Assessing the strength of regional changes in near-surface climate associated with a global warming of 2°C

In this study, the strength of the regional changes in near-surface climate associated with a global warming of 2°C with respect to pre-industrial times is assessed, distinguishing between 26 different regions. Also, the strength of these regional climate changes is compared to the strength of the respective changes associated with a markedly stronger global warming of 4.5°C. The magnitude of the regional changes in climate is estimated by means of a normalized regional climate change index, which considers changes in the mean as well as changes in the interannual variability of both near-surface temperature and precipitation. The study is based on two sets of four ensemble simulations with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled climate model, each starting from different initial conditions. In one set of simulations (1860–2200), the greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol load have been prescribed according to observations until 2000 and according to the SRES A1B scenario after 2000. In the other set of simulations (2020–2200), the greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol load have been prescribed in such a way that the simulated global warming does not exceed 2°C with respect to pre-industrial times. The study reveals the strongest changes in near-surface climate in the same regions for both scenarios, i.e., the Sahara, Northern Australia, Southern Australia and Amazonia. The regions with the weakest changes in near-surface climate, on the other hand, vary somewhat between the two scenarios except for Western North America and Southern South America, where both scenarios show rather weak changes. The comparison between the magnitude of the regional changes in near-surface climate for the two scenarios reveals relatively strong changes in the 2°C-stabilization scenario at high northern latitudes, i.e., Northeastern Europe, Alaska and Greenland, and in Amazonia. Relatively weak regional climate changes in this scenario, on the other hand, are found for Eastern Asia, Central America, Central South America and Southern South America. The ratios between the regional changes in the near-surface climate for the two scenarios vary considerably between different regions. This illustrates a limitation of obtaining regional changes in near-surface climate associated with a particular scenario by means of scaling the regional changes obtained from a widely used “standard” scenario with the ratio of the changes in the global mean temperature projected by these two scenarios.     

Future projections of the surface heat and water budgets of the Mediterranean Sea in an ensemble of coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate models

Within the CIRCE project “Climate change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment”, an ensemble of high resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate models (AORCMs) are used to simulate the Mediterranean climate for the period 1950–2050. For the first time, realistic net surface air-sea fluxes are obtained. The sea surface temperature (SST) variability is consistent with the atmospheric forcing above it and oceanic constraints. The surface fluxes respond to external forcing under a warming climate and show an equivalent trend in all models. This study focuses on the present day and on the evolution of the heat and water budget over the Mediterranean Sea under the SRES-A1B scenario. On the contrary to previous studies, the net total heat budget is negative over the present period in all AORCMs and satisfies the heat closure budget controlled by a net positive heat gain at the strait of Gibraltar in the present climate. Under climate change scenario, some models predict a warming of the Mediterranean Sea from the ocean surface (positive net heat flux) in addition to the positive flux at the strait of Gibraltar for the 2021–2050 period. The shortwave and latent flux are increasing and the longwave and sensible fluxes are decreasing compared to the 1961–1990 period due to a reduction of the cloud cover and an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) and SSTs over the 2021–2050 period. The AORCMs provide a good estimates of the water budget with a drying of the region during the twenty-first century. For the ensemble mean, he decrease in precipitation and runoff is about 10 and 15% respectively and the increase in evaporation is much weaker, about 2% compared to the 1961–1990 period which confirm results obtained in recent studies. Despite a clear consistency in the trends and results between the models, this study also underlines important differences in the model set-ups, methodology and choices of some physical parameters inducing some difference in the various air-sea fluxes. An evaluation of the uncertainty sources and possible improvement for future generation of AORCMs highlights the importance of the parameterisation of the ocean albedo, rivers and cloud cover.     

Recent warming in a small region with semi-oceanic climate, 1949–1998: what is the ground truth?

Summary Trends of monthly air temperature extremes were investigated in five meteorological stations of the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg during the period 1949–1998. The application of an innovative homogenization method based on the concept of relative homogeneity to climatic time series allows identifying multiple break points, as well as correcting data series in an objective and robust statistical way. The rise of maximum temperature (Tmax) has occurred at a rate of 1.5 times that of the minimum temperature (Tmin) in winter (+1.4°C versus +0.9°C) and summer (+1.4°C versus +0.8°C). No trend in temperature extremes was found in autumn, while spring was affected by a small warming (+0.3°C) of Tmin and no change in Tmax resulting in a decrease of the diurnal temperature range (DTR) (–0.3°C). In spring, a strong positive linear relationship between Tmin warming and local terrain slope could be found. Comparison to new-gridded large-scale climatologies indicates generally close agreement to temperature trends during the 1949–1998 period, while a lower local warming was observed in summer during the post-1975 period following the changing-point year of atmospheric circulation over North-western Europe. This study shows that the question of data homogeneity is not trivial and should receive careful attention before quantifying historical temperature trends and identifying their spatial patterns at regional scale.     

Comment on “application of the Canadian regional climate model to the Laurentian Great Lakes region: Implementation of a lake model”

Abstract

A recently published slab model formulation of lake thermodynamics (Goyette et al., 2000), including an empirical factor to adjust the incoming heat flux so that the modelled lake surface temperature agrees with observed climatology, leads to a distinct lack of energy conservation. The empirical adjustment conceptually represents an exchange of heat between the mixed‐layer water (the slab that is explicitly simulated in the model) and deeper layers of water. It ensures a realistic temporal progression of temperature in the mixed layer, but the thermodynamic balance of the deeper water is not considered. When the deeper water is considered, it is found that the empirical adjustment accounts for the entire heat input to the deeper water, and on an annual mean basis, it is considerably unbalanced. This reveals a flaw in this model concept and, although not entirely invalidating the model, it needs to be included as a caveat in its use.     

Changes to the drivers of fire weather with a warming climate – a case study of southeast Tasmania

Projected changes to the global climate system have great implications for the incidence of large infrequent fires in many regions. Here we examine the synoptic-scale and local-scale influences on the incidence of extreme fire weather days and consider projections of the large-scale mean climate to explore future fire weather projections. We focus on a case study region with periodic extreme fire dangers; southeast Tasmania, Australia. We compare the performance of a dynamically downscaled regional climate model with Global Climate Model outputs as a tool for examining the local-scale influences while accounting for high regional variability. Many of the worst fires in Tasmania and the southeast Australian region are associated with deep cold fronts and strong prefrontal winds. The downscaled simulations reproduce this synoptic type with greater fidelity than a typical global climate model. The incidence of systems in this category is projected to increase through the century under a high emission scenario, driven mainly by an increase in the temperature of air masses, with little change in the strength of the systems. The regional climate model projected increase in frequency is smaller than for the global climate models used as input, with a large model range and natural variability. We also demonstrate how a blocking Foehn effect and topographic channelling contributed to the extreme conditions during an extreme fire weather day in Tasmania in January 2013. Effects such as these are likely to contribute to high fire danger throughout the century. Regional climate models are useful tools that enable various meteorological drivers of fire danger to be considered in projections of future fire danger.     

A scaling analysis of soil moisture–precipitation interactions in a regional climate model

The University of Oklahoma’s Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) was used to examine the impacts of varying mean soil moisture and model resolution on the magnitude and frequency of precipitation events in the U.S. Central Plains and to determine whether modeled soil moisture and precipitation fields exhibit scale invariance using the statistical moments. It was found that high soil moisture resulted in greater precipitation amounts and a higher frequency of events, suggesting the occurrence of a positive soil moisture–precipitation feedback. The scaling analysis performed on cumulative precipitation determined that these fields did not exhibit signs of self-similarity and, therefore, statistical properties cannot be predicted at other resolutions. The scaling properties of soil moisture were highly variable in time which has important implications for the use of remotely sensed data, as scaling properties from 1 day cannot necessarily be applied to subsequent days.     

Does increasing the spatial resolution of a regional climate model improve the simulated daily precipitation?

Three different resolution (50, 12, and 1.5 km) regional climate model simulations are compared in terms of their ability to simulate moderate and high daily precipitation events over the southern United Kingdom. The convection-permitting 1.5-km simulation is carried out without convective parametrisation. As in previous studies, increasing resolution (especially from 50 to 12 km) is found to improve the representation of orographic precipitation. The 50-km simulation underestimates mean precipitation over the mountainous region of Wales, and event intensity tends to be too weak; this bias is reduced in both the 12- and 1.5-km simulations for both summer and winter. In south–east England lowlands where summer extremes are mostly convective, increasing resolution does not necessary lead to an improvement in the simulation. For the 12-km simulation, simulated daily extreme events are overly intense. Even though the average intensity of summer daily extremes is improved in the 1.5-km simulation, this simulation has a poorer mean bias with too many events exceeding high thresholds. Spatial density and clustering of summer extremes in south–east England are poorly simulated in both the 12- and 1.5-km simulations. In general, we have not found any clear evidence to show that the 1.5-km simulation is superior to the 12-km simulation, or vice versa at the daily level.     

An atmosphere–ocean regional climate model for the Mediterranean area: assessment of a present climate simulation

We present an atmosphere–ocean regional climate model for the Mediterranean basin, called the PROTHEUS system, composed by the regional climate model RegCM3 as the atmospheric component and by a regional configuration of the MITgcm model as the oceanic component. The model is applied to an area encompassing the Mediterranean Sea and compared to a stand-alone version of its atmospheric component. An assessment of the model performances is done by using available observational datasets. Despite a persistent bias, the PROTHEUS system is able to capture the inter-annual variability of seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) and also the fine scale spatio-temporal evolution of observed SST anomalies, with spatial correlation as high as 0.7 during summer. The close inspection of a 10-day strong wind event during the summer of 2000 proves the capability of the PROTHEUS system to correctly describe the daily evolution of SST under strong air–sea interaction conditions. As a consequence of the model’s skill in reproducing observed SST and wind fields, we expect a reliable estimation of air–sea fluxes. The model skill in reproducing climatological land surface fields is in line with that of state of the art regional climate models.     

Impact of soil moisture�Catmosphere coupling on European climate extremes and trends in a regional climate model

Processes acting at the interface between the land surface and the atmosphere have a strong impact on the European summer climate, particularly during extreme years. These processes are to a large extent associated with soil moisture (SM). This study investigates the role of soil moisture?Catmosphere coupling for the European summer climate over the period 1959?C2006 using simulations with a regional climate model. The focus of this study is set on temperature and precipitation extremes and trends. The analysis is based on simulations performed with the regional climate model CLM, driven with ECMWF reanalysis and operational analysis data. The set of experiments consists of a control simulation (CTL) with interactive SM, and sensitivity experiments with prescribed SM: a dry and a wet run to determine the impact of extreme values of SM, as well as experiments with lowpass-filtered SM from CTL to quantify the impact of the temporal variability of SM on different time scales. Soil moisture?Cclimate interactions are found to have significant effects on temperature extremes in the experiments, and impacts on precipitation extremes are also identified. Case studies of selected major summer heat waves reveal that the intraseasonal and interannual variability of SM account for 5?C30% and 10?C40% of the simulated heat wave anomaly, respectively. For extreme precipitation events on the other hand, only the wet-day frequency is impacted in the experiments with prescribed soil moisture. Simulated trends for the past decades, which appear consistent with projected changes for the 21st century, are identified to be at least partly linked to SM-atmosphere feedbacks.     

The Bise—Climatology of a regional wind north of the Alps

Summary The Bise is one of several regional winds in the Alpine area occuring in connection with postfrontal pressure rise and cold air advection. Like the Mistral, the Bise is also induced by a synoptiscale 850hPa pressure gradient (dp/dn _(NESW)1 hPa/100 km) and strongly determined by orographic effects.Apart from the classical postfrontal Bise in Spring, a deep Bise with strong cold air advection and sometimes rain appears during winter. A rough survey of the factors determining the wind profile during Bise, which is quite often characterized by a low-level jet structure, shows that dynamical effects induced by the topography like flow splitting, channeling and the formation of countercurrents may be very important.With 11 Figures     

Analysis of a regional change in the sign of the SAM�Ctemperature relationship in Antarctica

This study examines regional atmospheric circulation changes associated with a reversal in the sign of the relationship between the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and near-surface temperatures at Halley station, East Antarctica, during the 1980s. We show that the key factor affecting the regional SAM?Ctemperature relationship (STR) is the relative magnitude of two climatological low pressure centres to the west and east of the area, which determines the source region of air masses advected into the locality. The principal difference affecting the STR is shown to be a trend towards a significantly weaker climatological low (higher pressure) at ~20°E during a positive phase of the SAM. Specifically, it is variations in the phase and magnitude of the wave number three patterns of atmospheric circulation, the non-annular component of the SAM, which are the principal factors governing the regional STR. A similar reversal is observed in the sign of the correlation between the SAM and oxygen-isotope values from an ice core located some 1,200?km east of Halley. This relationship is examined throughout the 20th Century, by comparing the isotope data to SAM reconstructions, and demonstrates marked decadal variability. Thus, these data suggest that switches in the STR are more likely to reflect natural variability in the long-wave patterns over the Southern Ocean rather than the influence of an anthropogenic forcing. This finding is important when considering the potential utility of Antarctic isotope data as a proxy for the SAM.     

Near-term increase in frequency of seasonal temperature extremes prior to the 2°C global warming target

Given current international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit human-induced global-mean near-surface temperature increases to 2°C, relative to the pre-industrial era, we seek to determine the impact such a temperature increase might have upon the frequency of seasonal-mean temperature extremes; further we seek to determine what global-mean temperature increase would prevent extreme temperature values from becoming the norm. Results indicate that given a 2°C global mean temperature increase it is expected that for 70–80% of the land surface maximum seasonal-mean temperatures will exceed historical extremes (as determined from the 95th percentile threshold value over the second half of the 20th Century) in at least half of all years, i.e. the current historical extreme values will effectively become the norm. Many regions of the globe—including much of Africa, the southeastern and central portions of Asia, Indonesia, and the Amazon—will reach this point given the “committed” future global-mean temperature increase of 0.6°C (1.4°C relative to the pre-industrial era) and 50% of the land surface will reach it given a future global-mean temperature increase of between 0.8 and 0.95°C (1.6–1.75°C relative to the pre-industrial era). These results suggest substantial fractions of the globe could experience seasonal-mean temperature extremes with high regularity, even if the global-mean temperature increase remains below the 2°C target.     

Epochal changes in the seasonal evolution of tropical Indian Ocean warming associated with El Niño

The epochal changes in the seasonal evolution of El Niño induced tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming in the context of mid-1970s regime shift is investigated in this study. El Niño induced warming is delayed by one season in the northern TIO during epoch-2 (post mid-1970) and southern TIO during epoch-1 (pre mid-1970). Significant spatiotemporal changes in TIO (especially in the north) warming are apparent during the developing phase of El Niño. The ocean dynamics is the major driver in the basin wide warming during epoch-2 whereas heat fluxes are the dominant processes during epoch-1. Strong coupling between thermocline and sea surface temperature (SST) in epoch-2 indicates that El Niño induced oceanic changes are very significant in the seasonal evolution of basin-wide warming. The thermocline-SST coupling is strengthened by the upward propagating subsurface warming in epoch-2. The westward propagating barrier layer over southern TIO supports persistence of warm SST (over southwest TIO in epoch-2), which in turn induce spring asymmetric mode in winds and precipitation. The asymmetric wind pattern and persistent subsidence over maritime continent are primarily responsible for stronger spring warming in epoch-2. The strong east equatorial Indian Ocean cooling in epoch-2 is mainly driven by coastal upwelling over Java–Sumatra coast, whereas in epoch-1 the weak cooling is controlled by the latent heat flux. The spatiotemporal changes in TIO SST warming and their evolution have strong impact on atmospheric circulation and rainfall distribution over the Indian Oceanic rim through local air–sea interaction.     

Analysis of high-resolution simulations for the Black Forest region from a point of view of tourism climatology �C a comparison between two regional climate models (REMO and CLM)

An analysis of climate simulations from a point of view of tourism climatology based on two regional climate models, namely REMO and CLM, was performed for a regional domain in the southwest of Germany, the Black Forest region, for two time frames, 1971?C2000 that represents the twentieth century climate and 2021?C2050 that represents the future climate. In that context, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios A1B and B1 are used. The analysis focuses on human-biometeorological and applied climatologic issues, especially for tourism purposes ?C that means parameters belonging to thermal (physiologically equivalent temperature, PET), physical (precipitation, snow, wind), and aesthetic (fog, cloud cover) facets of climate in tourism. In general, both models reveal similar trends, but differ in their extent. The trend of thermal comfort is contradicting: it tends to decrease in REMO, while it shows a slight increase in CLM. Moreover, REMO reveals a wider range of future climate trends than CLM, especially for sunshine, dry days, and heat stress. Both models are driven by the same global coupled atmosphere?Cocean model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Because both models are not able to resolve meso- and micro-scale processes such as cloud microphysics, differences between model results and discrepancies in the development of even those parameters (e.g., cloud formation and cover) are due to different model parameterization and formulation. Climatic changes expected by 2050 are small compared to 2100, but may have major impacts on tourism as for example, snow cover and its duration are highly vulnerable to a warmer climate directly affecting tourism in winter. Beyond indirect impacts are of high relevance as they influence tourism as well. Thus, changes in climate, natural environment, demography, tourists?? demands, among other things affect economy in general. The analysis of the CLM results and its comparison with the REMO results complete the analysis performed within the project Climate Trends and Sustainable Development of Tourism in Coastal and Low Mountain Range Regions (CAST) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).     

Analysis of the climatic constraints to maize production in the current agricultural region of Argentina—a probabilistic approach

A simple method of analysis was proposed to characterize the impact of climatic conditions of a wide region of Argentina (from 27°05′S to 35°48′S, from 61°5′W to 64°21′W) on potential maize (Zea mays L.) grain yield, and the occurrence of various climatic constraints (low temperatures and low soil water content, frost, drought stress and heat stress) along the cycle. The analysis was based on previous studies of the eco-physiology of maize crops and the use of climatic records of six locations in the region under study. Results were analyzed using a probabilistic method, later organized as a checklist to consider when deciding on sowing date in a location of the region. Thus, for each production scenario (combination of location and sowing date), farmers would have a tool enabling them to pay particular attention to the restrictions more likely to occur, to include some cultural practices to avoid or mitigate the most severe climatic constraint to maize production.     

Summertime land–sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate—Part II: Importance of CO2-induced continental warming

In this the second of a two-part study, we examine the physical mechanisms responsible for the increasing contrast of the land–sea surface air temperature (SAT) in summertime over the Far East, as observed in recent decades and revealed in future climate projections obtained from a series of transient warming and sensitivity experiments conducted under the umbrella of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. On a global perspective, a strengthening of land–sea SAT contrast in the transient warming simulations of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models is attributed to an increase in sea surface temperature (SST). However, in boreal summer, the strengthened contrast over the Far East is reproduced only by increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration. In response to SST increase alone, the tropospheric warming over the interior of the mid- to high-latitude continents including Eurasia are weaker than those over the surrounding oceans, leading to a weakening of the land–sea SAT contrast over the Far East. Thus, the increasing contrast and associated change in atmospheric circulation over East Asia is explained by CO₂-induced continental warming. The degree of strengthening of the land–sea SAT contrast varies in different transient warming scenarios, but is reproduced through a combination of the CO₂-induced positive and SST-induced negative contributions to the land–sea contrast. These results imply that changes of climate patterns over the land–ocean boundary regions are sensitive to future scenarios of CO₂ concentration pathways including extreme cases.