A possible mechanism of stimulation of seismic activity by ionizing radiation of solar flares

A possible mechanism of earthquake triggering by ionizing radiation of solar flares is considered. A theoretical model and results of numerical calculations of disturbance of electric field, electric current, and heat release in lithosphere associated with variation of ionosphere conductivity caused by absorption of ionizing radiation of solar flares are presented. A generation of geomagnetic field disturbances in a range of seconds/tens of seconds is possible as a result of large-scale perturbation of a conductivity of the bottom part of ionosphere in horizontal direction in the presence of external electric field. Amplitude-time characteristics of the geomagnetic disturbance depend upon a perturbation of integral conductivity of ionosphere. Depending on relation between integral Hall and Pedersen conductivities of disturbed ionosphere the oscillating and aperiodic modes of magnetic disturbances may be observed. For strong perturbations of the ionosphere conductivities amplitude of pulsations may obtain ~10² nT. In this case the amplitude of horizontal component of electric field on the Earth surface obtains 0.01 mV/m, electric current density in lithosphere –10^–6 A/m², and the power density of heat release produced by the generated current is 10^–7 W/m³. It is shown that the absorption of ionizing radiation of solar flares can result in variations of a density of telluric currents in seismogenic faults comparable with a current density generated in the Earth crust by artificial pulsed power systems (geophysical MHD generator " Pamir-2” and electric pulsed facility " ERGU-600”), which provide regional earthquake triggering and spatiotemporal variation of seismic activity. Therefore, triggering of seismic events is possible not only by man-made pulsed power sources but also by the solar flares. The obtained results may be a physical basis for a novel approach to solve the problem of short-term earthquake prediction based on electromagnetic triggering phenomena.     

Combined method for detecting hidden anomalies in galactic cosmic ray variations

A method has been proposed for detecting hidden periodicities in nonstationary finite time series with strong noise. The successive application of the spectral singular expansion and wavelet transform makes it possible to calculate the energy of short signals with an arbitrary form against a suppressing noise back-ground, the amplitude of which is several times as large as that of a useful signal. This method has been used to identify variations in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux related to IMF disturbances due to the earthward propagation of solar magnetic clouds in the heliosphere.     

Manifestation of heliophysical disturbances in the tropospheric characteristics

The response of the thermobaric characteristics of the high-latitude troposphere to short-term events attributed to solar activity (solar cosmic rays and geomagnetic storms) has been investigated. The spatial manifestation of these disturbances in the troposphere is shown to be of a “focal” character. It is found that the manifestation is most evident in the cold period and depends on the properties of the underlying surface (land, ocean). The properties of the variations of the troposphere air temperature in the manifestation “foci” on the standard isobaric surfaces, as well as the variations of the altitude profile of temperature and the long-wave radiation flux at the upper boundary of the atmosphere, have been considered. The variations of the heat content of the high-latitude troposphere after solar flares have been analyzed. The variation of the thermobaric field is shown to be accompanied by the rearrangement of circulation forms in moderate and polar latitudes. The revealed properties are completely explained within the mechanism proposed here for the solar activity effect on the climatic characteristics of the troposphere.     

Long-term solar activity as a controlling factor for global warming in the 20th century

Such high-resolution indirect data on solar activity as the ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be cosmogenic isotopes have been considered. The long-term solar activity cyclicity during the last millennium with periods of approximately 90 and 210 years, which can be related to substantial climatic warming and cooling events in this millennium, has been established based on an analysis of these data. It has been indicated that long-term recent climate warming can result from the effect of the ∼90- and ∼210-year solar cycles on the climatic system, which is characterized by the nonlinear dynamics.     

A 22 yr hurricane cycle and its relation with geomagnetic activity

Applying spectral analysis to the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane time series, we found periodicities that coincide with the main sunspot and magnetic solar cycles. To assess the possibility that these periodicities could be associated with solar activity, we obtain correlations between hurricane occurrence and several solar activity-related phenomena, such as the total solar irradiance, the cosmic ray flux and the Dst index of geomagnetic activity. Our results indicate that the highest significant correlations are found between the Atlantic and Pacific hurricanes and the Dst index. Most importantly, both oceans present the highest hurricane–Dst correlations during the ascending part of odd solar cycles and the descending phase of even solar cycles. This shows not only the existence of a 22 yr cycle but also the nature of such periodicity. Furthermore, we found that the Atlantic hurricanes behave differently from the Pacific hurricanes in relation to the solar activity-related disturbances considered.     

Thermische Energieflüsse an der Wasseroberfläche: Beispiel Sempachersee

Data collected every 20 minutes for 18 months by a meteorological buoy moored on Lake Sempach in Switzerland (maximum depth 86 m, surface area 14.1 km²) are used to calculate different processes contributing to the net heat flux between water and atmosphere. The processes considered are shortwave and longwave radiation, evaporation/condensation and sensible heat transfer. The temporal resolution of the measurements allows the evaluation of the processes occurring on three different time scales: diurnal variations, weather events of a few days and yearly cycles. The heat content of the lake is calculated from quasi-continuous measurements of water temperature at different depths. The yearly amplitude of the heat content is 1100·10⁶ J/m². Short-time variations of the heat flux determined from water temperature analysis agree well with the flux variations modeled using meteorological data. However, the latter generally underestimates the measured net heat flux in the long term. Wind measurements, together with the net heat flux, are used to calculate the Flux Richardson Number and the Monin-Obukov Length. Examples are given to show the predominant influence of the wind on the stratification of the upper water column and thus on the surface water temperature.      

Numerical modelling of the thermospheric and ionospheric effects of magnetospheric processes in the cusp region

The thermospheric and ionospheric effects of the precipitating electron flux and field-aligned-current variations in the cusp have been modelled by the use of a new version of the global numerical model of the Earths upper atmosphere developed for studies of polar phenomena. The responses of the electron concentration, ion, electron and neutral temperature, thermospheric wind velocity and electric-field potential to the variations of the precipitating 0.23-keV electron flux intensity and field-aligned current density in the cusp have been calculated by solving the corresponding continuity, momentum and heat balance equations. Features of the atmospheric gravity wave generation and propagation from the cusp region after the electron precipitation and field-aligned current-density increases have been found for the cases of the motionless and moving cusp region. The magnitudes of the disturbances are noticeably larger in the case of the moving region of the precipitation. The thermospheric disturbances are generated mainly by the thermospheric heating due to the soft electron precipitation and propagate to lower latitudes as large-scale atmospheric gravity waves with the mean horizontal velocity of about 690 ms^–1. They reveal appreciable magnitudes at significant distances from the cusp region. The meridional-wind-velocity disturbance at 65° geomagnetic latitude is of the same order (100 ms^–1) as the background wind due to the solar heating, but is oppositely directed. The ionospheric disturbances have appreciable magnitudes at the geomagnetic latitudes 70°–85°. The electron-concentration and -temperature disturbances are caused mainly by the ionization and heating processes due to the precipitation, whereas the ion-temperature disturbances are influence strongly by Joule heating of the ion gas due to the electric-field disturbances in the cusp. The latter strongly influence the zonal- and meridional-wind disturbances as well via the effects of ion drag in the cusp region. The results obtained are of interest because of the location of the     

冕洞与太阳风高速流关系的统计研究:到达时间、持续时间和峰值强度

冕洞是太阳风高速流的源区.当冕洞出现在中低纬区域时,太阳风高速流会扫过地球并引发地球空间环境扰动,如地磁暴和高能电子暴等.在太阳活动周下降年和低年,这种类型的扰动占据主导地位.因此,冕洞高速流的到达时间、峰值时间、峰值强度和持续时间等,是空间天气预报的重要内容.本文基于2010年5月到2016年12月的SDO/AIA太阳极紫外图像以及1AU处ACE和WIND卫星的太阳风观测数据,确定了160个冕洞-太阳风高速流事件,定量计算了他们的特征参数,包括冕洞与太阳风高速流的开始时间、峰值时间、峰值强度和结束时间,分析了各个特征参数的分布规律,对冕洞-高速流之间的关系进行了统计研究,并提出了一种新的预报方法,为基于冕洞成像观测的太阳风高速流的精准预报提供了依据.     

Beginning of the new solar cycle (cycle 24) in the large-scale open solar magnetic field

It is proposed to determined minimums of the 11-year solar cycles based on a minimal flux of the large-scale open solar magnetic field. The minimal fluxes before the finished cycle 23 (Carrington rotation CR 1904) and the started cycle 24 (CR 2054, April 2007) were equal to 1.8 × 10²² and 1.2 × 10²² μs, respectively. The long-term tendency toward an approach to a deep minimum of solar activity is confirmed. On the assumption that magnetic flux variations from minimums to maximums are proportional to each other, the anticipated value of the maximal Wolf number during cycle 24 is estimated as W _max = 80.     

Solar eclipse of August 1, 2008, above Kharkov: 2. Observation results of wave disturbances in the ionosphere

Quasi-periodic variations in the power of incoherent scattered signals, caused by wave disturbances of the electron concentration in the ionosphere, are analyzed for the day of a partial solar eclipse and for a background day. The windowed and adaptive Fourier transforms and the wavelet transform are used for spectral analysis. The spectral parameters of the wave disturbances at altitudes of 100–500 km in the 10–120 min period range differed significantly on the day of the solar eclipse and on the background day. Variations in the spectrum began near the onset of the phase of maximum disk occultation and continued no less than 2 h. The amplitude of time variations N was 2 × 10⁹–4 × 10¹⁰ m^?3, and the relative amplitude was 0.10–0.15. Wave disturbances have been compared for five solar eclipses; the comparison shows a noticeable variation in the spectrum of the wave disturbances during these events.     

Total Solar Irradiance Observations

The record of total solar irradiance (TSI) during the past 35?years has overlapping observations from space which can be merged to a composite, and three are available, namely the PMOD, the ACRIM and the IRMB composites. There are important differences between them, which are discussed in detail in order to find the best representation of solar variability during the last three cycles, for the following discussions of solar irradiance variability. Moreover, the absolute value of TSI from TIM on SORCE is 1,361?Wm^?2, substantially lower than the value 1,365?Wm^?2, which was observed by the classical radiometers. New results from specific experiments are now available, which are discussed in order to define the value to be used in, e.g., climate models. The most important issue regarding the recent TSI records is the low value observed during the minimum in 2009, which is 25% of a typical cycle amplitude lower than the value in 1996. The validity of this low value has been confirmed by comparing all existing TSI observations during cycle 23. On the other hand, activity indices, such as the sunspot number, the 10.7-cm radio flux (F10.7), the CaII and MgII indices and also the Ly-α irradiance or the frequency changes in low-order p modes, show a much smaller decreases relative to their respective typical cycle amplitude. It is most likely that an increasing contrast of the facular and network elements with decreasing magnetic field is responsible for this discrepancy. The value of TSI at minima is correlated with the open magnetic field of the Sun, B _R,?at minima. Using B _R at minima, interpolated linearly in between as a fourth component of a proxy model based on the photometric sunspot index and on the MgII index improves the explanation of the variance of TSI over the full period of the last three solar cycles to 84.7%. Results from other models are also discussed.     

Model of intermittency of grand minimums and maximums in the solar dynamo

The αΩ-dynamo model with casual fluctuations of parameter α reproduces all main indications of solar grand minimums and maximums. If we take the dependence of turbulent diffusivity on the magnetic field into account, we obtain the phenomenon of hysteresis, when two solutions are possible in a certain interval of dynamo number values: decaying oscillations of weak fields and magnetic cycles with a constant and a large amplitude, which are formed depending on initial conditions. Fluctuations in parameter α result in transitions between these regimes, and the computations indicate that magnetic cycles with a relative large amplitude alternate with epochs of weak magnetic fields. Such behavior can be used as a model of grand minimums and maximums of solar activity.     

Solar activity and dynamic processes in the atmosphere and world ocean heat content

The scenario of climatic changes in the 20th century has been presented in the scope of the developed model concerning the effect of solar activity on the parameters of the climatic system governing the energy flux, outgoing from the Earth into space in the high-latitude regions. The regularities of changes in the circulation in the atmosphere and ocean are discussed. Specific attention is paid to the causes of a “cold snap” in 1940–1976 in the Northern Hemisphere and the nature of an anomalous increase in the heat content in the Earth climatic system (ocean) in 1969–1980. It has been indicated that these phenomena result from changes in the circulation in the atmosphere and ocean (specifically, a change in the thermohaline circulation in the Northern Atlantic), heat exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere and cryosphere.     

地磁活动对气候要素影响的研究进展

地磁活动是太阳爆发现象引起地球近地空间磁场扰动的重要空间天气过程之一.地球磁场的变化具有多种时间尺度,其中从数十年到数世纪的长时间地磁场变化主要是由地核磁场引起的,而从数秒到数年的短时间地磁变化与太阳活动有关.近年来,越来越多的统计研究表明,地磁活动与太阳活动和地球气候变化之间存在着显著的相关性.地球磁场和地球大气系统的耦合现象驱动着人们探索地磁活动对地球天气和气候系统影响的研究.本文的目的就是综述国内外地磁变化对气候影响的研究进展,介绍我们最新的研究成果,探索地磁活动对气候要素的影响特征和可能机理过程,为深入研究地磁活动对地球天气和气候的影响提供基础和依据,以期对地磁活动和气候要素关系有进一步的认识.     

Variations in the amplitude and phase of VLF radiowaves in the ionosphere during the August 1, 2008, solar eclipse

Time variations in the amplitude and phase of signals of the Russian telecommunication station (the frequency is 25 kHz) on the Arkhangelsk—Kharkov path with a length of about 1600 km on the day of the August 1, 2008 solar eclipse (SE) and on the adjacent days are analyzed. Two types of effects are detected. An increase of the signal amplitude by approximately 32% in comparison with the background days and the 2.1 μs time shift of the signal during 2—2.5 h is referred to the first type. Changes in the spectral composition of the quasiperiodic disturbances in the ionosphere presented the second type of the effects. For spectral analysis of the quasiperiodic variations in the amplitude and phase of the radio signal, the window Fourier transform, adaptive Fourier transform, and wavelet transformation were applied simultaneously. In the period of SE and after it, oscillations with periods of 10—15 min (according to the amplitude data) and also about 10 and 18 min (according to the phase data) were intensified. Based on radio signal characteristics, the parameters of ionospheric disturbances are estimated.     

Long-term solar cycles according to data on the cosmogenic beryllium concentration in ice of central Greenland

Data on the concentrations of the cosmogenic ¹⁰Be isotope and Na⁺ and Ca²⁺ ions, as well as on ice accumulation rates in central Greenland, obtained by the GISP2 collaboration were studied in a time interval spanning about 40 000 recent years. Joint analysis of the indicated glacial and chemical paleoseries demonstrated that in a period from 12 008 to 24 008 years ago, the ¹⁰Be flux variations were most free of influence of climate and changes in the geomagnetic dipole moment. As a consequence, this time interval is most suitable for studying periodicities of purely solar nature. Statistical analysis of the ¹⁰Be flux data has revealed significant variations with periods of 500–800 years and 1300–1600 years in the time interval from 12 008 to 17 008 years ago. This evidence favors the existence of the appropriate cycles of solar activity in the mentioned epoch. Similar periodicities are also revealed in the time interval from 3288 to 8008 years ago.     

Natural climatic oscillations driven by solar activity

Many climatic parameters (ground and ocean surface temperatures, pressure, atmospheric precipitation, etc.) have temporal variations with characteristic periods from several to several tens of years or more. The unknown cause of these oscillations, together with the similarity of some of them to known solar cycles, has stimulated attempts to relate these two phenomena. The basic arguments against the existence of such a relationship are that variations in climatic parameters do not always occur synchronously with the corresponding 11- and 22-year solar cycles: the phase shift between climatic and solar variations is inconstant and changes with time from 0° to 180°. In addition, the energy of terrestrial manifestations of solar activity seems insufficient to stimulate the considered weather-climatic processes, at least within the limits of the linear approach. In the present work, it is shown that in some cases, these contradictions can be removed for variations with a period more than 11 years under the assumption that climatic variations are forced oscillations driven by an external force (for example, a force related to solar activity), that implies the existence of intrinsic (natural) climatic oscillations. The result serves as an additional argument in favor of the reality of a sun-climate connection and probably points to its probable nonlinear mechanism.     

Possible link between multi-decadal climate cycles and periodic reversals of solar magnetic field polarity

The linkage between multi-decadal climate variability and activity of the sun has been long debated based upon observational evidence from a large number of instrumental and proxy records. It is difficult to evaluate the exact role of each of solar parameters on climate change since instrumentally measured solar related parameters such as Total Solar irradiance (TSI), Ultra Violet (UV), solar wind and Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) fluxes are more or less synchronized and only extend back for several decades. Here we report tree-ring carbon-14 based record of 11-year/22-year solar cycles during the Maunder Minimum (17th century) and the early Medieval Maximum Period (9–10th century) to reconstruct the state of the sun and the flux of incoming GCRs. The result strongly indicates that the influence of solar cycles on climate is persistent beyond the period after instrumental observations were initiated. We find that the actual lengths of solar cycles vary depending on the status of long-term solar activity, and that periodicity of the surface air temperatures are also changing synchronously. Temperature variations over the 22-year cycles seem, in general, to be more significant than those associated with the 11-year cycles and in particular around the grand solar minima such as the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715 AD). The polarity dependence of cooling events found in this study suggests that the GCRs can not be excluded from the possible drivers of decadal to multi-decadal climate change.     

Climate variation since the Last Interglaciation recorded in the Guliya ice core

The climatic and environmental variations since the Last Interglaciation are reconstructed based on the study of the upper 268 m of the 309-m-long Guliya ice core. Five stages can be distinguished since the Last Interglaciation from the δ¹⁸O record in the Guliya ice core: Stage 1 (Deglaciation), Stage2 (the Last Glacial Maximum), Stage 3 (interstadial), Stage 4 (interstadial in the early glacial maximum) and Stage 5 (the Last Interglaciation). Stage 5 can be divided further into 5 substages; a, b, c, d, e. The δ¹⁸O record in the Guliya ice core indicates clearly the close correlation between the temperature variation on the Tibetan Plateau and the solar activities. The study indicates that the solar activity is a main forcing to the climatic variation on the Tibetan Plateau. Through a comparison of the ice core record in Guliya with that in the Greenland and the Antarctic, it can be found that the variation of large temperature variation events in different parts of the world is generally the same, but the variation amplitude of temperature is different. Project supported by thc Climbing Program of the State Eighth Five-Year Plan and the National Natural Science Foundation of China.     

Imprint of Climate Variability on Mesozoic Fossil Tree Rings: Evidences of Solar Activity Signals on Environmental Records Around 200 Million Years Ago?

Evidence of the solar activity modulation of the Earth’s climate has been observed on several parameters, from decadal to millennial time scales. Several proxies have been used to reconstruct the paleoclimate as well as the solar activity. The paleoclimate reconstructions are based on direct and/or indirect effects of global and regional climate conditions. The solar activity reconstructions are based on the production of the ¹⁴C isotope due to the interaction of cosmic ray flux and the Earth’s atmosphere. Because trees respond to climate conditions and store ¹⁴C, they have been used as proxies for both for climate and solar activity reconstructions. The imprints of solar activity cycles dating back to 10,000 years ago have been observed on tree-ring samples using ¹⁴C data, and those dating back to 20 million years ago have been analyzed using fossil tree-growth rings. All this corresponds to the Cenozoic era. However, solar activity imprints on tree rings from earlier than that era have not been investigated yet. In this work, we showed that tree rings from the Mesozoic Era (of ~200 million years ago) recorded 11- and 22-year cycles, which may be related to solar activity cycles, and that were statistically significant at the 95 % confidence level. The fossil wood was collected in the southern region of Brazil. Our analysis of the fossils' tree-ring width series power spectra showed characteristics similar to the modern araucaria tree, with a noticeable decadal periodicity. Assuming that the Earth’s climate responds to solar variability and that responses did not vary significantly over the last ~200 million years, we conclude that the solar–climate connection was likely present during the Mesozoic era.