Vulnerability and risk: comparing assessment approaches

The concepts vulnerability and risk are of great importance in the fields of climate change and natural hazards. Confusion is asserted in the terminology used by the respective communities, and a large conceptual literature has not solved this problem. This affects the communication within and between the two communities and the comparison of results from vulnerability and risk assessments. This paper argues that the main difference between methods to assess vulnerability and risk in the climate and the disaster communities is not a conceptual one, but rather different terminologies are used. This point is made using a formal framework of vulnerability to climate change that makes the structure of vulnerability and risk assessments explicit. The framework distinguishes three assessment approaches in the field of vulnerability to climate change, which recur—under different labels—in the risk assessment approaches analysed. While within each community, the same terms are ambiguously used to refer to more than one assessment approach, the confusion is enhanced between the two communities by using different labels for very similar approaches. As an application of the results, similarities and differences between two assessment tools are analysed: the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment model (DIVA) for the case of vulnerability to climate change and the CATastrophe SIMulation model (CatSim) for risk of natural hazards.     

Geo-hydrological database modeling for integrated multiple hazards and risk assessment in Lesser Himalaya: a GIS-based case study

The main objective of the study was to assess the integrated multiple hydrological hazards and their environmental and socio-economic risks in Himalaya through geographical information system (GIS) and database management system (DBMS). The Dabka Watershed constitutes a part of the Kosi Basin in the Kumaun Lesser Himalaya has been selected for the case illustration. The Dabka DBMS is constituted of three GIS modules, that is, geo-informatics, hydro-informatics and hazard-informatics. Through the integration and superimposing of these modules prepared Hydrological Hazard Index to identify the level of vulnerability for existing hydrological hazards and their socio-economic and environmental risks. The results suggested that geo-environmentally most stressed barren land areas have high rate of runoff, flood magnitude, erosion sediment load and denudation during rainy season particularly in the month of August (i.e., respectively, 84.56 l/s/km², 871.80 l/s/km², 78.60 t/km² and 1.21 mm/year), which accelerates high hazards and their socio-economic and environmental risks, whereas geo-environmentally least stressed dense forest areas experience low rate of stream runoff, flood magnitude, erosion sediment load and denudation in the same season and month (i.e., respectively, 20.67 l/s/km², 58.12 l/s/km², 19.50 t/km² and 0.20 mm/year) comparatively have low hazards and their socio-economic and environmental risks. The other frazzled geo-environment that also found highly vulnerable for natural hazards and their risks is agricultural land due to high stream runoff, flood magnitude, erosion sediment load and denudation rates (i.e., respectively, 53.15 l/s/km², 217.95 l/s/km², 90.00 t/km² and .92 mm/year). This makes it necessary to take up an integrated and comprehensive sustainable land use policy for the entire Himalaya region based on the scientific interpretation of the crucial linkages between land use and hydrological hazards, that is, floods, erosion, landslides during rainy season and drought due to dry-up of natural springs and streams during summer season. The study would help the village, district and state development authority to formulate decision support system for alternate planning and management for the Himalaya region.     

承灾体易损性评估模型与滑坡灾害风险度指标

承灾体易损性定量评估是制约滑坡灾害风险评估研究的瓶颈问题。为此,以滑坡体冲击冲量为致灾强度指标、建筑物整体抗剪力为抗灾性能指标,推导出典型承灾体易损性定量评估模型。在此基础上,考虑滑体运动特征参数随机性对易损性的影响,提出风险曲线和最大风险度指标的概念,以反映滑坡灾害成灾全过程中不确定性对灾害后果的影响。并采用该模型分析了坡体几何特征参数、受灾体空间位置以及受灾体抗灾性能对易损性的影响规律。将风险度指标应用于算例分析,并与以往方法进行了比较,分析发现,建立的易损性定量评估模型可以反映二维简化情况下受灾体毁损程度与各种影响因素之间关系的基本规律,为易损性定量评估提供了一种途径。     

Hydrological hazards in Russia: origin,classification, changes and risk assessment

Hydrological extreme events pose an imminent risk to society and economics. In this paper, various aspects of hydrological hazards in Russia are analysed at different scales of risk assessment. It is shown that the number of hydrological and meteorological hazards in Russia has been growing every year. The frequency of economic losses associated with extreme low flow in this century has increased by factor five compared to the last decade of the previous century. With regard to floods, an interesting spatial patter can be observed. On the one hand, the number of floods in the Asian part of the country has increased, whereas on the other hand, the number and intensity of floods in estuarine areas in the European part of Russia have significantly reduced since the middle of the twentieth century, especially in the 2000s. This decrease can be attributed to runoff flooding in the mouths of regulated rivers, with an effective system of flood and ice jam protection. The analysis shows that there is an 8–12-year periodicity in the number of flood occurrences and that flood surges have intensified over the last 110 years, especially on the European territory of Russia. An integrated index that accounts for flood hazards and socio-economic vulnerability was calculated for each region of Russia. A classification of flood risk was also developed, taking into account more than 20 hydrological and social–economic characteristics. Based on these characteristics, hazard and vulnerability maps for entire Russia were generated which can be used for water management and the development of future water resources plans.

     

Vulnerability assessment for preliminary flood risk mapping and management in coastal areas

Despite continuing technological advancement in hazard and vulnerability assessment, risk modelling and hazard mitigation techniques, losses to disasters associated with natural hazards continue and in some cases are increasing across Europe and worldwide. This paper focuses on the need to bridge the gap between technical solutions and the sociopolitical contexts in which these are produced, to better understand and create more effective risk management regimes. We do so with application of the science–policy co-production frame to landslide risk management in Italy. The methodology deployed included a desk study informed by semi-structured interviews carried out with selected key stakeholders at national, regional and municipal level. We propose a normative and analytical framework for transferring co-production into natural hazard research by presenting a matrix identifying four contexts within which co-production may unfold. The matrix is based on two axes, which distinguish between innovation and its absence in science and policy domains. We examine several examples of co-production, such as the water–soil integrated approach to risk management or the implementation of hazard/risk assessment. The results highlight that the insulation of science from the institutional context within which knowledge is produced and used is a very problematic issue. This often hinders the implementation of desirable policies and undermines the effectiveness of interventions. Moreover, innovation in science and policy does not automatically result in successful solutions for landslide risk management. Finally, results confirm the utility of co-production but also highlight methodological challenges associated with the introduction of this new conceptual paradigm into the well-structured communities of scientists and policy-makers.     

New risk assessment products for dealing with financial exposure to weather hazards

A market place designed to provide a variety of weather-sensitive institutions with products for dealing with their risks from weather-climate hazards has been developing in recent years. Shifts in demographics, growing population, and greater wealth across the U.S., coupled with de-regulation of utilities and expansion of global economics, have increased corporate vulnerability to weather/climate extremes. Availability of long-term quality climate data and new technologies have allowed development of weather-risk products. One widely used by electric-gas utilities is weather derivatives. These allow a utility to select a financially critical seasonal weather threshold and for a price paid to a provider, to get financial payments if this threshold is exceeded. Another new product primarily used by the insurance industry is weather risk models. These define the potential risks of severe weather losses across a region where little historical insured loss data exists. Firms develop weather-risk models based on historical storm information combined with a target region’s societal, economic, and physical conditions. Examples of the derivatives and weather-risk models and their uses are presented. These various endeavors of the new weather market exhibit the potential for dealing with shifts in weather risks due to a change in climate.     

基于人工神经网络的区域地质灾害危险性预测评价

地质灾害危险性预测评价的准确性,主要取决于基础资料的可靠性和数学模型的合理性。论文结合工程实例,尝试用人工神经网络方法(改进的神经网络BP模型)对区域地质灾害危险性预测进行评价研究。然后与目前常用的方法(如层次分析法、信息量法和模糊综合评判法等)所得出的结果相比较。结果表明,运用人工神经网络方法对区域地质灾害危险性预测评价相对常用方法更准确、可靠,具有一定的实用意义及推广价值。     

Waterlogging and flood hazards vulnerability and risk assessment in Indo Gangetic plain

The recurrent flooding during monsoon and subsequent waterlogging in the northern Bihar plains and the magnitude of losses due to these hazards indicate the continuing vulnerability of the region to flood and waterlogging. Management of floods and waterlogging hazards in highly flood-prone regions of India, including Bihar state has been largely response oriented with little or no attention to mitigation and preparedness. This paper presents a method for spatial, Geographic Information Systems-based assessment of flood and waterlogging vulnerability and risk in northern Bihar plains. Multitemporal satellite data was used to evaluate the area statistics and dynamics of waterlogging over the period from 1975 to 2008. The flood proneness is evaluated at district level with reference to flood inundation during a period from 1998 to 2008. Census data were used to examine the socio-economic characteristics of the region through computation of population density, cultivators, agricultural labourers, sex ratio, children in age group 0–6 years and literates. The geohazard map derived by combining area prone to waterlogging and flood inundation was multiplied with socio-economic vulnerability map to derive the flood-waterlogging risk map of the region. The result shows that flood and water-logging pose highest risk to the central districts in the northern Bihar plains with 50.95% of the total area under high and very high risk.     

天津市沿海涉海工程的自然灾害风险分析

随着我国经济发展和基础设施投资力度的加大,沿海大型工程项目朝着综合化、专业化、复杂化方向发展。由于工程项目本身具有特殊性及其对市场、社会依赖性等特点,使得沿海项目发生灾害不确定因素增加,风险复杂化、扩大化较为明显。本文系统分析天津沿海海洋灾害特征,结合沿海项目分布、类型,提出天津市沿海涉海项目灾害排查方案及应急预案,应急预案应主要考虑的问题有工程危险源性质、类型与布局;灾害事故的类型及规模;灾害风险等级划分;一旦发生灾害应急管理及处理;灾害发生后的监测、治理与管理;为了灾害应急预案可操作性,还应实施重大危险源电子地图信息管理系统建设。     

冰湖溃决灾害风险研究进展及其展望

系统回顾了国内外冰湖溃决灾害风险研究现状,结果显示,以往冰湖溃决灾害风险评估研究过多集中于冰湖溃决致灾诱因、特征,溃决危险性评价和溃决概率预测以及溃决洪峰流量及其演进模拟研究等自然风险方面,而承灾区经济社会系统脆弱性、暴露性和适应性风险研究却较为缺乏。因此,开展冰湖溃决灾害综合风险研究,不仅对冰湖溃决危险性评价意义重大,而且对于下游承灾区防灾减灾和预警体系建立也具有重要的理论参考价值。     

Vulnerability assessment for the Gaza Strip, Palestine using DRASTIC

The main usefulness of groundwater vulnerability assessment maps is their ability to be an effective preliminary tool for planning, policy, and operational levels of decision-making. DRASTIC is one such assessment method. The DRASTIC index is made up of a calculated sum of products rating and weights for seven hydrogeological parameters that contribute to aquifer vulnerability. With the help of GIS, and based on the available data, maps of DRASTIC parameters were prepared for the Gaza Strip area in a case study. Each map was given a proper rate and a special weight factor developed. The final vulnerability map was obtained as a summation of the seven maps after multiplying each one with the appropriate weight. The vulnerability map was checked against the actual pollution potential in the area and nitrate concentration. The obtained vulnerability map is strongly correlated to known pollution values in the area.     

安徽黄山市徽州区地质灾害危险性评价研究

皖南山区是安徽省地质灾害高发区域。本文选取黄山市徽州区为研究区,根据区内地形地貌和地质构造特点,选取了高程、坡度、坡向、断裂构造、水系、土地覆盖类型、工程地质岩组、人类活动强度等8项致灾因子作为地质灾害危险性评价指标。结合地质灾害野外实地调查成果,采用信息量模型法对研究区进行地质灾害危险性评价,探索建立适合皖南山区的地质灾害危险性评价模型。     

Natural hazards in the Bavarian Alps: a historical approach to risk assessment

The Bavarian Alps region is strongly affected by various natural hazards, mainly hydrological events (floods, debris flows), geomorphic/geological events (landslides, rock falls), and avalanches. Extraordinary floods, like in 2002 or in the summer of 2005 in south Bavaria, have again posed the question of the possible extent and frequency of recurrence of catastrophic events. To put risk assessment on a broader basis historical data about all kinds of past natural hazards were detected in the archives of local authorities and administrative offices for water management. More than 10,000 sources (written accounts, maps, and photographs) were collated in a database. The majority of this information reaches back to the middle of the 19th century. In addition, many documents referring to events dating back even as far as the middle age were found. The Historische Analyse von NaturGefahren (HANG, historical analysis of natural hazards) project at the University of Eichstaett mainly focuses on a small-scale examination of the data. Initial results of the data analysis show that most catastrophic events in the Bavarian Alps only affect parts of the area, but not the whole region. Therefore it is necessary to assess the risk potential on a local scale like valleys, the catchment areas of mountain streams, or even single streams. Firstly the presented data is aimed to help engineers in future planning of hazard-protection measures. Secondly the information can form a vital component to enhance our knowledge of hydrological and geomorphic/geological dynamics in the Alps.     

Vulnerability assessment in a volcanic risk evaluation in Central Mexico through a multi-criteria-GIS approach

The Valley of Toluca is a major industrial and agricultural area in Central Mexico, especially the City of Toluca, the capital of The State of Mexico. The Nevado de Toluca volcano is located to the southwest of The Toluca Basin. Results obtained from the vulnerability assessment phase of the study area (5,040 km² and 42 municipalities) are presented here as a part of a comprehensive volcanic risk assessment of The Toluca Basin. Information has been gathered and processed at a municipal level including thematic maps at 1:250,000 scale. A database has been built, classified and analyzed within a GIS environment; additionally, a Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) approach was applied as an aid for the decision-making process. Cartographic results were five vulnerability maps: (1) Total Population, (2) Land Use/Cover, (3) Infrastructure, (4) Economic Units and (5) Total Vulnerability. Our main results suggest that the Toluca and Tianguistenco urban and industrial areas, to the north and northeast of The Valley of Toluca, are the most vulnerable areas, for their high concentration of population, infrastructure, economic activity, and exposure to volcanic events.     

The risk assessment of landslide hazards in Shiwangmiao based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets-Topsis model

The landslide hazard is one of the geological hazards in mountainous zone. Its occurrence is controlled by many factors. To assess the risk level of landslide in Shiwangmiao accurately, intuitionistic fuzzy sets-Topsis model is introduced at first; secondly, the decisive matrix about the intuitionistic fuzzy sets is established, and the index weight coefficients considering the uncertainty of assessment indices are determined by using the Entropy weight method, then the weighed decisive matrix is obtained. Finally, degree of membership at different levels about the landslide is determined based on the ranking sequence of degree of membership, the risk level corresponding to the maximum degree of membership is final assessment level. The conclusions are drawn that accurate rate of risk estimation about landslide hazards is very high based on the intuitionistic fuzzy sets model in comparison with the current specifications, and the method is feasible for the risk assessment of landslide hazards, so it provides a new method and thoughts to assess the risk level of landslide in future.

     

GIS技术在四川省九龙县地质灾害危险性评价中的应用

文章结合九龙县地质灾害调查与区划项目,在对全县地质灾害特征和影响因素调查基础上,探讨了GIS技术在九龙县地质灾害危险性评价中的应用,描述了GIS图形处理和空间分析功能支持下的地质灾害危险性评价思路,并介绍了评价因子选取、栅格单元划分、结果评价等问题。分析结果表明,将GIS技术应用于九龙县地质灾害危险性评价中可以提高评价效率和准确性,评价效果较好。     

Geologic hazards assessment of Cairo and vicinity

The greater area from Cairo to west of Suez and a smaller area directly around Cairo are subjected to general and detailed analysis of hazard due to geological fractures. Fracture density contour maps and rose diagrams of the fracture trends are provided. Possible natural geologic hazards which might affect the area are discussed. These include landslides, block failure, earthquakes, maars, fumarolic activity, hot springs, caves and possible rejuvenation of old fault systems.