多模型方法在非点源污染负荷中的应用展望

对非点源污染进行定量化和有效控制的方法是通过非点源污染负荷模型对各类非点源的形成、迁移转化以及负荷量进行模拟。然而,流域非点源污染模型的不确定性是单一模型模拟污染负荷面临的重大挑战。借鉴多模型方法在降低水文模型不确定性方面的优越性,通过分析水文模型与非点源污染模型的相通性,提出多模型方法在非点源污染负荷中应用的基本思路并分析了多模型方法在非点源污染负荷估算中面临的挑战,总结了多模型方法在非点源污染负荷应用中的重点和难点问题。     

我国农村水环境非点源污染研究进展

农业非点源污染是导致水质污染最主要原因之一。我国农村非点源污染研究之初采用的研究方法主要有两种，一种是应用与水文模型紧密相关的模型来模拟和估算非点源污染负荷；另一种是通用土壤流失法。最近又提出了一种简便易用的流域非点源污染负荷估算方法－平均浓度法。将农业非点源污染负荷与3S技术结合、与水质模型对接用于流域水质管理成为农业非点源污染研究的新生长点。近年来，农村非点源污染研究也开始探索非点源污染负荷与河流水质模型接口问题。     

一维水质模型结合改进的输出系数法在流域非点源污染负荷估算中的应用

非点源污染是导致流域水体水质恶化的关键污染来源之一,为了估算流域非点源污染负荷,本文提出将一维水质模型应用于分离监测断面点源污染负荷和非点源污染负荷的方法,并结合了改进的输出系数法,以COD_Mn和NH₃-N为代表性指标,将该模型应用于潮河下游流域,并与传统的水文分割法结合改进的输出系数法估算非点源污染负荷的结果进行对比。结果表明,一维水质模型结合改进的输出系数法估算流域非点源COD_Mn和NH₃-N污染负荷模拟值的纳什系数均在0.800以上,具有良好的模拟精度,同时避免了水文分割法无法较好地模拟枯水期非点源污染负荷的弊端。该方法在运用SWAT（soil and water assessment tool）模型预测得到水文数据的情况下,能够预测流域非点源污染负荷,作为SWAT模型对COD模拟的补充。     

非点源污染空间连续分布模型研究

非点源污染负荷的离散型分布不利于深入研究非点源污染与社会、环境等因素的关系,因此非常必要对其进行空间连续分布处理,但在对离散变量连续化过程中应注意尺度和信息增减等问题.以非点源污染中人畜产污为例,通过构建空间连续分布模型模拟计算人畜产污的数量及其分布.从验证的结果来看,这种非点源污染空间连续分布处理方法不但是必要的,也是可行的.     

非点源污染负荷模型的研究进展

基于国内外非点源负荷污染模型的研究现状,针对农业、城市和混合三种类型非点源模型,总结并梳理了主要模型的适用条件,并对非点源模型的发展趋势进行了展望。     

黄河干流潼关断面非点源污染负荷估算

基于平均浓度法原理,根据黄河中游降雨径流特点,将年内过程分为汛期和非汛期两个阶段,同时将高含沙水流中的污染负荷分为水体中的溶解态污染负荷、泥沙吸附态负荷两部分,提出了多沙河流非点源污染负荷估算模型;根据黄河干流潼关断面1950-2006年实测水沙资料,结合水体、泥沙污染物浓度测定试验,分别计算了潼关断面2006年以及丰水年(P=25%)、平水年(P=50%)、枯水年(P=75%)3种不同代表年型下的非点源污染负荷.结果表明:黄河干流潼关断面年污染负荷以汛期为主,汛期污染负荷以非点源为主;非点源污染负荷中,硝酸盐氮、氨氮以溶解态为主,总磷以吸附态为主;潼关断面非点源污染负荷占全年负荷比例:丰水年时,硝酸盐氮占63.09%,氨氮占61.32%,总氮占87.17%、总磷占89.83%;枯水年时,硝酸盐氮占26.92%,氨氮占24.62%,总氮占67.60%、总磷占71.73%.2006年,硝酸盐氮、氨氮、总氮和总磷非点源污染负荷占全年比例依次为:17%、14%、15%和41%.     

自贡市旭水河流域土地利用/覆被对非点源污染负荷的影响

水体污染的首要原因之一是面源污染,地表过多的营养物质通过地表径流进入水体从而产生污染。这里应用RS和GIS技术,结合输出系统模型,对贡井区旭水河流域非点源污染负荷进行多时相空间分布模拟。结果表明:贡井区非点源污染负荷TN、TP由于当地土地开发利用的缘故,从2007年到2009年呈逐渐上升趋势;在空间分布上TN、TP分布呈越来越离散趋势。研究表明:不同土地利用类型对非点源污染负荷的贡献率也存在着显著差异。     

地表水非点源污染负荷计算方法探讨

以多年河流统计监测资料为基础,运用两点法,考虑非点源影响,逆推计算,求得地表水非点源污染负荷。以吉林省为例,分析了吉林省4大水系15条河流65个监测断面2000~2004年统计资料,运用两点法确定吉林省主要河流COD衰减系数(K),逆推计算得到吉林省非点源污染负荷为1443.711m3/s,其中松花江水系802.93m3/s,图们江水系108.369m3/s,辽河水系372.392m3/s,浑江、鸭绿江水系160.02m3/s。非点源污染负荷是点源污染负荷的57.14倍,成为吉林省地表水环境主要污染源。     

太湖流域污染负荷模型研究

在大量参数试验和调查的基础上,通过研究太湖流域各种点源和非点源污染负荷的排放去向、产生量和处理系数,建立了太湖流域污染负荷模型。该模型的计算结果为太湖流域水质模型的模拟提供了污染源的各种污染负荷完整的输入资料,不再需要繁杂地整理和准备太湖流域水质模型必须输入的各种污染负荷数据。可以通过图形直观地显示太湖流域各种污染源的污染物产生量和处理量,使整个流域上难以直接量测的各种污染负荷得到量化。     

非点源污染的流域分配方法研究

农业非点源污染的流域分配研究对于提高环境质量具有重要的现实意义。根据遥感技术得到的土地利用类型、河网、道路、圩区等信息,结合地理信息系统（GIS）的空间分析功能,对非点源污染负荷进行了定量计算及可视化分析,在此基础上,得到各主要河段的污染分配量,这可为寻求流域内合理的土地利用模式和农业非点源污染排放总量的控制方法提供决策依据。     

我国非点源污染研究进展与发展趋势

非点源污染是我国重要的污染源。本文简要介绍了非点源污染模型，我国非点源污染的研究现状，分析了我国非点源污染研究存在的问题及未来研究发展趋势。     

Modeling impacts of sediment delivery ratio and land management on adsorbed non-point source nitrogen and phosphorus load in a mountainous basin of the Three Gorges reservoir area, China

Agricultural nonpoint source (NPS) pollution at the Three Gorges reservoir area in China has been increasingly recognized as a threat to aquatic environment in recent years due to the serious eutrophication problem. Adsorbed NPS pollution is one of the major forms of NPS pollution in mountainous regions, the essential of the adsorbed NPS pollution is soil loss. Thus, simple, highly sensitive and continuous methods are required to simulate and quantify sediments yield at watershed scales. It is imperative to construct an integrated model to estimate the sediment yield and adsorbed NPS pollution load. According to the characteristics of climate, hydrology, topography, geology, geomorphology and land use types in Three Gorges reservoir area, a GIS-based dynamic-integrated-distributed model of annual adsorbed NPS load was presented in view of impacts of the rainfall intensity, sediment delivery ratio (SDR) and land management, where the temporally dynamic-continuous model of annual sediment yield was established by modifying the revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), and the spatially integrated-distributed model of annual adsorbed NPS load was then developed via the correlation between sediment yield and adsorbed NPS load. Furthermore, a case study of the Jialing River basin in China was applied to validate the integrated model, the dynamic-distributed coupling among GIS technology, sediment yield model, and adsorbed NPS load model was achieved successfully. The simulation results demonstrate the following: (1) runoff and sediment are influenced greatly by rainfall intensity, SDR and vegetation cover; rainfall and land management show high sensitivities to the integrated model; the average annual adsorbed TN and TP pollution loads from 2006 to 2010 decreased by 76 and 74 % compared with the previous treatment (1990), respectively. (2) Spatio-temporal variations of adsorbed NPS nitrogen and phosphorus load are mainly related to different land use types and the background level of nutriments in topsoil; different land use types have different contribution rates; the largest contribution rates of adsorbed total nitrogen (TN, 58.9 %) and total phosphorus (TP, 53 %) loads are both from the dryland cropland. (3) The identification of critical source areas can help to implement the prevention and control measures aiming at the reduction of water environmental pollution. These results will provide useful and valuable information for decision makers and planners to take sustainable land use management and soil conservation measures for the control of sediment pollution in the Three Gorges reservoir area. The application of this model in the catchment shows that the integrated model may be used as a major tool to assess sediment yield risks and adsorbed NPS pollution load at mountainous watersheds.     

FRFI model application in groundwater non-point source pollution evaluation: a case study in the Luoyang Basin of North Henan province, China

The traditional non-point source (NPS) pollution models mainly focus on the flow path of NPS pollutants and attenuation during the flow. Extensive data set preparation and complex results analysis for these models are the most common problems encountered by the model user. In this study a new model, fuzzy-rough sets and fuzzy inference (FRFI), was introduced to evaluate groundwater NPS pollution. The proposed model involves two steps: the algorithm of fuzzy-rough sets attribute reduction (FRSAR) was applied to yield minimal decision rules from the fuzzy information system (FIS); the fuzzy inference technique was then used to forecast a groundwater synthesis pollution index based on the minimal decision rules. This model was applied in the Luoyang Basin, examining NPS pollution factors and hydrochemical variables data to validate the effectiveness of this model. The results indicate that it is only required to collect five NPS pollution factors or three hydrochemical variables; the groundwater synthesis pollution index can be predicted using the FRFI model. The prediction error is restricted to 2.9–6.1 % and 0.8–1.6 %, respectively. Therefore, the costs of computation and monitoring can be decreased, and the user is not required to prepare massive model parameters for the FRFI model. According to analyze the correlation between NPS pollution factors and hydrochemical variables, prevention measures are provided for treatment of the endemic disease and eutrophication. The FRFI model can be suitable for groundwater NPS pollution evaluation systems.     

生活垃圾淋滤液组分的变化特征及其污染机理分析──以长春市为例

利用室内模拟试验成果对长春市生活垃圾淋滤液的组分特征、变化规律及其对土壤、地下水的污染机理进行了分析；结合野外监测资料运用非确定性模型方法建立模拟模型，对淋滤液的污染组分进行趋势预测，为垃圾堆放场地的设计和垃圾污染的治理提供理论上的依据。同时为解决城市生活垃圾污染问题和寻找垃圾场地奠定了基础     

浑河沈阳城区段污染总量控制研究

排污总量控制是确定河道的纳污能力,然后向流域内分配允许排放量的过程。选用一维水质模型进行水环境状况的模拟,对浑河沈阳城区段水环境容量进行计算,在此基础上按功能区内各排污口及支流口所占污染负荷比进行了主要污染物控制排放量及削减量分配。     

流域面源集成管理系统的设计与应用

利用矢量数据结构的地理信息系统(GIS)软件和模拟模型集成开发流域面源污染管理系统.以上海市苏州河流域为例,通过土地利用类型、土壤类型、子流域等图层的叠加,将流域空间分割为一系列不规则的矢量多边形,并将这些矢量多边形作为非点源模拟的空间单元;利用组件式地理信息系统平台MapX、Surfer等,设计和开发了无缝集成的苏州河面源管理信息系统的结构、功能和数据库组成,并初步建立了可运行的苏州河流域面源管理信息系统.在系统的支持下,可有效地实现流域面源污染负荷估算、面源污染指数评价、单位面源负荷的等值线绘制以及面源污染的总量控制等功能.所开发的系统,既是面源污染专业软件开发的有益尝试,同时也是流域数字化环境管理的有益探索.     

A review of current issues in air pollution modeling and simulation

Air pollution modeling is now a mature field, and comprehensive numerical models (the chemistry-transport models) are used in many applications. This article aims at reviewing the main issues from the point of view of applied mathematics and computational physics (as viewed by the author). We address topics such as subgrid parameterization, numerical algorithms with a focus on aerosol simulation, data assimilation and inverse modeling, reduction of high-dimensional models and propagation of uncertainties. Even if this article is strictly related to air pollution modeling, many issues and methods can be extended to dispersion of tracers in other media (for instance, water). This article is based on a plenary talk given at SIAM Geosciences, Avignon, June 2005.     

重庆涪陵页岩气勘查开发区环境地质调查进展

紧密结合国家非常规能源勘探开发的重大战略,聚焦重庆涪陵页岩气勘查开发区环境地质调查工作,总结了研究区岩溶发育特征与分布规律,评价了涪陵页岩气开发区区域水资源量和地下水质量。在此基础上,收集分析国内外资料,梳理了页岩气勘查开发所引发的6类环境(地质)问题及勘查、钻井、压裂、开采、闭井等5个阶段需关注的地质环境问题或风险等,其中涪陵页岩气勘查开发区主要诱发水土污染、地质灾害和大气污染等环境(地质)问题; 基本识别了2种地下水污染模式、3种污染类型及可能的地下水污染风险途径; 初步确定了涪陵页岩气勘查开发区污染指示性特征因子,并形成了页岩气勘查开发区地质环境影响评价指标体系,可指导页岩气勘查开发的环境地质调查。该研究为页岩气国家新型清洁能源的绿色开发和开发区生态文明建设提供支撑。     

重庆涪陵页岩气勘查开发区环境地质调查进展

紧密结合国家非常规能源勘探开发的重大战略,聚焦重庆涪陵页岩气勘查开发区环境地质调查工作,总结了研究区岩溶发育特征与分布规律,评价了涪陵页岩气开发区区域水资源量和地下水质量。在此基础上,收集分析国内外资料,梳理了页岩气勘查开发所引发的6类环境(地质)问题及勘查、钻井、压裂、开采、闭井等5个阶段需关注的地质环境问题或风险等,其中涪陵页岩气勘查开发区主要诱发水土污染、地质灾害和大气污染等环境(地质)问题; 基本识别了2种地下水污染模式、3种污染类型及可能的地下水污染风险途径; 初步确定了涪陵页岩气勘查开发区污染指示性特征因子,并形成了页岩气勘查开发区地质环境影响评价指标体系,可指导页岩气勘查开发的环境地质调查。该研究为页岩气国家新型清洁能源的绿色开发和开发区生态文明建设提供支撑。