Learning to Adapt: Organisational Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts

Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new evidence presented from empirical research into adaptation in nine case-study companies. It argues that adaptation to climate change has many similarities with processes of organisational learning. The paper suggests that business organisations face a number of obstacles in learning how to adapt to climate change impacts, especially in relation to the weakness and ambiguity of signals about climate change and the uncertainty about benefits flowing from adaptation measures. Organisations rarely adapt ‘autonomously’, since their adaptive behaviour is influenced by policy and market conditions, and draws on resources external to the organisation. The paper identifies four adaptation strategies that pattern organisational adaptive behaviour.     

Down to Earth: Contextualizing the Anthropocene

The ‘Anthropocene’ is now being used as a conceptual frame by different communities and in a variety of contexts to understand the evolving human–environment relationship. However, as we argue in this paper, the notion of an Anthropos, or ‘humanity’, as global, unified ‘geological force’ threatens to mask the diversity and differences in the actual conditions and impacts of humankind, and does not do justice to the diversity of local and regional contexts. For this reason, we interpret in this article the notion of an Anthropocene in a more context-dependent, localized and social understanding. We do this through illustrating examples from four issue domains, selected for their variation in terms of spatial and temporal scale, systems of governance and functional interdependencies: nitrogen cycle distortion (in particular as it relates to food security); ocean acidification; urbanization; and wildfires. Based on this analysis, we systematically address the consequences of the lens of the Anthropocene for the governance of social-ecological systems, focusing on the multi-level, functional and sectoral organization of governance, and possible redefinitions of governance systems and policy domains. We conclude that the notion of the Anthropocene, once seen in light of social inequalities and regional differences, allows for novel analysis of issue-based problems in the context of a global understanding, in both academic and political terms. This makes it a useful concept to help leverage and (re-)focus our efforts in a more innovative and effective way to transition towards sustainability.     

Grassland biogeochemistry: Links to atmospheric processes

Regional modeling is an essential step in scaling plot measurements of biogeochemical cycling to global scales for use in coupled atmosphere-biosphere studies. We present a model of carbon and nitrogen biogeochemistry for the U.S. Central Grasslands region based on laboratory, field, and modeling studies. Model simulations of the geography of C and N biogeochemistry adequately fit observed data. Model results show geographic patterns of cycling rates and element storage to be a complex function of the interaction of climatic and soil properties. The model also includes regional trace gas simulation, providing a link between studies of atmospheric geochemistry and ecosystem function. The model simulates nitrogenous trace gas emission rates as a function of N turnover and indicates that they are variable across the grasslands. We studied effects of changing climate using information from a global climate model. Simulations showed that increases in temperature and associated changes in precipitation caused increases in decomposition and long-term emission of Co₂ from grassland soils. Nutrient release associated with the loss of soil organic matter caused increases in net primary production, demonstrating that nutrient interactions are a major control over vegetation response to climate change.     

Going to extremes: propositions on the social response to severe climate change

The growing literature on potentially-dangerous climate change is examined and research on human response to natural hazards is analyzed to develop propositions on social response pathways likely to emerge in the face of increasingly severe climate change. A typology of climate change severity is proposed and the potential for mal-adaptive responses examined. Elements of a warning system for severe climate change are briefly considered.     

Relationship of surface heat flux to microscale temperature variations: Application to boreas

The surface heat flux is normally parameterized in terms of the difference between the air temperature and the surface radiative temperature, or equivalently, the temperature computed from the surface energy balance. In this note, the relationship between the heat flux and the air-surface temperature difference is shown to be sensitive to the microscale variability of the surface radiation temperature caused by differences between the well-ventilated tree tops and less ventilated ground surface. This conclusion is based on surface and aircraft data collected during the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS). For this case, the heat flux cannot be predicted by adjusting the thermal roughness height. As an alternative, the aerodynamic temperature can be related to a weighted average of the surface radtation temperature analogous to application of a simple canopy model. Here, the total heat flux is the sum of the heat fluxes from each individual surface type weighted by the area-fractional coverage.Part of this work was carried out in the Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, St. Louis University and the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division of the National Center for Atmospheric Research.Part of this work was carried out in the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division of the National Center for Atmospheric Research.     

FSU-GSM forecast error sensitivity to initial conditions: Application to Indian summer monsoon

Summary The full-physics adjoint of the FSU Global Spectral Model of version T42L12 is applied to carry out sensitivity analysis of the localized model forecast error to the initial conditions for a case test occurring on June 8, 1988 during the Indian summer monsoon. The results show that adjoint sensitivity based on ECMWF analysis can be used to identify regions with large analysis uncertainties. The conclusion is that more observations are required over the northern Bay of Bengal to improve the quality of analyses so as to ameliorate the model forecast skill.With 17 Figures     

9 to 5: 9 approaches to tackle 5 aspects of climate change

Humans are modifying the Earth's climate by increasing the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other radiatively active trace gases. The resulting Climate Change is global, pervasive, complex, unpredictable, and irreversible. Nine different approaches (scientific assessment, structural analysis, decision analysis, procedure analysis, game theory, cost-benefit analysis, option valuation, insurance, and deterrence) are presented to explore how the five aspects of Climate Change affect the design of appropriate responses to its impacts.     

Arctic haze: Perturbation to the radiation field

Summary A model of the polluted arctic troposphere is constructed to estimate the magnitude and seasonal variation of the climate forcing function of arctic haze. Using a pill-box bathtub model for the Arctic and envisioning it to be filled with pollution from industrial sources in Eurasia, we estimate that maximum climate perturbation from arctic contamination occurs in the spring months. The major perturbation to the radiation budget is a lowering of the albedo (heating) of the earth-atmosphere system around the vernal equinox and is due to a trace amount (about 5% by mass) of black carbon associated with the removal-resistant submicron mode of aerosols. The black carbon over the reflecting polar ice/snow introduces a heating of about 1.5 degree per day into the haze layer.With 8 Figures     

European storminess: late nineteenth century to present

Annual and seasonal statistics of local air pressure characteristics have already been used as proxies for storminess across Northern Europe. We present an update of such proxies for Northern Europe and an unprecedented analysis for Central Europe which together considerably extends the current knowledge of European storminess. Calculations are completed for three sets of stations, located in North-Western, Northern and Central Europe. Results derived from spatial differences (geostrophic winds) and single station pressure changes per 24 h support each other. Geostrophic winds’ high percentiles (95th, 99th) were relatively high during the late nineteenth and the early twentieth century; after that they leveled off somewhat, to get larger again in the late twentieth century. The decrease happens suddenly in Central Europe and over several decades in Northern Europe. The subsequent rise is most pronounced in North-Western Europe, while slow and steady in Central Europe. Europe’s storm climate has undergone significant changes throughout the past 130 years and comprises significant variations on a quasi-decadal timescale. Most recent years feature average or calm conditions, supporting claims raised in earlier studies with new evidence. Aside from some dissimilarity, a general agreement between the investigated regions appears to be the most prominent feature. The capability of the NAO index to explain storminess across Europe varies in space and with the considered period.     

Adapting agriculture to climate change: a review

The agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to future climate changes and climate variability, including increases in the incidence of extreme climate events. Changes in temperature and precipitation will result in changes in land and water regimes that will subsequently affect agricultural productivity. Given the gradual change of climate in the past, historically, farmers have adapted in an autonomous manner. However, with large and discrete climate change anticipated by the end of this century, planned and transformational changes will be needed. In light of these, the focus of this review is on farm-level and farmers responses to the challenges of climate change both spatially and over time. In this review of adapting agriculture to climate change, the nature, extent, and causes of climate change are analyzed and assessed. These provide the context for adapting agriculture to climate change. The review identifies the binding constraints to adaptation at the farm level. Four major priority areas are identified to relax these constraints, where new initiatives would be required, i.e., information generation and dissemination to enhance farm-level awareness, research and development (R&D) in agricultural technology, policy formulation that facilitates appropriate adaptation at the farm level, and strengthening partnerships among the relevant stakeholders. Forging partnerships among R&D providers, policy makers, extension agencies, and farmers would be at the heart of transformational adaptation to climate change at the farm level. In effecting this transformational change, sustained efforts would be needed for the attendant requirements of climate and weather forecasting and innovation, farmer’s training, and further research to improve the quality of information, invention, and application in agriculture. The investment required for these would be highly significant. The review suggests a sequenced approach through grouping research initiatives into short-term, medium-term, and long-term initiatives, with each initiative in one stage contributing to initiatives in a subsequent stage. The learning by doing inherent in such a process-oriented approach is a requirement owing to the many uncertainties associated with climate change.     

How to increase technology transfers to developing countries: a synthesis of the evidence

The existing United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has failed to deliver the rate of low-carbon technology transfer (TT) required to curb GHG emissions in developing countries. This failure has exposed the limitations of universalism and renewed interest in bilateral approaches to TT. Gaps are identified in the UNFCCC approach to climate change TT: missing links between international institutions and the national enabling environments that encourage private investment; a non-differentiated approach for (developing) country and technology characteristics; and a lack of clear measurements of the volume and effectiveness of TTs. Evidence from econometric literature and business experience on climate change TT is reviewed, so as to address the identified pitfalls of the UNFCCC process. Strengths and weaknesses of different methodological approaches are highlighted. International policy recommendations are offered aimed at improving the level of emission reductions achieved through TT.