Study on Probability Distributions of Multi-Timescale Aerosol Optical Depth Using AERONET Data

The probability distribution analysis is per-formed for multi-timescale aerosol optical depth (AOD) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level 2.0 data.The maximum likelihood estimation is employed to determine the best-fit probability density function (PDF),and the statement that the fitting Weibull distribution will be light-tailed is proved true for these AOD samples.The best-fit PDF results for multi-site data show that the PDF of AOD samples with longer timescale in most sites tends to be stably represented by lognormal distribution,while Weibull distribution is a better fit for AOD samples with short timescales.The reason for this difference is ana-lyzed through tail characteristics of the two distributions,and an indicator for the selection between Weibull and lognormal distributions is suggested and validated.The result of this research is helpful for determining the most accurate AOD statistics for a given site and a given time-scale and for validating the retrieved AOD through its PDF.     

A conceptual framework for multi-regional climate change assessments for international market systems with long-term investments

A conceptual framework for climate change assessments of international market systems that involve long-term investments is proposed. The framework is a hybrid of dynamic and static modeling. Dynamic modeling is used for those system components for which temporally continuous modeling is possible, while fixed time slices are used for other system components where it can be assumed that underlying assumptions are held constant within the time slices but allowed to vary between slices. An important component of the framework is the assessment of the “metauncertainty” arising from the structural uncertainties of a linked sequence of climate, production, trade and decision-making models. The impetus for proposing the framework is the paucity of industry-wide assessments for market systems with multiple production regions and long-term capital investments that are vulnerable to climate variations and change, especially climate extremes. The proposed framework is pragmatic, eschewing the ideal for the tractable. Even so, numerous implementation challenges are expected, which are illustrated using an example industry. The conceptual framework is offered as a starting point for further discussions of strategies and approaches for climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments for international market systems.     

气象探空测风软件系统的标准化研究

高空气象观测是气象业务的基础,是天气预报、气候分析、科学研究和国际交换的气象情报和资料的主要来源。气象探空测风软件是高空气象站探空测风综合探测系统的重要组成部分,它包括了一系列严密的处理方法,同时又融汇了日益发展的计算机处理技术,其规范化、标准化程度直接影响着新一代探空系统效益的发挥。该文介绍了高空气象台站探空测风标准化软件系统的设计思路,重点在软件需求、系统结构、实现技术等方面进行阐述,旨在设计出适合于各种高空探测系统,方便实用的“标准化”探空测风软件,为进一步的软件开发工作奠定坚实的基础。     

生态系统在全球变化中的调节作用

讨论在全球变化的背景下,生态系统对全球变化的调节作用.首先论述陆地生态系统对全球变化的调节作用,主要包括陆地生态系统对大气成分的调节以及对全球气候的调节;其次,论述水生生态系统对全球变化的调节作用,主要包括淡水生态系统对全球变化的调节作用以及海洋生态系统对全球变化的调节作用;最后,论述湿地生态系统对全球变化的调节作用,主要包括湿地生态系统对生物多样性保护的功能,湿地对全球变化的元素调节作用以及湿地对气候和水文的调节.       

大气中孤立波的相互作用

本文讨论无限深上层流体和有限深下层流体的两层流体系统，该系统是大气的一种近似模型。采用拉格朗日坐标系，从无粘不可压流体力学方程式出发，利用摄动方法获得了所讨论系统中界面孤立波迎撞的摄动解。结果表明，在迎撞前后每个波独立地由Benjamin-Ono方程所描述，即波的形状不发生变化，迎撞的效应由相移来体现。     

稻麦轮作农田近地层湍流通量计算方案对比研究

稻麦轮作农田是我国典型农田类型,其模拟效果对我国农田气候模拟具有重要参考价值。气候中尺度模拟结果对近地层通量极为敏感,选择合适的通量计算方案对模拟效果至关重要。因此,对比分析稻麦轮作农田下不同的通量计算方案具有重要意义。本文选取了8种具有代表性的近地层湍流通量计算方案,采用寿县国家气候观象台实测资料对比分析了各方案在稻麦轮作农田的计算特征和差异。结果表明,在不同稳定度和不同风速情况下,各方案的误差特征各异。本文基于归一化标准差综合评价了各方案的准确度,总体而言,所有方案的动量通量总体平均归一化平均差为0.536,其中SS14(Sharan和Srivastava,2014年)方案最大为0.575,SS20(Sharan和Srivastava等,2020年)方案最小为0.517;所有方案的感热通量总体平均归一化标准差为0.638,其中GLGS20(Gryanik等,2020年)方案最大为0.871,SS14方案最小为0.476。此外,本研究还给出了稻麦轮作农田不同稳定层结和不同风速情况下各通量计算方案的误差特征。本文的研究结论,可为准确计算近地层湍流通量提供支撑。     

Prediction of inversion strengths and heights from A 1-D nocturnal boundary layer model

A 1-D numerical model for the nocturnal boundary layer is developed which is capable of predicting inversion heights and strengths successfully. The model uses two distinct length scales for the dissipation of turbulent energy and for transfer of heat and momentum within the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). The wind and potential temperature profiles obtained from the present model are compared with observations and the agreement is found to be good, viz., the RMSE for inversion height is found to be 71 m and that for inversion strength is found to be 2.0 °C.     

黄河“96.8”致洪暴雨过程和数值模式预报分析

黄河“96.8”洪水是一次重要的强降水过程引起的。黄河流域地形复杂 ,而且降水时间分布极不均匀 ,预报难度较大。应用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室 REM模式 (简称 LASGREM)对这次洪水暴雨过程进行了模拟预报。同时应用 L ASGREM的输出产品对该过程进行了分析。结果表明 ,该模式对黄河“96.8”致洪暴雨的模拟预报能力较强 ,适合于黄河水文气象业务预报。     

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Water Supply and Flood Hazard in Ireland Using Statistical Downscaling and Hydrological Modelling Techniques

Estimates are made of changes in effective runoff at a high spatial resolution for the island of Ireland under different climate change scenarios. The first part of the investigation examines changes in annual and seasonal effective runoff for the whole land area of Ireland. The rainfall-runoff model HYSIM is used to carry out the hydrological simulations. The output from the HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) is downscaled using statistical techniques to provide precipitation and evaporation data at a 10 km × 10 km resolution; this data is then used to drive the HYSIM model. Simulations are carried out for each of the 825 10 km × 10 km grid cells covering Ireland for the baseline period (1961–1990) and two future scenarios; 2041–2070 and 2061–2090. Parameter values are derived for each square using data from the Soil Survey of Ireland and the CORINE land use database and validation is carried out for selected catchments. The results of these simulations indicate a decrease in annual runoff that is most marked in the east and southeast of the country, whereas an increase is likely for the extreme northwest. The reduction in effective runoff for the east of the country is particularly marked during the summer months. It is these areas that have highest population density and also where greatest population growth is likely to occur. During the winter months an increase in effective runoff is suggested for the western half of country which could have implications for flood frequency, as well as the extent and duration of winter flooding.     

Snow water changes with elevation over the Western United States in IPCC AR4 models

This work analyzes variations of snow water with elevation for a group of AR4 models over the Western United States. The results are expressed in terms of both snow water equivalent (SWE), which is the depth of snow if melted, and snow water volume (SWV), which is the total volume of SWE for a specified region. The decrease in total SWV over the study region between 1905 and 25 and 1980–99 is about 22%, which is in the range of the observed values. The results for both the A1b and B1 scenarios for the middle twenty-first century both show a near total loss of SWE at lower elevations. However, the largest losses for SWV are near 1800 m. Furthermore, the total SWV loss for the A1b scenario is about 63%, whereas that for the more moderate B1 scenario is about 49%. Thus, a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is likely to reduce the loss of snow, which is vital to society in the dry Western United States.     

高空大尺度涡度湍流输送的一些统计性质

应用1956年二月份的高空材料,作者研究了两层模式中各项湍流性涡动输送项的统计性质.根据北京、伊尔库次克、莫斯科、巴黎、奥斯陆等五个地点各不同时间问题中涡度湍流输送的大小和变化分析,可以初步确定:一般说来湍流项并不一定此平均输送项来得个多少,因此不一定可以略去.并且湍流项与平均项之间并没有线性关系等简单关系,因此对于简单地表示出来.由此看来,利用平均运动方程来作中、长期数值预报是不大方便的.     

温室气体排放空间使用比率及计算实例

度量不同参与者已使用的温室气体排放空间是温室气体排放核算的重要问题。从人际公平视角,基于人年均温室气体排放,本文提出了温室气体排放空间使用比率及其计算公式,利用142 个国家1950-2013 年温室气体排放和人口数据进行了具体计算,并根据计算结果对这些国家进行了排序和分类。计算结果表明,美国温室气体排放空间使用比率在3.33以上,占用的排放空间远高于142 个国家的平均水平;中国处于0.50~0.70,明显低于平均水平;印度在0.30 以下,远低于平均水平。本研究表明,温室气体排放空间使用比率可支持决策者和社会各方了解参与者使用温室气体排放空间的程度,也有助于提高排放信息的透明度。     

一种基于混合编程的NC文件WebService接口实现方法

提出一种基于C#和Matlab混合编程读取NC文件的接口实现方法。利用Matlab的NC工具箱函数库编写相应方法的M文件,将M文件编译成DLL类库,以C#为接口研发平台,调用DLL类库实现整体功能,以实例编写了具有NC文件获取单点时间序列和任意矩形裁剪方法的WebService接口,并通过网页调用,与传统的方法进行比较,验证了该方法的可行性。     

On the resistance law for the nonstationary atmospheric boundary layer

A resistance law for nonstationary conditions is suggested assuming similarity of the non-dimensional Reynold's stress. Equations of motion for the wind velocity deviations are used for the outer layer. In the wall layer, wall similarity is supposed as usual. Then a matching procedure is used for the derivation of the resistance law.     

Dependence of energy consumption on air temperature in Moscow

The dependence of energy consumption on air temperature for every day of the period from 1990 to 2015 is for the first time studied for mid-latitudes using the long-term observational data of the Moscow State University Meteorological Observatory. It is demonstrated that this dependence is generally descending in the Moscow region: energy consumption decreases as air temperature rises. At the same time, the energy consumption increase slows down due to energy saving in case of severe frosts, whereas the opposite trend is manifested in case of abnormally hot weather, that is, the energy consumption increase along with the air temperature rise due to additional consumption for air conditioning. The optimum temperature for energy saving is 18°C. The relationship between energy consumption and air humidity characteristics is analyzed. There is almost no link with relative humidity, while in the link with the partial pressure of water vapor, the dependence of the latter on air temperature is reflected indirectly.     

On the application of the Gaussian model for multiple industrial sources for selected centers in South India

Effective environmental planning is essential for any developing urban region. In the present article, the Gaussian model is applied for multiple industrial sources for the months of January, April, July and October, for the cities Hyderabad, Mangalore and Nagpur, to study the spatial distribution of sulphur dioxide concentration. The validity of the model is tested with the actual observations for two stations.     

我国主要水稻雄性不育系的光温特性研究

根据10个水稻雄性不育系的生育期及期间的温度和日长资料，研究了它们的光、温生态特性。用通径分析方法，分析了决定各不育系生育期变化的决策变量结果表明：晚籼及晚粳类型不育系的感光性强，中籼类型不育系的感光性弱到中等，早籼类型不育系的感光性一般都弱。10个雄性不育系中感温性弱的只占少数，感温性属弱到中强的品种占多数。除HS-3和SE21S的生育期决策变量为日长外，其他各不育系的决策变量均为温度。     

Detrended fluctuation analysis of daily temperature records: Geographic dependence over Australia

Summary Daily temperature anomaly records are analyzed (61 for Australia, 18 for Hungary) by means of detrended fluctuation analysis. Positive long range asymptotic correlations extending up to 5–10 years are detected for each case. Contrary to earlier claims, the correlation exponent is not universal for continental stations. Interestingly, the dominant factor is geographic latitude over Australia: the general tendency is a decrease of correlation exponent with increasing distance from the equator. This tendency is in a complete agreement with the results found by Tsonis et al (1999) for 500-hPa height anomalies in the northern hemisphere. The variance of fluctuations exhibits an opposite trend, the larger is the distance from the equator, the larger the amplitude of intrinsic fluctuations. The presence of Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation is clearly identified for three stations at the northeastern edge of the Australian continent.     

2002年主汛期国家气象中心主客观降水预报对比检验

主要就2002年主汛期(6—8月)对国家气象中心预报员和数值预报(HLAFS、HLAFS0．25、T106和T213)产品进行全国和分区统计学检验和对比分析评价。对于全国降水平均检验结果而言，主客观降水预报TS评分均随降水量级的增大和预报时效的增加而下降。对于各级降水，预报员评分最高，其次是T213，HLAFS0．25列第三位(大暴雨除外)，T213较T106、HLAFS0．25较HLAFS0．5的降水预报都有明显的提高，说明改进的数值预报系统的降水预报水平有了较大的提高。与2001年汛期比较，预报员的小雨预报进步明显，暴雨、大暴雨的24小时预报也有一定的提高；T213则在中雨预报上有所改进，大雨及暴雨的24小时预报也有提高，其余预报的TS评分不及2001年。从分区的检验结果来看，南方各区的预报评分远高于北方各区的评分，预报员在长江中下游和华南地区的各级降水预报中具有明显的预报优势；北方各区的降水评分以T213预报略好，HLAFS及HLAFS0．25在西北地区东部暴雨预报中表现出色。     

短期气候数值预报中的集合个数问题

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所IAP L2 AGCM1.1模式18年(1980～1997年,每年包含28个积分)的集合后报试验结果,讨论了数值预测中的最小集合个数问题.研究表明预测结果达到稳定所需的最小集合数随区域和年份而变化,对于我国汛期降水跨季度预测,最小集合数在全国范围为19～20个,对于东南区域为10个左右,东北、华北地区不应少于20个.当出现多平衡态时,最小集合数增大,这时应对各平衡态分别进行集合.研究结果同时还显示,对于有预报能力的地区,集合方法可以提高预测技巧及其可信度,而在负技巧区域,集台反使得预测效果更差,因而有必要进行系统性订正.