基于灰色理论的西藏暴雨洪涝预测

以西藏38个气象站点1985-2014年实测降水量为基础数据,应用灰色预测模型和长序列趋势拟合方法预测2015-2019年的年降水量和季节降水量,经2015-2017年的实测降水数据验证,其结果良好,最后以调整后的降水距平百分率为洪涝指标,分析2018年、2019年的洪涝预测情况。结果表明,西藏2018年降水集中在东南部地区的林芝、米林、波密和察隅一带, 2019年降水主要集中在芒康地区,季节上春季降水主要集中在雅鲁藏布江大拐弯地区,夏季主要在索曲河、怒江上游地区,秋季主要在嘉黎、林芝、波密一带,冬季降水集中在聂拉木地区。2018年和2019年洪涝易发生在春季和冬季,洪涝情况都相对正常,大部分县区为无涝或正常状态,少数县区为轻微洪涝,极少数县区为中涝或特涝, 2019年洪涝情况相较于2018年整体偏多,其中在2018年的拉孜县和2019年的拉萨城关区,极有可能出现特涝灾害。     

近40a来江河源区生态环境变化的气候特征分析

利用月气象资料,对过去40a江河源气候变化特征进行分析,并与全球、全国、青藏高原进行了比较.结果表明:江河源区气温具有增暖趋势,近40a两地年平均气温分别增加约0.8℃和0.7℃,为高原异常变暖区.黄河源区变暖的主要特征是最低气温变暖,日照时数增加;最低、最高气温的显著变暖,以及较黄河源区增加更长的日照时数是长江源区变暖的主要特征.长江源区冬季变暖的作用不是主要的,春季、夏季和秋季的变暖作用比冬季还要大;黄河源区的变暖也并不主要是冬季变暖造成的,秋季变暖的作用与其相当,其它季节的变暖作用也不能忽视.近40a来江河源区降水量略有增加,主要体现在20世纪80年代中后期以来春季与冬季降水量的明显增加,夏季降水量虽然总体上没有明显变化,且局地夏季降水量呈持续减少趋势.与全球、全国以及高原区对比显示,江河源区对全球气候变暖的响应最敏感,变暖首先从长江源和整个高原发端,之后15a.黄河源和全国才进入显著温暖期.黄河源与长江源北部降水量的增加表明,气候变暖有利于高原增加降水量.     

安徽宁国地区岩-土系统元素迁移及其农业地质环境效应

通过多条基岩-土壤剖面和区域性土壤地球化学样品的微量元素丰度测试,分析了宁国地区不同基岩类型地球化学元素在岩石和土壤中分布的基本特点,表明同一地层的岩-土系统在不同地点有基本相同的元素迁移规律,导致土壤中的微量元素分布特征受控于其下地质单位的空间分布,植物生长必需的微量营养元素Fe、Mn、Cu、Mo、Zn、B6种元素表现出在南华纪-寒武纪地层中向土壤强烈富集的趋势．岩-土系统元素迁移特点对宁国市天目山区重要名优特产品-山核桃的生长环境产生重要影响,该区主导性名特优产品-山核桃,应该选择南沱组、兰田组、杨柳岗组、华严寺组、西阳山组等地层出露的地段种植才能产生好的经济效益．     

大同煤田北部中侏罗统煤中伴生元素分布特征及其地质意义

为研究大同煤田中侏罗统煤中伴生元素地球化学特征及地质意义,应用电感耦合等离子体质谱（ICP-MS）、X射线衍射法（XRD）、光学电子显微镜和扫描电子显微镜（SEM）等测试方法分析煤田北部9个煤层中伴生元素含量和赋存特征。结果表明:煤中微量元素含量低,其有益元素（Li、Ga）含量均远低于边界品位,不具伴生成矿开发潜力,但2号煤中Co与Zn、9号煤中Tl和11-2号煤中Be等有害元素较为富集,是世界煤平均值的3倍以上,其环境影响值得关注。煤中主要矿物是高岭石与石英,高岭石主要充填在结构镜质体中,指示其同生成因,石英往往具有很好的晶型,指示其自生成因;少量的黄铁矿和方解石充填在显微裂隙中,指示其后生成因;磷灰石与有机质结合。煤中微量元素Ni和Mo可能主要以有机质结合态存在,其他元素主要赋存在无机矿物中,Si主要以石英形式存在,部分Si和Al以及Li、Cr、Ga和Nb存于黏土矿物中,Fe和Mn以及Cd、Zn、Tl赋存于黄铁矿中;Ca和Mg以及Co主要赋存在碳酸盐矿物中;P、Be、Sr和Ba可能存在磷灰石中;Rb赋存在石盐类矿物中。垂向上看,大同组存在2个沉积旋回,每个沉积旋回由下至上,水动力条件逐渐降低,水体由浅到深,陆源碎屑供给越来越少,这2个旋回间可能经历了较强的地质作用。总体看,在成煤期,随沉积作用的进行,聚煤盆地中碎屑物质输入逐渐减少,活性物质逐渐增加。      

Groundwater salinity in Greve, Denmark: determining the source from historical data

Elevated salinity in groundwater (over 250?mg/l chloride) in a fractured chalk aquifer in the municipality of Greve, Denmark, has been attributed to seawater intrusion from the Baltic Sea, resulting in the closure of a number of wells nearest to the coastline. However, a recent study in eastern Denmark shows that the salinity could also be from ancient connate pore waters. Historical chemistry data from bulk-water samples collected from wells have been used to determine the source. The sample data were studied with respect to their historical changes and temporal trends in chloride, carbonate, sulfate, sodium, potassium, magnesium, and calcium. Wells in the southern third of the municipality are relatively low in sodium and carbonate and high in chloride and calcium/magnesium, indicating waters undergoing saline intrusion. Wells in the northern two-thirds of the municipality are high in carbonate and sodium, but low in chloride and calcium/magnesium, indicating a freshening of the aquifer. This is confirmed by the temporal trends in chloride, where chloride levels in the northern wells remain constant, whereas in the south, chloride increases as abstraction continues. Therefore close monitoring for seawater intrusion should be conducted in the southern third of the municipality.     

西南三江新生代矿集区的分布格局及找矿前景

西南三江地区是我国最重要的新生代成矿区（带）,其中分布着一系列各具特色的矿集区,如以铜多金属为主（玉龙）,以铅锌为主（金顶）,以稀土为主（牦牛坪）,以金为主（哀牢山）等等。研究中在对这些矿集区的基本特点进行归纳的基础上,探讨了矿集区分布的基本格局（即两横两纵两斜加一点）及其构造背景,认为进入新生代以来,中国经历了“东降西隆”的构造大反转,而三江正好位于枢纽部位,地壳块体水平方向强烈的挤压和垂直方向活跃的运动可能是制约三江地区地质构造和成矿格局的主要原因。在此基础上,提出了3个可以扩大远景的矿集区和3个潜在的矿集区,进一步探讨其新的找矿方向。     

Neotectonic evolution of the Tarim Basin Craton from Neogene to quaternary

The Tarim Basin Craton is located in the center of the Tarim Basin. Since the beginning of the Miocene, the tectonic activity has been weaker in the Tarim Basin Craton than in the marginal depression and the peripheral orogenic belts. This study investigates the tectonic movements in the Tarim Basin Craton by calculating the sedimentation rates and constructing balanced cross-sections based on well, seismic and geologic data. The tectonic movements in the Tarim Basin Craton have mainly been revealed by geological processes such as sedimentation and subsidence, structural inversion, changes in the structural feature, migration of the structural highs, and faulting. The Neogene sedimentary strata were mainly deposited in two sedimentation centers, the southern and northern sedimentation centers, and the strata in the Central Uplift Zone are relatively thin. The different depressions in different geological periods experienced wide variations in tectonic activity. Tectonic subsidence was significant and the sedimentation rates were high in the Tarim Basin Craton during the Pliocene Period (phase II). During the Neotectonic period, the stresses in the South-North direction converged in the Central Uplift Zone (the Bachu uplift–Central Tarim uplift), and the tectonic activity in this region was more intense than that in the Northern Depression and the Maigaiti Slope in the southwest. In addition, the scale of the paleo-uplift, including paleo-North Tarim Uplift and paleo-Central Uplift Zone, gradually decreased. The faults and fault systems developed zonationally in Neotectonic formations in different structural units, and always distributed discontinuously in vertical direction in sections.     

湖北省矿产资源与经济可持续发展

湖北省矿产资源丰富,具有矿产种类多、规模大、分布相对集中、供（伴）生矿多、部分大宗能源和急需矿产资源不足的特点。其中探明储量丰富,能满足经济发展需要,保证程度高的矿产资源有磷矿、岩盐、石膏、石灰岩、饰面石材等;储量较多,多经济发展需求大,保证程度不高的矿产资源为铁、铜等;储量少,保证程度差,社会发展需求量大的是煤、石油、天然气等能源资源,矿业经济已在湖北省经济发展中起着重要。同时,矿业活动也带来了     

The evolution of the Huangling uplift and its control on the accumulation and preservation of shale gas

There are plenty of Sinian and Cambrian potential shale gas resources in South China, which is characterized by high thermal evolution degrees, poor drilling performances and only occurs in local areas. Taking the principle “high to find low” is the key issue to achieving a breakthrough in older shale. China Geological Survey drilled in the periphery of the Proterozoic basement, i.e. the Huangling anticline, in the western Hubei, and Hannan paleocontinent in the southern Shanxi. It received high-quality gas-bearing shale with relatively low Ro in the in Lower Cambrian Niutitang formation and Sinian Doushantuo formation. Based on geological conditions of shale gas reservoirs in the Huangling anticline, this paper puts forward the new model named “Control over reservoirs by periphery of basement” about shale gas accumulation, suggesting that the shale deposited in a deepwater continental shelf in the periphery of the basement is characterized by shallow burial, a short burial time, stable tectonics, relatively low thermal evolution degrees, and shale gas reservoirs in a good condition. The shale of the Sinian-Cambrian strata deposited in deepwater continental shelves in the periphery of Chuanzhong paleo-uplift in Sichuan, Hannan paleocontinent in the southern Shanxi, Huangling anticline in western Hubei and Jiangnang-Xuefeng paleo-uplift in Hunan and Guizhou province have good shale gas exploration potential.     

渗流对多年冻土区路基温度场影响的数值模拟

运用传热学理论和渗流理论导出了路堤侧向有地表积水入渗情形下,多年冻土区路基温度场渗流场耦合作用的控制微分方程,然后以现场观测资料为基础,用Ｇａｌｅｒｋｉｎ有限元方法对青康公路（２１４国道）花石峡冻土研究站１号试验路段路基温度场未来可能的变化状态进行了数值预报。结果表明,若无渗流作用,５ａ后路堤左侧天然地表、路堤堤身和路堤右侧天然地表的最大季节融深分别为１．４ｍ,３．２ｍ和１．４ｍ;若有渗流作用,则     

中国矽卡岩矿床找矿新进展和时空分布规律

近年来,中国矽卡岩矿床找矿取得了很大的新进展:西藏冈底斯成矿带和班公湖-怒江成矿带发现和探明了十余个大中型矽卡岩铜、金多金属矿床;在青海西部祁漫塔格成矿带发现和探明了不少铁多金属矽卡岩矿床;在东部地区发现和探明了一批大型隐伏的矽卡岩矿床,如河北白涧铁矿床、江西朱溪钨多金属矿床、湖南锡田锡钨矿床、福建上房钨矿床等。在新疆西天山发现和探明了一批大(中)型与火山-侵入活动有关的矽卡岩铁矿床。另外,在新疆发现白干湖、沙沟等大型钨矿床,在甘肃也发现和探明了大型钨矿床。学者们对上述矿床进行了较详细的研究。中国主要矽卡岩矿床最新同位素测年资料表明,矽卡岩矿床的生成时代从元古宙、古生代、中生代到新生代都有,但最重要的成岩成矿期是中生代的燕山期。在空间分布上,赵一鸣等(1990)曾划分出14个重要的矽卡岩成矿带,通过广大地质工作者的努力,在西藏、新疆和青海等省(区)找矿工作的重大进展,又新增4个矽卡岩成矿带,即西藏冈底斯成矿带、班公湖-怒江成矿带、青海祁漫塔格成矿带和新疆西天山成矿带。     

Effects of heavy metal pollution on farmland soils and crops: A case study of the Xiaoqinling Gold Belt,China

This paper focuses on the heavy metal enrichment and heavy metal pollution degree associated with mining activities in some crops and the soils of different parent materials in the Xiaoqinling Gold Belt. According to the geochemical analysis results of the soils observed in the gold belt, the soils are most highly enriched in Pb, followed by Cr, Cu, and Zn. Furthermore, they are relatively poor in Hg, Cd, and As. It is also shown that the heavy metals in all kinds of soils have the same geochemical characteristics in the gold belt. As for the crops (such as corn and wheat) in the gold belt, Zn and Cu are the most abundant elements, followed by Pb and Cr. Meanwhile, Hg, Cd, and As were found to have relatively low concentrations in the crops. The heavy metals in wheat and corn have the same geochemical characteristics in the gold belt in general. Compared to the aeolian loess soils and the crops therein, heavy metals are more enriched in diluvial and alluvial soils and the crops therein. As shown by relevant studies, the Hg, Pb, Cd, Cu, and Zn pollution are mainly caused by mining activities. Corn and wheat in the gold belt have a high tendency of risk exposure to heavy metal pollution since they are mostly affected by mining activities and feature high background values of heavy metal concentrations. Furthermore, wheat is more liable to be enriched in heavy metals than corn is grown in all types of soils. The Hg pollution in soils leads to Hg accumulation, increasing the risk of Hg uptake in crops, and further affecting human health. This study will provide a scientific basis for the control and management of heavy metals in farmland soils of mining areas.     

典型喀斯特地区马尾松纯林及马尾松-阔叶树混交林营养元素生物循环研究——以贵州龙里为例

以龙里典型喀斯特地区马尾松纯林及马尾松- 阔叶树混交林为研究对象,研究了两个群落的生物量、营养元素贮量、分布及循环特征。结果表明: 马尾松纯林、马尾松- 阔叶树混交林的生物量分别为40. 62t /hm2、48. 32t /hm2 ,混交林的乔木层总生物量比马尾松纯林高18. 97% ,根系生物量较纯林高65. 12%。混交林乔木层各器官营养元素的含量整体大于马尾松纯林,两群落乔木层N、P、K、S的含量表现出一致的趋势,叶> 根> 枝> 干。混交林乔木层各元素的积累量分别比纯林高47. 97%～ 197. 67% ,凋落物层各元素贮量比纯林高85. 40%～ 318. 301%。混交林的年归还量、年存留量和年吸收量均大于马尾松纯林,且各元素循环系数大于马尾松纯林。马尾松林与阔叶树混交可以有效地提高群落生物量和营养元素循环的能力。      

西北地区铝土矿成矿规律概论

西北地区铝土矿均为碳酸盐岩古风化壳沉积型,其主要矿床式有：新疆阿依里式,分布于塔里木地块北缘西段,形成于晚石炭世;陕西天桥则式,分布于鄂尔多斯地块的东缘北段、南缘东段,形成于晚石炭世;甘肃大台子式,分布于鄂尔多斯地块的西缘南段,形成于早二叠世;陕西关坪式,分布于扬子地块北缘,形成于中二叠世。对比分析表明,西北已知有铝土...     

典型铜镍矿区周围环境介质中重金属及其化学形态分布特征

重金属污染是金属矿山开采和冶炼所引起的主要环境问题。对甘肃省典型矿业城市金昌市周围农田土壤、废渣堆表面风化物及降尘、尾矿坝尾矿砂和尾矿坝旁排污沟沉积物中Cr、Cu、Ni、Pb、Zn含量及其化学形态进行分析。结果表明:不同区域环境中重金属呈现不同程度累积,其中以Cu、Ni最为显著,含量由高到低依次为尾矿坝排污沟>尾矿坝>废渣堆>农田土壤;尾矿砂和沉积物中重金属分布以Ni含量显著高于Cu含量为特征;而农田土壤和风化物及降尘中重金属分布以Cu含量高于Ni含量为特征,前者Cu、Ni主要来源于尾矿,后者与冶炼烟尘排放有很大关系;样品中除Cr、Zn以残渣态为主外,Cu、Ni、Pb化学形态分布有较大差异,Cu以可氧化态和残渣态为主,Ni以可还原态为主,其次为弱酸提取态,Pb以可还原态为主,其次为残渣态。土壤理化性质是影响重金属化学形态分布的重要因素。     

贵州独山石炭系露头层序地层学研究

通过黔南独山数条剖面的追踪，对比，从岩石和生物组合特征等方面分析和研究了石炭系的副层序，沉积体系域及层序关键面和层序。副层序反映了向上变浅的过程。在滨浅海沉积过程中，地表暴露是副层序的顶界面标志之一，但不足为层序界面的标志。独山地区，从汤粑沟组至马平组共识别出30个层序，171个副层序，其中从泥盆系Cystophrentis-石炭系Pseudouralinia间隔带中的最大海泛面至马平组Pseudoschwagerina首现之下的石炭系可识别出26个层序，156个副层序。与北美大陆相比，独山地区下石炭统的层序仅在相当Homceras带的德坞阶上部少一个层序，这与下、上石炭统之间明显的沉积间断相关继承岩关期末海退的大塘期早期的第一个层序界面，即祥摆组第一层煤，可与杜内阶／维宪阶之间的层序界面相对比。独山上石炭统的副层序大体与北美大陆上石炭统的层序大体相当，仅在达拉阶／马平阶的沉积间断面之上少1个，之下少17个。石炭纪冈瓦纳冰期冰盖面积和体积的增大，可能反映到滨浅海沉积相的层序和副层序的缺失程度的增大。     

吐鲁番盆地古近纪和新近纪的气候变化

新疆吐鲁番盆地的连木沁剖面古近系与新近系的沉积厚度约1770m,是研究吐鲁番盆地这一时段古气候的良好载体。通过对连木沁剖面沉积物中常量元素地球化学分析,表明吐鲁番盆地在晚古新世阶段和晚始新世阶段,气候炎热湿润,但后者波动比较频繁。在渐新世,气候温暖干旱。中新世的气候变化明显可分为两个阶段,早期气候炎热潮湿,而晚期阶段温暖干旱。到上新世,气候显著干旱化。      

天山山区近40a夏季降水变化及与南北疆的比较

利用新疆1959-1998年的降水资料,分析了天山山区近40a来夏季降水变化特征,并与南疆、北疆进行了比较.结果表明:天山山区近40a来的夏季降水在干湿阶段、最干最湿年份、降水变化的周期方面均与南北疆有别;天山山区夏季降水空间上的同步性变化比南疆及北疆弱一些;天山山区近40a来夏季降水年代际变化与北疆较为相近.新疆近40a来夏季降水最多的年代是90年代,天山山区偏多12%,南疆偏多25%,北疆偏多21%.     

内蒙赤峰安家营子金矿微量元素特征

通过对未蚀变岩石、近矿蚀变围岩及矿区内产出的黄铁矿中微量元素的分析对比，指出本区最佳指示元素是Ａｕ、Ｃｕ、Ｂｉ、Ｐｂ、Ｍｏ、Ａｓ；矿区产出的黄铁矿都富含Ａｓ、Ｓｂ、Ｂｉ，但富金黄铁矿中还富含Ｃｕ、Ｚｎ、Ｐｂ；成矿温度影响着含金黄铁矿中微量元素含量，成矿温度高的矿床中黄铁矿之Ａｓ、Ｓｂ、Ｈｇ、Ｚｎ含量低，而更富金     

甘肃公婆泉铜矿区植物地球化学特征

公婆泉铜矿区植被属荒漠植被类型,主要产出红沙（Ｒｅａｕｍｕｒｉａ ｓｏｏｎｇｒｉｃａ）、木本猪毛莱（Ｓａｌｓｏｌａ ａｒｂｕｓｃｕｌａ）及细枝盐爪爪（Ｋａｌｉｄｉｕｍ ｇｒａｃｌｅ）３种群落。植物可分为富Ｋ、Ｎａ贫Ｃａ、Ｍｇ和富Ｃａ、Ｍｇ贫Ｋ、Ｎａ两种生物地球化学类型。矿区植物中元素平均含量及变化系数大于背景区;元素含量矿区呈偏对数正态或双峰分布,背景区呈对数正态分布。Ｎａ、Ｋ、Ｍｇ、Ｃｕ、Ｐｂ、