Fault movements and stress accumulation before the 1976 Tangshan earthquake in North China

This paper analyses geodetic data including the results of short baseline and short levelling surveys across active faults, and of relevellings over a wide area collected at Tangshan and in its vicinity during the several years before the 1976 Tangshan earthquake of magnitude 7.8. Using a theoretical model for slip on a fault plane with an arbitrary dip in a viscoelastic half-space, the parameters of the aseismic fault slip prior to the shock are obtained, and the stress changes caused in the area of Tangshan by such slip are estimated. The results are comparable with the seismic activity and the changes in time and space of the b-value in the relation N = exp(a - bM) observed in the same period. It is demonstrated that during 1968–1975 the Cangdong fault, the main NNE-trending active fault in the southwest of the seismic region, had gradually started aseismic right-lateral strike-slip and that the occurrence of the Tangshan earthquake was related to the stress field produced by the slip. Finally, two sequences of periodic earthquake migration that took place in North China during 1966–1976 are discussed in connection with the Tangshan earthquake.     

喜马拉雅东构造结北缘通麦—波密段现今地应力场特征研究

喜马拉雅东构造结是青藏高原构造演化研究的关键地区,规划有川藏铁路和雅鲁藏布江下游水电开发等重大工程,受限于地质地理条件,其现今地应力场尚不完全清楚。本文利用水压致裂法地应力数据,研究了东构造结北缘通麦—波密段现今地应力场,探讨了其构造应力环境。结果表明,通麦—波密段实测主应力随深度增加而增大,1100 m深度内SH和Sh分别为4. 87~32. 47 MPa和3. 05~20. 07 MPa,随深度增加梯度分别为2. 49 MPa/100 m和1. 61 MPa/100 m,略低于青藏地块和东构造结西缘梯度水平,但地应力状态特征参数表明其水平应力作用强度总体上高于青藏地块;SH优势方向为NEE向（N69. 2°±11. 5°E）,相比NNE—NE向区域主压应力方向表现出明显的顺时针偏转特征;现今地应力场由水平向应力作用主导,400 m以浅应力类型为逆冲型,以深转换为走滑型;水平向差应力和构造差应力在600 m深度以下显著增加,构造差应力最大为12. 42 MPa,表明通麦—波密段深部存在相对较强的构造应力作用;库伦摩擦失稳准则分析表明,受地形影响较小的200 m以深实测地应力值总体低于摩擦系数取0. 6时理论地应力水平,并且430 m深度以下地应力值总体在摩擦系数取0. 2~0. 4的理论地应力取值范围内,揭示通麦—波密段现今地壳应力强度尚未达到极限水平,目前处于相对稳定的构造应力环境。最后,讨论了现今地应力场对东构造结北缘重大铁路隧道工程的潜在影响,并提出了应对建议。     

Analysis of Izmit aftershocks 25 days before the November 12th 1999 Düzce earthquake, Turkey

We investigate spatial clustering of 2414 aftershocks along the Izmit M_w = 7.4 August 17, 1999 earthquake rupture zone. 25 days prior to the Düzce earthquake M_w = 7.2 (November 12, 1999), we analyze two spatial clusters, namely Sakarya (SC) and Karadere–Düzce (KDC). We determine the earthquake frequency–magnitude distribution (b-value) for both clusters. We find two high b-value zones in SC and one high b-value zone in KDC which are in agreement with large coseismic surface displacements along the Izmit rupture. The b-values are significantly lower at the eastern end of the Izmit rupture where the Düzce mainshock occurred. These low b-values at depth are correlated with low postseismic slip rate and positive Coloumb stress change along KDC. Since low b-values are hypothesized with high stress levels, we propose that at the depth of the Düzce hypocenter (12.5 km), earthquakes are triggered at higher stresses compared to shallower crustal earthquake. The decrease in b-value from the Karadere segment towards the Düzce Basin supports this low b-value high stress hypothesis at the eastern end of the Izmit rupture. Consequently, we detect three asperity regions which are correlated with high b-value zones along the Izmit rupture. According to aftershock distribution the half of the Düzce fault segment was active before the 12 November 1999 Düzce mainshock. This part is correlated with low b-values which mean high stress concentration in the Düzce Basin. This high density aftershock activity presumably helped to trigger the Düzce event (M_w = 7.2) after the Izmit M_w 7.4 mainshock.     

Four loss estimates for the Gorkha M7.8 earthquake,April 25, 2015, before and after it occurred

The number of fatalities in the Gorkha M7.8 earthquake of April 25, 2015, has been estimated at four different times as follows. In March 2005, the fatality estimate in this journal was 21,000–42,000 with an assumed magnitude of 8.1 (Wyss in Nat Hazard 34:305–314, 2005). Within hours after this earthquake, the estimated number of fatalities by QLARM was 2000–10,000 using a point source model and M7.9. Four hours later, the estimate was 20,000–100,000, based on a first approximation line source model and assuming children were in school. Children out of school, as this was a weekend day, reduced the fatalities by approximately a factor of two, but was not taken into account for the calculation. The final line source estimates based on M7.8 and M7.9 calculates 800–9300 and 1100–11,200 fatalities, respectively. The official count is about 10,000 fatalities. These estimates were performed using QLARM, a computer tool and world data set on the distribution of people in settlements and containing a model of the buildings present. It is argued here that the loss estimate 10 years before the event being within a factor of 2.1 of the eventual loss count is useful for mitigation planning. With varying quality of information on the source and the attenuation, the estimates of fatalities shortly after the earthquake are accurate enough to be useful for first responders. With full knowledge of the rupture properties and the regional attenuation of seismic waves, the numbers of human losses are estimated correctly.

     

K0及三轴应力状态下压实膨胀土膨胀模型研究

以不同初始压实状态下的南阳中膨胀土为对象,在常规固结仪上开展侧限膨胀试验及采用GDS三轴仪进行恒定偏差应力的三轴膨胀试验,通过多元非线性拟合分析,分别获得考虑初始压实度、含水率、上覆压力耦合关联影响的K0膨胀模型以及体积膨胀率与球应力（体积应力）关系的三轴膨胀经验模型。基于K0膨胀模型,提出了压实土膨胀潜势能的定量计算公式,并推导出膨胀土边坡处理层厚度的理论计算方法。基于膨胀体积应变只随球应力变化而不受偏差应力影响的假设条件,分析了同一起始条件下,膨胀土K0模型与三轴膨胀模型的内在关联,并建立了通过K0模型推算三轴应力条件下体积膨胀率的理论方法。试验结果表明：采用多因素耦合的K0膨胀模型预测压实土膨胀势具有较好的准确度及合理性;联系K0模型与三轴膨胀模型的纽带在于假设侧限膨胀全程存在一个平均静止侧压力系数,采用反演方法得到平均侧压力系数呈现随上覆压力增大而减小的趋势,这种变化规律的根本原因则在于侧向膨胀力随上覆压力的增大而减小。     

火星资源赋存状况及其原位利用技术研究进展与展望

太空资源的勘探及利用是深空探测的重要目的之一。火星是人类最容易到达和资源利用最为迫切的行星,对火星资源进行勘查和原位利用是未来火星载人探测及基地建设需要解决的重要问题。本文对火星大气资源、水资源、土壤与岩石矿物资源、风能与太阳能资源等可利用资源的类型及赋存状况进行了分析,制作了火星资源的全球分布图,并从资源分布的角度提出了未来火星资源探测及火星基地建设的首选区域。同时,本文也总结了火星原位资源利用技术的研究进展及问题,认为未来需要从以下几个方面开展进一步研究：加强火星资源的针对性勘查与评估;开发新的资源利用模式与技术;建立资源利用成本的综合评估模型;完善资源开发与利用相关的法律法规。     

汶川、芦山地震前龙门山断裂带地壳形变特征对比分析

为研究2008年汶川地震和2013年芦山地震前地壳形变特征,本文利用1999—2015年四期GPS速度场和1990—2017年跨断层短水准资料,对跨断层GPS速度剖面、GPS应变率场、断层闭锁程度和滑动亏损、跨断层年均垂直变化速率等进行了分析讨论,总结了汶川和芦山地震前后龙门山断裂带三维地壳变形演化特征。结果表明,汶川地震前龙门山断裂带中、北段处于强闭锁状态、断层面应力应变积累水平很高,而龙门山断裂带西南段闭锁较弱、变形速率明显高于中北段、依然可以积累应力应变,汶川地震震源位于闭锁相对弱的部位,这可能是导致汶川地震自初始破裂点沿龙门山断裂带向北东方向单侧破裂,而震中西南方向断层并没有发生破裂的原因之一。汶川地震的发生引起龙门山断裂带西南段应力应变积累速率加快、断层闭锁程度增强、闭锁面积增大,这在一定程度上促进了芦山地震的发生,而芦山地震震源位于汶川地震前强闭锁和弱闭锁的高梯度过渡部位。因为芦山地震只释放了龙门山断裂带西南段有限的应变能,并没有显著缓解该段的地震危险性,所以汶川和芦山地震之间的地震空段以及芦山地震西南方向的地震空段,依然需要持续关注。此外,本文还收集和对比分析了多次6～9级地震前地壳变形特征,同样显示地震成核于闭锁高梯度带区域而非完全闭锁区域内部,并且随着震级升高闭锁断层面的长度也在增大,这一现象还需在高分辨率形变数据的帮助下进行深入研究和分析。     

地下岩石构造力复合重力的压力状态分析

针对大别一带超高压变质作用的形成深度存在两种观点:其一是形成深度可用静流体公式h=p/(ρg)算出,并得出变质作用形成于90km或更深处;其二是超高压是重力、构造力和其他力合成的,并不只是重力的作用,从而该变质作用可以在地壳内形成。地下的岩石处于固态,而静止流体公式不适用于固体。事实上,围压不仅来自重力,而且也来自构造力和其他力,所以合理的求深度算法应该是从总压力中减去构造力获得纯重力才可用来计算深度。还简要解释了诸如剪应力、差应力、构造力等概念。     

Critical sensitivity of load/unload response ratio and stress accumulation before large earthquakes: example of the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is often defined as the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to earth tide induced Coulomb Failure Stress change on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, anomalous increase in the time series of LURR usually occurs prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the stress field that existed before a large earthquake has strong influence on the evaluation of LURR. In order to augment the sensitivity of LURR in measuring the criticality of stress accumulation before an earthquake, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. Coulomb stress change before the hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. Retrospective test of this new algorithm on the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake shows remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomaly. To illustrate the variation of LURR time series associated with our choice of identified areas with increased Coulomb stress before the earthquake, we calculate the spatial distributions of LURR within a circular region of 700 km radius centered at epicenter of the event. Comparing the spatial LURR distributions of different periods, the change of LURR within the Coulomb stress increase areas looks more prominent than the others: it remains at a low level for most of the time and markedly increases few years before the quake. This result further shows the validity of the Coulomb stress algorithm. Unlike circular regions, areas of increased Coulomb stress with anomalously increased LURR values before a large earthquake could provide a relatively more precise estimation of the criticality of the ensuing event.