Effects of climate change on annual streamflow using climate elasticity in Poyang Lake Basin, China

Hydrological processes depend directly on climate conditions [e.g., precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PE)] based on the water balance. This paper examines streamflow datasets at four hydrological stations and meteorological observations at 79 weather stations to reveal the streamflow changes and underlying drivers in four typical watersheds (Meigang, Saitang, Gaosha, and Xiashan) within Poyang Lake Basin from 1961 to 2000. Most of the less than 90th percentile of daily streamflow in each watershed increases significantly at different rates. As an important indicator of the seasonal changes in the streamflow, CT (the timing of the mass center of the streamflow) in each watershed shows a negligible change. The annual streamflow in each watershed increases at different rates, with a statistically significant trend (at the 5 % level) of 9.87 and 7.72 mm year^?1, respectively, in Meigang and Gaosha watersheds. Given the existence of interactions between precipitation and PE, the original climate elasticity of streamflow can not reflect the relationship of streamflow with precipitation and PE effectively. We modify this method and find the modified climate elasticity to be more accurate and reasonable using the correlation analysis. The analyses from the modified climate elasticity in the four watersheds show that a 10 % increase (decrease) in precipitation will increase (decrease) the annual streamflow by 14.1–16.3 %, while a 10 % increase (decrease) in PE will decrease (increase) the annual streamflow by ?10.2 to ?2.1 %. In addition, the modified climate elasticity is applied to estimate the contribution of annual precipitation and PE to the increasing annual streamflow in each watershed over the past 40 years. Our result suggests that the percentage attribution of the increasing precipitation is more than 59 % and the decreasing in PE is less than 41 %, indicating that the increasing precipitation is the major driving factor for the annual streamflow increase for each watershed.     

Key climate indices in Switzerland; expected changes in a future climate

Climate indices facilitate the interpretation of expected climate change impacts for many sectors in society, economy, and ecology. The new localized data set of climatic change signals for temperature and precipitation presented by Zubler et al. (Clim Change, 2013) is applied for an analysis of frequently used climate indices in Switzerland. The indices considered are: number of summer days and tropical nights, growing season length, number of frost days and ice days, heating and cooling degree days, and the number of days with fresh snow. For the future periods 2020-49, 2045-74 and 2070–2099 the indices are computed using a delta-change approach based on the reference period 1980–2009 for the emission scenarios A1B, A2, and RCP3PD. The scenario data suggest the following relevant findings: (1) a doubling of the number of summer days by the end of the century under the scenarios A1B and A2, (2) an appearance of tropical nights even above 1500 m asl, (3) a possible reduction of the number of frost days by more than 3 months at altitudes higher than 2500 m asl, (4) a decline of heating degree days by about 30 % until the end of the century, and (5) the near disappearance of days with fresh snow at low altitudes. It is also shown that the end-of-the-century projections of all indices strongly depend on the chosen emission scenario.     

An analysis of regional climate change in Switzerland

Summary An analysis of daily climatological data covering the period from 1901 to 1992 for four locations in Switzerland (Zurich, Lugano, Davos, and Säntis) has been made. The study has highlighted the fact that climate change this century is characterized by increases in minimum temperatures of about 2 K, a more modest increase in maximum temperatures (in some instances a decrease of maxima in the latter part of the record), little trend in the precipitation data, and a general decrease of sunshine duration through to the mid 1980s. The interannual variability is generally large, and filtering of the data to remove high-frequency noise shows that the regional climate undergoes a series of fluctuations of between 8 and 20 years' duration. The temperature change over this century is of greater magnitude than the global temperature changes published in the literature, reflecting an amplification of the global signal in the Alpine region; warming has been most intense in the 1940s, followed by the 1980s; the cooling which intervened from the 1950s to the late 1970s was not sufficient to offset the warming in the middle of the century.Pressure statistics have been compiled as a means of providing a link between the regional-scale climatological variables and the synoptic, supra-regional scale. These statistics show that pressure also exhibits a number of decadal-scale fluctuations, with the appearance of a new and anomalous behavior in the 1980s; in this decade, pressure reaches annual average values far higher than at other times this century. The pressure field is well correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index for distinct periods of the record (1931–1950 and 1971–1990) and is almost decorrelated from the NAO Index for the other decades of the century; this is indicative of transition from one climatic régime to another, dominated by zonal flow when the correlation with the NAO Index is high. In the 1980s, when zonal flow over the North Atlantic is strong, episodes of persistent, anomalously high pressures (blocking highs) are seen to occur over Switzerland, particularly during the winter season. The difference between the zonal and non-zonal régimes is particularly marked between the decade of the 1950s and that of the 1980s.The impact of this change between the 1950s and the 1980s on a number of climatological variables has been investigated statistically in order to provide an illustration of the manner in which changes in synoptic régimes (i.e., climate change) impacts upon climate characteristics on a regional scale. The analysis shows that temperature, precipitation, snow depth, and sunshine duration are indeed sensitive to large-scale influences; not only can yearly mean changes be quantified, but also seasonal and monthly fluctuations.With 26 Figures     

Effects of projected climate change on the hydrology in the Mono Lake Basin, California

The Californian Mono Lake Basin (MLB) is a fragile ecosystem, for which a 1983 ruling carefully balanced water diversions with ecological needs without the consideration of global climate change. The hydroclimatologic response to the impact of projected climatic changes in the MLB has not been comprehensively assessed and is the focus of this study. Downscaled temperature and precipitation projections from 16 Global Climate Models (GCMs), using two emission scenarios (B1 and A2), were used to drive a calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model to assess the effects on streamflow on the two significant inflows to the MLB, Lee Vining and Rush Creeks. For the MLB, the GCM ensemble output suggests significant increases in annual temperature, averaging 2.5 and 4.1 °C for the B1 and A2 emission scenarios, respectively, with concurrent small (1–3 %) decreases in annual precipitation by the end of the century. Annual total evapotranspiration is projected to increase by 10 mm by the end of the century for both emission scenarios. SWAT modeling results suggest a significant hydrologic response in the MLB by the end of the century that includes a) decreases in annual streamflow by 15 % compared to historical conditions b) an advance of the peak snowmelt runoff to 1 month earlier (June to May), c) a decreased (10–15 %) occurrence of ‘wet’ hydrologic years, and d) and more frequent (7–22 %) drought conditions. Ecosystem health and water diversions may be affected by reduced water availability in the MLB by the end of the century.     

Methodology of assessing interannual dynamics of bioclimatic potential under climate change conditions

Scientific and methodological issues of assessing interannual variability of bioclimatic potential (BCP) in the Russian Federation are under consideration; mathematical models, technology of assessing the BCP from the multiyear mean data and individual years are presented. The calculations and assessments of the BCP and its components are performed by the constituent entities of the Russian Federation from the multiyear mean data and individual years over the period of 1997–2006. It is shown that in several constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the BCP for each year of a 10-year period of the BCP was either below or above its multiyear mean. It is also shown that in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, where the deficiency of thermal resources is observed, some increase in the BCP due to this factor is observed, however, it has not yet reached such values, which would not limit the effective use of other constituents and the BCP as a whole.     

Effects of climate change on snow accumulation and melting in the Broye catchment (Switzerland)

The study used a daily step conceptual hydrological model to examine the effects of climate change on snowfall accumulation and on snow cover melting in the Broye catchment (moderate relief- altitude from 400 to 1500 m a.s.l.). Five elevation bands representing a range of climatic conditions were used together with three realistic climate change scenarios based loosely on GCM's predictions and which reflect feasible changes by extending time periods. For a very moderate climate change (rise in air temperature of ca 1 °C), possibly in a near future, the reduction of snow cover duration, mean water equivalent and monthly maximum water equivalent is the most sensitive in the lower part of the catchment and during the first and last months of the snow season. In the higher part of the basin and during the colder months January and February, similar reduction rates can be expected in case of larger climate changes. The floods due to the melting of snow cover are lower. Sometimes rainfall, considered as snow in the present day conditions, generates additional floods during the winter season. For winter sports resorts below 1500 m a.s.l., even the very moderate climatic change scenario (temperature rise around 1 °C) leads to economically very difficult conditions. Finally, a climatic change detection index based on snow cover duration is proposed.     

Impact of climate change on runoff in Lake Urmia basin,Iran

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Investigation of the impact of climate change on water resources is very necessary in dry and arid regions. In the first part of this paper, the climate model...     

气候变化对水资源影响预估常用指标

正全球气候变暖已成共识。自20世纪50年代至今,全球几乎所有地区都在持续变暖。IPCC第五次评估报告(AR5)显示,全球温度将进一步升高[1]。以1986—2005年为基准,预计全球地表温度在2016—2035年将升高0.3～0.7℃,2081—2100年升高0.3～4.8℃[2]。全球变暖导致一系列环境问题:海洋温度及地球表面温度上升,     

Observed climate variability and change in Urmia Lake Basin, Iran

This paper analyzes climate variability and change in the Urmia Lake Basin, northwest of Iran. Annual average of the following data time series has been analyzed by statistical methods: dry bulb temperature, maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and number of rainy and snowy days. We have also used mean monthly temperature and precipitation data for analysis of drought spells for the period 1964–2005 to find out whether fluctuations in the lake level are attributable to natural drought. Our results indicate that mean precipitation has decreased by 9.2 % and the average maximum temperature has increased by 0.8°C over these four decades. The seasonal changes are particularly visible in winter and spring. Results of the Palmer Drought Severity Index show that on average, drought episodes have hit the Urmia Lake Basin every 5 years and most of them reached severe levels, but recent droughts have become more intense and last longer.     

Effect of climate change on regional precipitation in Lake Balaton watershed

Summary A methodology is developed and applied to the area of Lake Balaton and its drainage basin, a region of Western Hungary, to estimate the space-time distribution of daily precipitation under climate change. Lake Balaton is the largest lake in Central and Western Europe; it has a central location in the country and its drainage basin covers about the 20% of Hungary (together with the Sió Canal). The methodology is based on an analysis of the semi-Markovian properties of atmospheric macrocirculation pattern types (MCP), and a stochastic linkage between daily (here 700 hPa) MCP types and daily precipitation events. Historical data and General Circulation Model (GCM) output of daily MCP corresponding to 1 · CO₂ and 2 · CO₂ scenarios are considered in this study. Time series of both local and areal precipitation corresponding for both scenarios are simulated and their statistical properties are compared. For the temperate continental climate of Western Hungary a slightly variable spatial response to climate change is obtained. Under 2 · CO₂ conditions most of the local and the areal average precipitation suggests, a somewhat dryer precipitation regime in Western Hungary. The sensitivity of the results to the GCM utilized should be considered.With 10 Figures     

Localized climate change scenarios of mean temperature and precipitation over Switzerland

There is a growing need of the climate change impact modeling and adaptation community to have more localized climate change scenario information available over complex topography such as in Switzerland. A gridded dataset of expected future climate change signals for seasonal averages of daily mean temperature and precipitation in Switzerland is presented. The basic scenarios are taken from the CH2011 initiative. In CH2011, a Bayesian framework was applied to obtain probabilistic scenarios for three regions within Switzerland. Here, the results for two additional Alpine sub-regions are presented. The regional estimates have then been downscaled onto a regular latitude-longitude grid with a resolution of 0.02° or roughly 2 km. The downscaling procedure is based on the spatial structure of the climate change signals as simulated by the underlying regional climate models and relies on a Kriging with external drift using height as auxiliary predictor. The considered emission scenarios are A1B, A2 and the mitigation scenario RCP3PD. The new dataset shows an expected warming of about 1 to 6 °C until the end of the 21st century, strongly depending on the scenario and the lead time. Owing to a large vertical gradient, the warming is about 1 °C stronger in the Alps than in the Swiss lowlands. In case of precipitation, the projection uncertainty is large and in most seasons precipitation can increase or decrease. In summer a distinct decrease of precipitation can be found, again strongly depending on the emission scenario.     

The response of Lake Tahoe to climate change

Meteorology is the driving force for lake internal heating, cooling, mixing, and circulation. Thus continued global warming will affect the lake thermal properties, water level, internal nutrient loading, nutrient cycling, food-web characteristics, fish-habitat, aquatic ecosystem, and other important features of lake limnology. Using a 1-D numerical model—the Lake Clarity Model (LCM) —together with the down-scaled climatic data of the two emissions scenarios (B1 and A2) of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Global Circulation Model, we found that Lake Tahoe will likely cease to mix to the bottom after about 2060 for A2 scenario, with an annual mixing depth of less than 200 m as the most common value. Deep mixing, which currently occurs on average every 3–4 years, will (under the GFDL B1 scenario) occur only four times during 2061 to 2098. When the lake fails to completely mix, the bottom waters are not replenished with dissolved oxygen and eventually dissolved oxygen at these depths will be depleted to zero. When this occurs, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and ammonium-nitrogen (both biostimulatory) are released from the deep sediments and contribute approximately 51 % and 14 % of the total SRP and dissolved inorganic nitrogen load, respectively. The lake model suggests that climate change will drive the lake surface level down below the natural rim after 2085 for the GFDL A2 but not the GFDL B1 scenario. The results indicate that continued climate changes could pose serious threats to the characteristics of the Lake that are most highly valued. Future water quality planning must take these results into account.     

Projected climate change impacts on spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions within the Kailash Sacred Landscape of China,India, Nepal

Rapidly accelerating climate change in the Himalaya is projected to have major implications for montane species, ecosystems, and mountain farming and pastoral systems. A geospatial modeling approach based on a global environmental stratification is used to explore potential impacts of projected climate change on the spatial distribution of bioclimatic strata and ecoregions within the transboundary Kailash Sacred Landscape (KSL) of China, India and Nepal. Twenty-eight strata, comprising seven bioclimatic zones, were aggregated to develop an ecoregional classification of 12 ecoregions (generally defined by their potential dominant vegetation type), based upon vegetation and landcover characteristics. Projected climate change impacts were modeled by reconstructing the stratification based upon an ensemble of 19 Earth System Models (CIMP5) across four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios (i.e. 63 impact simulations), and identifying the change in spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions. Large and substantial shifts in bioclimatic conditions can be expected throughout the KSL area by the year 2050, within all bioclimatic zones and ecoregions. Over 76 % of the total area may shift to a different stratum, 55 % to a different bioclimatic zone, and 36.6 % to a different ecoregion. Potential impacts include upward shift in mean elevation of bioclimatic zones (357 m) and ecoregions (371 m), decreases in area of the highest elevation zones and ecoregions, large expansion of the lower tropical and sub-tropical zones and ecoregions, and the disappearance of several strata representing unique bioclimatic conditions within the KSL, with potentially high levels of biotic perturbance by 2050, and a high likelihood of major consequences for biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, conservation efforts and sustainable development policies in the region.     

Simple indices of global climate variability and change Part II: attribution of climate change during the twentieth century

Five simple indices of surface temperature are used to investigate the influence of anthropogenic and natural (solar irradiance and volcanic aerosol) forcing on observed climate change during the twentieth century. These indices are based on spatial fingerprints of climate change and include the global-mean surface temperature, the land-ocean temperature contrast, the magnitude of the annual cycle in surface temperature over land, the Northern Hemisphere meridional temperature gradient and the hemispheric temperature contrast. The indices contain information independent of variations in global-mean temperature for unforced climate variations and hence, considered collectively, they are more useful in an attribution study than global mean surface temperature alone. Observed linear trends over 1950–1999 in all the indices except the hemispheric temperature contrast are significantly larger than simulated changes due to internal variability or natural (solar and volcanic aerosol) forcings and are consistent with simulated changes due to anthropogenic (greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol) forcing. The combined, relative influence of these different forcings on observed trends during the twentieth century is investigated using linear regression of the observed and simulated responses of the indices. It is found that anthropogenic forcing accounts for almost all of the observed changes in surface temperature during 1946–1995. We found that early twentieth century changes (1896–1945) in global mean temperature can be explained by a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing, as well as internal climate variability. Estimates of scaling factors that weight the amplitude of model simulated signals to corresponding observed changes using a combined normalized index are similar to those calculated using more complex, optimal fingerprint techniques.     

Ecosystem responses to climate change in a large on-river reservoir, Lake Paldang, Korea

The impact of climate change on a large river reservoir ecosystem was investigated. Long-term meteorological data showed that recent climate change, including warmer winters, increased precipitation intensity and extended dry periods, may have influenced the basin of Lake Paldang, the most downstream reservoir of a series of on-river reservoirs. Extreme hydrologic events and climate warming, acting independently and in combination, appear to be related to changes in the Lake Paldang ecosystem. A significant increase in chlorophyll a concentrations in early spring corresponded to the timing of ice break-up. An increase in winter temperatures, which resulted in a shorter time period of ice-cover and earlier ice break-up, appears to have stimulated phytoplankton growth in winter and early spring. Repeated intensive and extended influxes of turbid water, associated with more frequent extreme rainfall events, have increased concentration of suspended solids and may have influenced the biotic community structure of Lake Paldang. In the mid-2000s, the area vegetated by submerged hydrophytes, the abundance and biomass of the phylum Mollusca, as well as the abundance of fish from the subfamily Acheilognathinae, which spawn in the body of bivalve molluscs, was all smaller than in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Together, these results suggest that climate change may have contributed directly and indirectly to changes in each trophic level of the Lake Paldang ecosystem.     

鄱阳湖生态经济区气候变化事实与预估

利用1961--2010年江西省26个气象站逐日气温和降水资料,研究分析鄱阳湖生态经济区历史气候变化事实;基于“中国地区气候变化预估数据集”（Version3．0）2014--2100年数据,预估未来不同RCP情景下区域气温和降水变化。结果表明,鄱阳湖生态经济区气温呈现显著上升趋势,升温趋势高于江西全省;降水强度呈增强趋势。未来气温依然呈现为上升趋势,如果从现在开始及时有效地采取应对措施,气温的上升趋势将在2040年后得到缓解。如果长时间存在高能源需求及高温室气体排放,则未来降水年际变化更大,极端降水事件发生将更为频繁。     

Effects of climate change on building energy consumption in cities

Summary Sensitivity of building-energy consumption to changing urban environments is examined by simulating building energy loads in hypothetical urban settings. A modified version of an algorithm developed by the U.S. Army Construction Engineering Research Laboratory is used to evaluate energy requirements. Energy loads for two buildings of interest are estimated for changing climatic conditions (air temperature) as well as changing environments around the building. An isolated building and a building surrounded by several other buildings are considered.Results indicate that climate warming may lead to energy savings in a wide range of climates while savings also depend on the nature of the building and its use. In cool climates, climate warming forces net energy-load decreases through reductions of the winter heating loads. For example, a one-degree increase in annual air temperature in Duluth led to a 10 kWh decrease in net energy loads for a small office building. In warm climates, urbanization tends to accelerate energy consumption although shadowing may contribute significantly to decreases in summer cooling loads. In Phoenix, annual mean daily net energy loads decreased by about 10 kWh due to shadowing for the same office building. Even in relatively cool regions, summer cooling-load reductions caused by shadowing are effective.With 12 Figures     

Recent climate change: Rethinking drought in the context of Forest Fire Research in Ticino, South of Switzerland

Summary We analyse trends over the past 32 years in drought variables in the context of forest fire research and climate change in Ticino, Southern Switzerland. January to April and in particular the month of March have become drier. This is the time of the year when forest fires are most frequent. Our results show an increasing trend in all climatic variables favourable to drought and forest fires, including the length of episodes without precipitation, sunshine duration and temperature, and a decrease in relative humidity. The only exception is the number of “foehn” days, which have not significantly increased.     

Dissecting indices of aridity for assessing the impacts of global climate change

There is great interest in understanding how climate change will impact aridity through the interaction of precipitation changes with rising temperatures. The Aridity Index (AI), Climatic Moisture Deficit (CMD), and Climatic Moisture Surplus (CMS) are metrics commonly used to quantify and map patterns in aridity and water cycling. Here we show that these metrics have different patterns of change under future climate—based on an ensemble of nine general circulation climate models—and the different metrics are appropriate for different purposes. Based on these differences between the metrics, we propose that aridity can be dissected into three different types—hydrological (CMS), agricultural (CMD), and meteorological. In doing this, we propose a novel modified version of the Aridity Index, called AI+, that can be useful for assessing changes in meteorological aridity. The AI?+?is based on the same ratio between precipitation and evapotranspiration as the traditional AI, but unlike the traditional AI, the AI?+?only accounts for changes to precipitation during months when precipitation is less than reference/potential evapotranspiration (i.e. there is a deficit). Moreover, we show that the traditional AI provides a better estimate of change in moisture surplus driven by changes to precipitation during the wet season, rather than changes in deficit that occur during the drier seasons. These results show that it is important to select the most appropriate metric for assessing climate driven changes in aridity.