超强台风“桑美”及“韦帕”风暴潮预报分析

基干河口海岸水动力模型MIKE2l,以及全球潮汐预报模型,建立浙江省沿海天文潮与风暴潮耦合预报模式.针对登陆浙江省的两次超强台风"桑美"和"韦帕",以预报的天文潮潮波和台风参数为依据,进行浙江沿海风暴潮位预报,在路径基本准确的情况下,风暴高潮位预报值与实测值相差17cm,后报精度为12cm,为沿海防汛提供了可靠的依据.     

洋山深水港风暴增、减水特征

依据小洋山1997年8月至2002年12月的实测潮位,采用王骥、方国洪的分潮模式,进行潮汐调和分析,给出天文潮预报,对期间的实测潮位进行增、减水分离,获取洋山深水港区风暴增、减水特征,以及典型的风暴的增减水过程,经对1998-2002年实测资料分离,≥30cm的增水年均17.2场,≥30 cm的减水年均9场,引发严重增水的主要是台风.同时检索、比对大量的台风资料,分析引发洋山港海域严重和特大风暴潮的台风路径主要是在浙江北部到长江口沿海登陆的台风和在浙江北部、上海市近海北上或转向的台风.     

一个高分辨率的长江口台风风暴潮数值预报模式及其应用

利用河口海岸海洋模式(ECOM-Si)建立了一个适用于长江口区风暴潮的数值预报模式.该模式采用对岸线有较好拟合能力的自然正交水平坐标系统和能分辨较复杂海底地形的垂直σ坐标系统.模式考虑了长江口径流量对风暴潮的影响,部分地考虑了天文潮和风暴潮非线性相互作用对风暴增水的影响.风暴潮预报的大气强迫场用模型气压场和模型风场.利用所建立的模式对长江口区台风风暴潮进行了8个个例模拟,模拟增水与实测增水的峰值相比较,平均绝对误差不足10cm.利用本研究建立的模式,就气象因子对风暴潮位的敏感性进行了数值试验.试验结果表明,台风中心气压降低(升高)20hPa可导致约100cm的风暴潮位升高(或降低).台风最大风速半径误差对台风增水的变化影响也较显著.试验还表明,长江径流量增加1倍(减半),可以造成风暴潮的平均增加25cm(减小13cm).天文潮位相变化对风暴增水的影响数值试验表明,当台风暴潮与天文潮在不同位相相互作用,可使风暴潮位最大增加达70cm或减小90cm.     

基于有限元法的福建沿岸天文潮风暴潮耦合预报模式研究

采用有限元法建立了一个适用于福建沿岸的天文潮-风暴潮耦合预报模式(FETSCM),模式采用三角网格,在福建沿岸平均网格分辨率为1 km,最高500 m.利用福建沿岸6个潮位站的实测资料对模型进行了验证,天文潮模拟结果与实测吻合良好,5个站位平均绝对误差为22 cm;31场历史台风期间6个站位风暴潮后报模拟误差为24 cm;天文潮-风暴潮耦合总水位的平均极值误差为20 cm,表明该耦合预报模式对福建沿岸的台风灾害预警有较好实用价值.     

天津沿海风暴潮灾害近20年统计及其成因分析

根据塘沽海洋环境监测站从1991—2010年,20a的潮汐资料进行统计分析,分析得到天津平均每年发生近10d的100cm以上的增水过程,天津沿海夏秋两季的最高潮位和平均潮位最高,且最大增水值多出现在夏秋两季,超过100cm的增水天数多集中在春季和秋冬季,并从天文潮因素、气象因素、海平面上升、地面沉降,以及地理因素等,总结了天津沿海风暴潮灾害的成因,最后提出了相应的风暴潮灾害防范措施。     

南海区高分辨率非线性耦合作用台风风暴潮数值预报试验与研究

本文对适用于南海区多因素影响的二级粗细嵌套网格风暴潮模型进行开发研究,考虑目前计算条件限制和预报实际时效的需要,采用天文潮与风暴潮的非线性相互作用二级模型进行风暴潮潮位实验研究.本文的研究改进现有风暴潮模式中仅考虑风与气压影响增减水的缺陷,考虑了天文潮的非线性影响风暴潮潮位等因素,预报出实时风暴潮潮位,与目前多因素海洋动力耦合模型有相似之处.更好地提高了风暴潮增减水及实时潮位的预报精度,给出直观的近岸海域风暴潮潮位时空分布.     

1003号台风“灿都”风暴潮特征分析与模拟

根据粤西沿海4个海洋站潮位资料分析、讨论了“灿都”台风风暴潮特征:利用改进的Jelesnianski风场,并采用耦合天文潮模拟与非耦合天文潮两种方案,对1003号台风“灿都”进行模拟、分析,模拟结果显示:在改进的杰氏风场驱动下,两种预报结果误差都比较小,但耦合天文潮预报结果优于非耦合天文潮预报结果.     

舟山海域风暴潮特征及数值模拟研究

选择20个对舟山海域有较大影响的历史台风案例,开展定海站实测潮位数据的分析与归纳,总结得出20个台风中风暴潮过程增水最大值为5612号台风的207.1 cm,风暴潮高潮位最大值为9711号台风的283.7 cm。同时,在三维斜压水动力模型SELFE的基础上加入台风气压场和风场模块,建立了一个采用非结构三角形网格的天文潮-风暴潮耦合模型,模拟表明定海站的斜压效应较为明显,非线性耦合作用相对较弱,但两潮耦合风暴潮增水结果仍优于风暴潮单因子增水结果,与实际增水更为接近。在此基础上,以一定间隔在5612号台风原路径南北两侧各设计了2条平行路径,分别模拟两潮耦合风暴潮增水,结果表明5612号台风参数沿其原路径偏南1个最大风速半径距离的S1路径运动时可模拟得到定海站可能最大风暴潮增水为243.9 cm。最后,在S1路径下模拟可能最大风暴潮增水分别遭遇天文高、中、低潮位时的风暴潮高潮位,结果表明天文潮高潮时可得到可能最大风暴潮高潮位约为400 cm,天文中潮时次之,而天文低潮时风暴潮高潮位最低。     

浪潮耦合的舟山渔港台风暴潮数值模拟

建立能精确模拟舟山渔港台风暴潮过程的浪潮耦合模型,对渔港防灾减灾具有重要意义。基于Delft3D中的FLOW和WAVE模块,在二重嵌套网格下建立风暴潮和波浪的耦合模型。以9711号台风Winnie为背景,验证耦合模型的可靠性,结果显示,风速、天文潮潮位、风暴潮潮位和有效波高的计算值与实测值吻合良好。利用风暴潮模型与耦合模型分别计算了舟山海域的风暴潮,分析了波浪对风暴潮潮位的抬升影响,定海和镇海站最大波浪增水分别为23 cm和34 cm,耦合模型的模拟精度要高于风暴潮模型。通过模拟9711号台风期间舟山渔港的风暴潮过程,分析了风暴潮的时空分布特征,并给出了浪潮耦合作用对于风暴潮时空分布的影响。     

Delft3D在天文潮与风暴潮耦合数值模拟中的应用

本文应用Delft-3D水动力学计算软件,以长江口地区为例建立的台风风暴潮、天文潮耦合数值预报模型,对台风风暴潮、天文潮两潮耦合预报模式进行探研和分析。该模式不同于以往的单纯台风增水模型与天文潮叠加的风暴潮模式,而是在计算中直接对天文潮和台风风暴潮进行两潮耦合,有效地消除了近岸地区潮波与增水之间叠加的非线性影响。通过模拟台风8114和7708过境对长江口的影响,并与实测数据比较,预报结果和实测水位过程的对比说明,台风风暴潮耦合数值预报模式对增水和高潮的过程预报是准确的,两者在高水位时同步且相差甚微。     

一次典型寒潮风暴潮过程的数值模拟研究

建立了渤海及邻近海域天文潮与风暴潮的耦合模型。在验证的基础上,以2003年10月寒潮为例,分析了寒潮作用下渤海沿岸的增、减水及潮流场的时空分布变化特征。结果表明,寒潮作用下渤海湾沿岸增水幅度较大,水位振荡明显;潮流运动发生较大改变,局部海域的往复流转化为单向流,可能会影响渤海湾沿岸泥沙的运动。     

基于海气耦合模型的渤海两种类型风暴潮数值模拟与对比分析

渤海一年四季都易受到由温带风暴和热带气旋所致风暴潮的影响。为了缓解风暴潮灾害对海岸地区人员生命财产的影响,十分有必要了解大型风暴潮的发生过程和机制。目前大部分研究主要局限于单一的温带风暴潮或台风风暴潮。本文利用所构建的海气耦合数值模型研究了发生于渤海的两种类型的风暴潮,对发生在渤海的2次典型强风暴潮过程进行了模拟。由WRF模型模拟得到的风场强度和最低海平面气压与实测数据吻合较好,由ROMS模型模拟得到的风暴潮期间水位变化过程与潮位站观测结果也吻合较好。对两种类型风暴潮期间的风场结钩、海面风应力、海洋表面平均流场以及水位分布进行了分析对比,并将耦合模型结果与非耦合模型结果进行了对比。研究表明,渤海两种类型风暴潮期间的风场结钩、海面风应力、海洋表面平均流场以及水位分布等均存在巨大差异。渤海风暴潮的强度主要由海洋表面的驱动力所决定,但同时也受海岸地形地貌的影响。     

A Preliminary Investigation into the Nonlinear Interaction Between Storm Surge and Astronomical Tide During the No.8114 Typhoon in the Huanghai Sea

It is known from data analysis that periodic fluctuations are obviously present in theprocess curve representing a storm surge in either the Huanghai Sea or the East China Sea,which has been obtained on the basis of the difference-estimating method. Apart from long-wave effects by storm disturbance, there is a nonlinear interaction between storm surge and     

Long-term variation of storm surge-associated waves in the Bohai Sea

When investigating the long-term variation of wave characteristics as associated with storm surges in the Bohai Sea,the Simulating Waves Nearshore(SWAN)model and Advanced CIRCulation(ADCIRC)model were coupled to simulate 32 storm surges between 1985 and 2014.This simulation was validated by reproducing three actual wave processes,showing that the simulated significant wave height(SWH)and mean wave period agreed well with the actual measurements.In addition,the long-term variations in SWH,pattems in SWH extremes along the Bohai Sea coast,the 100-year retum period SWH extreme distribution,and waves conditional probability distribution were calculated and analyzed.We find that the trend of SWH extremes in most of the coastal stations was negative,among which the largest trend was-0.03 m/a in the western part of Liaodong Bay.From the 100-year return period of the SWH distribution calculated in the Gumbel method,we find that the SWH extremes associated with storm surges decreased gradually from the center of the Bohai Sea to the coast.In addition,the joint probability of wave and surge for the entire Bohai Sea in 100-year return period was determined by the Gumbel logistic method.We therefore,assuming a minimum surge of one meter across the entire Bohai Sea,obtained the spatial SWH distribution.The conclusions of this study are significant for offshore and coastal engineering design.     

渤、黄海天文潮—风暴潮相互作用及其对极值水位的贡献

基于Delft3D模型建立了中国渤、黄海风暴潮数值模型,选取1979—2020年影响该海域的93场风暴过程（包括台风、寒潮和温带气旋）,模拟了所产生的风暴增水和风暴潮总水位。采用泊松—皮尔逊复合极值分布理论,推算了渤、黄海对应不同重现期的极值水位;通过数值试验,对天文潮—风暴潮非线性相互作用对极值水位的贡献进行了量化分析。研究结果表明,渤海的莱州湾、渤海湾,以及黄海的江华湾、西朝鲜湾风暴增水最大,其中江华湾北侧和渤海湾西南侧的百年一遇风暴增水可达4 m;天文潮—风暴潮非线性相互作用在潮差较大、水深较浅的河口、湾顶区域更为显著,与耦合模型结果相比,非线性作用使极值水位值偏小,天文潮、风暴潮增水的线性叠加可显著高估极值水位,高估的幅值可达0.5~0.8 m。考虑重现期极值水位是海岸灾害防护工程的关键设计参数之一,对海岸构筑物的安全和建造成本影响极大,应重视天文潮—风暴潮非线性相互作用对重现期水位的影响。     

渤海风暴潮概况及温带风暴潮数值模拟

分析研究表明,天津沿海是世界上风暴潮最频发区和最严重的区域之一,风暴潮灾一年四季均有发生,除夏季有台风风暴潮灾害发生外,春、秋、冬季均有灾害性温带风暴潮发生.采用球坐标系下的二维风暴潮模式,对1969年4月23日引起渤海最大温带风暴增水过程进行了数值模拟.对风场和增水过程的计算结果验证表明,该模式可用于温带风暴潮的工程计算,并且只要依据文中方法计算出预报气压场和风场,该模式也具有预报能力.     

Development and application of an operational tide and storm surge prediction model for the seas around Taiwan

Storm surges are abnormal rises in sea level along coastal areas and are mainly formed by strong wind and atmospheric depressions.When storm surges coincide with high tide,coastal flooding can occur.Creating storm surge prediction systems has been an important and operational task worldwide.This study developed a coupled tide and storm surge numerical model of the seas around Taiwan for operational purposes at the Central Weather Bureau.The model was calibrated and verified by using tidal records from seas around Taiwan.Model skill was assessed based on measured records,and the results are presented in details.At 3-minute resolution,tides were generally well predicted,with the root mean-square errors of less than 0.11 m and an overall correlation of more than 0.9.Storms(winds and depressions) were introduced into the model forcing by using the parameter typhoon model.Five typical typhoons that threatened Taiwan were simulated for assessment.The surges were well predicted compared with the records.     

A numerical study on the impact of tidal waves on the storm surge in the north of Liaodong Bay

A storm surge is an abnormal sharp rise or fall in the seawater level produced by the strong wind and low pressure field of an approaching storm system.A storm tide is a water level rise or fall caused by the combined effect of the storm surge and an astronomical tide.The storm surge depends on many factors,such as the tracks of typhoon movement,the intensity of typhoon,the topography of sea area,the amplitude of tidal wave,the period during which the storm surge couples with the tidal wave.When coupling with different parts of a tidal wave,the storm surges caused by a typhoon vary widely.The variation of the storm surges is studied.An once-in-a-century storm surge was caused by Typhoon 7203 at Huludao Port in the north of the Liaodong Bay from July 26th to 27th,1972.The maximum storm surge is about 1.90 m.The wind field and pressure field used in numerical simulations in the research were derived from the historical data of the Typhoon 7203 from July 23rd to 28th,1972.DHI Mike21 is used as the software tools.The whole Bohai Sea is defined as the computational domain.The numerical simulation models are forced with sea levels at water boundaries,that is the tide along the Bohai Straits from July 18th to 29th（2012）.The tide wave and the storm tides caused by the wind field and pressure field mentioned above are calculated in the numerical simulations.The coupling processes of storm surges and tidal waves are simulated in the following way.The first simulation start date and time are 00：00 July 18th,2012; the second simulation start date and time are 03：00 July 18th,2012.There is a three-hour lag between the start date and time of the simulation and that of the former one,the last simulation start date and time are 00：00 July 25th,2012.All the simulations have a same duration of 5 days,which is same as the time length of typhoon data.With the first day and the second day simulation output,which is affected by the initial field,being ignored,only the 3rd to 5th day simulation results are used to study the rules of the storm surges in the north of the Liaodong Bay.In total,57 cases are calculated and analyzed,including the coupling effects between the storm surge and a tidal wave during different tidal durations and on different tidal levels.Based on the results of the 57 numerical examples,the following conclusions are obtained：For the same location,the maximum storm surges are determined by the primary vibration（the storm tide keeps rising quickly） duration and tidal duration.If the primary vibration duration is a part of the flood tidal duration,the maximum storm surge is lower（1.01,1.05 and 1.37 m at the Huludao Port,the Daling Estuary and the Liaohe Estuary respectively）.If the primary vibration duration is a part of the ebb tidal duration,the maximum storm surge is higher（1.92,2.05 and 2.80 m at the Huludao Port,the Daling Estuary and the Liaohe Estuary respectively）.In the mean time,the sea level restrains the growth of storm surges.The hour of the highest storm tide has a margin of error of plus or minus 80 min,comparing the high water hour of the astronomical tide,in the north of the Liaodong Bay.     

Numerical study on effect of tidal phase on storm surge in the South Yellow Sea

Because of the special topography and large tidal range in the South Yellow Sea,the dynamic process of tide and storm surge is very complicated.The shallow water circulation model Advanced Circulation(ADCIRC)was used to simulate the storm surge process during typhoon Winnie,Prapiroon,and Damrey,which represents three types of tracks attacking the South Yellow Sea,which are,moving northward after landing,no landing but active in offshore areas,and landing straightly to the coastline.Numerical experiments were carried out to investigate the effects of tidal phase on the tide-surge interaction as well as storm surge.The results show that the peak surge caused by Winnie and Prapiroon occurs 2-5 h before the high tide and its occurring time relative to high tide has little change with tidal phase variations.On the contrary,under the action of Damrey,the occurring time of the peak surge relative to high tide varies with tidal phase.The variation of tide-surge interaction is about 0.06-0.37 m,and the amplitude variations of interaction are smooth when tidal phase changes for Typhoon Winnie and Prapiroon.While the interaction is about 0.07-0.69 m,and great differences exists among the stations for Typhoon Damrey.It can be concluded that the tide-surge interaction of the former is dominated by the tidal phase modulation,and the time of surge peak is insensitive to the tidal phase variation.While the interaction of the latter is dominated by storm surge modulation due to the water depth varying with tide,the time of surge peak is significantly affected by tidal phase.Therefore,influence of tidal phase on storm surge is related to typhoon tracks which may provide very useful information at the design stage of coastal protection systems.     

渤海典型温带风暴潮数值模拟及改进实验

分析了2010年渤海两次典型温带风暴潮过程及规律,发现沿岸的最大增水基本由北沿渤海西岸向南传播且各站出现最大增水时间有较稳定的滞后,利用一套基于非结构网格的高分辨率风暴潮模式(ADCirc)和NMEFC温带风暴潮模式(CES)分别对“20101212”强温带风暴潮过程进行数值模拟,对比分析其结果的优劣后提出基于测站风场...