Estimation of interaction between climatic processes: Effect of sparse sample of analyzed data series

It is shown that the approach based on the Granger causality may lead to erroneous conclusions about bidirectional coupling (BC) in the case of unidirectional coupling (UC) and quite a sparse sample of the data series analyzed. This effect was revealed in an analysis of coupling between variations in the solar irradiance and global surface temperature. We present a statistical test to confirm or reject speculations about the character (unidirectional or bidirectional) of coupling. The corresponding analysis of coupling between phenomena of El Niño and the Indian Monsoon confirmed the earlier conclusions about their mutual influence.     

On the necessity of creating a series of oceanographic climatic research atlases (SOCRAT)

In this paper, an integration method is proposed for a system of ocean dynamics equations (3DPEM) for creating a series of atlases with the joint title SOCRAT so that circulation in lower ocean layers can be adjusted to circulation in upper layers, avoiding smoothing of the intensity in upper layers caused by long integration or poor resolution. Specific simulations are presented, which were carried out by the author with a group of colleagues. These results conserve the realistic features of circulation thanks to the short integration period and high resolution. It is shown that due to long integration and/or simulation with rough resolution, simulations lose the main feature of ocean dynamics: intense alongshore currents; as a result, a nonexistant stable physical state uncharacteristic of an ocean is imposed.     

中国东部地区全新世气候演化及其与气候事件的对应性

在格陵兰GISP2冰芯气候演化曲线及北半球30°～90°N全新世气候演化综合曲线的基础上,统合了中国东部地区近年获得的全新世洞穴石笋、黄土沉积、湖泊沉积等典型气候演化曲线,建立了全新世气候节律分期,划分了11个暖期(编号W1—W11),10个冷期(编号C1—C10).以此为基础,首次将中国东部全新世发生的洪水、海进、海...     

Ensuring confidence in radionuclide-based sediment chronologies and bioturbation rates

Sedimentary records of naturally occurring and fallout-derived radionuclides are widely used as tools for estimating both the ages of recent sediments and rates of sedimentation and bioturbation. Developing these records to the point of data interpretation requires careful sample collection, processing, analysis and data modeling. In this work, we document a number of potential pitfalls that can impact sediment core records and their interpretation. This paper is not intended as an exhaustive treatment of these potential problems. Rather, the emphasis is on potential problems that are not well documented in the literature, as follows: (1) the mere sampling of sediment cores at a resolution that is too coarse can result in an apparent diffusive mixing of the sedimentary record at rates comparable to diffusive bioturbation rates observed in many locations; (2) ²¹⁰Pb profiles in slowly accumulating sediments can easily be misinterpreted to be driven by sedimentation, when in fact bioturbation is the dominant control. Multiple isotopes of different half lives and/or origin may help to distinguish between these two possible interpretations; (3) apparent mixing can occur due simply to numerical artifacts inherent in the finite difference approximations of the advection diffusion equation used to model sedimentation and bioturbation. Model users need to be aware of this potential problem. Solutions to each of these potential pitfalls are offered to ensure the best possible sediment age estimates and/or sedimentation and bioturbation rates can be obtained.     

A novel technique in analyzing non-linear wave-wave interaction

During wave growth non-linear wave–wave interactions cause transfer of some wave energy from lower to higher wave periods as the spectrum grows. Wavelet bicoherence, which is a new technique in the analysis of wind–wave and wave–wave interactions, is used to analyze non-linear wave–wave interactions. A selected record of wind wave that contains the maximum wave height observed during 6 h of wave generation is divided into five segments and wavelet bicoherence is computed for the whole record, and for all divided segments. The study shows that the non-linear wave–wave interaction occurs at different bicoherence levels and these levels are different from one segment to another due to the non-stationarity feature of the examined data set.     

膨化饲料中粗脂肪总量的测定

由于乙醚直接提取法不能完全提取膨化饲料中的脂肪，使粗脂肪的测定结果产生较大的偏低，故本文对酸水解-乙醚提取法进行方法探讨和对比实验.结果表明，酸水解-乙醚提取法测定膨化饲料中脂肪具有较高的准确性和精密度(S/X＜3％).本文方法适宜于膨化饲料中脂肪的测定，并建议用酸水解-乙醚提取法作为挤压膨化饲料中脂类测定的行业标准方法.     

Nitrogen cycle in the earth climatic system and its modeling

Investigations into the nitrogen cycle in the climatic system of the earth are reviewed with special emphasis on the biospheric nitrogen cycle. Approaches to modeling the biogeochemical nitrogen turnover are described. Excluding the nitrogen cycle from consideration when probable consequences of climate change are analyzed can lead to inaccurate estimates of the ecosystem response, in particular, for regions where mineral compounds of soil nitrogen are a limiting factor for the development of vegetation cover. Numerical experiments with climatic models point to a substantial influence of the nitrogen turnover on the feedback between climatic characteristics and the carbon cycle. Models of the combined dynamics of carbon and nitrogen make it possible to obtain realistic estimates of present-day resources and fluxes of these elements in ecosystems, as well as to estimate their changes during possible climatic changes.     

(→Q)矢量分析法在福建两次飑线天气过程分析中的应用

简要介绍了准地转(→Q)矢量分析方法,并用NCEP 1°×1°格点资料计算了(→Q)矢量、(→Q)矢量散度场及(→Q)矢量锋生函数等物理量.从(→Q)矢量流场、(→Q)矢量散度场水平和垂直分布,及(→Q)矢量锋生函数场分布等方面,对2005年5月5日福建前后两次飑线天气过程进行了分析.其结果表明(→Q)矢量分析方法对强对流天气的预报具有指示作用.     

Estimating climatic temperature change in the ocean with syntheticacoustic apertures

An acoustic tomography simulation is carried out in the eastern North Pacific ocean to assess whether climate trends are better detected and mapped with mobile or fixed receivers. In both cases, acoustic signals from two stationary sources are transmitted to ten receivers. Natural variability of the sound-speed field is simulated with the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) layered-ocean model. A sequential Kalman-Bucy filter is used to estimate the sound speed field, where the a priori error covariance matrix of the parameters is estimated from the NRL model. A spatially homogeneous climate trend is added to the NRL fluctuations of sound speed, but the trend is not parameterized in the Kalman filter. Acoustic travel times are computed between the sources and receivers by combining sound speeds from the NRL model with those from the unparameterized climate trend. The effects of the unparameterized climate trend are projected onto parameters which eventually drift beyond acceptable limits. At that time, the unparameterized trend is detected. Mobile and fixed receivers detect the trend at about the same time. At detection time, however, maps from fixed receivers are less accurate because some of the unparameterized climate trend is projected onto tile spatially varying harmonics of the sound-speed field. With mobile receivers, the synthetic apertures suppress the projection onto these harmonics. Instead, the unparametrized trend is correctly projected onto the spatially homogeneous portion of the parameterized sound-speed field     

A classification of hydrological climatic seasons in the China seas

By using a method of boundary temperature index of seasons, a classification of hydrological climatic seasons in the China seas is made on the basis statistics of the sea surface air and water temperatures over the years. The results indicate that the assignment of hydrological seasons in the China seas differs with various sea areas. It may be divided into three climatic belts. In the temperate zone area, four seasons are clearly distinct with very long winter. While in the subtropical zone area, there is no winter throughout the year. The autumn is linked together with the spring, and the summer is unusually long. As for the tropical zone area, it is summer all the year round without any other seasons. In addition , the regular pattern of transformation of the four seasons and the regional characteristics of the length of each season are analyzed in greater detail. The results are in agreement with the continental seasonal classification and it is also shown that the results are reasonable and reliabl     

Seasonal variability of climatic currents in the Caspian Sea reconstructed by assimilation of climatic temperature and salinity into the model of water circulation

We present the results of an analysis of the seasonal variability of current fields in the Caspian Sea, reconstructed by assimilation of climatic temperature and salinity into the primitive-equation model of water circulation on the basis of an algorithm for adaptive statistics of prediction errors. The sources in heat and salt transfer-diffusion equations depend on the spatial and temporal variability of the variances of prediction errors and one-dimensional (in the vertical coordinate) variances of measurement errors for temperature and salinity. The variances of prediction errors are adjusted at the moments of data assimilation in accordance with a simplified Kalman filter. The climatic circulation of waters in the Caspian Sea is shown to be highly varying. The maximum of its intensity over the entire depth is reached in February. The minimum of kinetic energy is observed in April. The currents in deep-sea areas are determined by the balance between wind and baroclinic factors of the formation of circulation with wind currents prevalent.     

Unusual diatoms linked to climatic events in the northeastern English Channel

The composition of the micro-phytoplankton was investigated at two fixed stations in the northeastern English Channel from November 1997 to December 2005. In late summer-autumn 2005, proliferations of the centric diatoms Proboscia indica and Rhizosolenia hebetata f. semispina were recorded for the first time in this area. The weather in 2005 was abnormal: a cold winter and early arrival of summer conditions that extended to late autumn. This resulted in an unusually long, sustained calm and warm period. We suggest that the reduction in mixing may have allowed diatoms of more-stratified waters to be competitive in the normally highly mixed northeastern English Channel in summer-autumn 2005. In 2003 and in 2005, two warm-water diatom species were recorded for the first time. A colony of Eucampia cornuta was observed after an exceptional heat wave in September of 2003, and again in September 2005. Simultaneously at both fixed stations, Chaetoceros peruvianus was recorded in the warm October of 2005. The climatic events are associated with the northward spreading of thermophilic diatoms such as E. cornuta and Ch. peruvianus in the European Atlantic waters, and the proliferation of diatoms of stratified environments such as P. indica and R. hebetata f. semispina in the usually highly turbulent waters of the northeastern English Channel.     

快速萃取在海洋有机物分析中的应用

海洋环境中有机化合物的研究是海洋研究中的一项重要内容,而样品的前处理又是其中最费时、最关键的环节,如何快速准确地获得目标待测有机物,一直是国内外学者所关注的问题。传统的萃取方法,如索氏提取由于其耗时长、溶剂用量多等缺点已被许多实验室所淘汰,超声波提取也存在类似     

富钴结壳主要成分的X荧光快速测定

采用粉末样品压片制样的预处理技术,用X射线荧光光谱仪同时测定富钴结壳中主要成分Mn、Fe、Cu、Co、Ni、Al2O3、CaO、K2O、MgO、TiO2等的含量,结果表明:该分析测定方法的分析结果准确、可靠,准确度和精密度均符合分析质量要求,且仅需5min就可以测定出全部待测元素含量,是一种快速、准确的分析测定方法。     

山东中部典型冰川岩溶的发现及气候意义

冰川岩溶为冰川融水对于下伏灰岩地层侵蚀形成的岩溶地貌,具有重要的气候意义,国内少有深入的研究.在山东费县小泉庄一带灰岩面上发现河曲状岩溶槽与冰臼一起构成的岩溶系统.对岩溶通道水流路径进行恢复,发现岩溶通道水流起源于前端的冰臼,根据岩溶通道的叠加关系恢复了通道形成的先后次序,进一步发现了冰臼具有位移特征,位移量的大小显示...     

Mapping climatic temperature changes in the ocean with acoustictomography: navigational requirements

In eddy-resolving hydrodynamic models, first-mode baroclinic Rossby waves linked to El Nino/Southern Oscillation are the dominant features which change basin-wide temperatures below the seasonal thermocline in the northeast Pacific at periods less than a decade. Simulations are carried out in which Rossby waves are mapped using acoustic tomography. Based on the model which propagated these waves, a Kalman filter is used to map temperature signals for a year. The modeled data are taken from a dense network of acoustic tomography sections. At 300-m depth, where the temperature perturbations associated with Rossby waves are about ±1°C, 80% to 90% of the model variance is accounted for with tomographic estimates. The corresponding standard deviations of the estimates are less than 0.1°C at 400-km resolution. About 80% of the model variance is accounted for with tomography when the navigational errors of the sources and receivers are as poor as one kilometer. Consequently, it may be unnecessary to accurately navigate actual tomographic instruments to map climate change. Modeling results are insensitive to: 1) a reduction in data due to a significant number of instruments which fail; 2) whether the instruments are mobile or fixed; 3) the detailed trajectories of mobile receivers; 4) the shape of the a priori spectrum of ocean fluctuations; 5) the corrections to the acoustic travel-time biases; and 6) the errors in the sound-speed algorithm. In basin-scale arrays, the modeled variance of acoustic travel time depends on the horizontal wavenumber of temperature as k^-5.5. Because sound has little sensitivity to small wavelengths, modeled Rossby waves can be mapped in a day from a few sources and of order ten receivers. The results only depend on the model having large scales in space and time     

Marine ecosystems’ responses to climatic and anthropogenic forcings in the Mediterranean

The semi-enclosed nature of the Mediterranean Sea, together with its smaller inertia due to the relative short residence time of its water masses, make it highly reactive to external forcings, in particular variations of water, energy and matter fluxes at the interfaces. This region, which has been identified as a “hotspot” for climate change, is therefore expected to experience environmental impacts that are considerably greater than those in many other places around the world. These natural pressures interact with the increasing demographic and economic developments occurring heterogeneously in the coastal zone, making the Mediterranean even more sensitive. This review paper aims to provide a review of the state of current functioning and responses of Mediterranean marine biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems with respect to key natural and anthropogenic drivers and to consider the ecosystems’ responses to likely changes in physical, chemical and socio-economical forcings induced by global change and by growing anthropogenic pressure at the regional scale. The current knowledge on and expected changes due to single forcing (hydrodynamics, solar radiation, temperature and acidification, chemical contaminants) and combined forcing (nutrient sources and stoichiometry, extreme events) affecting the biogeochemical fluxes and ecosystem functioning are explored. Expected changes in biodiversity resulting from the combined action of the different forcings are proposed. Finally, modeling capabilities and necessity for modeling are presented. A synthesis of our current knowledge of expected changes is proposed, highlighting relevant questions for the future of the Mediterranean ecosystems that are current research priorities for the scientific community. Finally, we discuss how these priorities can be approached by national and international multi-disciplinary research, which should be implemented on several levels, including observational studies and modeling at different temporal and spatial scales.     

气候变化背景下江苏省水稻气候适宜性区划研究

综合利用前人研究结果与江苏地区水稻生长所需的光、温、水特性,提出了江苏水稻气候适宜性评价指标为适宜生长期、5—10月降水量、t≥10℃活动积温、日照时数;依据现有稻麦(油)两熟的耕作制度,确立了江苏水稻气候适宜性区划因子和分级阈值。基于1961—2019年江苏省及周边共85个站(市、区)的气象数据,采用模糊综合评判法建立水稻气候适宜性评估模型,并确定综合评估指数,利用ArcGIS的自然断点法,将江苏中熟中粳、迟熟中粳、早熟晚粳、中熟晚粳种植适宜区进行区划。通过30 a尺度下的年代际分析发现,由于适宜生长期延长和活动积温增加,使得四个品种特性的水稻适宜种植区域均有所调整,其中晚熟粳稻的种植范围北扩到淮河以南地区。     

确定海洋沉积物中污染物来源的方法-多变量主成分分析方法

排入海洋环境中的大多数化学制品的地球化学循环过程与其所在的沉积物有很大的联系 ,这些沉积物可以与污染物相混合并通过它们在水中的运动搅动输运这些污染物从而使污染效果扩大。沉积物运动所产生的影响在河口浅水区域尤其突出。因此 ,已经广泛应用沉积物来确定污染物的来源、测定它们的浓度范围、判断水生系统的环境质量。与大陆边缘和河口环境污染相关的问题之一就是对污染物来源的确定。KrumgalzBS (1 993 )和HopkePK(1 983 )对区域性海洋环境中的这个问题进行过讨论 ,他们都是以假设为基础 ,假设如果任意一个特定地区的相同来源的…     

Physical and hydrological characteristics of climatic frontal zones in the Tropical Atlantic

Climatic frontal zones are selected in the thermohaline fields of the Tropical Atlantic by analyzing the many-year-average seasonal database reduced to the nodes of a one-degree grid. We determine physical characteristics of the frontal zones, study their spatial and temporal variability, and reveal basic regularities of the appearance of frontal zones in the fields of thermohaline characteristics. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev