Application of a time-magnitude prediction model for earthquakes

In this paper we discuss the physical meaning of the magnitude-time model parameters for earthquake prediction. The gestation process for strong earthquake in all eleven seismic zones in China can be described by the magnitude-time prediction model using the computations of the parameters of the model. The average model parameter values for China are： b = 0.383, c=0.154, d = 0.035, B = 0.844, C = -0.209, and D = 0.188. The robustness of the model parameters is estimated from the variation in the minimum magnitude of the transformed data, the spatial extent, and the temporal period. Analysis of the spatial and temporal suitability of the model indicates that the computation unit size should be at least 4°× 4°for seismic zones in North China, at least 3° × 3° in Southwest and Northwest China, and the time period should be as long as possible.     

Neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for India—a preventive tool for disaster mitigation

Current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic wave generation and propagation processes allow for reliable numerical and analytical models of waveform generation and propagation. From the simulation of ground motion, it is easy to extract the desired earthquake hazard parameters. Accordingly, a scenario-based approach to seismic hazard assessment has been developed, namely the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA), which allows for a wide range of possible seismic sources to be used in the definition of reliable scenarios by means of realistic waveforms modelling. Such reliable and comprehensive characterization of expected earthquake ground motion is essential to improve building codes, particularly for the protection of critical infrastructures and for land use planning. Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489–508, 2003) published the first ever neo-deterministic seismic hazard map of India by computing synthetic seismograms with input data set consisting of structural models, seismogenic zones, focal mechanisms and earthquake catalogues. As described in Panza et al. (Adv Geophys 53:93–165, 2012), the NDSHA methodology evolved with respect to the original formulation used by Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489–508, 2003): the computer codes were improved to better fit the need of producing realistic ground shaking maps and ground shaking scenarios, at different scale levels, exploiting the most significant pertinent progresses in data acquisition and modelling. Accordingly, the present study supplies a revised NDSHA map for India. The seismic hazard, expressed in terms of maximum displacement (Dmax), maximum velocity (Vmax) and design ground acceleration (DGA), has been extracted from the synthetic signals and mapped on a regular grid over the studied territory.     

Networks: a generic theory for hydrology?

Connections are ubiquitous. The hydrologic cycle is perhaps the best example: every component of this cycle is connected to every other component, but some connections are stronger than the others. Unraveling the nature and extent of connections in hydrologic systems, as well as their interactions with others, has always been a fundamental challenge in hydrology. Despite the progress in this direction, a strong scientific theory that is suitable for studying all types of connections in hydrology continues to be elusive. In this article, I argue that the theory of networks provides a generic theory for studying all types of connections in hydrology. After presenting a general discussion of complex systems as networks, I offer a brief account of the history of development of network theory and some basic concepts and measures of complex networks, and explain the relevance of complex network theory for hydrologic systems, with three specific examples.     

Solution of a Green’s function for a saturated porous medium in a half-space subjected to a torsional force

Based on the solutions of the Green’s function for a saturated porous medium obtained by the authors,and using transformation of axisymmetric coordinates,Sommerfeld integrals and superposition of the influence field on a free surface,the authors have obtained displacement solutions of a saturated porous medium subjected to a torsional force in a half-space.The relationship curves of the displacement solutions and various parameters(permeability,frequency,etc.)under action of a unit of torque are also given in this paper.The results are consistent with previous Reissner’s solutions,where a two-phase medium decays to a single-phase medium.The solution is useful in solving relevant dynamic problems of a twophase saturated medium in engineering.     

The research of a solution on locating optimally a station for seismic disasters rescue in a city

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Conditions for a steady ice sheet–ice shelf junction

This paper investigates the conditions under which a marine ice sheet may adopt a steady profile. The ice is treated as a linear viscous fluid caused to flow from a rigid base to and over water, treated as a denser but inviscid fluid. The solutions in the region around the point of flotation, or ‘transition’ zone, are calculated numerically. In-flow and out-flow conditions appropriate to ice sheet and ice shelf flow are applied at the ends of the transition zone and the rigid base is specified; the flow and steady free surfaces are determined as part of the solutions. The basal stress upstream, and the basal deflection downstream, of the flotation point are examined to determine which of these steady solutions satisfy ‘contact’ conditions that would prevent (i) the steady downstream basal deflection contacting the downstream base, and (ii) the upstream ice commencing to float in the event it was melted at the base. In the case that the upstream bed is allowed to slide, we find only one mass flux that satisfies the contact conditions. When no sliding is allowed at the bed, however, we find a range of mass fluxes satisfy the contact conditions. The effect of ‘backpressure’ on the solutions is investigated, and is found to have no affect on the qualitative behaviour of the junctions. To the extent that the numerical, linearly viscous treatment may be applied to the case of ice flowing out over the ocean, we conclude that when sliding is present, Weertman's ‘instability’ hypothesis holds.     

δ-Form approximating problem for a conjunctive water resource management model

A nonlinear coupled simulation and optimization model is formulated to find the optimal operating policies with a minimal cost for the conjunctive management of hydraulically interacting surface and ground water supplies. The term representing the pumpage cost in the objective function of the management model causes nonlinearity that cannot be put in a quadratic form as in the traditional approach, since drawdown in that term is a function of well pumpage and other parameters. To eliminate the nonlinearity, δ-form approximating model is formulated with a particular emphasis on the concave function of the transformed objective function. The original problem in a nonlinear form is solved by coupling the solver with a random number generator to provide the model with a different initial guess each time. However, the δ-form approximating problem is formulated as a linear mixed integer programming model. Optimal operating policies and the operation costs obtained from both models are found to be in good agreement.     

Nonlinear extensions of a fractal–multifractal approach for environmental modeling

We present the extension of a deterministic fractal geometric procedure aimed at representing the complexity of patterns encountered in environmental applications. The procedure, which is based on transformations of multifractal distributions via fractal functions, is extended through the introduction of nonlinear perturbations in the generating iterated linear maps. We demonstrate, by means of various simulations based on changes in parameters, that the nonlinear perturbations generate yet a richer collection of interesting patterns, as reflected by their overall shapes and their statistical and multifractal properties. It is shown that the nonlinear extensions yield structures that closely resemble complex hydrologic spatio-temporal datasets, such as rainfall and runoff time series, and width-functions of river networks. The implications of this nonlinear approach for environmental modeling and prediction are discussed.     

Monitoring Systems for Local Historical Natural–Technical Systems (HNTS) as a Basis for Measures for Long-Term Preservation of Cultural Objects

Examples of the development of monitoring systems are considered for the case of local historical natural–technical systems of various classification levels. The authors’ scheme of classification of local HNTSs is given. The classification is aimed to systematize the diverse data on various HNTSs to form a single interrelated system basing on common principal features. Monitoring systems of local HNTSs of the Borodino Battlefield, Old Ryazan City, and Rostov Kremlin are used as examples to demonstrate their relevancy for solving problems of the complex of protection measures.     

Störmer method for a problem of point injection of charged particles into a magnetic dipole field

The problem of point injection of charged particles into a magnetic dipole field was considered. Analytical expressions were obtained by the Störmer method for regions of allowed pulses of charged particles at random points of a dipole field at a set position of the point source of particles. It was found that, for a fixed location of the studied point, there was a specific structure of the coordinate space in the form of a set of seven regions, where the injector location in each region corresponded to a definite form of an allowed pulse region at the studied point. It was shown that the allowed region boundaries in four of the mentioned regions were surfaces of conic section revolution.     

Multiplication factor for open ground storey buildings–a reliability based evaluation

Open Ground Storey(OGS) framed buildings where the ground storey is kept open without infill walls, mainly to facilitate parking, is increasing commonly in urban areas. However, vulnerability of this type of buildings has been exposed in past earthquakes. OGS buildings are conventionally designed by a bare frame analysis that ignores the stiffness of the infill walls present in the upper storeys, but doing so underestimates the inter-storey drift(ISD) and thereby the force demand in the ground storey columns. Therefore, a multiplication factor(MF) is introduced in various international codes to estimate the design forces(bending moments and shear forces) in the ground storey columns. This study focuses on the seismic performance of typical OGS buildings designed by means of MFs. The probabilistic seismic demand models, fragility curves, reliability and cost indices for various frame models including bare frames and fully infilled frames are developed. It is found that the MF scheme suggested by the Israel code is better than other international codes in terms of reliability and cost.     

Electric Potential and Fréchet Derivatives for a Uniform Anisotropic Medium with a Tilted Axis of Symmetry

In this paper we develop analytic solutions for the electric potential, current density and Fréchet derivatives at any interior point within a 3-D transversely isotropic medium having a tilted axis of symmetry. The current electrode is assumed to be on the surface of the Earth and the plane of stratification given arbitrary strike and dip. Profiles can be computed for any azimuth. The equipotentials exhibit an elliptical pattern and are not orthogonal to the current density vectors, which are strongly angle dependent. Current density reaches its maximum value in a direction parallel to the longitudinal conductivity direction. Illustrative examples of the Fréchet derivatives are given for the 2.5-D problem, in which the profile is taken perpendicular to strike. All three derivatives of the Green’s function with respect to longitudinal conductivity, transverse resistivity and dip angle of the symmetry axis (dG/dσ_l, dG/dσ_t, dG/dθ₀) show a strongly asymmetric pattern compared to the isotropic case. The patterns are aligned in the direction of the tilt angle. Such sensitivity patterns are useful in real-time experimental design as well as in the fast inversion of resistivity data collected over an anisotropic earth.     

Education: Can a bottom-up strategy help for earthquake disaster prevention?

To comply with the need to spread the culture of earthquake disaster reduction, we rely on strategies that involve education. Risk education is a long-term process that passes from knowledge, through understanding, to choices and actions thrusting preparedness and prevention, over recovery. We set up strategies for prevention that encompass child and adult education, as a bottom-up approach, from raising awareness to reducing potential effects of disruption of society. Analysis of compulsory school education in three European countries at high seismic risk, namely Portugal, Iceland and Italy, reveals that generally there are a few State-backed plans. The crucial aspects of risk education concerning natural hazards are starting age, incompleteness of textbooks, and lack of in-depth studies of the pupils upon completion of their compulsory education cycle. Hands-on tools, immersive environments, and learn-by-playing approaches are the most effective ways to raise interest in children, to provide memory imprint as a message towards a culture of safety. A video game, Treme–treme, was prepared to motivate, educate, train and communicate earthquake risk to players/pupils. The game focuses on do’s and don’ts for earthquake shaking, and allows children to think about what might be useful in the case of evacuation. Education of the general public was addressed using audio-visual products strongly linked to the social, historical and cultural background of each country. Five videos tackled rising of awareness of seismic hazards in Lisbon, the area surrounding Reykjavik, Naples, and Catania, four urban areas prone to earthquake disasters.     

Land–Water Boundary Treatment for a Tsunami Model With Dimensional Splitting

The Method of Splitting Tsunamis (MOST) model adapted by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for tsunami forecasting operations is praised for its computational efficiency, associated with the use of splitting technique. It will be shown, however, that splitting the computations between \(x\) and \(y\) directions results in specific sensitivity to the treatment of land–water boundary. Slight modification to the reflective boundary condition in MOST caused an appreciable difference in the results. This is demonstrated with simulations of the Tohoku-2011 tsunami from the source earthquake to Monterey Bay, California, and in southeast Alaska, followed by comparison with tide gage records. In the first case, the better representation of later waves (reflected from the coasts) by the modified model in a Pacific-wide simulation resulted in twice as long match between simulated and observed tsunami time histories at Monterey gage. In the second case, the modified model was able to propagate the tsunami wave and approach gage records at locations within narrow channels (Juneau, Ketchikan), to where MOST had difficulty propagating the wave. The modification was extended to include inundation computation. The resulting inundation algorithm (Cliffs) has been tested with the complete set of NOAA-recommended benchmark problems focused on inundation. The solutions are compared to the MOST solutions obtained with the version of the MOST model benchmarked for the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program in 2011. In two tests, Cliffs and MOST results are very close, and in another two tests, the results are somewhat different. Very different regimes of generation/disposal of water by Cliffs and MOST inundation algorithms, which supposedly affected the benchmarking results, have been discussed.