首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Among the coastal districts of mega city Istanbul, Bakirkoy is one of the most critical one with the importance of air and marine transportation and presence of many other coastal facilities and structures that are prone to suffer from marine hazards. In the history, the Sea of Marmara has experienced numerous earthquake and landslide events and associated tsunamis. Therefore, tsunami risk assessment is essential for all coastal districts of Istanbul, including Bakirkoy district. In this study, a further developed methodology for tsunami human vulnerability and risk assessment Metropolitan Tsunami Human Vulnerability Assessment (MeTHuVA) is applied for Bakirkoy district of Istanbul, considering earthquake generated tsunamis. High-resolution tsunami hazard analysis is performed with the integration of coastal inundation computation with tsunami numerical tool NAMI DANCE and tsunami human vulnerability assessment with GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis methods (MCDA). Using analytical hierarchy process method of MCDA, a hierarchical structure is established, composed of two main elements of tsunami human vulnerability: Vulnerability at Location and Evacuation Resilience. Tsunami risk assessment for Bakirkoy district is calculated by integrating result of hazard and vulnerability assessments with a risk relation that includes a parameter (n), which represents the preparedness and awareness level of the community. Tsunami simulations revealed that the maximum inundation distance is over 350 m on land and water penetrates almost 1700 m along Ayamama stream. Inundation is observed in eleven neighborhoods of Bakirkoy district. In the inundation zone, maximum flow depth is found to be over 5.7 m. The inundated area forms 4.2% of whole Bakirkoy district, and 62 buildings are located in the inundation zone. Hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment results for different neighborhoods of Bakirkoy district are presented and discussed.  相似文献   

2.
Natural disasters can neither be predicted nor prevented. Urban areas with a high population density coupled with the construction of man-made structures are subjected to greater levels of risk to life and property in the event of natural hazards. One of the major and densely populated urban areas in the east coast of India is the city of Chennai (Madras), which was severely affected by the 2004 Tsunami, and mitigation efforts were severely dampened due to the non-availability of data on the vulnerability on the Chennai coast to tsunami hazard. Chennai is prone to coastal hazards and hence has hazard maps on its earth-quake prone areas, cyclone prone areas and flood prone areas but no information on areas vulnerable to tsunamis. Hence, mapping has to be done of the areas where the tsunami of December 2004 had directly hit and flooded the coastal areas in Chennai in order to develop tsunami vulnerability map for coastal Chennai. The objective of this study is to develop a GIS-based tsunami vulnerability map for Chennai by using a numerical model of tsunami propagation together with documented observations and field measurements of the evidence left behind by the tsunami in December 2004. World-renowned and the second-longest tourist beach in the world “Marina” present in this region witnessed maximum death toll due to its flat topography, resulting in an inundation of about 300 m landward with high flow velocity of the order of 2 m/s.  相似文献   

3.
Quantification of building vulnerability to earthquake and tsunami hazards is a key component for the implementation of structural mitigation strategies fostering the essential shift from post-disaster crisis reaction to preventive measures. Facing accelerating urban sprawl and rapid structural change in modern urban agglomerations in areas of high seismic and tsunami risk, the synergetic use of remote sensing and civil engineering methods offers a great potential to assess building structures up-to-date and area-wide. This paper provides a new methodology contextualizing key components in quantifying building vulnerability with regard to sequenced effects of seismic and tsunami impact. The study was carried out in Cilacap, a coastal City in Central Java, Indonesia. Central is the identification of significant correlations between building characteristics, easily detectable by remote sensing techniques, and detailed in situ measurements stating precise building vulnerability information. As a result, potential vertical evacuation shelters in the study area are detected and a realistic vulnerability assessment of the exposed building stock is given. These findings obtained allow for prioritization of intervention measures such as awareness and preparedness strategies and can be implemented in local disaster management.  相似文献   

4.

Disaster preparedness plans reduce future damages, but may lack testing to assess their effectiveness in operation. This study used the state-designed Local Government Unit Disaster Preparedness Journal: Checklist of Minimum Actions for Mayors in assessing the readiness to natural hazards of 92 profiled municipalities in central Philippines inhabited by 2.4 million people. Anchored on the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015, it assessed their preparedness in 4 criteria—systems and structures, policies and plans, building competencies, and equipment and supplies. Data were analyzed using statistical package for social sciences, frequency count, percentage, and weighted mean. The local governments were found highly vulnerable to tropical cyclone and flood while vulnerable to earthquake, drought, and landslide. They were partially prepared regardless of profile, but the coastal, middle-earning, most populated, having the least number of villages, and middle-sized had higher levels of preparedness. Those highly vulnerable to earthquake and forest fire were prepared, yet only partially prepared to flood, storm surge, drought, tropical cyclone, tornado, tsunami and landslide. The diverse attitude of stakeholders, insufficient manpower, and poor database management were the major problems encountered in executing countermeasures. Appointing full-time disaster managers, developing a disaster information management system, massive information drive, organizing village-based volunteers, integrating disaster management into formal education, and mandatory trainings for officials, preparing for a possible major volcanic eruption and crafting a comprehensive plan against emerging emergencies like the COVID-19 pandemic may lead to a 360° preparedness.

  相似文献   

5.
Both seismic and tsunami hazards design criteria are essential input to the rehabilitation and long-term development of city of Banda Aceh Post Sumatra 2004 (M w=9.3) disaster. A case study to develop design criteria for future disaster mitigation of the area is presented. The pilot study consists of probabilistic seismic and tsunami hazard analysis. Results of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis indicates that peak ground acceleration at baserock for 10 and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years is 0.3 and 0.55 g, respectively. The analysis also provides spectral values at short (T=0.2 s) and long period (T=1.0 s) motions. Some non-linear time-domain earthquake response analyses for soft, medium, and hard site-class were conducted to recommend design response spectra for each site-class. In addition, tsunami inundation maps generated from probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis were developed through tsunami wave propagation analysis and run-up numerical modeling associated with its probability of tsunamigenic earthquake source potential. Both the seismic and tsunami hazard curve and design criteria are recommended as contribution of this study for design criteria, as part of the disaster mitigation effort in the development process of the city. The methodology developed herein could be applied to other seismic and tsunami disaster potential areas.  相似文献   

6.
A general approach for the estimation of tsunami height and hazard in the vicinity of active volcanoes has been developed. An empirical relationship has been developed to estimate the height of the tsunami generated for an eruption of a given size. This relationship can be used to estimate the tsunami hazard based on the frequency of eruptive activity of a particular volcano. This technique is then applied to the estimation of tsunami hazard from the eruption of the Augustine volcano in Alaska. Modification of this approach to account for a less than satisfactory data base and differing volcanic characteristics is also discussed with the case of the Augustine volcano as an example. This approach can be used elsewhere with only slight modifications and, for the first time, provides a technique to estimate tsunami hazard from volcanic activity, similar to a well-established approach for the estimation of tsunami hazard from earthquake activity.  相似文献   

7.
Indonesia is located in the Pacific Ring of Fire and situated at the joining point of four major world tectonic plates. Regions of Indonesia are highly prone to various natural hazards such as earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions. Some recent major natural hazard events are the 2004 tsunami in Aceh and Nias and the 2010 Mount Merapi volcanic eruptions in Central Java. In parallel with advancement in knowledge of the existing hazards, the importance of social aspects of vulnerability in mitigating natural hazards has been acknowledged by the Indonesian government. However, to date, there is no institutionalized effort for assessing social vulnerability to natural hazards that would cover all the districts of Indonesia. Accordingly, no comprehensive profile of social vulnerability is available as basis information for developing strategies to prevent larger risk and losses and reduce vulnerability of communities in Indonesia. Only a few studies have been conducted in Indonesia on this field. This study attempts to fill this gap by quantifying the social vulnerability of Indonesian districts to natural hazards, determining its driving factors and mapping its variations. The social vulnerability index (SoVI) approach is utilized in this study. Three main driving factors affecting social vulnerability in Indonesia are found: ‘socioeconomic status and infrastructure,’ ‘gender, age and population growth’ and ‘family structure.’ The combination of SoVI with thematic map utilizing ArcView GIS can be used to identify districts with relative high social vulnerability level. The results can support the prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery programs of the impacts of natural hazards in Indonesia.  相似文献   

8.
火山灾害与监测   总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6       下载免费PDF全文
世界各地几乎都有火山分布,平均每年约有50次喷发。火山喷发在给人类创造财富的同时也带来许多灾害。火山灾害取决于火山喷发的类型、性质、规模和所处的地点等因素。火山喷发动力作用引起冲击波、地震、海啸、滑坡、泥石流等灾害,火山喷出的气体、灰烬、碎屑流和熔岩流等也会造成很大灾害。由于火山造成的灾害严重又来得突然,因此必须采取有效的防范措施,认真监测以掌握火山活动的脉搏。火山监测工作主要有两方面,一是基础地质调查,二是火山活动指标的监视和测量。在中国,具有潜在危险的火山主要分布在长白山、五大连池、台湾、雷琼、腾冲以及西昆仑阿什库勒等地,其中潜在危险最大的是长白山火山。  相似文献   

9.
Subaqueous landslides can induce potentially damaging tsunamis. Tsunamis are not restricted to the marine environment, but have also been documented on lakes in Switzerland and worldwide. For Lake Zurich (central Switzerland), previous work documented multiple, assumedly earthquake-triggered landslides. However, no information about past tsunamis is available for Lake Zurich. In a back-analysis, we model tsunami scenarios as a consequence of the earthquake-triggered landslides in the past. Furthermore, on the basis of a recent map of the earthquake-triggered subaqueous landslide hazard, we present results of a tsunami hazard assessment. The subaqueous landslide progression, wave propagation and inundation are calculated with a combination of open source codes. Although no historic evidence of past tsunamis has been documented for Lake Zurich, a tsunami hazard exists. However, only earthquakes with long return periods are assumed to cause considerable tsunamis. An earthquake with an exceedance probability of 0.5% in 50 years (corresponding to an earthquake with a return period of 9975 years) is assumed to cause tsunamigenic landslides on most lateral slopes of Lake Zurich. A hypothetical tsunami for such an event would create damage especially along the shores of the central basin of Lake Zurich with estimated peak flow depths of up to ~?4.6 m. Our results suggest that for an earthquake with an exceedance probability of 10% in 50 years (i.e., mean return period of 475 years), no considerable tsunami hazard is estimated. Even for a worst-case scenario, the cities of Zurich and Rapperswil, located at the northern and southern ends of the lake, respectively, are assumed to experience very little damage. The presented first-order results of estimated wave heights and inundated zones provide valuable information on tsunami-prone areas that can be used for further investigations and mitigation measures.  相似文献   

10.
This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand.  相似文献   

11.
Many scientists have recently alarmed natural hazards due to global climate change. Such natural disasters are coastal inundation in response to sea-level rise, and/or river flooding caused by heavy rain falls, additionally earthquakes and, etc. In terms of natural hazards, one of the most sensitive and culturally significant areas in Turkey is the Hatay province in the east Mediterranean region. The Hatay province is located on such a region which is not only vulnerable to coastal inundation and river flooding, but also is a tectonically and seismically sensitive area. In this study, for taking conservation measures against the natural hazards beforehand and decision-making on any future land-planning; a digital terrain model and a 3D fly-through model of the Hatay province were generated; then quantitatively and/or qualitatively interpreted by employing the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission digital elevation model. Besides, stream drainage patterns, lineaments and structural–geological features were extracted for natural hazard risk interpretation of settlements and their relationships among the landscape characteristics were exhibited by combining tectonic information previously confirmed. Regarding the sea-level rise, the coastal inundation risk map indicates that the most vulnerable areas are: coastlines of Iskenderun, Arsuz, Payas and Samandag, respectively. By/after analyzing the digital terrain of the study region and stream drainage patterns, the Karasu Valley Zone, where the Amik plain, settlements of Antakya, Iskenderun, Arsuz, Payas and Samandag with their flood plains have the most flooding risk in decreasing order, respectively when a heavy raining occurs. Finally, analysis of tectonics has revealed that Antakya, Iskenderun, Hassa, Kirikhan, Samandag, Payas, Arsuz, Altinozu, Kumlu and Hacipasa regions have the most sensitivity to earthquake disaster in the study region.  相似文献   

12.
Inundation caused by landslide dams may occur in the upstream and downstream of the dams. A proper flooding hazard assessment is required for reaction planning and decision-making to mitigate possible flooding hazards caused by landslide dams. Both quick and detailed procedures can be used to evaluate inundation hazards, depending on the available time and information. This paper presents a systematic approach for the assessment of inundation hazards and risks caused by landslide dam formation and breaches. The approach includes the evaluation of dam-breach probability, assessment of upstream inundation hazard, assessment of downstream inundation hazard, and the classification of flooding risk. The proposed assessment of upstream inundation estimates the potential region of inundation and predicts the overtopping time. The risk level of downstream flooding is evaluated using a joint consideration of the breach probability of a landslide dam and the level of flooding hazard, which is classified using a flooding hazard index that indicates the risk of potential inundation. This paper proposes both quick and detailed procedures for the assessments of inundation in both the upstream and downstream of a landslide dam. An example of a landslide dam case study in southern Taiwan was used to demonstrate the applicability of the systematic approach.  相似文献   

13.
Bangladesh is one of the most natural hazard-prone countries in the world with the greatest negative consequences being associated with cyclones, devastating floods, riverbank erosion, drought, earthquake, and arsenic contamination, etc. One way or other, these natural hazards engulfed every corner of Bangladesh. The main aim of this research paper is to carry out a multi-hazards risk and vulnerability assessment for the coastal Matlab municipality in Bangladesh and to recommend possible mitigation measures. To this aim, hazards are prioritized by integrating SMUG and FEMA models, and a participation process is implemented so as to involve community both in the risk assessment and in the identification of adaptation strategies. The Matlab municipality is highly vulnerable to several natural hazards such as cyclones, floods, and riverbank erosion. The SMUG is a qualitative assessment, while FEMA is a quantitative assessment of hazards. The FEMA model suggests a threshold of highest 100 points. All hazards that total more than 100 points may receive higher priority in emergency preparedness and mitigation measures. The FEMA model, because it judges each hazard individually in a numerical manner, may provide more satisfying results than the SMUG system. The spatial distributions of hazard, risk, social institutions, land use, and other resources indicate that the flood disaster is the top environmental problem of Matlab municipality. Hazard-specific probable mitigation measures are recommended with the discussion of local community. Finally, this study tries to provide insights into the way field research combining scientific assessments tools such as SMUG and FEMA could feed evidence-based decision-making processes for mitigation in vulnerable communities.  相似文献   

14.
Little Andaman, the fourth largest island in the Andaman group of islands of India, was severely affected by the December 26, 2004, Indian Ocean tsunami generated by massive earthquake of moment magnitude 9.3 Mw which devastated the Andaman and Nicobar group of islands causing heavy damage to life and property. Due to hostile terrain conditions not much information was available on the extent of inundation and run-up along the island except for Hut Bay region. In order to study the vulnerability of the island to tsunami hazard, the inundation in the island due to the 2004 tsunami was studied using TUNAMI N2 numerical model and ENVISAT ASAR datasets. The extent of inundation derived from the SAR imagery was compared using the RTK-GPS field survey points collected in the Hut Bay regions immediately after the 2004 tsunami. The extent of inundation obtained from SAR images for the entire island was compared with inundation obtained from model. It was observed that the inundation obtained from the model matched well with inundation extent from SAR imagery for nearshore regions, while for low-lying areas and creeks large deviations were observed. In the absence of field datasets, the inundation derived from SAR imagery would be effective in providing ground data to validate the numerical models which can then be run for multiple scenarios for disaster mitigation and planning operation in areas that have hostile terrain conditions.  相似文献   

15.
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) can be used to evaluate and quantify tsunami hazards for planning of integrated community-level preparedness, including mitigation of casualties and dollar losses, and to study resilient solutions for coastal communities. PTHA can provide several outputs such as the intensity measures (IMs) of the hazard quantified as a function of the recurrence interval of a tsunami event. In this paper, PTHA is developed using a logic tree approach based on numerical modeling for tsunami generated along the Cascadia Subduction Zone. The PTHA is applied to a community on the US Pacific Northwest Coast located in Newport, Oregon. Results of the PTHA are provided for five IMs: inundation depth, flow speed, specific momentum flux, arrival time, and duration of inundation. The first three IMs are predictors of tsunami impact on the natural and built environment, and the last two are useful for tsunami evacuation and immediate response planning. Results for the five IMs are presented as annual exceedance probability for sites within the community along several transects with varying bathymetric and topographic features. Community-level characteristics of spatial distribution of each IM for three recurrence intervals (500, 1000, 2500 year) are provided. Results highlight the different pattern of IMs between land and river transects, and significant magnitude variation of IMs due to complex bathymetry and topographic conditions at the various recurrence intervals. IMs show relatively higher magnitudes near the coastline, at the low elevation regions, and at the harbor channel. In addition, results indicate a positive correlation between inundation depth and other IMs near the coastline, but a weaker correlation at inland locations. Values of the Froude number ranged 0.1–1.0 over the inland inundation area. In general, the results in this study highlight the spatial differences in IMs and suggest the need to include multiple IMs for resilience planning for a coastal community subjected to tsunami hazards.  相似文献   

16.
我国南方山地丘陵区地质灾害分布数量约占全国地质灾害总数的57%,复杂的孕灾地质背景条件和诱发因素在很大程度上制约了地方政府对地质灾害的早期识别及监测预警能力,从而对各地国家基础设施和人民生命财产安全以及重大战略工程的实施造成影响,因此,提升对南方山地丘陵区地质灾害发育分布规律的认识和防治水平就显得极为重要和迫切。为满足服务国家重大战略实施的防灾减灾需求,中国地质调查局部署了“南方山地丘陵区地质灾害调查工程”,以支撑服务国家和地方防灾减灾需求为导向,以“出技术、出方法、出规范”为目标,采用“空-天-地”一体化调查技术,重点围绕地质灾害的早期识别、监测预警、风险评价及防灾减灾方法等开展调查研究与应用示范,引领和指导南方山地丘陵区的地质灾害调查。该工程通过2019年的调查研究,对南方山地丘陵区地质灾害发育的总体分布规律、危害程度及成因机制有了宏观认识,为区域地质灾害研究与评价提供了重要基础。取得的地质灾害调查成果为国家一系列重大战略工程的规划建设提供了有效服务。如在川藏铁路建设工程中,为某车站选址提供了地质综合评估建议,成功识别出的潜在滑坡隐患为某特大桥梁设计方案变更提供了重要的地质依据; 服务于乌蒙山区及赣州地区地质灾害自动化监测预警系统建设,有效提升了地方政府防灾减灾的效率与水平; 及时配合自然资源部金沙江白格滑坡、宜宾地震、浙江永嘉滑坡等重大突发性地质灾害的应急抢险工作,并提供了有效的技术支持; 在汛期为四川省和云南省等地方政府开展地质灾害应急排查20余次,为这些地区的安全度汛发挥了重要作用; 积极开展多种形式的地质灾害科学普及活动,提高了广大民众的地质灾害防治知识水平。  相似文献   

17.
广东沿海陆地地质灾害区划   总被引:6,自引:2,他引:6  
研究中使用了主要地质灾害(地震、崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、地面沉降、地面塌陷、地基下沉、地裂缝、水土流失、港口淤积等)大量的野外调查和文献资料的实际数据,根据综合分析并运用“灾害密度”和“灾害强度”2种指标,将广东沿海陆地划分出9个地质灾害一级区及其所属的32个二级分区,其中包括10个重灾区、10个中灾区和12个弱灾区。首次编制了基于数据库和GIS的1:50万广东沿海陆地主要地质灾害类型与区划图,为地质灾害发育规律的理论研究和国民经济建设的实际应用提供了基础信息和实际数据。分区的结果揭示了地质灾害空间分布特征及其与地质环境和人类活动的关系。  相似文献   

18.
长白山火山灾害及其对大型工程建设的影响   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
刘松雪  刘祥 《世界地质》2005,24(3):289-292
长白山火山是世界著名的活火山,历史时期有过多次喷发,有再次爆发的危险.长白山火山最大的一次爆发发生在公元1199-1200年,这次大爆发的火山灰最远到达距其1 000km远的日本北部.依据这次大爆发由火山喷发空中降落堆积物、火山碎屑流和火山泥流造成的巨大火山灾害,预测了长白山火山未来爆发火山灾害的类型、强度和范围,并编制了长白山火山未来爆发火山喷发空中降落堆积物灾害预测图、火山碎屑流灾害预测图和火山泥流灾害预测图.该研究可预防和减轻火山灾害,指导核电站等大型工程选址.  相似文献   

19.
De Lange  W. P.  Healy  T. R. 《Natural Hazards》2001,24(3):267-284
The Hauraki Gulf is a semi-enclosed sea next to the largest population centre in New Zealand, the Auckland metropolitan region. The potential tsunami hazard is of concern to regional and local planners around the Hauraki Gulf. The Hauraki Gulf has recorded 11 tsunamis and one meteorological tsunami (rissaga) since 1840.The historical tsunami data are relatively sparse, particularly for the largest events in 1868 and 1883. Moreover, local sources may produce damaging tsunamis but none has occurred during recorded history. Therefore numerical modelling of potential tsunami events provides a powerful tool to obtain data for planning purposes. Three main scenarios have been identified for numerical modelling:1. A teletsunami event from an earthquake off the West Coast of South America. Historically this region has produced the largest teletsunamis in the Hauraki Gulf.2. A tsunami generated by a local earthquake along the Kerepehi Fault. This fault bisects the Gulf, has been active during the last century at the southern inland end, and is overlain by a considerable thickness of soft sediment that may amplify the seismic waves.3. A tsunami generated by a volcanic eruption within the Auckland Volcanic Field. This field has involved a series of mainly monogenetic basaltic eruptions over the last 140,000 years. Many of these eruptions have involved phreatomagmatic eruptions around the coastal margins, or within the shallow waters close to Auckland.  相似文献   

20.
Most tsunamis are generated by earthquakes, with secondary, less frequent, mechanisms including subaerial and submarine landslides, volcanic eruptions and (extra‐terrestrial) bolide impacts. Different mechanisms generate tsunamis with different magnitudes, travel distances and impacts. Submarine landslides had been mapped and studied for decades but records suggested that only a few had generated tsunamis, and that these were minor. It was not until 1998, when a slump on the seabed offshore of northern Papua New Guinea caused a tsunami wave up to 15 m high that killed over 2200 people, was the significance of submarine landslides in tsunami generation realised. A combination of new (multibeam) seabed mapping technology and the development of improved numerical tsunami models for tsunami generation led to the recognition of the landslide tsunami mechanism of the PNG event. As a result the hazard from submarine landslides in tsunami generation is now recognized and better understood. Extensive mapping of ocean margins reveals that submarine landslides are common. Although many of these probably generated tsunamis, few have been identified, so their hazard remains uncertain. This article describes how the hazard from submarine landslide tsunamis was first recognized, how submarine landslides generate tsunamis, why they were previously discounted as a major hazard, and their potential hazards. An important aspect of the recognition of the tsunami hazard from submarine landslides has been the significance of geology, which has contributed to a subject previously dominated by seismologists.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号