Western Indian Ocean marine and terrestrial records of climate variability: a review and new concepts on land–ocean interactions since AD 1660

We examine the relationship between three tropical and two subtropical western Indian Ocean coral oxygen isotope time series to surface air temperatures (SAT) and rainfall over India, tropical East Africa and southeast Africa. We review established relationships, provide new concepts with regard to distinct rainfall seasons, and mean annual temperatures. Tropical corals are coherent with SAT over western India and East Africa at interannual and multidecadal periodicities. The subtropical corals correlate with Southeast African SAT at periodicities of 16–30 years. The relationship between the coral records and land rainfall is more complex. Running correlations suggest varying strength of interannual teleconnections between the tropical coral oxygen isotope records and rainfall over equatorial East Africa. The relationship with rainfall over India changed in the 1970s. The subtropical oxygen isotope records are coherent with South African rainfall at interdecadal periodicities. Paleoclimatological reconstructions of land rainfall and SAT reveal that the inferred relationships generally hold during the last 350 years. Thus, the Indian Ocean corals prove invaluable for investigating land–ocean interactions during past centuries. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Orbital forcing of climate over South Africa: A 200,000-year rainfall record from the pretoria saltpan

Late Pleistocene variations in rainfall in subtropical southern African are estimated from sediments preserved in the Pretoria Saltpan, a 200000 year-old closed-basin crater lake on the interior plateau of South Africa. We show that South African summer rainfall covaried with changes in southern hemisphere summer insolation resulting from orbital precession. As predicted by orbital precession geometry (Berger, 1978), this South African record is out of phase with North African palaeomonsoon indices (Street and Grove, 1979; Rossignol-Strick, 1983; McIntyre et al., 1989); the amplitude of the rainfall response to insolation forcing agrees with climate model estimates (Prell and Kutzbach, 1987). These results document the importance of direct orbital insolation forcing on both subtropical North and South African climate as well as the predicted antiphase sensitivity to precessional insolation forcing.     

Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant impact over the tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean through Walker circulation. ENSO-induced negative (positive) NAO-like response and associated changes over Southern Europe and North Africa get significantly strong following increased intensity of El Niño (La Niña) in the northern (southern) hemisphere in the boreal winter (summer) season. We further find that ENSO magnitude significantly impacts Hadley and Walker circulations. The positive phase of ENSO (El Niño) overall strengthens Hadley cell and a reverse is true for the La Niña phase. ENSO-induced strengthening and weakening of Hadley cell induces significant impact over South Asian and African ITCZ convective regions through modification of ITCZ/monsoon circulation system.     

Towards sustainable agriculture in post-apartheid South Africa

This paper assesses the possibility of sustainable agriculture in South Africa in the context of recent policy initiatives. The new environmental strategy for agriculture represents a significant break with policy initiatives developed during apartheid. The likelihood of sustainable farming practices being adopted in South Africa will, however, face at least three obstacles. These are the integrated structure of industrial farming, the concern over yields, and current political and economic changes in South African agriculture. It is argued that sustainable techniques are unlikely to develop in the large scale farming sector in the near future. If the considerable research and extension resources of the state are reoriented quickly enough, sustainable farming methods can be embraced by an emerging class of black commercial farmers.     

Climate and desertification in Southern Africa

Short-term changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere, which may lead to prolonged periods of drought, are catalysts for producing accelerated desertification. In southern Africa the northeastward thrust of desertification from the western and central arid and semi-arid areas (the Karoo) has long been recognised, but up til 1970 research failed to demonstrate a clear-cut relationship between the process of desertification and long term rainfall data. The application of sophisticated analytical techniques to regional rainfall data showed, however, that spatial and temporal variations in the Southern African rainfall pattern have a striking degree of organization. The summer rainfall region of the northeastern part of the subcontinent experiences 16–20 year fluctuations, in contrast with 10–12 year fluctuations in the all-season rainfall region along the southern Cape coast. Concentrating on regionally averaged data for the summer rainfall region, the author used Fourier analysis to confirm the persistence of the quasi 20-year fluctuations since 1840. The wet spell of the late 1970s is expected to die out by 1982 and may be followed by a dry spell running from 1983 to 1992. Policy and management practices should be geared to prevent further desertification during this period.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S167498711400036X

Global warming and climate change is one of the most extensively researched and discussed topical issues affecting the environment.Although there are enough historical evidence to support the theory that climate change is a natural phenomenon,many research scientists are widely in agreement that the increase in temperature in the 20 th century is anthropologically related.The associated effects are the variability of rainfall and cyclonic patterns that are being observed globally.In Southeast Asia the link between global warming and the seasonal atmospheric flow during the monsoon seasons shows varying degree of fuzziness.This study investigates the impact of climate change on the seasonality of monsoon Asia and its effect on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia.The comparison of decadal variation of precipitation and temperature anomalies before the 1970 s found general increases which were mostly varying.But beyond the 1970 s,global precipitation anomalous showed increases that almost corresponded with increases in global temperature anomalies for the same period.There are frequent changes and a shift westward of the Indian summer monsoon.Although precipitation is observed to be 70%below normal levels,in some areas the topography affects the intensity of rainfall.These shifting phenomenon of other monsoon season in the region are impacting on the variability of rainfall and the onset of monsoons in Southeast Asia and is predicted to delay for 15 days the onset of the monsoon in the future.The variability of monsoon rainfall in the SEA region is observed to be decadal and the frequency and intensity of intermittent flooding of some areas during the monsoon season have serious consequences on the human,financial,infrastructure and food security of the region.     

Winter and summer monsoons and the navigation in East Asia in historical age

In order to make clear a problem in the human impact on the East Asian monsoons, navigation in the period from the 7th century to the 19th century was studied from the standpoint of historical climatology. 1. are described the periods of winter and summer monsoons over East Asia in relation to the division of the natural season. 2. based on the characteristics of the wind direction and velocity during the monsoons, it is shown that the winter monsoon is extremely unfavorable for navigation in contrast to the favorable summer monsoon. 3. statistical results on the possible frequency of navigation over the East China Sea by small boats are dealt with according to the meteorological records. 4. it is indicated that the navigations of the missions between Japan and China, Korea or Po Hai in the 7th – 9th centuries showed clear relations to the monsoon seasons. Lastly, the navigation mainly in 17th, 18th and 19th centuries around Ryukyu Islands, on the Chinese coast and the Japanese Islands are mentioned in detail. Even in this period the winter monsoon affected strongly on the navigation, that is, sailing and entries kept away the winter monsoon season almost completely.     

Abrupt resumption of the African Monsoon at the Younger Dryas—Holocene climatic transition

A high-resolution sedimentary record from Lake Masoko (Tanzania), based on pollen assemblages and magnetic susceptibility, shows that the most prominent environmental change of the last 45 000 years occurred ca 11.7 cal. ka BP, near the end of the Younger Dryas event. During this climatic transition, the Masoko catchment vegetation changed from being intolerant to a long/severe dry season to being tolerant, while the inferred lake-dynamics indicates strengthened seasonal fluctuations and/or lower levels than before. Comparison of the Masoko record with other regional palaeoclimatic data shows that evidence of this climatic transition is widespread in tropical Africa. The proposed failure of the African Monsoon during the Younger Dryas, associated with a southward position/migration of the meteorological equator in East Africa, was followed by an abrupt and lasting resumption of monsoon activity, and more pronounced migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the African continent. Such a reorganisation of the atmospheric circulation, equally observed across the whole tropical region (South America, East and West Asia, and Africa), could have been a strong amplifier of northern high latitude changes in temperature and precipitation across this major climatic transition.     

一个耦合气候系统模式模拟的中全新世时期亚洲季风系统变化

本文分析了一个耦合模式FGOALS_g1.0对工业革命前气候(0ka)和中全新世时期(6ka)亚洲夏季风的模拟结果。在该研究中我们主要分析季风降水变率较大的区域,即东亚夏季风区(20°～45°N,110°～120°E)和印度夏季风区(10°～30°N,70°～80°E)。尽管耦合模式的普遍偏差依然存在,该模式反映出亚洲季风系统是海陆热力性质差异的结果,并较好地模拟出了0ka亚洲夏季风大尺度环流的特点和季节变化的特征。6ka和0ka比较分析的结果表明,6ka时期欧亚大陆增暖,海陆温度梯度加强; 印度夏季风降水从南亚大陆北移到 30°N 附近,位于青藏高原南侧的降水大值中心降水加强; 东亚季风区降水则表现为华北地区减少,长江流域和华南地区降水增加的特点。但合理地模拟季风爆发仍然是耦合气候系统模式的难点之一。
6ka时期亚洲夏季风变化是和大尺度季风环流的变化联系在一起的,而其根本原因是中全新世时期地球轨道参数变化所引起的太阳辐射变化,北半球季节循环的振幅加强。海陆热力性质的差异所导致海陆温差加大使得北半球的季风环流加强,印度夏季风高空东风在 20°～30°N 加强,低层赤道东风加强,跨赤道后的西南气流向北推移,从而使得印度夏季风降水雨带北移到 30°N 附近。东亚季风区的高低空温度场的配置使得副热带高空急流减弱,位置偏南,从而有利于华北地区的高空出现异常的辐合,中层为异常的辐散,抑制了季风降水的发展; 长江流域和华南地区则相反,季风降水降水加强。     

A spatio-temporal analysis of fires in the Southern African Development Community region

Wildfires are considered one of the most common disasters in southern Africa resulting in a high number of human fatalities and financial loss on an annual basis. It is believed that increased population growth, as well as more concentrated settlement planning, is likely to result in increased fire disasters and increased human fatalities as a direct result of wildfires. To better understand the spatial and temporal variations and characteristics of wildfires in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), an 11-year dataset of satellite-derived Active Fire Hotspots was analysed using an open source geographic information system. Results indicate that annual fire frequency for most SADC countries is highly variable. Increasing trends in annual fire frequency were observed in five out of 13 SADC countries with a decrease in annual fire frequency observed in four countries. An additional four countries displayed a somewhat stable trend in fire frequency. Temporally, fires have been observed in all months for the SADC region although distinct fire seasons were observed, largely driven by uni-modal rainfall seasons. The timing, location and strength of rainfall seasons have a marked influence on fire activity depending on the seasonal wet and dry (growing and desiccation) periods. Fire activity in vegetation eco-regions can be attributed to both natural and anthropogenic sources of ignition. However, increased anthropogenic agroforestry activities have resulted in increased fire activity in numerous SADC eco-regions with woodlands, savannahs and montane grassland eco-regions being most prone to wildfires.     

The extent and significance of mass-movements in Eastern Africa: case studies of some major landslides in Uganda and Kenya

The East African region has experienced major landslides in recent years. These landslides have caused many fatalities and injuries, loss of many hectares of productive farmlands and destruction to infrastructure such as roads, railways and bridges. The warm and wet climate of the landslide-prone regions causes rapid weathering and produces a regolith weaker than the underlying rock with an interface between the two layers. This interface serves as the most common plane along which landslides are initiated once it becomes saturated. Landslides in the region are associated with steep topography, human activities such as deforestation, overgrazing, and unplanned farming on steep slopes and are induced by earthquakes and high intensity of rainfall. The landslide-prone areas are agriculturally very productive and the inhabitants depend on agriculture for their livelihood. The areas also contribute substantially to the national food reserve. The landslides are therefore a burden to the economies of the individual farmers and national governments of the region.     

气候地层法在我国第四系分层中的运用问题-兼论第四纪气候干湿变化与冰期的关系

我国第四纪气候干湿交替的现象,虽曾为一些学者所注意,但由于我国第四纪地层开始形成时,现代东亚季风气候即已建立,气候干湿交替一般来说在地层中反映得不如冰期时受西风气旋带影响地区那样明显。所以,在很长一段时期内,未能采用以气候干湿变化为基础的气候地层方法。至1959年,刘东生先生在总结黄土地层划分经验之后,才明确提出采用雨期和间雨期划分北方第四系的意见。     

Mesozoic and Cenozoic reconstructions of the South Atlantic

The movement of Antarctica with respect to South America has a number of implications for paleocirculation as well as for the reconstructions of Gondwanaland. Recent papers on the Southwest Indian Ridge have published new or revised poles of opening for Africa and Antarctica which can be combined with the poles of opening between South America and Africa to give resultant motions between South America and Antarctica.The first indication of a complete closure between South America and the Antarctic Peninsula is at anomaly 28 time (64 Ma) as the two continents are now configured. Between anomaly 28 time (64 Ma) and anomaly M0 time (119 Ma) the amount of closure does not change greatly, and the small computed overlap can be explained by minor uncertainties in the rotation poles used for the reconstructions or some slight extension between East and West Antarctica. By 135 Ma some rotation or translation of the Antarctic Peninsula with respect to East Antarctica must be postulated in addition to any presumed extension between East and West Antarctica in order to avoid an overlap of South America with the Antarctic Peninsula.Having determined what we feel to be a viable reconstruction of Western Gondwanaland and holding South America fixed, we rotated Africa and Antarctica, with respect to South America, for eight different times during the past. Africa moved away from South America in a more or less consistent manner throughout the time period, closure to present, while Antarctica moved away from Africa in a consistent manner only between 160 Ma and 64 Ma. At 64 Ma its motion changed abruptly: it slowed its north-south motion with respect to Africa and began slow east-west extension with respect to South America. This change supports the hypothesis that a major reorganization of the triple junction between Africa, Antarctica and South America occurred between 60 and 65 Ma. The triple junction changed from ridge-ridge-ridge to ridge-fault-fault at the time of the major westward jump of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge just south of the Falkland-Agulhas Fracture Zone.The Mesozoic opening of the Somali Basin moved Madagascar from its presumed original position with Africa in Gondwanaland. The closure of Sri Lanka with India produces a unique fit for India and Sri Lanka with respect to Africa, Madagascar and Antarctica. This fit juxtaposes geological localities in Southeast India against similar localities in Enderhy Land. East Antarctica. The late Jurassic opening in the Somali Basin is tied to opening of the same age in the Mozambique Basin. Since this late Jurassic movement represents the initial break-up of Gondwanaland, it is assumed that similar movement must have occurred in what is now the western Weddell Sea and may also explain the opening evidenced by the Rocas Verdes region of southern South America.     

LGM时期气候背景下中国区域植被变化对东亚夏季降水影响的模拟

利用CCM3/NCAR全球气候模式在21kaB.P.(2.1万年前)的末次盛冰期(LGM)气候背景下,对中国区域植被变化对夏季(6～7月)东亚季风降水的影响进行了模拟,结果表明： 在LGM时期气候背景下,植被退化会使得中国东南部夏季降水减少,其中东南沿海减少超过20mm,而在 100°E 以东的中国北方大部分地区降水增加,其中心值大于50mm,从而导致降水南少北多的现象,植被的这种影响可以从物理上得到解释。在LGM气候背景下,植被退化在暖季起着增温的作用,即通过影响地表热状况使夏季大陆增温,增强了夏季东亚大陆与其周边海域的热力差异,从而使夏季东亚地区的西南风增强,35°～45°N的北方地区对流层低层的空气辐合和对流层上升运动加强,伴随着在 30°N 以南的中国南方地区出现异常下沉运动; 同时,西南季风的加强也导致夏季在 30°～40°N 之间的华北地区低层水汽输送加大。在这些因子的共同作用下,中国北方夏季降水增多,而东南部降水减少。这些结果说明使用LGM时期中国区域不同的重建植被资料可以对东亚季风气候模拟产生一定的不确定性。因此,重建可信度高的东亚植被对于降低对气候模拟的不确定性是十分重要的。     

A high-resolution geochemical record from Lake Edward,Uganda Congo and the timing and causes of tropical African drought during the late Holocene

High-resolution analyses of the elemental composition of calcite and biogenic silica (BSi) content in piston cores from Lake Edward, equatorial Africa, document complex interactions between climate variability and lacustrine geochemistry over the past 5400 years. Correlation of these records from Lake Edward to other climatically-forced geochemical and lake level records from Lakes Naivasha, Tanganyika, and Turkana allows us to develop a chronology of drought events in equatorial East Africa during the late Holocene. Major drought events of at least century-scale duration are recorded in lacustrine records at about 850, 1500, ∼2000, and 4100 cal year BP. Of these, the most severe event occurred between about 2050 and 1850 cal year BP, during which time Lake Edward stood about 15 m below its present level. Numerous additional droughts of less intensity and/or duration are present in the Lake Edward record, some of which may be correlated to other lacustrine climate records from equatorial East Africa. These events are superimposed on a long-term trend of increasingly arid conditions from 5400 to about 2000 cal year BP, followed by a shift toward wetter climates that may have resulted from an intensification of the winter Indian monsoon. Although the causes of decade- to century-scale climate variability in the East African tropics remain obscure, time-series spectral analysis suggests no direct linkage between solar output and regional rainfall. Rather, significant periods of ∼725, ∼125, 63–72, 31–25, and 19–16 years suggest a tight linkage between the Indian Ocean and African rainfall, and could result from coupled ocean-atmosphere variability inherent to the tropical monsoon system.     

Extreme weather and economic well-being in rural Mozambique

Societies dependent on rain-fed agriculture are highly vulnerable to weather extremes; thus, linkages between rainfall variability and economic well-being merit close attention. The hypothesis of this paper is that rainfall patterns impact changes in income within our study region of central and northern Mozambique. Utilizing satellite-based estimates of rainfall analyzed within a GIS, we establish a 12-year rainfall climatology and calculate monthly rainfall anomalies for 419 villages during three growing seasons. We also approximate storm-total rainfall from tropical cyclones entering the Mozambique Channel. Hierarchical cluster analysis groups the villages according to the monthly rainfall anomalies and rainfall received from Cyclones Delfina and Japhet. Then, using data from the National Agricultural Survey of Mozambique conducted in 2002 and 2005, we relate rainfall and change in income through the calculation of Pearson’s correlation coefficients and independent-samples t tests using village-groups produced by the cluster analysis. We find that no season closely approximates the 12-year climatology and that rainfall varied among the three seasons. Although most villages experience income declines, those affected by Delfina exhibit the worst economic performance, indicating that heavy rainfall from some tropical cyclones can have long-lasting negative effects on income. Additionally, receiving above-normal rainfall may hinder economic well-being more than below-normal rainfall. Our study identifies patterns in sub-national rainfall variability and economic well-being that enable a more detailed understanding of weather-related effects on socio-economic outcomes.     

Evaluation of present-day rainfall simulations over West Africa in CORDEX regional climate models

The objective of this study is to evaluate the ability of seven CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs), driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset to simulate the observed rainfall characteristics over West Africa during the period of 1990–2008. The seasonal climatology, annual rainfall cycles, interannual variability, 850 hPa specific humidity, and wind fields of the RCMs outputs were assessed over a number of spatial scales covering three climatically homogenous subregions (Guinea Coast, Savannah, and Sahel) and the entire West Africa domain. The ability of the RCMs to simulate the response to El Nino and La Nina events were further assessed. Results indicate that the RCMs captured the spatial pattern of rainfall and the three distinctive phases of the West African monsoon reasonably. It is worth noting that RCA and CRCM5 failed to distinctively reproduce the monsoon jump while CCLM, HIRHAM, and REMO largely overestimated the amount of the pre- and the post-monsoon rainfall. The analysis also showed significant biases in individual models depending on the subregion and season under consideration. These biases appear to be linked to the model’s failure to resolve convective processes and topography accurately. The majority of the RCMs used were consistent with the ground observation in capturing the dry (wet) conditions associated with the El Nino (La Nina) events. Statistical analysis conclusively revealed that the RCMs performance varies over the subregions and seasons, implying that no single model is best at all time. In general, REGCM3 was found to be the most outstanding of all the RCMs and is therefore recommended for use in rainfall assessment over West Africa.     

Recent hydrological behavior of the East African great lakes region inferred from GRACE,satellite altimetry and rainfall observations

We have jointly analysed space gravimetry data from the GRACE space mission, satellite altimetry data and precipitation over the East African Great Lakes region, in order to study the spatiotemporal variability of hydrological parameters (total water storage, lake water volume and rainfall). We find that terrestrial water storage (TWS) from GRACE and precipitation display a common mode of variability at interannual time scale, with a minimum in late 2005, followed by a rise in 2006–2007. We argue that this event is due to forcing by the strong 2006 Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on East African rainfall. We also show that GRACE TWS is linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle. Combination of the altimetry-based lake water volume with TWS from GRACE over the lakes drainage basins allows estimating soil moisture and groundwater volume variations. Comparison with the WGHM hydrological model outputs is performed and discussed.     

Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslide at Lanta Khola in north Sikkim,India

In the Indian Himalaya, a 15 km stretch of the North Sikkim Highway that is exceptionally susceptible to landsliding is characterized by fine-grained, low permeability debris material. Lanta Khola is one of the major debris slides in this stretch and is active every year during the monsoons. Although the relationship between rainfall and landsliding in the area is obvious, there is no previous study of precipitation thresholds for landslide initiation. Review of available rainfall and landslide activity data for the area between 1998 and 2006 suggests that sliding cannot be modeled by typical exponential relationships between cumulative rainfall (E) and rainfall duration (D). An alternative rainfall threshold has been proposed that predicts sliding if normalized cumulative rainfall for more than 15 days exceeds 250 mm. It is suggested that when this cumulative rainfall threshold is exceeded, the debris zone in the affected stretch becomes saturated and fails, causing landsliding.