21世纪重力与磁法勘探的展望

对21世纪重力与磁法勘探的仪器，数据处理技术，解释理论与方法，应用领域等方面的发展方向进行了分析与展望，发展航空标量，矢量，梯度重力测量和航空全梯度磁力测量，三分量磁力测量，提高综合信息采集能力；开展卫星重磁测量，综合卫星，航空，地面重磁测量资料研究地球结构与构造；发展高精度数据处理技术；重磁异常弱信号的提取，不同深度重磁异常的划分，低纬底变倾角化磁极以及位场面延拓；发展复杂条件下三维重磁场多参数综合反演可视化技术以及快速自动反演技术；探索磁性多参数的应用新领域，充分发挥磁法在环境污染调查中的作用并开拓应用新领域。     

美国地质调查局地质处制订21世纪工作计划

随着美国地质调查局差点被撤消及随后的调整,美国地质调查局地质处已完成其２０００～２０１０年科学战略计划的制订。波伦（ＳｔｅｖｅｎＲ．Ｂｏｈｌｅｎ）说,地质处这次制定的计划较之美国地质调查局１９９６～２００５年的总体工作计划重点更加突出。现任代理副首席地质科学家的波伦称地质处的科学战略计划是一个明智的选择。波伦在给地质处的备忘录中写道,“４０年前,大家普遍把了解地球内部构造作为重要目标……,我认为我们今天才刚刚认识到地质学与生物科学、大气科学是一个统一体,它好像一个完整的综合体系,使我们能更多、更…     

Seismotectonic scheme of Central and Eastern Europe

Summary The distribution of earthquake foci in the crust and the upper mantle indicates the position of mobile zones. Comparing epicentral maps of Central and Eastern Europe, known tectonic lines, results of deep seismic sounding and gravimetric survey enables a scheme of potential seismogenic zones, which correspond to active fault zones separating plates and blocks in the area, to be compiled. The level of earthquake activity varies along the investigated boundaries and can be considered as a measure of the intensity of the present geodynamic processes.Paper presented at the joint symposium AlO of the XVIIth General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission and of the 7th Annual Meeting of the European Geophysical Society, Budapest (Hungary), Aug. 21. – 29., 1980.     

回顾与展望——21世纪的固体地球物理

回顾了20世纪固体地球物理学的发展历程和对地球科学发展的贡献，阐述了地球物理学在社会发展中的先导作用和地位，并以中国反射地震方法取得巨大成功的实例，说明国民经济建设的巨大需求，是地球物理学发的重要动力。最后，给出了21世纪地球物理学的发展方向和研究重点，强调地球物理学科要与时俱进，改革创新。     

Hazardous Waste Remediation: A 21st Century Problem

The United Stales, both the private and the public sector, is currently spending approximately $10 billion annually on environmental cleanup. In 1991. the Waste Management Research and Educational Institute at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville completed an exhaustive study that estimated if we continue to pursue current policies the total cost of the cleanup will be approximately $750 billion — in 1990 dollars. This suggests that given current technology and the current rate of expenditure, cleanup will take 75 years - well into the latter half of the next century.
The legacy of environmental problems associated with our weapons complex is enormous. The Tennessee group estimated that one-third of the total cost of cleanup — approximately $240 billion — will be borne by the Department of Energy (DOR). Currently, approximately one-half of the annual expenditures for cleanup conies from DOE —$5 billion, one-third of the DOE budget.
In contrast, the amount of funds for basic research on environmental cleanup problems is small. The federal government spends less than $100 million annually for basic research — less than 1 percent of the total annual expenditure of $10 billion. This level of funding for basic research seems shortsighted given the current status of cleanup technologies and the expected long duration of the problem.     

青藏高原的地震构造与地震活动

根据地震地热说原理和中国西部的大地构造资料,讨论了青藏高原的地震构造活动模式及地震活动特征,认为兴都库什地震柱和缅甸地震柱是控制青藏高原构造运动和地震活动的主因,青藏高原深达70km的巨厚地壳是内陆地区壳内强震频发的有利构造条件,利用35km以下青藏高原的下地壳地震和周边地区的壳下地震活动动态,参考历史震例,可以为研究区内的壳内强震活动与火山活动提供可能的活动强度、活动地点及大致活动时段等前兆性指标,并取得了初步成效。利用地震柱概念对青藏高原地震构造活动模式的解释似乎更加贴近青藏高原的地震活动特征,可以更加合理地解释壳内强震或者火山发生的成因,也可以预测未来几年内地震柱及其影响区的活动趋势。     

面向21世纪的地震地下流体科学问题与发展

对地下流体科学国内外最新研究动态和成果进行了介绍。并在此基础上指出：基于先进观测技术的可靠观测资料是提高地震地下流体理论研究水平的关键。最后分析了目前存在的主要问题,并相应地提出今后我国地震地下流体学科的发展方向：建设新一代地震地下流体科学观测台网;发展地震地下流体前兆观测台阵和深井观测;开展野外观测实验研究、室内高温高压实验研究和高精度大型数值模拟研究。     

Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century

We estimate the rise in global average sea level from satellite altimeter data for 1993?C2009 and from coastal and island sea-level measurements from 1880 to 2009. For 1993?C2009 and after correcting for glacial isostatic adjustment, the estimated rate of rise is 3.2 ± 0.4 mm year^?1 from the satellite data and 2.8 ± 0.8 mm year^?1 from the in situ data. The global average sea-level rise from 1880 to 2009 is about 210 mm. The linear trend from 1900 to 2009 is 1.7 ± 0.2 mm year^?1 and since 1961 is 1.9 ± 0.4 mm year^?1. There is considerable variability in the rate of rise during the twentieth century but there has been a statistically significant acceleration since 1880 and 1900 of 0.009 ± 0.003 mm year^?2 and 0.009 ± 0.004 mm year^?2, respectively. Since the start of the altimeter record in 1993, global average sea level rose at a rate near the upper end of the sea level projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change??s Third and Fourth Assessment Reports. However, the reconstruction indicates there was little net change in sea level from 1990 to 1993, most likely as a result of the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991.     

华北地区与青藏高原地区强震孕育过程相关性的动力学解释

根据不同学者对中国应力场的研究结果,普遍认为中国大陆板内构造变形活动的主要驱动力源来自印度板块与欧亚大陆的碰撞挤压作用,两大板块的汇聚作用主要发生在喜马拉雅碰撞带和帕米尔碰撞带,欧亚板块在这一碰撞带承受了印度板块的强烈挤压作用。全国GPS地壳运动观测结果也证明了以上的研究结论,基于国家攀登计划建立的全国GPS网21点的复测结果,     

21世纪中国城市海洋灾害防御战略研究

我国有漫长的海岸线,沿海地区是我国经济发展最快的地区,但是海洋灾害的频繁发生及其造成的经济损失年均增长率的不断提高,已经成为制约我国海洋经济和沿海经济持续稳定发展的重要因素.基于海洋灾害的特殊性、海洋对社会发展与日俱增的重要性,对影响我国沿海地区的海洋灾害及其危害性进行了系统、详细的探讨,并根据我国对海洋灾害的防御能力提出了防灾减灾的战略措施.     

Seismotectonic position of the Kaliningrad September 21, 2004, earthquake

The paper presents an alternative consistent seismotectonic model of the Kaliningrad (Russia) September 21, 2004, earthquake according to which source zones of the two strongest shocks were confined to a N-S fault off the Sambiiskii Peninsula in the Kaliningrad region. A left-lateral deformation fractured a local crustal zone between the town of Yantarnyi and the settlement of Bakalino. The model was constructed with the use of a method developed by the authors for structural analysis of gravity and magnetic data. Initial materials are revised in terms of the EMS-98 macroseismic scale, and modified maps showing the shaking intensity in the NW part of the Sambiiskii Peninsula are compiled.     

Seismotectonic and refraction seismic investigations in the border region between the Eastern Alps and the Pannonian Basin

Focal solutions of four strong earthquakes and P signals of twenty-four smaller shocks of the active Mur-Mürz Valley, the Semmering Pass and the Vienna Basin. An equivalent slip rate of 0.03 This feature agrees with the model of a subsiding Pannonian Basin. An equivalent slip rate of 0.03 cm/year is roughly estimated from earthquake data 1903–1978. This rate does not include the creep rate, but it gives an idea of the magnitude of speed of geological processes in this area.Refraction seismic data from the Alpine Longitudinal Profile 75 shows a low velocity zone in the upper crust of the seismic active East Alpine area but not in the aseismic part of the Pannonian Basin.The eastern margin of the Eastern Alps and the Carpathians limits the Pannonian Basin, which has a special and interesting geological history. Many authors (Szadezky-Kardoss, 1966;Stegena, Ceszy andHorvàth, 1975) presented models of the genesis of the Pannonian Basin. They apply the concept of the mantle diapirs to explain the following facts:subsiding of the Pannonian Plate in comparison to the Alps, high terrestrial heat flow within the Pannonian Plate, decrease of the Moho depth from 40 km below the Eastern border of the Alps to 27 km below the Pannonian Basin. They claim that the Alpine-Carpathian interarc and basin represent the final stage of an orogenetic system where subcrustal erosion leads to a thinning of the crust. Consequently the surface subsides and is covered by young sediments. They proved that this subsidence and sedimentation is more or less in isostatic equilibrium. The aim of this paper is to provide new arguments using focal solutions and refraction seismic investigations.     

Seismotectonic characteristics of the northern flank and axial part of the Tajik Depression (the Garm Geodynamic Research Area)

Detailed estimates of seismotectonic strain (STS) characteristics are obtained for the upper crust from focal mechanisms of numerous earthquakes (M ≥ 1) in the northern and axial parts of the Tajik Depression (the Garm area, Tajikistan). It is shown that, in the majority of cases, a close interrelation exists between tectonic structures and the STS type. Changes in the STS characteristics in various areas of the depression admit a reasonable geological interpretation. Based on geological, seismological, and geodetic data, a unified scheme of deformation of layered rocks of the Tajik Depression is presented. The main factor controlling the deformation process is the extrusion of the rocks in the axial part of the depression in the NNW and SSE directions (with the formation of imbricate thrusts) and in the WSW direction. The latter case is characterized by left-lateral motions in fault zones in the south of the depression (including the Darvaz fault) and by right-lateral motions in northern zones (the Peter the First Range) located from seismological data. In our opinion, such expulsion is caused mainly by an increase of the volume of layered rocks in the Tajik Depression, apparently due to deep fluids penetrating into these rocks and supplying additional mineral material. However, it is also possible that the region is influenced, to an extent, by the general subhorizontal N-S compression associated with the convergence of the Indian and Eurasian lithospheric plates in accordance with the concept of plate tectonics.     

Results of Crust and Mantle Soundings in Central and Northern Europe in the 21st Century (Review)

The first decade of 21st century is characterized by the appearance of new approaches to deep induction soundings. The theory of magnetovariation and magnetotelluric soundings was generalised or corrected. Spatial derivatives of response functions (induction arrows) were obtained for the ultra-long periods. New phenomena have been detected by this method: secular variations of the Earth’s apparent resistivity and the rapid changes of induction arrows over the last 50 years. The first one can be correlated with the number of earthquakes, and the second one–with geomagnetic jerks in Central Europe. The extensive studies of geoelectrical structure of the crust and mantle were realized in the frame of a series of international projects. New information about geoelectrical structures of the crust in Northern Europe and Ukraine was obtained by deep electromagnetic soundings involving controlled powerful sources. An influence of the crust magnetic permeability on the deep sounding results was confirmed.     

青藏高原东缘龙日坝断裂带南段晚第四纪活动及其构造意义

因缺少详细的地质调查,关于龙日坝断裂带南段是否具有强烈的晚第四纪活动及其在青藏高原东缘应变分配中承担的作用目前尚不清楚。卫星影像解译和野外调查结果表明龙日坝断裂带南段仅东南支存在晚第四纪活动,全长约50km,总体以右旋走滑为主,兼有逆断分量,全新世以来右旋平均走滑速率约为0.6mm/a,平均垂直滑动速率约为0.4mm/a。龙日坝断裂带南段活动强度较中段明显偏弱,但具备发生M_W7级左右地震的能力,在距今约800年以来曾发生过地表破裂型事件。结合重定位地震结果来看,龙日坝断裂带西侧和龙门山断裂带地震活跃,之间的丹巴地区可能主要表现为褶皱变形而地震活动微弱。青藏高原东缘之下的滑脱面自川西高原到四川盆地从约15km逐渐变深至20km左右,而又变浅,约为10km,这种滑脱面的深度变化可能是龙门山隆升和孕震的驱动机制。这项研究有助于川西地区的地震危险性评价和深入理解青藏高原东缘的应变分配和隆升机制。     

Projected Changes in Water Balance Components of 11 Large River Basins during the 21st Century and Their Uncertainties

Water Resources - Changes in the water balance components of 11 large-scale river basins due to possible climate change during the 21st century were simulated with the land surface model SWAP and...     

高分辨率地震成像研究--21世纪地震学发展的一个重要趋势

随着宽频带地震观测技术的不断发展,全球及区域数字地震观测台网的密度正在不断加大,用于流动地震观测的宽频带地震仪的数量将继续迅速增加。与此同时,宽频带数字地震观测资料的积累速率按指数增长,这意味着震源波裂过程及地球内部结构的高分辨率地震成像研究将成为２１世纪地震学发展的重要趋势。地震学与地球动力学研究的关系将日趋紧密,宽频带流动地震观测的作用和重要性必将与日俱增。