基于Prophet-RF模型的GNSS高程坐标时间序列预测分析

针对GNSS高程坐标时间序列非平稳性与非线性等特点,在深入分析Prophet模型与随机森林(ran-dom forest,RF)模型特性的基础上,构建了Prophet-RF组合预测模型,解决了Prophet模型对时间序列非线性部分预测能力较弱的缺陷,且该组合模型具有较强的鲁棒性.本文选用BJFS站高程方向的连续观测数据...     

我国经济增长的自组织模型研究

经济系统的复杂性决定了经济变动及影响因素解释的困难性.应用自组织数据挖掘方法,建立一个解释我国GDP增长的自组织模型,同时与用主成分分析方法建立的GDP增长模型进行比较,分析影响我国经济增长的主要因素,并在此基础上提出相应的对策思路.     

基于Linux系统的SEDF调度算法的研究与分析

EDF调度算法具备高CPU利用率、可调度较大的任务集的优点.将EDF调度算法和静态优先级调度算法的可控性相结合,提出了一种新的调度算法--SEDF调度算法(Strong Earliest Deadline First).首先从理论上分析了SEDF算法的可调度性条件及其时间特性,并针对SEDF调度算法对Linux系统环境提出了一些修改;然后通过实验数据对比了EDF算法和SEDF算法,证明SEDF算法具备更强的控制能力,更利于高优先级任务的优先运行,更能够实现Linux内核对实时任务更高的响应能力.     

FORECAST ON FUTURE LEVEL OF ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA

China is a country in the period of economy takeoff. We cannot use the common method to forecast its fu-ture economy level. This paper establishes an economic level forecast model of the countries whose economy is in the takeoff because of the stimulation of model country. The enlightenment of the model is from physics. If there are two sub-stances, A and B, and a medium between them, according to physics, when substance A is hotter than B, B‘ s tempera-ture will inevitably rise and close to that of A. Thus, this system tends to be a state of balance. Three factors affect heatconduction between substance A and B. They are the difference of temperature between two substances, the conductivityof medium and the characteristics of themselves. The model is testified through two examples. And then we forecast theeconomic development level of China in long term. This paper raises a model to solve the problem of research approaches.However, since there are some limitations on data source, problems will appear. For example, in certain years, our fore-cast results do not suit the real situation. But in the long term, the tendency is accurate. Then this model can be amendedin accordance with different situations.     

资本投入下经济增长模型的动态分析

在内生增长理论的思想基础上,建立了一个内生资本投入的经济增长模型,并通过动态最优化的方法.对该模型的增长路径进行了稳定性分析,讨论了资本投入与经济增长之间的内在作用机制.     

A study on structural analysis of suburban ecological and economic system

Along with the development of urban economy, the growth of urban population and the increase of needs of urban society, the suburban ecological and economic system changes constantly and profoundly in its structure and function. Intensifying the research on structural analysis of suburban ecological and economic system is of great significance for grasping light the laws governing the development and evolution of the suburban ecological and economic system and leading this system onto a path of sound circle. By making comprehensive use of the cluster analysis and latent structural analysis the author attempts to explore a new avenue of revealing the structure of suburban ecological and economic system, taking Tianjin suburbs and counties as an example. The results obtained from the above-stated analyses show that it is entirely possible and extremely effective to study the structure and function of suburban ecological and economic system and provide scientific evidence for control of this system by using mathematical methods and statistical analyses.     

Regional Financial Development and Regional Economic Growth： An Empirical Analysis of Suzhou City, China

There are many defects in researches on the relationship of the regional financial development(FD)and economic growth of China,such as simply assuming the causality direction,not highlighting financial institution,us-ing incomplete financial indicator,etc.This article,taking Suzhou City of Jiangsu Province,China as a case,builds a simple model to study the level of FD from three aspects of financial scale,structure and institution.Three original in-dicators of PRIVY(private investment/aggregate investment),DEPTH(aggregate loan/GDP)and FDIVG(FDI/GDP)are used to construct the FD economic indicator through Principal Component Analysis approach.Then we use Granger method to analyze the relationship between the FD and the economic growth of Suzhou.Empirical test results show that the FD of Suzhou is the Granger reason of economic growth,while economic growth is not the reason for FD,because the relationship between the FD and the economic growth of Suzhou is just in the"supply-leading"period.In terms of Suzhou experiences,the local government should strengthen the protection of private investment,improve the institutional environment,and establish the reasonable financial structure.So we can concluded that FD could play a great role in promoting economic growth at the economy takeoff stage.     

Regional difference in social capital and its impact on regional economic growth in China

Social capital has played an increasingly important role in regional development. China is a country with high stocks of social capital. Using several different indicators of social capital, this study tries to research the regional disparities in social capital and the influence of social capital on economic growth of China in 1978–2004. Measuring social capital with indicators of associations, charities and blood donation rates, this study finds significant regional disparities in social capital at provincial level in China. Those indicators for social capital are highly correlated with regional economic performance. Statistical analysis shows that social capital has a significant and positive effect on a long-term provincial economic growth. This relationship exists after controlling policy, macro location factors, and per capita GDP in the initial year. The empirical findings indicate that institutions, culture and social relations are critical for regional development in China. Therefore, the creation and support of social capital should be paid more attention to when making regional policy.     

改革开放30年来中国农业生产总体评价及其预测模型的建立

采用近30年来的统计数据,对改革开放以来中国农业生产的总体趋势进行了分析描述,认为以农林牧渔业增加值(第一产业增加值)表示的农业生产水平总体上呈现上升趋势;通过对影响农业生产的因素运用因子分析法进行综合归纳,认为投入因子、土地面积因子以及价格因子是影响农业生产最主要的公共因子。最后运用投入因子、土地面积因子以及价格因子建立了中国农业生产总体情况的预测模型。     

基于WRF模式的陕西两次区域性秋季暴雨的数值模拟

2005年陕西秋淋天气明显且偏晚,通过WRF模式对秋淋期间的两次区域性暴雨模拟结果显示,暴雨雨带走向、强降雨中心位置以及强降水出现的时间段等都与实况基本吻合,预报时效可达36-48小时;模式能成功地模拟出暴雨的主要影响系统和不同时段的风场演变变化.分析表明,利用该模式可以对不同类型暴雨进行机理分析和研究,能够作为未来客观预报陕西转折性天气和暴雨天气一种新的技术手段和工具.     

R／S AND WAVELET ANALYSIS ON EVOLUTIONARY PROCESS OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC DISPARITY IN CHINA DURING PAST 50 YEARS

1INTRODUCTIONThere have been many literatures about the regional disparity of economic development in China since the late 1970s. Some scholars argue that disparity of re-gional development in China has been expanded since 1978, but others find it has reduced since 1978. The findings of some scholars show that the evolutionary process of the disparity of regional economic develop-ment in China follows the inverted U shape, but some others do not think so. What is the true tendency, and i…     

Relationship between economic growth and water environmental quality of Anshan city in Northeast China

Based on the decomposition model of environmental quality and univariate regression model, the relationships of industrial wastewater drainage with economic scale, economic structure, and technological level in Anshan, a mining city in Northeast China, were studied. The results showed that, due to scale effect, the drainage of three important industrial wastewater pollutants (COD, NH3-N and petroleum) increased 8505t, 671t and 384t, respectively, and due to structure effect, those pollutants drainage increased 3996t, 174t and 120t from 2001 to 2006. While due to technological effect, the drainage of COD, NH3-N and petroleum reduced 4452t, 458t and 331t, and due to cross effect, those pollutants drainage reduced 7270t, 575t and 476t simultaneously. Meantime, the relationships between household consumption structure and domestic sewage discharge were analyzed, and domestic sewage discharges in different income levels were also compared. The results showed that, the domestic sewage discharges would increase 376t with 1000 yuan (RMB) increased in the traffic and communication consumption, and they would be 344t, 219t, 428t, 1873t, respectively, in housing consumption, food consumption, medical consumption, miscellaneous commodity consumption. The proportion of domestic sewage discharge increased for high income residents significantly, but reduced for lower income residents. The industrial wastewater pollutants drainage tends to be reduced by technical progress, while domestic sewage discharge will be a more important factor for urban water environment quality.     

滑坡灾害预测预报信息共享平台

 滑坡是最常见的一种地质灾害,其主要诱因是降雨。滑坡灾害多发生在雨量充沛地域或洪水季节。南京市受自然环境和地质环境的影响,滑坡是其最主要的地质灾害类型之一,为了有效地预测滑坡的发生情况并最大限度地减少滑坡灾害为南京带来的损失,本文在已有的南京市地质灾害易发区等研究的成果上,结合南京市历史滑坡数据、气象资料和地质灾害预测数学模型构建了南京市滑坡灾害预测方法并确定了南京市滑坡灾害预测预报技术流程。在该预测方法和技术流程的基础上,本文同时应用了数据库技术、ArcGIS Server技术、AJAX远程调用技术、网页局部刷新技术和地图缓存技术等,融合地理信息系统功能与滑坡灾害预测预报业务功能,开发了南京市滑坡灾害预测预报信息共享平台。该平台可以对滑坡灾害基础数据和实时气象数据动态、科学地管理,结合南京市实时降雨数据可实现滑坡灾害预测预报并将灾害信息实时在线发布,同时提供对滑坡灾害信息的查询、检索、统计分析等功能,最终通过该信息共享平台,为南京市滑坡灾害的防灾减灾提供决策支持,为其他需要建立滑坡灾害预测信息共享平台的城市提供参考。