Interannual and seasonal variability of hydrometeorological fields in some regions of the Atlantic-European sector as a manifestation of the abnormal behaviour of the North-Atlantic Oscillation

We study the interannual and seasonal variability of hydrometeorological fields in some regions of the Atlantic-European sector. These low-frequency processes are analyzed depending on the index ΔP (an analog of the index of the North-Atlantic Oscillation). It is shown that the average value of the index ΔP over the winter natural synoptic season can be used for the determination of stable locations of the centre of the Azorean maximum in 1971–1980 and 1981–1990, the typical state of cloudiness in the Atlantic-European sector, and the fields of precipitations and atmospheric temperature in some regions of the Crimea. Typical anomalies of the fields of precipitations and atmospheric temperature over the west and south coasts of the Crimea are described. The signs of the anomalies of precipitations in the winter natural synoptic season are in good agreement with the signs of the corresponding anomalies of the field of cloudiness in the Black-Sea region. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev     

Hydrometeorological characteristics of the Black-Sea region in the years with extreme values of the Sargasso–Black-Sea index

We analyze the annual average values and the anomalies of some hydrometeorological characteristics averaged over the period since January till March near the South Coast of Crimea and in the open part of the Black Sea. It is shown that the sea-surface temperature, the surface temperature of air, and the atmospheric precipitation in the Black-Sea region are lower than the climatic mean values for the extremely high values of the index of North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index) (NAO ≥ 1) and the surface temperature gradient between the Sargasso and Black Seas (SBS index) (SBS ≥ 1). In the years with NAO ≤ − 1 and SBS ≤ − 1, the indicated characteristics exceed the climatic mean values. The entire process of changes in the sign of anomalies of the hydrometeorological characteristics runs with a period close to 20 yr.     

Link between anomalously cold winters in Russia and sea-ice decline in the Barents Sea

There were several anomalously cold winter weather regimes in Russia in the early 21st century. These regimes were usually associated with a blocking anticyclone south of the Barents Sea. Numerical simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) using prescribed sea-ice concentration (SIC) data for different periods during the last 50 years showed that a rapid sea-ice area decline in the Barents Sea in the last decade could bring about the formation of such a blocking anticyclone and cooling over northern Eurasia. The SIC reduction in the former period, from the second half of the 1960s to the first half of the 1990s, results in a weaker response of opposite sign. This suggests a nonlinear atmospheric circulation response to the SIC reduction in the Barents Sea, which has been previously found in the idealized AGCM simulations. An impact of the Barents Sea SIC reduction on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in particular, on the formation of the anomalously low NAO index, is found. The results indicate an important role that the Barents Sea, a region with the largest variability of the ocean–atmosphere heat exchange in the Arctic in wintertime, plays in generating anomalous weather regimes in Russia.     

Statistical Modeling of Monthly Anomalies of Atmospheric Precipitations for the Region of the Ukraine and Black Sea

The data array accumulated for the period 1946–1995 is used to select the most significant predictor of monthly anomalies of precipitation in the region of the Ukraine and Black Sea, namely, a large-scale circulation in a sector covering the North Atlantic and Europe. Three large-scale predictors (geopotential at a level of 500GPa, sea-level pressure, and the difference between the geopotentials at levels of 500 and 1000GPa) give almost identical results: their correlation with anomalies of precipitation is equal to 0.7–0.8 in winter and 0.4–0.5 in summer. The predominant mechanism of the influence of circulation on precipitations at low frequencies is the response of the trajectories of European cyclones to changes in the upper-tropospheric jet currents in the Atlantic-European sector described as the superposition of the North-Atlantic oscillation and the Eurasian mode. The decomposition of the fields of precipitations and circulation in the eigenmodes of the canonical correlation analysis opens a possibility of direct computation of the monthly average fields of precipitations for the entire territory of the Ukraine and Black Sea region according to the large-scale geopotential fields.     

Influence of long-term regional and large-scale atmospheric circulation on the Baltic sea level

The connection between variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the Baltic sea level has been investigated for the period 1825–1997. The association between the NAO and the strength of the zonal geostrophic wind stress over the Northwest Atlantic suggests an NAO impact on Baltic sea level variations, because the monthly mean sea level mainly is determined by externally driven variations caused by wind conditions over the North Sea. Several period bands were found to have high correlation between oscillations in the winter (JFM) NAO index and the Baltic Sea winter mean sea level. The correlation was, however, higher in the 20th century than in the 19th. During the last two decades, the correlation between the NAO index and the sea level has been exceptionally high. The winter mean of a regional atmospheric circulation index had a correlation with the Kattegat winter mean sea level of 0.93. With the Baltic sea level the correlation was 0.91, compared with the NAO index correlation for the same period of 0.74. The regional index also showed a high correlation with the mean summer and mean autumn sea levels, when the corresponding seasonal NAO indices showed a weak connection. The temporal variation of the connection with the NAO index implies a regional atmospheric circulation occasionally differing from the large-scale circulation associated with the NAO. Seasonal means of the sea level in Stockholm do, however, reflect the regional wind climate to a large extent, and the Baltic sea level is a useful proxy for identifications of climatic dependencies in the region.     

Water circulation and hydrological structure in the active layer of the 50-mile near-shore zone of the Russian sector of the black sea in August 2004

The water dynamics and hydrological structure in the active (oxygen-containing) layer are considered on the basis of the hydrological survey carried out in the 50-mile near-shore zone of the Russian sector of the Black Sea in August 2004 and over the permanent section from Gelendzhik to the central part of the sea. Five mesoscale eddy structures of different signs were observed in the Main Black Sea Current between Sochi and the Kerch Strait. Such a dynamic situation contributed to the intensive horizontal water exchange between the near-shore and open sea waters as well as to the redistribution of water masses over the vertical in the active sea layer, which is indicated by the deepening of the top boundary of the hydrogen sulfide zone in the Russian sector of the sea by 15–20 m.     

Climatic and hydrophysical conditions of the development of hypoxia in waters of the northwest shelf of the Black Sea

The data of meteorological and oceanographic observations on the northwest shelf of the Black Sea for 1973–2000 are used to compute the characteristics of the entire area in the presence of hypoxia of waters under the pycnocline in the summer–autumn period and the area of surface waters with a level of salinity lower than 17.5‰ in May. The time of onset of the spring warming of air (stable transition through a temperature of 5°) is determined. A statistically significant positive trend of the air temperature (0.8° per 100 yr) is revealed in Odessa. The process of warming was observed mainly for the winter (1.5° per 100 yr) and spring (0.8° per 100 yr) periods and became especially intense since the beginning of the 1990s. On the basis of the data of correlation analyses, we establish a statistically significant relationship between the large-scale atmospheric processes [the index of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the wind conditions], the area of surface waters whose salinity is lower than 17.5‰, and the total area with hypoxia in the summer–autumn periods. For positive mean values of the NAO index (in January–March), we most often observe early spring with elevated repetition of the south and west winds with subsequent development of hypoxia in large areas of the northwest shelf. We propose an empirical regression model for the prediction of the total area of summer–autumn hypoxia of waters with predictors: the onset of the spring warming of air and the area of propagation of waters whose salinity is lower than 17.5‰ in May. The maximum error of prediction of the area with hypoxia does not exceed 5.5 ⋅ 10³ km², i.e., less than 2% of the total area of the northwest shelf in the Black Sea (to the north of 45°N).     

Cloud filtration technique for the Black-Sea AVHRR data

We consider a version of the procedure of cloudiness recognition in the AVHRR images regionally adapted for the Black-Sea region. The threshold algorithms using the specific features of the formation of upward radiation in different spectral ranges are taken as basic. In studying the data obtained for the Black Sea, we analyze and modify the well-known algorithms of detection of the cloudy situations in the day and night time. The efficiency and disadvantages of the developed method are estimated by analyzing the results of processing of the satellite data obtained in 2005 and 2006.     

Cloudiness regime shift during 1946-1992 recorded by coral in the South China Sea

1 IntroductionCorals from the tropical oceans are the well-known paleoclimate proxies that offer both the high-resolution and multi-century record length needed forquantification of seasonal to centennial variations.Most corals build skeletons of aragonite (CaCO3) andgrow at rates of millimeters to centimeters per year(Sun et al., 2002). During growth, annual densitybands are produced in the skeleton that shows timemarkers for the development of chronologies (seeFig.1). Coral skeletons may p…     

Spectral contributions of the components of seawater to the beam attenuation coefficient in surface waters of the Mediterranean Sea

We compute model spectra of the beam attenuation coefficient in surface waters of the Mediterranean Sea. These spectra are used to determine the contribution of the components of seawater (suspended matter, yellow substance, pigments of phytoplankton, and pure water) to the beam attenuation coefficient in different types of seawater. For the surface waters, we establish the relationship between the light scattering coefficient and the attenuation coefficient at a wavelength of 547 nm and determine the background (limiting minimum) value of the coefficient of absorption by the yellow substance in waters of the Mediterranean Sea. It is compared with the values of the same parameter for some other basins (Black Sea, Lake Baikal, Baltic Sea, and oceanic waters).     

Viscous model of plate tectonics for the Black Sea region (in relation to the problem of the late Cenozoic evolution of the Black Sea basins)

A numerical model of the Black Sea region (Northeastern Mediterranean) is presented in which it is regarded as a part of the mosaic plate ensemble consisting of the fixed East European platform; the active Arabian, Adriatic, and Pannonian plates; and passive East and West Black Sea and Mysian microplates, which are embedded in a plastically deformable regional orogenic matrix. The fields of displacements, stresses, and deformations in the region are calculated by means of the finite element method within the framework of a linear-viscous rheology approach to a system with nonhomogeneous viscosities. The velocity field obtained is in good agreement with published data of direct observations of plate displacements in the region. In the pressure field, areas of low pressure and decompression are established in the western part of Black Sea and in the south of the Mysian microplate. The poles of rotation of the East and West Black Sea microplates and of the Mysian microplate are computed. For the latter two microplates, significant rotational components are suggested. The East Black Sea microplate acts mostly as indenter, which transmits the collisional motion from the Arabian plate to the southern edge of the East European platform including the Crimea. According to the geodynamical model, the rates of the Cenozoic sedimentation in the Black Sea depression at the collision stage (Oligocene-Pliocene) result from the greater compression of the East Black Sea microplate as compared to the West Black Sea microplate, which, probably, experienced a kind of extension.     

Establishment of “Zernov’s Phyllophora field” marine reserve: Protection and restoration of a unique ecosystem

“Zernov’s Phyllophora field” is a unique habitat located in the northwestern Black Sea. At the site, there is a dense stand of agarophytes (red algae) and a high diversity of associated fauna. On November 21 2008, the president of Ukraine (Victor Yuschenko) declared this area a botanical reserve of state-wide importance; it was established to protect and restore a unique natural environment. “Zernov’s Phyllophora field” is the first offshore, fully marine MPA in the Black Sea, and it is the largest. The total area is 402,500 ha, covering 12.5% of the northwestern shelf of the Black Sea. The Ukrainian Scientific Centre for the Ecology of Sea has developed a program for (1) preservation, (2) restoration and (3) further rational use of biological resources at the site. It contains three conforming and interdependent sub-programs that put forward a series of measures for implementing the objectives (preservation, restoration, sustainable resource use).The northwestern Black Sea was heavily impacted by anthropogenic loading in the period 1970–1980, and Zernov’s Phyllophora field was considerably degraded and reduced in area. During recent years the perimeter of the Phyllophora field has slightly extended, and restoration of the benthic phytocoenosis has begun. Assigning this area the status of a marine reserve (Marine Protected Area) will further promote processes of restoring faunal and floristic biodiversity to historically healthy levels.     

On the long-term variability of normalized radiance of the Black Sea

Basin-wide distributions of normalized spectral radiances averaged over different time periods were plotted based on the estimates of the average radiance for 20 × 20 km squares in 482 digital images of the Black Sea obtained with a SeaWiFS color scanner in 1998–2004. Significant distinctions of the annual average distributions in the amplitude, localization, and configuration of basin-scale inhomogeneities allowed us to consider these distributions as yearly spectral-radiance portraits of the Black Sea that reflect specific features of the annual behavior of the hydrometeorological conditions over the Black Sea region. Seasonal features of the radiance distributions related to the wind field were discovered. Substantial interannual variability in the errors of the standard atmospheric correction algorithm resulting in an underestimation of the shortwave radiances were revealed. It is shown that the river discharge and the stratification of the layer sensed substantially influence the yearly spectral-radiance portraits of the Black Sea.     

Soft- and hardware for the reception and treatment of satellite and reference data and their application to monitoring hydrometeorological fields

The paper describes the functional scheme of the soft- and hardware complex designed to receive, to treat and to disseminate satellite and reference hydrometeorological data. The complex displays a high degree of integration and unification of soft- and hardware techniques and packages. The operation of the complex is studied through the monitoring of cloud fields in the Atlantic-European section of the Northern hemisphere during the winter-time synoptic season of 1995–1996. The complex is shown to be capable of identifying large-scale cloud anomalies and of estimating their coherence in the individual regions of the Atlantic-European zone. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Coastline configuration disrupts the effects of large-scale climatic forcing, leading to divergent temporal trends in wave exposure

Both climate change and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) may influence coastal systems by altering wave exposure. The effects of such climatic forcing are often coherent over relatively large geographic areas. Temporal trends in wave exposure at any particular shore are, however, the result of an interaction between site-specific fetch characteristics and changes in wind climate. This leads to contrasting trends in wave exposure at locations separated by no more than a few kilometres. Wave exposures were estimated at locations around a sea lough over 32 years to characterise these scales of variability. Locations separated by approximately 5 km had independent dynamics with respect to the temporal trend (correlation range −0.35 to 0.44) and to associations with the NAO (correlation range −0.18 to 0.40). Wave exposure can therefore be increasing for a section of shore while nearby areas have the opposite trend. Mean exposure at a location was not a good predictor of the temporal trend. More exposed sites were, however, sensitive to variations in the strength of the NAO. The reduction of large scale forcing to small-scale variability has implications for the detection and mitigation of potential climate change impacts.     

Thermal structure of the crust in the Black Sea: comparative analysis of magnetic and heat flow data

This paper presents the first study of mapping of the Curie point depth (CPD) from magnetic data for the Black Sea and a comparison with a classical thermal modeling from heat flow data. The provided relationship between radially averaged power spectrum of the magnetic anomalies and the depths to the magnetic sources of the Black Sea vary from 22 to 36 km. Deepening of CPDs observed in the western and eastern Black Sea basins correspond with the thickest sediment areas, whereas the shallow CPDs are related to the Mid-Black Sea Ridge and thin sediment areas at the costal side of the Black Sea. For comparison, the temperature field was also modeled from heat flow data from the Black Sea along three approximately north–south directed profiles corresponding to known DSS soundings. The Curie isotherm along the profiles occurs at depths of 22–35 km. A comparison of the results of the two independent methods reveals only 8–10 % discrepancy. This discrepancy is equal to an accuracy of temperature determination from heat flow data.     

Decadal water mass variations along 20°W in the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean

Water mass variations in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean along 20°W are analyzed with pentadal resolution over the past 15 years using data from four repeat occupations of a meridional hydrographic section running south from Iceland. The section was sampled in 1988, 1993, 1998, and 2003. The results are interpreted in the context of changes in air–sea forcing, ocean circulation, and water properties associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO index oscillated around zero from 1984 to 1988, was strongly positive from 1989 to 1995, after which it shifted to lower positive, and occasionally negative values from 1996 to 2003. Previously published studies suggest that after the 1995–1996 shift of the NAO, the subpolar gyre largely retreated to the northwest in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean, resulting in an increasingly southeastern character of local water masses with time. Water property changes extending from the SubPolar Mode Water (SPMW) just below the seasonal pycnocline through the density range shared by Mediterranean Outflow Water and SubArctic Intermediate Water (SAIW) along 20°W are consistent with changes in wind-driven ocean circulation and air–sea heat flux associated with shifts in the NAO, especially after accounting for ocean memory. After periods of lower NAO index the SPMW is warmer, saltier, and lighter. At these same times, large increases of apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) and potential vorticity are found at the SPMW base, consistent with SPMW ventilation to lighter densities during lower NAO index periods. Deeper and denser in the water column, the cold, fresh, and dense SAIW signature within the permanent pycnocline that was most strongly present in 1993, near the culmination of a period of high NAO index, is much reduced in 1988 and 1998. In 2003, after a prolonged period of lower NAO index, increasing influence of warmer, saltier subtropical waters is clear within the permanent pycnocline. The deep penetration of the changes implies that they are caused primarily by circulation changes resulting from NAO-associated wind shifts, but changes in air–sea heat flux could also have played a role.     

Spectrum of mesoscale sea level oscillations in the northern Black Sea: Tides,seiches, and inertial oscillations

Long-term data from 23 tide gauges were used to analyze the spectrum of mesoscale sea level variability of the Black Sea. The tides have sharp spectral peaks, and they are detected at diurnal and semidiurnal frequencies for all stations. A local wide spectral peak associated with inertial oscillations is located between the diurnal and semidiurnal tidal peaks. This peak is well known in the spectra of the current velocity variations of the Black Sea, but in the sea level spectrum it has been identified for the first time. At frequencies of >3 cpd, sea level spectra of the Black Sea have (1) wide maxima in the continuous spectrum, which correspond to the main eigenmodes of the sea with periods of 5.6, 4.8, 4.1, and 3.1 h, and (2) sharp peaks of radiational harmonics S₃, S₄, S₅, and S₆. The periods of seiches calculated in this study are close to the periods of eigenmodes of the Black Sea, obtained by the numerical modeling of other authors. The main factors influencing the formation of radiational tides in the Black Sea are presumably breezes and runoff from large rivers. The significant predominance of a harmonic with frequency of 5 cpd (S₅) over other radiational harmonics is caused by the influence of an eigenmode, with a frequency of about 5 cpd. The proximity of the periods of these oscillations leads to resonant amplification and to a corresponding increase in amplitude of the radiational harmonic S₅.     

Satellite-observed trends in the Arctic sea ice concentration for the period 1979–2016

Arctic sea ice cover has decreased dramatically over the last three decades. This study quanti?es the sea ice concentration(SIC) trends in the Arctic Ocean over the period of 1979–2016 and analyzes their spatial and temporal variations. During each month the SIC trends are negative over the Arctic Ocean, wherein the largest(smallest) rate of decline found in September(March) is-0.48%/a(-0.10%/a).The summer(-0.42%/a) and autumn(-0.31%/a) seasons show faster decrease rates than those of winter(-0.12%/a) and spring(-0.20%/a) seasons. Regional variability is large in the annual SIC trend. The largest SIC trends are observed for the Kara(-0.60%/a) and Barents Seas(-0.54%/a), followed by the Chukchi Sea(-0.48%/a), East Siberian Sea(-0.43%/a), Laptev Sea(-0.38%/a), and Beaufort Sea(-0.36%/a). The annual SIC trend for the whole Arctic Ocean is-0.26%/a over the same period. Furthermore, the in?uences and feedbacks between the SIC and three climate indexes and three climatic parameters, including the Arctic Oscillation(AO), North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO), Dipole anomaly(DA), sea surface temperature(SST), surface air temperature(SAT), and surface wind(SW), are investigated. Statistically, sea ice provides memory for the Arctic climate system so that changes in SIC driven by the climate indices(AO, NAO and DA) can be felt during the ensuing seasons. Positive SST trends can cause greater SIC reductions, which is observed in the Greenland and Barents Seas during the autumn and winter. In contrast, the removal of sea ice(i.e., loss of the insulating layer) likely contributes to a colder sea surface(i.e., decreased SST), as is observed in northern Barents Sea. Decreasing SIC trends can lead to an in-phase enhancement of SAT, while SAT variations seem to have a lagged in?uence on SIC trends. SW plays an important role in the modulating SIC trends in two ways: by transporting moist and warm air that melts sea ice in peripheral seas(typically evident inthe Barents Sea) and by exporting sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean via passages into the Greenland and Barents Seas, including the Fram Strait, the passage between Svalbard and Franz Josef Land(S-FJL),and the passage between Franz Josef Land and Severnaya Zemlya(FJL-SZ).     

Impact of swell on simulations using a regional atmospheric climate model

When long, fast swell waves travel in approximately the same direction as the wind, the surface stress is reduced compared with under wind-sea conditions. Using measurements from the Östergarnsholm site in the Baltic Sea, new expressions of the roughness length were developed for wind sea and swell. These new expressions were implemented in the RCA3 regional climate model covering Europe. A 3-year simulation and two case studies using the wavefield from the ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-40) were analysed using the improved formulations. Wind-following swell led to a significant reduction of mean wind stress and heat fluxes. The mean surface layer wind speed was redistributed horizontally and the marine boundary layer cooled and dried slightly. This cooling was most pronounced over North Sea and the Norwegian Sea (almost 0.2 °C annually on average) whereas the drying was most pronounced over the Mediterranean Sea (almost 0.4 g kg⁻¹). Somewhat less convective precipitation and low-level cloudiness over the sea areas were also indicated, in particular over the Mediterranean Sea. The impact on the atmosphere, however, is significantly locally greater in time and space.