模糊综合评判模型在会泽铅锌矿隐伏矿定位预测中的应用

模糊综合评判(FCA)模型是基于模糊数学理论并结合隐伏矿预测理论而建立的一个找矿模型.在会泽铅锌矿隐伏矿定位预测中,运用FCA模型,进行了成矿因素评价集的确定,评价因素权重的确定,并根据流程作出找矿预测的异常图.预测结果与实际工程施工验证相吻合,证明所构造的模型有效.该模型还可以推广到其他矿山进行隐伏矿定位预测.     

近松散含水层下采煤安全性熵值模糊综合评判

基于模糊数学理论,通过统计经验数据,采用熵值法对影响近松散含水层安全开采的关键因素赋权,利用GIS定量确定各个因素的隶属度,构造了基于熵值的模糊综合评判模型。以山东某矿六采区01工作面开采为例,选择覆岩厚度、断层构造、第四系底部粘土层厚度、底部含水层的单位涌水量、煤层开采厚度、导水裂隙带高度6个影响因素为评判指标,确定了可行性程度的评判集:{较低,低,中等,高,很高},依据水体下开采的有关安全规程,采用GIS方法确定了各个因素的隶属度,并利用历史开采经验数据确定各个影响因素的权重。对该工作面近松散含水层下开采的评判结果表明,该工作面控制采高为2 m时开采是安全可行的,开采过程中针对薄弱环节采取了相应措施,没有发生突水溃砂事件,初步验证了该模糊综合评判模型的实用性。      

某水电站近坝库岸边坡稳定性二次模糊综合评判

本文将大范围边坡稳定性的众多影响因素进行总结分类,并针对评价指标分级的特点,将传统的两级模糊综合评判模型作适当改进,进行二次模糊综合评判。以某水电站近坝库岸边坡为例,在确定各评价指标选择依据和评价标准的基础上,建立了该库岸边坡稳定性的二次模糊综合评判模型。结果表明,基本地质因素在模糊综合评判中起着控制作用,其中岸坡结构类型和岩性对库岸边坡稳定性的影响最为显著。     

城市固体废弃物卫生填埋场选址评价的模糊集方法

针对固体废弃物卫生填埋场地适宜性评价具有多目标性和模糊性的特点,引入改进的层次分析法(AHP)确定评价指标的权重,在此基础上构造多目标模糊模式识别模型,发展了模糊模式识别模型和模糊综合评判模型相结合的多层次多目标复杂系统模糊集评价方法。利用该方法对某地固体废弃物卫生填埋场进行了选址评价,论证了固体废弃物卫生填埋场的场地适宜性。     

地质动力区划中断裂活动性的模糊综合评判

地质构造尤其是活动断裂控制着动力现象的区域性分布,然而活动断裂与矿井动力现象的关系并不是绝对和完全的。对断裂活动性进行评价,确定断裂的动力活动强度,是进行动力现象的预测与预防的重要内容之一。文章通过分析活动断裂的特征及其对矿区原地应力场的影响,提出了既具有代表性又容易获取的适合多尺度断裂活动性评价的5个主要指标,即活动断裂两侧断块的高程差、活动断裂长度、活动断裂走向与最大主应力的夹角、活动断裂走向与最大剪应力的夹角及断裂地震综合指标。利用模糊数学方法,建立了断裂活动性评价的模糊综合评判模型,确定了隶属函数,并通过层次分析法确定了各个指标的权重,最终获得了断裂活动性的模糊综合评判结果。将该方法应用于新汶矿区协庄矿,结果显示冲击地压多发生于具有强活动性的断裂附近。表明文章建立的评判模型能够较好地对断裂活动性进行分级。文章提出的模糊综合评判方法,改进了地质动力区划中断裂活动性评价方法,提高了评价结果的准确性及合理性。     

模糊数学方法在天津市地下水水质评价中的应用

运用模糊数学方法,以TDS、氟离子等9个组分作为评价因子,构造综合评判模糊数学模型,计算各评价因子的权重,建立模糊数学最大隶属度函数。对2001年10月采集天津市的地下水水质样本进行了实例计算和评价,对天津市地下水水质进行评价。针对评价结果进行分析,验证评判模型的可靠性。     

基于模糊神经网络的义县萤石成矿预测

成矿预测的模糊综合评判方法中评价因素权重确定时具有较强的人为因素,模糊神经网络方法可以建立在无模型基础上,自动获取输入与输出的关系,在专家确定权重初始值的情况下,通过网络训练确定出最优权重值,这在一定程度上减少了人为因素的影响.应用该方法对义县萤石成矿远景区进行了评价,其评价结果与实际一致.表明该方法可推广到其他区域、其他矿种的预测,但应根据预测对象的实际情况建立控矿因素集和相应的隶属度函数.     

Bayes方法在矿井突水水源判别中的应用

快速有效地判别突水水源是矿井安全生产的重要保障。选取各含水层多项水质指标,应用Bayes方法建立适用于不同水质类型的矿井突水水源快速判别模型。结合SPSS软件,以淮南顾桥矿为例,并与模糊综合评判模型、神经网络模型进行分析比较。结果表明:贝叶斯多类线性判别模型能够有效地判别突水水源,比模糊综合评判有更高的准确性,与神经网络模型的判别准确率相同。Bayes多类线性判别模型又以其计算过程简单、模型结构稳定而优于神经网络模型。既提高判别准确率又提高判别速度,实现对突水水源快速有效判别。      

浅谈地质科技档案资料的编研与开发利用

县城的快速发展日益受到地质灾害的显著制约,进行地质灾害危险性评价是县城可持续发展的客观需要。以甘肃省榆中县为例,建立了地质灾害危险性评价的3级模糊数学模型和全面详细的评价指标体系,查明了存在的主要地质灾害类型有滑坡、崩塌、泥石流及不稳定斜坡等,进行了地质灾害危险性3级模糊综合评价。结果表明,按照不易发、低易发、中易发和高易发4个级别,榆中县为地质灾害高易发区,该结果与实际情况较为一致。说明多级模糊综合法是实现地质灾害危险性评价由单因子定性评判过渡为多因子定量综合评判的有效途径。     

广西钟山县珊瑚钨锡矿区环境地质评价

以广西钟山县珊瑚钨锡矿为研究对象,简述了金属矿山开采对周围环境造成的影响。分析了矿区环境地质存在的问题及成因。通过建立多层模糊评价模型,在确定评价因素和具体评价因子前提下,采用模糊综合评判的方法对环境地质评价进行量化研究。     

青海柴木铁路多年冻土区片石路基工程措施效果的模糊评价

为综合评价多年冻土区片石路基工程措施效果, 以青海柴木铁路为例, 通过分析筛选多年冻土区片石路基工程措施效果评价因子, 给出各评价指标的层次结构, 建立综合评价模型, 确定工程效果评价分级标准与评价因子权重, 采用模糊数学方法对柴木铁路多年冻土区片石路基工程措施效果进行评价, 评价结果显示: 柴木铁路多年冻土地区片石路基工程效果评价结果为较好状态的占86.1%, 处于一般状态的比例为7.5%, 处于较差状态的为6.4%, 没有处于良好状态的路段. 结合试验断面测温资料, 采用模糊方法的评价结果与野外实际观测结果基本相符, 说明此方法可运用于多年冻土区片石路基工程措施效果评价中.     

Supervised committee fuzzy logic model to assess groundwater intrinsic vulnerability in multiple aquifer systems

Groundwater vulnerability modeling is an alternative approach to evaluate groundwater contamination especially in areas affected by intensive anthropogenic activities. However, the DRASTIC model as a well-known method to assess groundwater vulnerability suffers from the inherent uncertainty associated with its seven essential parameters. In this study, three different fuzzy logic (FL) models (Sugeno fuzzy logic, Mamdani fuzzy logic, and Larsen fuzzy logic) are adopted to improve the DRASTIC system to be more realistic. The vulnerability map of groundwater from multiple aquifer systems (i.e., karstic, alluvium, and complex) in Basara basin, Iraq, was created using the FL models. Validation of the FL models results using NO₃-N concentration obtained from wells and springs of the study area indicating that all of the three FL models are applicable for improving the DRASTIC model. However, each of the FL models has its own advantages for groundwater vulnerability estimation in different types of aquifer systems in the Basara basin. Therefore, this study proposes the supervised committee fuzzy logic (SCFL) as a multimodel method to combine the advantages of individual FL models. The SCFL method confirms that no water well with high NO₃-N levels would be classified as low risk and vice versa. The study suggests that this approach has provided a convenient estimation of pollution risk in the study area and therefore, a more accurate prediction of the intrinsic vulnerability to pollution in the multiple aquifer system can be achieved through SCFL method.     

FRFI model application in groundwater non-point source pollution evaluation: a case study in the Luoyang Basin of North Henan province, China

The traditional non-point source (NPS) pollution models mainly focus on the flow path of NPS pollutants and attenuation during the flow. Extensive data set preparation and complex results analysis for these models are the most common problems encountered by the model user. In this study a new model, fuzzy-rough sets and fuzzy inference (FRFI), was introduced to evaluate groundwater NPS pollution. The proposed model involves two steps: the algorithm of fuzzy-rough sets attribute reduction (FRSAR) was applied to yield minimal decision rules from the fuzzy information system (FIS); the fuzzy inference technique was then used to forecast a groundwater synthesis pollution index based on the minimal decision rules. This model was applied in the Luoyang Basin, examining NPS pollution factors and hydrochemical variables data to validate the effectiveness of this model. The results indicate that it is only required to collect five NPS pollution factors or three hydrochemical variables; the groundwater synthesis pollution index can be predicted using the FRFI model. The prediction error is restricted to 2.9–6.1 % and 0.8–1.6 %, respectively. Therefore, the costs of computation and monitoring can be decreased, and the user is not required to prepare massive model parameters for the FRFI model. According to analyze the correlation between NPS pollution factors and hydrochemical variables, prevention measures are provided for treatment of the endemic disease and eutrophication. The FRFI model can be suitable for groundwater NPS pollution evaluation systems.     

秦巴地区地壳稳定性评价

三峡水库引水工程是南水北调的重要补充工程, 具有重要的战略意义和经济意义。本文在分析现今构造应力场、地壳结构、构造格架、活动断裂、地震活动、工程岩组等影响地壳稳定性主要因素的基础上, 利用模糊数学综合评价模型评价秦巴地区的地壳稳定性。评价结果表明, 秦巴地区地壳稳定性程度较高, 适合兴建大型引水工程。      

路基下岩溶稳定性评价的模糊多层次多属性决策方法研究

影响高速公路路基下岩溶稳定性的因素很多,影响程度各不相同且包含各种模糊信息。基于实际工程资料,综合运用层次分析方法和模糊多属性决策方法,建立路基下岩溶顶板稳定性评价的模糊多层次多属性决策模型;采用Laagoven和Buckley关于层次分析方法中权重比矩阵元素模糊化的建议,推导出权重比矩阵元素为三角模糊数的模糊权值向量计算公式,再按照模糊平均加权方法（F-SAW）得到每个评语的模糊效应值;最后以此结果进行模糊集排序,得到岩溶顶板稳定性的评语。实际工程的应用结果表明了方法的可行性和有效性,为岩溶区路基稳定性评价提供了新的思路和方法。     

模糊数学法在地下水污染评价中的应用

对于由诸多综合因素的决定的,不宜用二值逻辑评价的事物,用模糊数学的进行总体评价是一种创新,这在人类的思维方式上是一大进步,本文就是根据地下水的诸多杂质含量的实测数据,用模糊数学的方法评价地下的污染程度,判定水质等级的一种尝试。     

基于遗传算法和模糊神经网络的边坡稳定性评价

边坡工程是一个动态的、模糊的、开放的复杂非线性系统,传统的分析方法有时难以对复杂边坡的稳定性做出符合实际的评价。影响边坡稳定性的因素复杂且具有随机性和模糊性。由于神经网络方法不仅能考虑定量因素,而且能考虑定性因素的影响,因而神经网络方法适用于解决非确定性的边坡稳定性评价问题。综合考虑影响边坡稳定性的各方面因素,建立了基于遗传算法的模糊神经网络模型,并利用大量工程资料对网络进行训练和测试。预测结果表明,该模型的预测精度明显高于目前同类方法。     

Assessment of arsenic and fluoride pollution in groundwater in Dawukou area,Northwest China,and the associated health risk for inhabitants

Exposure to arsenic and fluoride through contaminated drinking water can cause serious health effects. In this study, the sources and occurrence of arsenic and fluoride contaminants in groundwater are analyzed in Dawukou area, northwest China, where inhabitants rely on groundwater as the source of drinking water. The triangular fuzzy numbers approach is adopted to assess health risk. The fuzzy risk assessment model incorporates the uncertainties that are caused by data gaps and variability in the degree of exposure to contaminants. The results showed that arsenic and fluoride in groundwater were mainly controlled by the dissolution–precipitation of Ca-arsenate and fluorite under weakly alkaline conditions. The arsenic and fluoride concentrations were higher in the shallow groundwater. The most probable risk values for arsenic and fluoride were 4.57 × 10^?4 and 0.4 in the shallow groundwater, and 1.58 × 10^?4 and 0.3 in the deep groundwater. Although the risks of fluoride were almost within the acceptable limit (<1.0), the risk values of arsenic were all beyond the acceptable levels of 10^?6 for drinking water. Further, the local administration should pay more attention to the potential health risk through dietary intake and to the safety of deep water by ensuring it is not contaminated under prolonged pumping conditions. The fuzzy risk model treats the uncertainties associated with a quantitative approach and provides valuable information for decision makers when uncertainties are explicitly acknowledged, particularly for the variability in contaminants. This study can provide a new insight for solving data uncertainties in risk management.     

应用模糊学方法评价达川地区斜坡稳定性

斜坡稳定性，归根结底是斜坡发生变形破坏的可能性程度。而斜坡稳定性受制于众多地质因素的综合作用，因而用经典的数学方法进行多因素且较为切合实际的评价是相当困难的。模糊数学方法能较好地解决上述问题，其显著优点是能处理大量的定性资料及模糊地质信息，因此，我们选择模糊数学方法进行达川地区的斜坡稳定性评价。