1-g Experimental investigation of bi-layer soil response and kinematic pile bending

The effect of soil inhomogeneity and material nonlinearity on kinematic soil–pile interaction and ensuing bending under the passage of vertically propagating seismic shear waves in layered soil, is investigated by means of 1-g shaking table tests and nonlinear numerical simulations. To this end, a suite of scale model tests on a group of five piles embedded in two-layers of sand in a laminar container at the shaking table facility in BLADE Laboratory at University of Bristol, are reported. Results from white noise and sine dwell tests were obtained and interpreted by means of one-dimensional lumped parameter models, suitable for inhomogeneous soil, encompassing material nonlinearity. A frequency range from 0.1 Hz to 100 Hz and 5 Hz to 35 Hz for white noise and sine dwell tests, respectively, and an input acceleration range from 0.015 g to 0.1 g, were employed. The paper elucidates that soil nonlinearity and inhomogeneity strongly affect both site response and kinematic pile bending, so that accurate nonlinear analyses are often necessary to predict the dynamic response of pile foundations.     

Dynamic soil–structure interaction analysis of a telescope at the Javalambre Astrophysical Observatory

This paper presents the dynamic soil–structure analysis of the main telescope T250 of the Observatorio Astrofísico de Javalambre (OAJ, Javalambre Astrophysical Observatory) on the Pico del Buitre. Vibration control has been of prime concern in the design, since astrophysical observations may be hindered by mechanical vibration of optical equipment due to wind loading. The telescope manufacturer therefore has imposed a minimal natural frequency of 10 Hz for the supporting telescope pier. Dynamic soil–structure interaction may significantly influence the lowest natural frequency of a massive construction as a telescope pier. The structure clamped at its base has a resonance frequency of 14.3 Hz. A coupled finite element–boundary element (FE–BE) model of the telescope pier that accounts for the dynamic interaction of the piled foundation and the soil predicts a resonance frequency of 11.2 Hz, demonstrating the significant effect of dynamic soil–structure interaction. It is further investigated to what extent the coupled FE–BE model can be simplified in order to reduce computation time. The assumption of a rigid pile cap allows us to account for dynamic soil–structure interaction in a simplified way. A coupled FE–BE analysis with a rigid pile cap predicts a resonance frequency of 11.7 Hz, demonstrating a minor effect of the pile cap flexibility on the resonance frequency of the telescope pier. The use of an analytical model for the pile group results in an overestimation of the dynamic soil stiffness. This error is due to the large difference between the actual geometry and the square pile cap model for which the parameters have been tuned.     

Three-dimensional numerical thermal and rheological modelling in the central Fennoscandian Shield

A three-dimensional model for the central Fennoscandian Shield was constructed for analysing the thermal, the rheological and the structural conditions in the lithosphere. The mesh covers a rectangular area in the southern Finland with horizontal dimensions of 500 km × 400 km and a depth extent of 100 km. Structural boundaries are derived from the several deep seismic soundings carried out in the area. Constructed model is first used in the calculation of the thermal and the rheological models and secondly in analysing the stress and the deformational conditions with the obtained rheology. Thermal and structural models are solved with the finite element method. The calculated surface HFD is between 40 and 48 mW m⁻² in the Proterozoic southern part and below 40 mW m⁻² in the older and northern Archaean part of the model. The calculated rheological strength shows a layered structure with two individual rheologically weak layers in the crust and strong layer in the upper part of the lower crust. The minimum brittle–ductile transition (BDT) depth is around 10 km in the southern part of the model while in the north and north-eastern parts the BDT depth is around 45–50 km. Comparison with the focal depth data shows that as most of the earthquakes occur no deeper than the depth of 10 km are they located in the brittle regime. Resulting stress conditions and possible regions of deformation after the model is subjected to pressure of 50 MPa reveals that the stress field is quite uniformly distributed in different crustal layers and that the elastic parameters control more the state of the stress than the applied rheological structure. In the upper crust, the stress intensity has values between 42 and 45 MPa whereas in the middle crust the values are around 50 MPa. Comparison of the 3-D model with earlier 2-D models shows that some differences in the results are to be expected.     

Seismic response of deep Quaternary sediments in historical center of L’Aquila City (central Italy)

On 6 April 2009 a M_w=6.1 earthquake produced severe destruction and damage over the historic center of L’Aquila City (central Italy), in which the accelerometer stations AQK and AQU recorded a large amount of near-fault ground motion data. This paper analyzes the recorded ground motions and compares the observed peak accelerations and the horizontal to vertical response spectral ratios with those revealed from numerical simulations. The finite element method is considered herein to perform dynamic modeling on the soil profile underlying the seismic station AQU. The subsurface model, which is based on the reviewed surveys that were carried out in previous studies, consists of 200–400 m of Quaternary sediments overlying a Meso-Cenozoic carbonate bedrock. The Martin-Finn-Seed's pore-water pressure model is used in the simulations. The horizontal to vertical response spectral ratio that is observed during the weak seismic events shows three predominant frequencies at about 14 Hz, 3 Hz and 0.6 Hz, which may be related to the computed seismic motion amplification occurring at the shallow colluvium, at the top and base of the fluvial-lacustrine sequence, respectively. During the 2009 L’Aquila main shock the predominant frequency of 14 Hz shifts to lower values probably due to a peculiar wave-field incidence angle. The predominant frequency of 3 Hz shifts to lower values when the earthquake magnitude increases, which may be associated to the progressive softening of soil due to the excess pore-water pressure generation that reaches a maximum value of about 350 kPa in the top of fluvial-lacustrine sequence. The computed vertical peak acceleration underestimates the experimental value and the horizontal to vertical peak acceleration ratio that is observed at station AQU decreases when the earthquake magnitude increases, which reveals amplification of the vertical component of ground motion probably due to near-source effects.     

Seismic hazard evaluation in Anjar city area of western India: Microtremor array measurement

In western India during the Bhuj earthquake (Mw 7.6) on January 26, 2001, the Anjar City at ~30 km southwest of Bhuj experienced three types of damage scenario: severely damaged, less damaged and non-damaged. Similar damage patterns were also observed for the 1819 (Mw 7.8) and the 1956 (Mw 6.0) earthquakes. Microtremor array measurements were conducted in and around the Anjar city to examine the strength of soil structures and damage pattern. Significant differences are observed in frequencies and amplitudes in horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) using microtremor measurements. The severely- damaged site shows two peak amplitudes: 2.8 at 1.2 Hz; and 4.0 at 8.0 Hz. The less-damaged site also shows two amplitudes: 2.5 and 2.1 at 1.4 Hz; and 2.0 Hz, respectively. The non-damaged site, on the other hand, shows that the HVSR curves become almost flatter. Similar results for three types of damage scenario based on analyses of earthquake records are also observed for the study area. The microtremor array measurements has revealed shear wave velocity V_s≥400 m/s at 18 m depth in the non-damaged, at 40 m in the less-damaged and at 60 m depth in the severely-damaged sites. The site amplitudes and the V_s values show a good correlation with the soil characteristics and damage pattern, suggesting that strength of soil layers at varying depths is a dictating factor for the estimate of the earthquake risk evaluation of the area under study.     

Modeled tephra ages from lake sediments,base of Redoubt Volcano,Alaska

A 5.6-m-long lake sediment core from Bear Lake, Alaska, located 22 km southeast of Redoubt Volcano, contains 67 tephra layers deposited over the last 8750 cal yr, comprising 15% of the total thickness of recovered sediment. Using 12 AMS ¹⁴C ages, along with the ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb activities of recent sediment, we evaluated different models to determine the age–depth relation of the core, and to determine the age of each tephra deposit. The selected age model is based on a mixed-effect regression that was passed through the adjusted tephra-free depth of each dated layer. The estimated age uncertainty of the 67 tephras averages ±105 yr (95% confidence intervals). Tephra-fall frequency at Bear Lake was among the highest during the past 500 yr, with eight tephras deposited compared to an average of 3.7/500 yr over the last 8500 yr. Other periods of increased tephra fall occurred 2500–3500, 4500–5000, and 7000–7500 cal yr. Our record suggests that Bear Lake experienced extended periods (1000–2000 yr) of increased tephra fall separated by shorter periods (500–1000 yr) of apparent quiescence. The Bear Lake sediment core affords the most comprehensive tephrochronology from the base of the Redoubt Volcano to date, with an average tephra-fall frequency of one every 130 yr.     

Impact and cyclic shaking on loose sand properties in laminar box using gap sensors

This paper focuses on using high-frequency GAP-SENSORs (GSs), accelerometers, and load cells in a laminar shear box (LSB) filled with loose Toyoura sand to understand the effects of impact loads and cyclic shaking at 1-G on soil properties. The shear wave velocity at small strain (V_s) was calculated directly from first arrival reference using displacement time-history of two GSs under impact loading. Moreover, from first peak using the reduced deformation amplitude technique, damping ratio was calculated. In addition, shaking table tests were performed under harmonic loading with amplitude of acceleration inside the model ground varying from 0.02 g to 1 g. The frequencies of excitation varied from 1 Hz to 10 Hz. GSs and inside accelerometers were used to directly measure the outside lateral deformation and shear stress at different elevations of LSB, respectively. Results show that the shear modulus (G) and the damping ratio (D) behavior of model sand are generally consistent with the behavior presented by similar tests using only accelerometers. In addition, damping ratio increases as frequency loading increases. Characteristic changes in two shear stress components in shaking loading conditions were also investigated using high precision inside load cells.     

Experimental and numerical evaluation of the effectiveness of a stiff wave barrier in the soil

This paper discusses the design, the installation, and the experimental and numerical evaluation of the effectiveness of a stiff wave barrier in the soil as a mitigation measure for railway induced vibrations. A full scale in situ experiment has been conducted at a site in El Realengo (Spain), where a barrier consisting of overlapping jet grout columns has been installed along a railway track. This barrier is stiff compared to the soil and has a depth of 7.5 m, a width of 1 m, and a length of 55 m. Geophysical tests have been performed prior to the installation of the barrier for the determination of the dynamic soil characteristics. Extensive measurements have been carried out before and after installation of the barrier, including free field vibrations during train passages, transfer functions between the track and the free field, and the track receptance. Measurements have also been performed at a reference section adjacent to the test section in order to verify the effect of changing train, track, and soil conditions over time. The in situ measurements show that the barrier is very effective: during train passages, a reduction of vibration levels by 5 dB is already obtained from 8 Hz upwards, while a peak reduction of about 12 dB is observed near 30 Hz immediately behind the barrier. The performance decreases further away from the jet grouting wall, but remains significant. The experimental results are also compared to numerical simulations based on a coupled finite element–boundary element methodology. A reasonable agreement between experiments and predictions is found, largely confirming the initially predicted reduction. This in situ test hence serves as a ‘proof of concept׳, demonstrating that stiff wave barriers are capable of significantly reducing vibration levels, provided that they are properly designed.     

Interpretation in terms of gyrotropic waves of Schumann-resonance-like line emissions observed at Nakatsugawa in possible association with nearby Japanese earthquakes

The observation of ULF/ELF electromagnetic waves in the frequency range below 50 Hz has been continued at Nakatsugawa (in the Gifu prefecture), Japan since 1998. This paper summarizes anomalous Schumann resonance (SR) phenomena and SR-like line emissions observed at Nakatsugawa in possible association with recent nearby earthquakes (EQs) (the 2004 Mid-Niigata prefecture and the 2007 Noto-Hanto (peninsula) EQs), which have been already described in detail by Ohta et al. (2009). The intensity of particular modes of SR increased before these large EQs and the excitation of other anomalous SR-like line emissions also existed at the frequency shifted by about 2 Hz from the typical SR modes. Since temporal changes of the anomalous SR modes and line emissions are synchronous in time, there might be a possibility that the line emission is a consequence of the anomalous SR. In this paper we propose an interpretation of those anomalous phenomena in terms of excitation of gyrotropic waves due to input wave from below with a band from 15 to 20 Hz as an exciter. The theoretical computational results seem to be generally consistent with the observational finding.     

TEC variations over the Mediterranean before and during the strong earthquake (M = 6.5) of 12th October 2013 in Crete,Greece

In this paper, the total electron content (TEC) data from eight global positioning system (GPS) stations of the EUREF network, provided by IONOLAB (Turkey), were analyzed using discrete Fourier analysis to investigate the TEC variations over the Mediterranean before and during the strong earthquake of 12th October 2013, which occurred west of Crete, Greece. In accordance with the results of similar analyses in the area, the main conclusions of this study are the following: (a) TEC oscillations in a broad range of frequencies occur randomly over an area of several hundred km from the earthquake and (b) high frequency oscillations (f ⩾ 0.0003 Hz, periods T ⩽ 60 m) may point to the location of the earthquake with questionable accuracy. The fractal characteristics of the frequency distribution may point to the locus of the earthquake with higher accuracy. We conclude that the lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) mechanism through acoustic or gravity waves could explain this phenomenology.     

Estimation of in-situ density and moisture content in HMA pavements based on GPR trace reflection amplitude using different frequencies

The basic goal of the present research is to investigate the estimation of both the in-situ density and moisture content within the Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) pavement layer(s) in a non-destructive way using Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) trace reflection amplitude. For this purpose, an extensive pavement survey was conducted using an air-coupled GPR system, operating at 1 GHz or alternatively with a 2 GHz central frequency. The collected data were analyzed comparatively for the two antennae. The variability of electric permittivity caused by variations in HMA material is discussed, while the effect of the different frequencies is compared on the ability to retrieve permittivity, in-situ density and moisture content of the compacted HMA material using relationships suggested in reviewed international literature. The main finding of the present research is that for the same type of HMA material, the assessment of the material properties appears to be independent from the two central frequencies of investigation. However, there is evidence concerning the variations between the GPR wave data for the two different frequencies. The research highlights that the increased penetration depth of the 1 GHz antenna can provide an increased identification of areas of potential moisture within the body of HMA layer, and suggests that the variations between the permittivity values for the two different frequencies could be used to assess the homogeneity of material density with depth as an indicator of the mixture compaction. Additional findings are included within the paper.     

A new electrical and mechanically detonatable shear wave source for near surface (0–30 m) seismic acquisition

We present a new, impulsive, horizontal shear source capable of performing long shot profiles in a time-efficient and repeatable manner. The new shear source is ground-coupled by eight 1/2″ (1.27 cm) × 2″ (5.08 cm) steel spikes. Blank shotshells (12-gauge) used as energy sources can be either mechanically or electrically detonated. Electrical fuses have a start time repeatability of < 50 μs. This source can be operated by a single individual, and takes only ~ 10 s between shots as opposed to ~ 30 s for six stacked hammer blows. To ensure complete safety, the shotshell holder is surrounded by a protective 6″ (15.24 cm)-thick barrel, a push-and-twist-locked breach, and a safety pin.We conducted field tests at the 17th Street Canal levee breach site in New Orleans, Louisiana (30.017° N 90.121° W) and at an instrumented test borehole at Millsaps College in Jackson, Mississippi (32.325° N 93.182° W) to compare our new source and a traditional hammer impact source. The new shear source produces a broader-band of frequencies (30–100 Hz cf. 30–60 Hz). Signal generated by the new shear source has signal-to-noise ratios equivalent to ~ 3 stacked hammer blows to the hammer impact source. Ideal source signals must be broadband in frequency, have a high SNR, be consistent, and have precise start times; all traits of the new shear source.     

Inferred fault geometry and slip distribution of the 2010 Jiashian,Taiwan, earthquake is consistent with a thick-skinned deformation model

We invert measurements of coseismic displacements from 139 continuously recorded GPS sites from the 2010, Jiashian, Taiwan earthquake to solve for fault geometry and slip distribution using an elastic uniform stress drop inversion. The earthquake occurred at a depth of ~ 23 km in an area between the Western Foothills fold-and-thrust belt and the crystalline high mountains of the Central Range, providing an opportunity to examine the deep fault structure under Taiwan. The inferred rupture plane is oblique to the prominent orientation of thrust faults and parallel to several previously recognized NW-striking transfer zones that appear to connect stepping thrusts. We find that a fault striking 318°–344° with dip of 26°–41° fits the observations well with oblique reverse-sinistral slip under a low stress drop of about 0.5 MPa. The derived geodetic moment of 2.92 × 10¹⁸ N-m is equivalent to a M_w = 6.24 earthquake. Coseismic slip is largely concentrated within a circular patch with a 10-km radius at the depth between 10 and 24 km and maximum slip of 190 mm. We suggest this earthquake ruptured the NW-striking Chishan transfer fault zone, which we interpret as a listric NE-dipping lateral ramp with oblique slip connecting stepping thrust faults (ramps). The inferred slip on the lateral ramp is considerably deeper than the 7–15 km deep detachment identified in previous studies of western Taiwan. We infer an active basal detachment under western Taiwan at a depth of at least ~ 20–23 km based on these inversion results. The earthquake may have nucleated at the base of the lateral ramp near the intersection with the basal detachment. Coulomb stress change calculations suggest that this earthquake moved several NE-striking active thrust faults in western Taiwan nearer to failure.     

Temporal changes in electrical resistivity at Sakurajima volcano from continuous magnetotelluric observations

Continuous magnetotelluric (MT) measurements were conducted from May 2008 to July 2009 at Sakurajima, one of the most active volcanoes in Japan. Two observation sites were established at locations 3.3 km east and 3 km west–northwest of the summit crater. At both observation sites, the high-quality component of the impedance tensor (Zyx) showed variations in apparent resistivity of approximately ± 20% and phase change of ± 2°, which continued for 20–180 days in the frequency range between 320 and 4 Hz. The start of the period of changes in apparent resistivity approximately coincided with the start of uplift in the direction of the summit crater, as observed by a tiltmeter, which is one of the most reliable pieces of equipment with which to detect magma intrusion beneath a volcano. A 2D inversion of MT impedance suggests that the resistivity change occurred at a depth around sea level. One of the possible implications of the present finding is that the degassed volatiles migrated not only vertically through the conduit but also laterally through a fracture network, mixing with shallow groundwater beneath sea level and thereby causing the observed resistivity change.     

Large internal waves in Massachusetts Bay transport sediments offshore

A field experiment was carried out in Massachusetts Bay in August 1998 to assess the role of large-amplitude internal waves (LIWs) in resuspending bottom sediments. The field experiment consisted of a four-element moored array extending from just west of Stellwagen Bank (90-m water depth) across Stellwagen Basin (85- and 50-m water depth) to the coast (24-m water depth). The LIWs were observed in packets of 5–10 waves, had periods of 5–10 min and wavelengths of 200–400 m, and caused downward excursions of the thermocline of as much as 30 m. At the 85-m site, the current measured 1 m above bottom (mab) typically increased from near 0 to 0.2 m/s offshore in a few minutes upon arrival of the LIWs. At the 50-m site, the near-bottom offshore flow measured 6 mab increased from about 0.1 to 0.4–0.6 m/s upon arrival of the LIWs and remained offshore in the bottom layer for 1–2 h. The near-bottom currents associated with the LIWs, in concert with the tidal currents, were directed offshore and sufficient to resuspend the bottom sediments at both the 50- and 85-m sites. When LIWs are present, they may resuspend sediments for as long as 5 hours each tidal cycle as they travel westward across Stellwagen Basin. At 85-m water depth, resuspension associated with LIWs is estimated to occur for about 0.4 days each summer, about the same amount of time as caused by surface waves.     

Seismic isolation foundations with effective attenuation zones

In this paper, a new configuration of seismic isolation foundation containing several concrete layers and some rubber blocks is proposed. The concrete layers and the rubber blocks are placed periodically to form a periodic foundation. To study the isolation ability of this new configuration of periodic foundation, an equivalent analytical model is established. For practical applications, two very useful formulas are obtained. Using these formulas, the low bound frequency and the width of the first attenuation zone can be directly approximated without the calculation of dispersion structure. This new configuration of seismic isolation foundation enjoys the first attenuation zone between 2.15 Hz and 15.01 Hz, which means that the components of seismic waves with frequencies from 2.15 Hz to 15.01 Hz cannot propagate upward in the foundation. To illustrate the efficiency of this seismic isolation foundation, the seismic responses of a 6-story frame with three different foundations are simulated. Numerical simulations show that the seismic responses of the structure with the periodic foundation are greatly attenuated as compared with those of the structure with no isolation base or with traditional rubber bearings.     

Monofrequency in situ damping measurements in Ottawa area soft soils

In Ottawa, Canada, unusually high amplification ratios have recently been measured in clayey silts (called ‘Leda Clays’) at low levels of earthquake-induced ground shaking. However, the contribution of seismic Q, or material damping (ξ=1/2Q), to the overall ground motion at soft soil sites across the city is not well understood. This research investigates attenuation measurements in soft soils (V_s<250 m/s) for ongoing seismic hazard evaluation in the Ottawa area. The work focuses on in situ measurements of damping in two deep boreholes drilled into Leda Clay. To investigate the possibility of frequency-dependent dynamic properties of these materials at low strains, a new approach to the spectral ratio technique has been developed for the measurement of Q_s in the field using a mono-frequency vibratory source (generating signals between 10 and 100 Hz), and two identical downhole 3-component geophones. Monofrequency signals also allowed for the measurement of dispersion (variation of velocity with frequency). Analysis of the data show that dynamic properties are, for the most part, independent of frequency in the homogenous silty soils, yielding negligible variation in shear wave velocity (<2 m/s) across the frequency test band, and small strain Q_s's ranging from 170 to 200 (damping of 0.25–0.30%) over soil thickness intervals ranging from 10 to 60 m. At intervals within 20 m of the ground surface, laminated silt and clay beds of elevated porosity are found to have slight influence on the frequency dependence of damping for frequencies greater than 70 Hz (damping increase to 0.6%).     

Reflection seismic imaging of the end-glacial Pärvie Fault system,northern Sweden

Reflection seismic data were acquired along a c. 23 km long profile over the Pärvie Fault system with a nominal receiver and source spacing of 20 m. An hydraulic breaking hammer was used as a source, generating signals with a penetration depth of about 5–6 km. Steeply dipping reflections from the end-glacial faults are observed, as well as sub-horizontal reflections. The location and orientation of the reflections from the faults agree well with surface geological observations of fault geometries. Reflections from a potential fourth end-glacial fault is observed further to the east along the profile. The more sub-horizontal reflections may originate from gabbroic bodies within the granitic basement or from deeper lying greenstones. Our results indicate that the end-glacial faults dip at moderate to steep dips down to at least 2–3 km depth, and possibly continue at this dip to depths of 6 km. This result has significant implications for determining the state of stress required to activate the faults in the past and in the future.     

Crustal seismic structure and depth distribution of earthquakes in the Archean Kuusamo region,Fennoscandian Shield

Two-dimensional crustal velocity models are derived from passive seismic observations for the Archean Karelian bedrock of north-eastern Finland. In addition, an updated Moho depth map is constructed by integrating the results of this study with previous data sets. The structural models image a typical three-layer Archean crust, with thickness varying between 40 and 52 km. P wave velocities within the 12–20 km thick upper crust range from 6.1 to 6.4 km/s. The relatively high velocities are related to layered mafic intrusive and volcanic rocks. The middle crust is a fairly homogeneous layer associated with velocities of 6.5–6.8 km/s. The boundary between middle and lower crust is located at depths between 28 and 38 km. The thickness of the lower crust increases from 5–15 km in the Archean part to 15–22 km in the Archean–Proterozoic transition zone. In the lower crust and uppermost mantle, P wave velocities vary between 6.9–7.3 km/s and 7.9–8.2 km/s. The average V_p/V_s ratio increases from 1.71 in the upper crust to 1.76 in the lower crust.The crust attains its maximum thickness in the south-east, where the Archean crust is both over- and underthrust by the Proterozoic crust. A crustal depression bulging out from that zone to the N–NE towards Kuusamo is linked to a collision between major Archean blocks. Further north, crustal thickening under the Salla and Kittilä greenstone belts is tentatively associated with a NW–SE-oriented collision zone or major shear zone. Elevated Moho beneath the Pudasjärvi block is primarily explained with rift-related extension and crustal thinning at ∼2.4–2.1 Ga.The new crustal velocity models and synthetic waveform modelling are used to outline the thickness of the seismogenic layer beneath the temporary Kuusamo seismic network. Lack of seismic activity within the mafic high-velocity body in the uppermost 8 km of crust and relative abundance of mid-crustal, i.e., 14–30 km deep earthquakes are characteristic features of the Kuusamo seismicity. The upper limit of seismicity is attributed to the excess of strong mafic material in the uppermost crust. Comparison with the rheological profiles of the lithosphere, calculated at nearby locations, indicates that the base of the seismogenic layer correlates best with the onset of brittle to ductile transition at about 30 km depth.We found no evidence on microearthquake activity in the lower crust beneath the Archean Karelian craton. However, a data set of relatively well-constrained events extracted from the regional earthquake catalogue implies a deeper cut-off depth for earthquakes in the Norrbotten tectonic province of northern Sweden.     

Nonlinear geodynamics of the Baikal rift system: An evolution scenario with triple equilibrium bifurcation

This is an attempt to analyze the current lithospheric stress pattern in the Baikal rift in terms of nonlinear dynamics as an open self-organizing system in order to gain more insights into the general laws of regional seismicity. According to the suggested approach, the stress pattern inferred from seismic moments of 70,000 M_LH ≥ 2.0 events that occurred in the region between 1968 and 1994 is presented as a phase portrait in the phase spaces of the seismic moments. The obtained phase portrait of the system evolution fits well a scenario with triple equilibrium bifurcation where stress bifurcations account for the frequency of M > 5.5 earthquakes. Extrapolation of the results into the nearest future indicates probability of such a bifurcation (a catastrophe of stress), i.e., there is growing risk that M ≈ 7 events may happen in the region within a few years.