滇西北地区潜在震源区的划分原则和方法

在收集、分析前人研究成果的基础上,参考近年来多次工程场地地震安全性评价的野外调查与分析结果,确定了滇西北及其邻区的地震构造标志,进而在该地区重新划分潜在震源区。在有强震发生的地区依地震重复原则划分潜在震源区并确定其震级上限;对于发震构造明显但没有强震记录的地区,根据发震构造规模和活动性特征,依构造类比原则划分潜在震源区;对于活动断裂分段性研究较为清楚的地方,潜在震源区被划分得更细一些;而在断裂隐伏区,则依据地震活动图像及地球物理异常判断潜在源震区的长轴方向     

郯庐断裂带的活断层分段与潜在震源区的划分

近年来我们在一些工程地震工作中,认为活断层分段在潜在震源区判定中具有举足轻重的作用。一个科学的、有依据的潜在震源区当能客观地反映构造活动特性和地震活动参数。活断层分段,应给出潜在震源区的边界条件及某些参数。应强调活断展与障碍构造的演化和发育,强调活断层自身的风格和特点:如不同的构造类型;断裂几何学、力学和运动学特点,活动量和活动速率;活动时代;横断层的存在及历史强震和古地震的活动等等。以郯庐断裂为例,在实际工作中,把断层进行四级划分可达到和满足潜在震源区的需要,并具有重要意义。     

考虑断层震源的南天山一帕米尔地区地震危险性模型协调统一研究

分析中亚—中东地震危险性模型和中国模型在南天山—帕米尔地区的地震危险性模型特点,重新划分面源潜在震源区,重新确定新潜源的地震活动性参数.使用南天山—帕米尔地区的断层资料建立了断层震源模型,并计算断层震源的地震活动性参数.将面源和断层源结合,使用协调后的模型计算该地区的地震危险性.研究表明,使用断层源模型后,帕米尔高原几...     

论发震构造特性在潜在震源区参数确定中的应用

发震构造特性是潜在震源区划分及其地震年发生率确定的重要依据。潜在震源区除了反映“未来具有发生破坏性地震的地区”的内涵外,还应反映高震级档地震具有相似复发特征的涵义。由于在地震活动性参数统计单元内,有一些具有不同本底地震的活动构造块体,为更好地反映地震活动的空间不均匀性,考虑潜在震源区的三级划分是有必要的。通过分析潜在震源区内高震级档地震的复发特征,计算预测时段内潜在震源区的高震级档地震的发震概率,采用预测时段内概率等效转换获得地震年平均发生率的方法,有助于在中国地震危险性分析框架内考虑潜在震源区的强震复发特性。另外,文中还对潜在震源区内特征地震次级震级档频度不足的特性和发震构造上强震非均匀性在地震危险性分析中的应用问题进行了探讨     

山东某场地概率地震危险性分析

利用概率地震危险性分析(CPSHA)方法,对山东某场地进行地震危险性分析,通过对该场地划分潜在震源区,确定地震活动性参数及地震动衰减关系,计算分析地震危险性概率,基本确定对该场地地震动峰值加速度起主要贡献的几个潜在震源区及贡献值,并确定该场地50年超越概率10%的水平向基岩地震动加速度峰值。结果发现,CPSHA方法以具体的构造尺度和更加细致的构造标志来划分潜在震源区,使潜在震源区规模缩减,从而更能反映地震活动在空间分布上的不均匀性。     

在判定潜在震源区中活断层资料的作用(英文)

在潜在震源区及其地震活动性参数的确定中,地震活动性分析和构造条件的类比一直是比较重要的方法,但对活断层资料的应用却显得不够充分。本文通过对活断层所能提供的各种信息所做的分析和讨论,阐述了在判定潜在震源区中活断层资料在三个方面所起的作用。1、潜在震源区范围的确定;2、潜在震源区震级上限的确定;3、大震复发周期的判定。     

新版地震区划图地震活动性模型与参数确定

地震活动性模型和地震动预测模型是概率地震危险性分析的两个核心。在新版地震区划图中,依据板内地震活动空间不均匀性分布的特点,在概率地震危险性分析方法(CPSHA)中采用了由地震统计区、背景潜在震源区和构造潜在震源区构成的三级层次性潜在震源区模型,并构建了相应的地震活动性模型。本文在论述CPSHA方法及其地震活动性模型基本概念的基础上,重点介绍了新版地震区划图地震活动性模型的三级潜在震源区模型的构成、地震活动性假定和基本特点,同时,也对新版地震区划图地震活动性模型的重要参数确定思路、方法与结果进行了介绍。本文将为更好地认识与理解我国新版地震动参数区划图提供有益的参考。     

攀西地区地震动参数区划图的编制

利用“八五”和“九五”期间取得的新资料，新成果，研究了我国西南地区的地震构造环境，地震活动性，划分了地震区带及潜在震源区，确定了地震活动性参数和地震动衰减关系，用多参数，多方案方法编制了攀西地区地震动参数区划图。     

乌鲁木齐市未来十年的震害预测及减灾对策

采用多因子综合概率法估计了乌鲁木齐市区及矿区的地震危险性。根据地震地质、地球物理场,地震活动性的研究,划分了潜在震源区,确定了震源区的地震活动性参数。应用以结构可靠度理论为基础的震损概率法,预测了乌鲁木齐的地震灾害。提出了减灾对策。     

大青山山前活动断裂带分段与潜在震源区划分

潜在震源区的划分主要包括潜在震源区范围的划定以及震级上限的确定,目前遵循地震构造类比和地震活动重复等原则。而活断层的分段特性也是潜在震源区划分时必须考虑的一个重要因素。大青山山前断裂带至今有3种不同的分段方案,文中比较分析了前人对大青山山前断裂带的分段,并在此基础上对大青山及山前盆地的潜在震源区作了新的划分。鄂尔多斯块体周缘被拉张性断陷盆地围绕,这些断裂系地震构造相似,且除呼包盆地外均有历史8级以上地震记录。文中将大青山山前断裂带与鄂尔多斯块体周缘断裂系进行了构造对比,特别是与华山山前断裂进行了断裂活动性定量对比,得出雪海沟到土左旗段的震级上限为8级,断裂两端潜源震级上限均为7.5级     

Seismotectonic Study on the West Part of the Interaction Zone Between Southern Tianshan and Northern Tarim

The interaction zone between southern Tianshan and northern Tarim is located at the northeast side of Pamir. It is a region with high seismicity. We constructed a seismotectonic model for the west part of this zone from geological profiles, deep crust seismic detection and earthquake focal mechanisms data. Based on the synthesized geological features, deep crust structure, and earthquake focal mechanisms, we think that the main regional tectonic feature is that the Tianshan tecto-lithostratigraphic unit overthrusts on the Tarim block. The Tianshan tectonic system includes the Maidan fault and thrust sheets in front of the fault; The Tarim tectonic system includes the underground northern Tarim margin fault, conjugate faults in basement and overthrust fault in shallow. The northern Tarim margin fault is a high angle fault deep in the Tarim crust, adjusting different trending deformation between Tianshan and Tarim. It is a major active fault that can generate large earthquakes. The other faults, such as the Tianshan overthrust system and the Tarim basement faults in this area may generate moderately strong earthquakes with different styles.     

天山地震带主要活动断层现今的滑动速率及其地震矩亏损

文中收集了1999—2015年天山地震带及其周边地区的GNSS数据,计算得到了速度场结果,并利用弹性块体模型计算了研究区域内各块体的闭锁深度和主要断层的滑动速率.研究结果表明:南天山断裂带西段的迈丹断裂的缩短速率处于高值状态,达(-6.3±1.9)mm/a,高于南天山东段;北天山断裂带西段的缩短速率同样高于东段.利用主...     

基于特大地震发生率的川滇地区地震危险性预测新模型

川滇地区是我国地震危险性较高的地区之一.本文基于对特大强震的风险性考虑,使用全球地震模型OpenQuake软件,建立了川滇地区地震危险性预测新模型.首先根据构造特征划分多个震源分区,并整理出这些震源分区内断层活动特征与滑动速率;基于震源分区和断层模型,使用GPS应变率转换成的锥形古登堡-里克特关系作为整个区域的地震积累率,并允许超过历史最大震级的特大地震的出现,结合活动断层滑动速率所积累的地震发生率,给出震源分区内断层地震源和背景地震源的地震发生率的比率分配关系;在活动断层分段上,保留了大型断裂或其主要部分,没有根据小的阶区来对断层进行详细分段,以便分配特大地震发生率;并使用地震率平滑方法分配背景地震发生率.最后在OpenQuake中加入地震动预测方程,计算出了川滇地区的PGA分布图,为区域地震危险性提供科学依据.

     

天山地区地震地质概况

根据整个天山及山前地带的地质构造和地震活动资料,初步研究和划分对天山及邻区的深层构造轮廓、地质构造格架、第四纪以来构造运动的阶段、幅度和速率,天山活动构造,主要活断层,并讨论它们与地震活动的关系。     

龙泉山断裂带地震活动性浅析

通过对龙泉山断裂带东坡断裂和西坡断裂的地震活动性研究,表明该带是一条活断层。历史地震记载和现今地震活动均呈现沿断裂带分布,地震活动呈现周期性和南北跳迁的特点,近10年来地震监测资料表明该带地震活动在增强。     

南天山及塔里木北缘构造带西段地震构造研究

南天山及塔里木北缘构造带位于帕米尔地区东北侧,地震活动强烈。文中通过地质构造剖面、深部探测资料和地震震源机制解资料,综合研究了该区的地震构造模型。结果认为,该区的构造活动主要表现为天山地块逆冲于塔里木地块之上。天山构造系统包括迈丹断裂及其前缘推覆构造;塔里木构造系统包括深部的塔里木北缘断裂、基底共轭断层和浅部的推覆构造。塔里木北缘断裂是发育于塔里木地壳内部的高角度断裂,其形成原因在于塔里木和天山构造变形方向的差异。塔里木北缘断裂为研究区大地震的主要发震构造,天山推覆构造和塔里木基底断裂系统均具有不同性质的中强地震发震能力     

The genesis of seismic activity on faults in Central Asia in real time and its variations

We used the Digital Faults geoinformation system that we developed to propose an algorithm for quantitative estimation of seismic activity on faults. The resulting technique was used to study the spatiotemporal patterns in the present-day activity of faults in Central Asia. Fault activity was found to vary at frequencies of a few years and cannot be explained by changes in the regional stress fields. We studied the tendency of seismic events to be localized to areas of dynamic influence due to faults. The active faults were grouped by the criteria of seismicity organization in the influence areas of these faults. It was shown that fault activity and its comparatively high frequency on real time scales are caused by strain waves, which may be generated by interplate and interblock movements in the brittle lithosphere. Judging by the speed of strain waves, the active faults are classified into groups that differ in their geological and geophysical parameters. They can be used to estimate the directions of strain wave fronts and to identify areas of dominant fault activation over intervals of real (geologically speaking) time. We give a map showing active faults in Central Asia, plots of a quantitative index of their seismic activity, and the directivity vectors of strain waves that excite fault activity. The methods we developed for classifying active faults by the quantitative index of seismic activity and for determining the vectors of strain waves that excite fault activity are all tools that significantly expand our possibilities when developing tectonophysical models of the seismic process in earthquake-generating zones of the lithosphere and open new methods for attacking problems in intermediate-term earthquake prediction.     

Active faults and seismogenic models for the Urumqi city,Xinjiang Autonomous Region,China

We have studied the characteristics of the active faults and seismicity in the vicinity of Urumqi city, the capital of Xinjiang Autonomous Region, China, and have proposed a seismogenic model for the assessment of earthquake hazard in this area. Our work is based on an integrated analysis of data from investigations of active faults at the surface, deep seismic reflection soundings,seismic profiles from petroleum exploration, observations of temporal seismic stations, and the precise location of small earthquakes. We have made a comparative study of typical seismogenic structures in the frontal area of the North Tianshan Mountains, where Urumqi city is situated,and have revealed the primary features of the thrust-foldnappe structure there. We suggest that Urumqi city is comprised two zones of seismotectonics which are interpreted as thrust-nappe structures. The first is the thrust nappe of the North Tianshan Mountains in the west, consisting of the lower(root) thrust fault, middle detachment,and upper fold-uplift at the front. Faults active in the Pleistocene are present in the lower and upper parts of this structure, and the detachment in the middle spreads toward the north. In the future, M7 earthquakes may occur at the root thrust fault, while the seismic risk of frontal fold-uplift at the front will not exceed M6.5. The second structure is the western flank of the arc-like Bogda nappe in the east,which is also comprised a root thrust fault, middle detachment, and upper fold-uplift at the front, of which the nappe stretches toward the north; several active faults are also developed in it. The fault active in the Holocene is called the South Fukang fault. It is not in the urban area of Urumqi city. The other three faults are located in the urban area and were active in the late Pleistocene. In these cases,this section of the nappe structure near the city has an earthquake risk of M6.5–7. An earthquake M_S6.6, 60 km east to Urumqi city occurred along the structure in 1965.     

Neotectonics and associate seismicity in the Eastern Tellian Atlas of Algeria

Seismicity in the Eastern Tellian Atlas of Algeria is active of moderate to low magnitude. The direct identification of active fault is often a difficult task. In fact, in this region, despite the intense seismicity, only the Constantine earthquake of 27 October, 1985 ( M s = 5.7) and the Kherrata earthquake of 17 February, 1949 ( M s = 4.7), have generated surface ruptures. Hence, the integration of both geological, historical and instrumental seismic data are important in order to characterise the most important seismogenic structures. This paper presents a preliminary overview of the identified neotectonic faults that we consider active in the Eastern Tellian Atlas of Algeria. Thus, seismicity and neotectonic maps are presented and the faults which are active or potentially active from a neotectonic point of view are shown in relation with the main seismic groupings. This study based mainly on available seismic and bibliographic data and several unpublished marine seismic data enable us to suspect a fault as the eventual source of the Jijeli earthquake of 21 August 1856 that destroyed the Jijeli town and its surroundings. The results inferred from this work represent a starting point for more detailed studies in seismogenic areas.     

Spatial Separation of Large Earthquakes, Aftershocks, and Background Seismicity: Analysis of Interseismic and Coseismic Seismicity Patterns in Southern California

We associate waveform-relocated background seismicity and aftershocks with the 3-D shapes of late Quaternary fault zones in southern California. Major earthquakes that can slip more than several meters, aftershocks, and near-fault background seismicity mostly rupture different surfaces within these fault zones. Major earthquakes rupture along the mapped traces of the late Quaternary faults, called the principal slip zones (PSZs). Aftershocks occur either on or in the immediate vicinity of the PSZs, typically within zones that are ??2-km wide. In contrast, the near-fault background seismicity is mostly accommodated on a secondary heterogeneous network of small slip surfaces, and forms spatially decaying distributions extending out to distances of ??10?km from the PSZs. We call the regions where the enhanced rate of background seismicity occurs, the seismic damage zones. One possible explanation for the presence of the seismic damage zones and associated seismicity is that the damage develops as faults accommodate bends and geometrical irregularities in the PSZs. The seismic damage zones mature and reach their finite width early in the history of a fault, during the first few kilometers of cumulative offset. Alternatively, the similarity in width of seismic damage zones suggests that most fault zones are of almost equal strength, although the amount of cumulative offset varies widely. It may also depend on the strength of the fault zone, the time since the last major earthquake as well as other parameters. In addition, the seismic productivity appears to be influenced by the crustal structure and heat flow, with more extensive fault networks in regions of thin crust and high heat flow.