 ± 0.007). The occurrence of the narrow peak can best be explained as a first modest sign of presence of the meteoroid structure that should be responsible for the expected meteor storm activity of the Leonids in 1998–1999. The appearance 0.°085 before the node of 55P/Tempel-Tuttle suggests that the expected 1998–1999 Leonid storms might peak just before passage through the node of the comet.     

A micrometeor component of the 1998 Leonid shower

Most astronomers expected a significant meteor shower associated with the Leonid meteoroid stream to appear in 1998 and 1999. An enhanced shower was widely observed in both years, and details can be found in many published articles. In 1998, one remarkable feature was the appearance of a strong component, rich in bright meteors, which appeared about 16 h before the expected maximum of the main shower, but another observed feature was an abnormal peak in the ionosphere characteristic value f _b E _s which was detected about 18 h after the main shower. A very high value of f _b E _s persisted for over an hour. The likely explanation is that the ionosphere was bombarded by an additional swarm of meteoroids, much smaller than those that produce a visible trail or an ionization trail that can be picked up by radio detectors. The different dynamical behaviours between small and large meteoroids are investigated and, in consequence, an explanation for the observed phenomena is offered and 1933 is suggested as being the likely ejection time.     

The Third Peak of the 1998 Leonid Meteor Shower

1 INTRODUCTIONThe Leonid meteor shower is a well-known periodic meteor shower. Its history is tied upwith the development of the theory of meteor stream astronomy itself. It was the very st.rongshowers of 1799 and 1833 that played a sghficant pat in the recoghtion of the ealstence ofmeteoroid streams. These evellts started the obse~ions of Leoaid meteor shower and broughtabout the birth of meteoritiCS. It is known that the Leould parent comet, 55P/Tempel-TUttle,has an orbital period a…     

Geminid Meteor shower activity 2003–2005 as observed by Gadanki radar

The distribution of meteor signals reflected from a backscatter radar is considered according to their duration. This duration time (T) is used to classify the meteor echoes and to calculate the mass index (S) of different meteoroids of shower plus sporadic background. Observational data on particle size distribution of the Geminid meteor shower are very scarce, particularly at low latitudes. In this paper the observational data from Gadanki radar (13.46°N, 79.18°E) have been used to determine the particle size distribution and the number density of meteoroids inside the stream of the Geminid meteor shower. The mean variation of meteor number density across the stream has been determined for three echo duration classes, T<0.4, T=0.4–1 and T>1 s. We are more interested in the appearance of echoes of various durations and therefore meteors of various masses in order to understand more on the filamentary structure of the stream. It is observed that the faint particle flux peaks earlier than the larger particles. We found a decreasing trend in the mass index values from the day of peak activity to the next observation days. The mass index profile was found to be U-shaped with a minimum value near the time of peak activity. The observed minimum s values are 1.64±0.05 and 1.65±0.04 in the years 2003 and 2005, respectively. The activity of the shower indicates the mass segregation of meteoroids inside the stream. Our results are best comparable with the “scissors” structure model of the meteoroid stream formation of Ryabova [2007. Mathematical modeling of the Geminid meteoroid stream. Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 375, 1371–1380] by considering the asteroid 3200 Phaethon as an extinct comet.     

Taurid resonant-swarm encounters from two decades of visual observations

Enhanced Taurid activity in terms of visual meteor and fireball rates has been found in 1988, 1991, 1995, 1998 and 2005 data. The years of heightened activity are shown to be unequivocally linked to the encounters of swarms of resonantly trapped particles in the Taurid meteoroid stream according to the model proposed by Asher & Clube. While the annual activity level of the Taurid meteor shower in terms of zenithal hourly rate  (ZHR) is 7.8 ± 1.2  , swarm year activity typically reaches ZHRs of 12–17. The annual fraction of fireballs is below 1 per cent; in swarm years, this fraction is as high as 2.4–4.6 per cent near the maximum of the Taurid activity period.     

Structure of Perseids from visual observations

A new method of processing of visual meteor data has been worked outand applied to Perseid meteor shower observations. Reduced meteor hourly rates with magnitudes brighter than +3 are proportional to meteor flux densities with a coefficient equals to the effective collecting area. Corrections due to moon light and for meteor path lenghts were applied. Our observations 1972–1979 and 1982–1990 gave similar hourly rate profiles with a maximum rate of 71 meteors at solar longitude L=140.36°. Perseids 1980 and 1981 were about 1.5 times more active. The maximum Perseid activity in 1991–1992 was 119 meteors at solar longitude 139.54° and narrow peaks are observed at the same longitude showing an enhanced activity up to 225 meteors.