Studies on storm surges and tides

Studies on storm surges and tides by the author can be classified into following four categories of works; (1) observational results on storm surges; (2) dynamics of storm surges including their numerical simulations; (3) methods of tidal analysis; and (4) long-period variations of sea level.As for the first subject, distributions of tidal deviations were investigated for some representative typhoons. Peak surges exceeding a definite value were also extracted from tidal records of Kôbe, Ôsaka and other ports. They were used to estimate return periods of storm surges, and to clarify the relations between storm surges and meteorological conditions.Dynamic studies on storm surges were concentrated especially to those produced by progressive meteorological disturbances. Numerical simulations by the primitive method started soon after the damage of Ise Bay Typhoon in 1959. Computations were made also for Ise Bay, Tôkyô Bay, Ôsaka Bay and other basins along the Japanese coast. Numerical simulations were also made for storm surges produced by Hurricane Carla striking the Coast of the Gulf of Mexico in 1961.Tidal analysis were also made by the author, and they included a new method based on the harmonic analysis of consecutive data for 355 days.Seasonal and long-term variations of sea level were also studied.     

渤海风暴潮概况及温带风暴潮数值模拟

分析研究表明,天津沿海是世界上风暴潮最频发区和最严重的区域之一,风暴潮灾一年四季均有发生,除夏季有台风风暴潮灾害发生外,春、秋、冬季均有灾害性温带风暴潮发生.采用球坐标系下的二维风暴潮模式,对1969年4月23日引起渤海最大温带风暴增水过程进行了数值模拟.对风场和增水过程的计算结果验证表明,该模式可用于温带风暴潮的工程计算,并且只要依据文中方法计算出预报气压场和风场,该模式也具有预报能力.     

天津沿海风暴潮灾害近20年统计及其成因分析(英文)

根据塘沽海洋环境监测站从1991~2010年,20年的潮汐资料进行统计分析,分析得到天津平均每年发生近10年的100 cm以上的增水过程,天津沿海夏秋两季的最高潮位和平均潮位最高,且最大增水值多出现在夏秋两季,超过100 cm的增水天数多集中在春季和秋冬季,并从天文潮因素、气象因素、海平面上升、地面沉降,以及地理因素等,总结了天津沿海风暴潮灾害的成因,最后提出了相应的风暴潮灾害防范措施。     

Scaling laws for beach and dune erosion processes

This paper is focussed on the derivation of a set of general scaling laws valid for both beach and dune erosion volumes based on scaling law analysis, existing and new experimental results. This latter experiments concern beach profile changes in three different laboratory flumes using identical wave conditions based on Froude scaling. The experiments with planar sloping beaches have been done at three scales: large-scale Hannover wave flume experiment (beach slope of 1 to 15), medium scale Barcelona wave flume experiment (beach slope of 1 to 15) and small-scale Delft wave flume experiments (beach slopes of 1 to 10, 15 and 20) using an identical wave train of irregular waves (single topped spectrum).     

Numerical simulation of time-dependent beach and dune erosion

A computational procedure is developed for predicting the time-dependent, two-dimensional beach and dune erosion during severe storms due to elevated water levels and waves. The model employs the equation of sediment continuity and a dynamic equation governing the cross-shore sediment transport due to a disequilibrium of wave energy dissipation levels. These equations are solved numerically by an implicit, double-sweep procedure to determine the change in position of elevation contours in the profile. Given sufficient time, the profile will evolve to a form where the depth, h, in the surf zone is related to the distance seaward of the waterline by the relationship: $\text{h = Ax}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>2</mtext><mtext>3</mtext>}}$, which is consistent with many natural profiles and in which A depends on sediment characteristics.The model is verified qualitatively and quantitatively through application to several idealized cases and through a preliminary simulation of erosion during Hurricane Eloise. In general, the time scales for shoreline response were found to be quite long relative to natural storm systems and erosion in the early response stages was found to be sensitive to storm surge height, but much less sensitive to wave height. The model response characteristics for simulation of erosion due to time-varying storm conditions show a lag between the maximum storm surge elevation and maximum erosion with the maximum erosion rate occurring at the time of the peak surge. For the simulated erosion due to Hurricane Eloise, reasonable agreement was found between the post-hurricane dune profiles and those calculated. However, the eroded volumes were in better agreement than the profile forms as the steepening of the natural dune profiles was not reproduced in the model.     

上海沿海风暴潮历史特征分析

基于中国气象局台风最佳路径数据集和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)风场再分析资料,遴选出1979—2019年影响上海的241场历史台风事件.采用ADCIRC风暴潮模型对241场历史台风所引起的风暴潮过程进行了模拟,计算得到了上海沿海历史风暴增水数据集,由此对上海沿海代表站点的历史风暴增水进行了特征分析.结果表明,崇西...     

Numerical computations of the storm surges in tosa bay

The storm surges which occurred in Tosa Bay in August 21, 1970 were numerically simulated. First of all NOAA's model SPLASH (Special Program to List Amplitudes of Surges from Hurricanes) was used and the effects of the typhoon's parameters, the bottom topography, the coastal configuration and the coordinate systems of storm surges were examined. SPLASH was then modified to suit computations of storm surges in the open sea and open boundary conditions were studied. Finally a two layer model was developed and the effects of the two layer system on surges were investigated.     

Prediction of dune erosion due to storms

This paper presents results of experimental and mathematical modelling of beach and dune erosion under storm events. Re-analysis of the experimental results on dune erosion in small-scale and large-scale flumes shows that the dune erosion for extreme conditions is somewhat smaller than that based on earlier analysis results.     

2006年夏季福建近海台风风暴潮特征分析

根据2006年夏季福建沿岸4个海洋观测站和福建近海5个潜标水位观测站的水位观测资料,分析了在4个热带气旋影响下的福建近海风暴潮特征．结果表明：福建沿岸海域的台风风暴潮大小不完全取决于台风强弱,与大风半径关系密切．若台风大风区覆盖整个台湾海峡,福建沿岸海域增水都较大,比如0604号强热带风暴“碧利斯”的大风区较大,由其引起厦门海洋观测站的最大增水高度达114em．0608号超强台风“桑美”和0609号强热带风暴“宝霞”双台风的大风区都比较小,由其引起的各测站增水相对也较小,增水高度最大的厦门海洋观测站只有52em．比较福建近海潜标水位观测站及其附近的海洋观测站采用11点（11h）滑动平均后的最大增水可知,福建近海潜标观测站台风增水高度（22～46cm）比沿岸海洋观测站的台风增水高度（62—73em）小40％左右．这表明台风增水有个向岸堆积的过程,即测站离岸越远,台风增水高度就越小．位于热带气旋（0605号台风“格关”）行进路径右侧的测站增水较大（平潭海洋观测站极值增水高度为49em,崇武海洋观测站极值增水高度为55em）,位于热带风暴行进路径左侧的测站增水较小（东山海洋观测站极值增水高度为45cm）．通过对0604号强热带风暴“碧利斯”引起的各测站增水滤除高频振荡后,福建沿岸海洋观测站最大增水高度从大到小依次为崇武站（74orfl）、平潭站（73em）、厦门站（68om）、东山站（62cm）,可见距离热带风暴中心越近（距离热带风暴中心从近到远依次为平潭、崇武、厦门、东山海洋观测站）,增水高度越大,反之,增水高度越小．台湾海峡地形和福建沿岸海域地形容易出现双（多）增水峰现象．通过对各测站台风增水时间序列进行最大熵谱分析可知,热带气旋容易引起福建沿岸和近海各测站台风增水出现周期为12．0h的振荡．     

Numerical analysis of effects of tidal variations on storm surges and waves

This study examines the effects of tides on surges, wave setups and waves, in terms of tidal amplitudes and phases, by using a coupled numerical model of Surge, WAve and Tide (called as SuWAT). The SuWAT model, composed of depth integrated nonlinear shallow water equations and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model, is able to simultaneously run with an arbitrary number of nested domains by using the Message Passing Interface. The results for an idealized case indicate that surge and wave setup are increased in the phase of low water and decreased in the high water phase; on the other hand, waves change in a reverse manner. Such changes are enhanced by large tidal variations. The conventional method (e.g., surge plus tide independently) has the possibility of overestimation for the total water level. The hindcast results for Typhoon Ewiniar in 2006 show that the run with tides is more accurate 10% than that without tides in coastal areas of Korea. The nested scheme improves the accuracy up to 40% for the prediction of water levels in the simulations. It is shown that the present coupled model, SuWAT, is capable of predicting both water levels and waves under storm events with reasonable accuracy against the observations.     

Beach accretion and erosion, Burullus-Gamasa coast, Egypt

Several areas of erosion and accretion were observed along the Burullus-Gamasa beach. The accreted sands are coarser and less sorted than the eroded ones. Differentiation between them could be achieved on the basis of their grain-size fractions, shape of grain-size distribution curves and statistical grain-size parameter relationships.     

背景流场对台风风暴潮数值预报的影响研究

选取了3个穿过台湾海峡的台风引起的台风风暴潮为算例,分别用SODA月平均流速资料做垂向平均后构建了台湾周边海域的大尺度背景环流场,利用国家海洋环境预报中心业务化的台风风暴潮模式对经过该海域的台风个例进行风暴潮数值模拟。将结果与验潮站潮位实测资料进行对比发现,在加入了背景流场后,能更好地模拟整个风暴潮过程,模拟结果更接近真实值,特别是对于原模式风暴增水峰值容易偏大的问题得到了改善,而且整体相对误差更小,提高了风暴潮模式的业务稳定性。     

Numerical modelling of storm surges in the Beibu Gulf with SCM

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Analysis of dune erosion processes in large-scale flume experiments

Large-scale physical model tests were conducted with different wave periods to examine the physical processes driving dune erosion. The model tests have been carried out in a flume (2DV) with a sandy dune exposed to extreme surge and wave conditions [Van Gent, M.R.A., Van Thiel de Vries, J.S.M., Coeveld, E.M., De Vroeg, J.H. and Van de Graaff, J., 2008. Large-scale dune erosion tests to study the effect of wave periods. Coastal Engineering. doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2008.04.003.]. Detailed measurements in time and space of water pressure, flow velocities and sediment concentrations were performed in the near shore area. The data revealed that both short- and long waves are important to inner surf hydrodynamics. Depth averaged flows are directed offshore and increase towards the shore line. The corresponding mean sediment concentrations rise sharply towards the dune face (up to 50 g/l near the bed). The strong increase in the mean sediment concentration towards the dune face correlates well with the maximum wave surface slope which in turn is coupled to both the pressure gradient and the near-bed wave-breaking induced turbulence. Analysis shows that the pressure gradient is only partially coupled to the flow acceleration suggesting that the latter cannot always be used as a proxy for the first. Weak correlation is obtained with the near-bed flows related to the bed shear stress. Tests with a larger wave period resulted in a larger dune erosion volume. During these tests more wave energy (combined incident and infragravity waves) reached the dune face, but more importantly, this wave energy is dissipated by fewer waves resulting in more intense wave breakers and steeper wave fronts. It is therefore expected that the wave-breaking induced near-bed turbulence increases resulting in significantly higher (O(100%)) mean sediment concentrations. In addition the mean flow velocities are comparable, yielding a substantially larger offshore directed sediment transport capacity. This increase in offshore directed transport is only partially compensated by a concurrent increase in the wave related onshore transport capacity associated with intrawave processes, resulting in a net increase in the dune erosion rate.     

Effect of surge uncertainty on probabilistically computed dune erosion

To assess the flood protection capacity of dunes in The Netherlands, a semi-probabilistic dune-erosion prediction method is currently in use in which uncertainties in input parameters of an empirical dune erosion model were taken into account, with the exception of the uncertainty in the extreme surge distribution. Previous research has shown that the surge is by far the most influential parameter affecting erosion in the currently used erosion model, which is due both to the influence of the surge level itself and to the conditional dependence of the wave height and period on the surge level in the probabilistic model used for the assessment. Furthermore, the distribution of extreme surge levels has been shown to contain large statistical uncertainty. The inclusion of uncertainty in input variables into probabilistic models results in more extreme events (in this case erosion) for the same exceedance probability, largely due to the incorporation of higher values of the input variables. The goal of the research described in this paper was to determine the impact of the inclusion of uncertainty in the extreme surge distribution on the estimate of critical erosion (erosion associated with an exceedance frequency of 10^− 5 per year). The uncertainty in the surge distributions was estimated and parameterized, and was incorporated into the probabilistic model. A reduction in uncertainty was subsequently imposed to estimate what value a reduction in uncertainty can offer, in terms of the impact on critical erosion. The probabilistic technique first-order reliability method (FORM) was applied to determine the relative contribution of the uncertainty in the surge distribution (as well as the remaining stochastic variables) to the critical erosion. The impact of the inclusion of uncertainty in the surge distribution on the critical retreat distance was found to be substantial with increases ranging from 34% to 93% of the original estimate at five locations along the Dutch coast. The reduced uncertainty showed a more subtle impact, with increases in critical retreat distance ranging from 10% to 26% of the original estimate. The relative importance analysis showed that the uncertainty in the surge distribution has a strong influence, with the relative importance ranging from 10% to 23% for an exceedance frequency of 10^− 5 per year.     

河北省沿海风暴潮特征及成因分析

以秦皇岛、京唐港、曹妃甸、黄骅4个验潮站的实测潮位和逐时风的数据为基础,以2013年河北省政府发布的风暴潮四色警戒潮位值为标准,统计了2008—2017年10 a河北省沿海的风暴潮过程,从警报级别、区域分布、时间分布、天气系统、经济损失5个方面分析河北省沿海风暴潮特征,并从地形、天文潮与天气系统配合、海平面上升、全球变暖引发的气候异常4个方面分析了影响河北省沿海风暴潮的成因,分析得出:受天气系统的影响,7—10月是河北省风暴潮高发时段,且由于河北省岸线分布特点,沧州市沿海受到风暴潮影响的次数最多,唐山和秦皇岛次之,沧州和唐山地区的风暴潮过程多由东北向大风引起,而秦皇岛地区的风暴潮过程多由东南向风引起。     

热带气旋影响福建沿海风暴潮特征分析

文中利用1990~2008年气象要素资料、热带气旋路径资料和福建沿海9个验潮站资料,从热带气旋登陆、路径以及福建沿海地理特征等方面,分析研究福建沿海热带气旋风暴潮特征。结果表明:每年平均约有5.58个热带气旋登陆或影响福建,风暴潮发生率为81.1%,福建沿海风暴潮主要出现在5~10月,风暴潮过程最多的是8~9月,平均每年有4.53次风暴潮过程。正面登陆福建的热带气旋和登陆浙南的影响热带气旋,最容易引发福建省沿海热带气旋风暴潮过程,且风暴增水最强,最大增水可达200cm以上,其次是登陆广东的影响热带气旋。由于闽江口的喇叭口地形作用,位于闽江入海处的闽江口岸段在全省4个岸段中风暴增水最强。