祁连山中东段地区中小地震震源机制和区域应力场

利用哥伦比亚大学 GCMT 目录给出的祁连山中东段地区中强地震震源机制资料,研究较大区域（34°-41°N,100°-106°E）的应力场;利用该地区布设的中法微震数字监测台网多年监测资料和甘肃数字监测台网资料,使用 P 波和 S 波初动及振幅比联合反演方法,反演中小地震震源机制解和发震应力场。结果表明,地区构造应力大致为北东40°-45°水平向压应力;景泰地区主压应力方向约北东45°,绝大多数地震为走滑型。天祝-古浪地区有相当部分的逆断层地震分布,主压应力方向约60°,P 轴仰角在10°左右优势分布,大致为水平应力场。这与大区域构造应力场和断层实际分布基本一致。     

随机溶洞介质模型及其波场模拟

提出了一种模拟构造随机溶洞介质模型的新方法.从现有的随机介质模型理论出发,以混合型连续随机介质的每一个局部最大值点作为一个溶洞分布区的中心点,本文引入了溶洞分布区的局部半径d和溶洞面积p这两个模型特征量,采用阀值截取方法模拟构造各种不同形式的随机溶洞介质模型.用局部半径d描述溶洞介质在大尺度上的离散程度,用溶洞面积p描述在各个溶洞分布区中溶洞介质的面积.通过选择从不同的混合型连续随机介质模型出发,选择不同的局部半径d和溶洞面积p,使用阀值截取法,我们可以最终得到能灵活、准确地描述实际复杂溶洞介质的各种随机溶洞介质模型.本文最后在各种不同形式的随机溶洞介质模型中,作了平面弹性波自激自收记录的数值模拟,并得出了一些结论.     

Seasonal Sensitivity on COBEL-ISBA Local Forecast System for Fog and Low Clouds

Skillful low visibility forecasts are essential for air-traffic managers to effectively regulate traffic and to optimize air-traffic control at international airports. For this purpose, the COBEL-ISBA local numerical forecast system has been implemented at Paris CDG international airport. This local approach is robust owing to the assimilation of detailed local observations. However, even with dedicated observations and initialization, uncertainties remain in both initial conditions and mesoscale forcings. The goal of the research presented here is to address the sensitivity of COBEL-ISBA forecast to initial conditions and mesoscale forcings during the winter season 2002–2003. The main sources of uncertainty of COBEL-ISBA input parameters have been estimated and the evaluation of parameter uncertainty on the forecasts has been studied. A budget strategy is applied during the winter season to quantify COBEL-ISBA sensitivity. This study is the first step toward building a local ensemble prediction system based on COBEL-ISBA. The conclusions of this work point out the potential for COBEL-ISBA ensemble forecasting and quantify sources of uncertainty that lead to dispersion.     

Wave characteristics and tectonic-sedimentation evolution of foreland thrust fault of Micang Mountain

In this paper,the technology of wave process method for sedimentation is first adopted in the research of the foreland thrust fault of Micang Mountain with respect of oil and reservoir’s formation and tectonic and sedimentary evolution. From the fluctuation characteristics,we could make conclusions in the foreland thrust belt of Micang Mountain that,there existed 2 first-order sedimentary cycles (220 Ma),corresponding to Caledonian-Hercynian and Indo-Chinese-Yanshan-Himalayan tectonic cycles respec-tively; there existed 4 second-order sedimentary cycles (10 Ma),corresponding to two sedimentation peak period and two denudation peak periods in research zone; there existed 12 third-order sedimen-tary cycles (35 Ma) and 21 fourth-sedimentary cycles (20 Ma). These 33 cycles in the research zone corresponded to the sedimentation-denudation process in different periods,furthermore,their fluctua-tion characteristics bore the genetic relationship with the development law of source,reservoir and cap rocks: the source rock had the tendency to develop at the turning part between wave crest and wave trough,or at the superposition of wave turning part in different periods,presenting like "X"; most res-ervoir rocks developed at the place of wave peak; the development of cap rock was located in the wave trough on the right of sedimentation-denudation datum line. As a result,through the application of wave process method for sedimentation,we could rediscover the understanding of the tectonic and sedimentary evolution from another prospective,meanwhile,it enables to make prediction about the development rule of source,reservoir and cap rocks,which means a significant importance to the re-search of oil and reservoir’s forming condition.     

波浪地震联合作用下砂质海床沉管隧道动力响应分析

对于埋置于海床表层的沉管隧道,波浪作用是不容忽视的常遇海洋环境因素。不同于陆域地下结构,海底沉管隧道地震反应分析和安全评价应考虑波浪的联合作用。基于Biot完全耦合的动力有效应力分析方法,对波浪与地震联合作用下砂质海床-隧道之间的动力相互作用特性进行研究。研究结果表明,相较仅有地震作用,波浪荷载加速了沉管隧道周围海床地震残余超孔压的增长和渐进液化进程,增大了沉管隧道上浮量;波浪与地震联合作用对应的β谱谱值更大,且卓越反应周期向长周期偏移;波浪对海床地震动的影响深度有限,仅对海床地表以下15 m范围内的地震动有放大效应。忽略波浪环境作用对砂质海床场地设计地震动参数的影响,对于沉管隧道抗震设计是偏于不安全的。     

TOC changes in the process of thermal evolution of source rock and its controls

Through geological observation, simulation in laboratory and numerical modeling, the factors that control the changes in total organic content (TOC) of source rock have been studied. When the formula DTOC=(TOC0-TOC)/TOC0 (original organic carbon content in the rock) is used to measure the TOC (total organic carbon content) changes in the source rock through geological time, the degrees and directions of such changes are determined by losses and relative amounts both of organic and inorganic matter in the source rock. The DTOC equation, which is used to calculate the loss rate in the process of maturation for the source rock, is therefore obtained by analyzing the mass balance relations. For a certain type of source rock with a certain maturation history, the changes of its TOC respond only to the rates of hydrocarbon generation and expulsion. In actual cases of geological entities, DTOC generally ranges from -0.05 to 0.2, while the calculated reconversion coefficient (k) for organic carbon content remains between 0.90 and 1.25. Only in an ideal situation where there are extremely high rates of hydrocarbon generation and expulsion can the DTOC value experience significant changes, with k reaching up to 2.5. It is concluded, therefore, that the criterion for carbonates source rock assessment, based on reconverting the TOC to the value of its original state, may have overestimated the course of the "carbon-reduction", which is likely in many cases to make a poor source rock sound better.     

信息的不可修改性与当代科学某些问题

本文指出了"信息确定性"所涉及的信息的不可 修改性、信息"保真性"是认识观念的重大变革。 以取消数量稳定性限制条件,得出了非线性不稳 定具有特殊性信息及其周期性,并可解释翁文波 的"可公度"法是运用了特殊性信息的特殊规律, 在物质演化问题上不能将数量的一般规律拓广至 特殊性信息中;由此涉及了当代科学没有解决物 质演化的"时间"、特殊性、非惯性系及其数量分 析伪造信息等问题。信息的客观存在性和不可修 改性,已实质上表明了将近代的"信息科学"的 信息分析等同于当代科学的数量处理是认识上的 误解。即"信息"不能等同于"数量"。     

宁夏及邻区尾波Q值分布特征

应用宁夏9个台站1986年后记录的宁夏及邻区132次地震的200条DD－1仪模拟记录，对宁夏及邻区的分区尾波Q值进行了研究，结果表明，分区尾波Q值主要与地质构造有关。Q值相对较低的区域为吉兰泰盆地，银川盆地南段的吴忠，灵武，阿拉善左旗西南，中卫至海原之间，吴忠，灵武至盐池之间；相对较高的区域为乌海及附近，贺兰山，永宁至大武口之间。     

地震波时间线性度在安徽及邻区中强震中短期预报中的应用研究

应用地震波波形时间线性度方法 ,对安徽及邻区二次中强震前后及近 8年来本省多台地震波资料 ,进行了时间线性度 r值及其初始部分振动的平均半周期 Th 值分析研究。结果认为 :1本省及邻近区域中强震前 ,震中一定范围内存在着 r值和 Th 值低值异常现象 ,异常持续时间一般在 4～ 1 2个月 ,异常恢复后至主震发生时间一般在 0～ 1 2个月内 ;2震前 r值和 Th值的异常变化 ,实际上反映的是区域应力场的调整变化     

Two-dimensional translation,rocking, and waves in a building during soil-structure interaction excited by a plane earthquake SV-wave pulse

A two-dimensional (2-D) model of a building supported by a rectangular, flexible foundation embedded in the soil is analyzed for excitation by an incident plane SV-wave. The incidence is below the critical angle. The building is assumed to be anisotropic and linear while the soil and the foundation are assumed to be isotropic and can experience nonlinear deformations. In general the work spent for the development of nonlinear strains in the soil can consume a significant part of the input wave energy and thus less energy is available for the excitation of the building. We show that the energy distribution in the building depends on the nature of the incident wave and differs substantially between the cases of incident P- and SV-waves. However, for both excitation by a plane SV-wave pulse and excitation by a P-wave, we show that the nonlinear response in the soil and the foundation does not significantly change the nature of excitation of the base of the building. It is noted that the building response can be approximated by translation and rocking of the base only for excitation by long, strong motion waves.     

Input and system identification of the Hualien soil–structure interaction system using earthquake response data

This paper presents an input and system identification technique for a soil–structure interaction system using earthquake response data. Identification is carried out on the Hualien large‐scale seismic test structure, which was built in Taiwan for international joint research. The identified quantities are the input ground acceleration as well as the shear wave velocities of the near‐field soil regions and Young's moduli of the shell sections of the structure. The earthquake response analysis on the soil–structure interaction system is carried out using the finite element method incorporating the infinite element formulation for the unbounded layered soil medium and the substructured wave input technique. The criterion function for the parameter estimation is constructed using the frequency response amplitude ratios of the earthquake responses measured at several points of the structure, so that the information on the input motion may be excluded. The constrained steepest descent method is employed to obtain the revised parameters. The simulated earthquake responses using the identified parameters and input ground motion show excellent agreement with the measured responses. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.