Competitiveness of terrestrial greenhouse gas offsets: are they a bridge to the future?

Activities to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by biological soil or forest carbon sequestration predominantly utilize currently known, readily implementable technologies. Many other greenhouse gas emission reduction options require future technological development or must wait for turnover of capital stock. Carbon sequestration options in soils and forests, while ready to go now, generally have a finite life, allowing use until other strategies are developed. This paper reports on an investigation of the competitiveness of biological carbon sequestration from a dynamic and multiple strategy viewpoint. Key factors affecting the competitiveness of terrestrial mitigation options are land availability and cost effectiveness relative to other options including CO₂ capture and storage, energy efficiency improvements, fuel switching, and non-CO₂ greenhouse gas emission reductions. The analysis results show that, at lower CO₂ prices and in the near term, soil carbon and other agricultural/forestry options can be important bridges to the future, initially providing a substantial portion of attainable reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions, but with a limited role in later years. At higher CO₂ prices, afforestation and biofuels are more dominant among terrestrial options to offset greenhouse gas emissions. But in the longer run, allowing for capital stock turnover, options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the energy system and biofuels provide an increasing share of potential reductions in total US greenhouse gas emissions.     

Impacts of different diffusion scenarios for mitigation technology options and of model representations regarding renewables intermittency on evaluations of CO2 emissions reductions

This paper evaluated the impacts of climate change mitigation technology options on CO₂ emission reductions and the effects of model representations regarding renewable intermittency on the assessment of reduction by using a world energy systems model. First, different diffusion scenarios for carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, and wind power and solar PV are selected from EMF27 scenarios to analyze their impacts on CO₂ emission reductions. These technologies are important for reducing CO₂ intensity of electricity, and the impacts of their diffusion levels on mitigation costs are significant, according to the analyses. Availability of CCS in particular, among the three kinds of technologies, has a large impact on the marginal CO₂ abatement cost. In order to analyze effects of model representations regarding renewables intermittency, four different representations are assumed within the model. A simplistic model representation that does not take into consideration the intermittency of wind power and solar PV evaluates larger contributions of the energy sources than those evaluated by a model representation that takes intermittency into consideration. Appropriate consideration of renewables intermittency within global energy systems models will be important for realistic evaluations of climate change mitigation scenarios.     

Defining deep decarbonization pathways for Switzerland: an economic evaluation

This article simulates deep decarbonization pathways for a small open economy that lacks the usual avenues for large CO₂ reductions – heavy industry and power generation. A computable general equilibrium model is used to assess the energy and economic impacts of the transition to only one ton of CO₂ emissions per capita in 2050. This represents a 76% reduction with respect to 1990 levels, while the population is expected to be 46% larger and GPD to increase by 90%. The article discusses several options and scenarios that are compatible with this emissions target and compares them with a reference scenario that extrapolates already-decided climate and energy policy instruments. We show that the ambitious target is attainable at moderate welfare costs, even if it needs very high carbon prices, and that these costs are lower when either CO₂ can be captured and sequestered or electricity consumption can be taxed sufficiently to stabilize it.

Policy relevance

In the context of COP 21, all countries must propose intended contributions that involve deep decarbonization of their economy over the next decades. This article defines and analyses such pathways for Switzerland, taking into consideration the existing energy demand and supply and also already-defined climate policies. It draws several scenarios that are compatible with a target of 1 ton of CO₂ emissions per capita in 2050. This objective is very challenging, especially with the nuclear phase out decided after the disaster in Fukushima and the political decision to balance electricity trade. Nevertheless, it is possible to design several feasible pathways that are based on different options. The economic cost is significant but affordable for the Swiss economy. The insights are relevant not only for Switzerland, but also for other industrialized countries when defining their INDCs.     

Terrestrial carbon pools in southeast and south-central United States

Analyses of regional carbon sources and sinks are essential to assess the economical feasibility of various carbon sequestration technologies for mitigating atmospheric CO₂ accumulation and for preventing global warming. Such an inventory is a prerequisite for regional trading of CO₂ emissions. As a U.S. Department of Energy Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partner, we have estimated the state-level terrestrial carbon pools in the southeast and south-central US. This region includes: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. We have also projected the potential for terrestrial carbon sequestration in the region. Texas is the largest contributor (34%) to greenhouse gas emission in the region. The total terrestrial carbon storage (forest biomass and soils) in the southeast and south-central US is estimated to be 130 Tg C/year. An annual forest carbon sink (estimated as 76 Tg C/year) could compensate for 13% of the regional total annual greenhouse gas emission (505 Tg C, 1990 estimate). Through proper policies and the best land management practices, 54 Tg C/year could be sequestered in soils. Thus, terrestrial sinks can capture 23% of the regional total greenhouse emission and hence are one of the most cost-effective options for mitigating greenhouse emission in the region.     

Sink Potential of Canadian Agricultural Soils

Net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from Canadian crop and livestock production were estimated for 1990, 1996 and 2001 and projected to 2008. Net emissions were also estimated for three scenarios (low (L), medium (M) and high (H)) of adoption of sink enhancing practices above the projected 2008 level. Carbon sequestration estimates were based on four sink-enhancing activities: conversion from conventional to zero tillage (ZT), reduced frequency of summerfallow (SF), the conversion of cropland to permanent cover crops (PC), and improved grazing land management (GM). GHG emissions were estimated with the Canadian Economic and Emissions Model for Agriculture (CEEMA). CEEMA estimates levels of production activities within the Canadian agriculture sector and calculates the emissions and removals associated with those levels of activities. The estimates indicate a decline in net emissions from 54 Tg CO₂–Eq yr^–1 in1990 to 52 Tg CO₂–Eq yr^–1 in 2008. Adoption of thesink-enhancing practices above the level projected for 2008 resulted in further declines in emissions to 48 Tg CO₂–Eq yr^–1 (L), 42 TgCO₂–Eq yr^–1 (M) or 36 Tg CO₂–Eq yr^–1 (H). Among thesink-enhancing practices, the conversion from conventional tillage to ZT provided the largest C sequestration potential and net reduction in GHG emissions among the scenarios. Although rates of C sequestration were generally higher for conversion of cropland to PC and adoption of improved GM, those scenarios involved smaller areas of land and therefore less C sequestration. Also, increased areas of PC were associated with an increase in livestock numbers and CH₄ and N₂O emissions from enteric fermentation andmanure, which partially offset the carbon sink. The CEEMA estimates indicate that soil C sinks are a viable option for achieving the UNFCCC objective of protecting and enhancing GHG sinks and reservoirs as a means of reducing GHG emissions (UNFCCC, 1992).     

Towards a Multi-Criteria Methodology for Assessment of Geological Carbon Storage Options

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) could achieve drastic cuts in the CO₂ emissions associated with fossil fuels in the near to medium term and has been promoted as a significant climate change mitigation option. As the profile of this family of technologies grows rapidly, there remain many uncertainties relating to its viability, effectiveness and desirability. In this paper we begin to map out some of the key issues associated with CCS, using a multi-criteria approach to explore how an (admittedly small) selection of stakeholders perceive alternative storage options and energy scenarios. We present five long-term scenarios describing alternative ways in which the UK energy system could develop and which deploy different levels of carbon storage. The key storage options considered are oil and gas fields (both disused and with enhanced oil recovery), traps in saline aquifers, saline aquifers outside traps and on-shore sites. The relative performance of the scenarios and the storage reservoirs included within them have been assessed against a set of socio-economic, technical and environmental criteria by a small selection of stakeholders to the carbon storage debate. Whilst we cannot make strong conclusions regarding precise stakeholder opinions at this stage due to the small size of the sample, the broad delineation of the arguments for and against CCS are evident. Multi-criteria assessment (MCA) appears to hold much potential as a useful tool for characterising and better understanding differences in stakeholder assessments of CCS and its implications, and for identifying options around which greater consensus on the desirability (or otherwise) of CCS as a mitigation strategy might emerge.     

What future for primary aluminium production in a decarbonizing economy?

Aluminium is an energy intensive material with an environmental footprint strongly dependent on the electricity mix consumed by the smelting process. This study models prospective environmental impacts of primary aluminium production according to different integrated assessment modeling scenarios building on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their climate change mitigation scenarios. Results project a global average carbon intensity ranging between 8.6 and 18.0 kg CO₂ eq/kg in 2100, compared to 18.3 kg CO₂ eq/kg at present, that could be further reduced under mitigation scenarios. Co-benefits with other environmental indicators are observed. Scaling aluminium production impacts to the global demand shows total emission between 1250 and 1590 Gt CO₂ eq for baseline scenarios by 2050 while absolute decoupling is only achievable with stringent climate policy changing drastically the electricity mix. Achieving larger emission reductions will require circular strategies that go beyond primary material production itself and involve other stakeholders along the aluminium value chain.     

CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> and non-CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> radiative forcings in climate projections for twenty-first century mitigation scenarios

Climate is simulated for reference and mitigation emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models using the Bern2.5CC carbon cycle–climate model. Mitigation options encompass all major radiative forcing agents. Temperature change is attributed to forcings using an impulse–response substitute of Bern2.5CC. The contribution of CO₂ to global warming increases over the century in all scenarios. Non-CO₂ mitigation measures add to the abatement of global warming. The share of mitigation carried by CO₂, however, increases when radiative forcing targets are lowered, and increases after 2000 in all mitigation scenarios. Thus, non-CO₂ mitigation is limited and net CO₂ emissions must eventually subside. Mitigation rapidly reduces the sulfate aerosol loading and associated cooling, partly masking Greenhouse Gas mitigation over the coming decades. A profound effect of mitigation on CO₂ concentration, radiative forcing, temperatures and the rate of climate change emerges in the second half of the century.     

Benefits from increased cooperation and energy trade under CO2 commitments—The Nordic case

In this paper, benefits from increasing cross-border cooperation under future CO₂ commitments in the Nordic countries are examined and evaluated. Four cooperative strategies are analyzed and valued separately: cross-border electricity trade, cross-border emission-permit trade, the introduction of a trans-Nordic natural gas transmission grid, and, finally, utilization of all these three strategies simultaneously. The valuation is done under varying CO₂ commitments and under three different scenarios for future energy demand and technological development. In conducting this analysis, the energy-systems model-generator MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) was used to model the Nordic energy system. It is shown that all cooperative strategies do lower the abatement costs considerably, especially if the strategy including full cooperation is utilized. In this case, additional costs from meeting CO₂ targets may be at least halved for commitments less than 10% reduction until 2050 based on emissions in 1995. No significant difference between low and high CO₂ commitments could be observed in the size of the benefits from cooperation, expressed in billions (10⁹) of Swedish crowns. Benefits from cooperation are generally larger for scenarios including relatively higher future energy demand.     

Russia at GHG Market

In the first Kyoto commitment period Russia could be the major supplier for the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions market. Potential Russian supply depends on the ability of Russia to keep GHG emissions lower than the Kyoto target. In the literature there is no common understanding of the total trading potential of Russia at the international carbon market. In this paper we focus on CO₂ emission, which constituted nearly 80%of Russian GHG emission. We compare different projections of Russian CO₂emission and analyze the most important factors, which predetermine the CO₂emission growth. In a transition economy these factors are: Gross Domestic Product(GDP) dynamic, changes of GDP structure, innovation activity, transformation of export-import flows and response to the market signals. The input-output macroeconomic model with the two different input-output tables representing old and new production technologies has been applied for the analysis to simulate technological innovations and structural changes in the Russian economy during transition period. The Russian supply at the international GHG market without forest sector may be up to 3 billion metric ton of CO₂ equivalent. Earlier actions to reduce CO₂ emission are critical to insure theRussiansupply at the international carbon market. With regard to the current status of the Russian capital market, the forward trading with OECD countries is only the possibility to raise initial investments to roll no-regret and low-cost GHG reduction. This paper discusses uncertainties of RussianCO₂emission dynamics and analyzes the different incentives to lower the emission pathway.     

Scenarios for a 2 °C world: a trade-linked input–output model with high sector detail

In this study a scenario model is used to examine if foreseen technological developments are capable of reducing CO₂ emissions in 2050 to a level consistent with United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreements, which aim at maximizing the temperature rise to 2 °C compared to pre-industrial levels. The model is based on a detailed global environmentally extended supply–use table (EE SUT) for the year 2000, called EXIOBASE. This global EE SUT allows calculating how the final demand in each region drives activities in production sectors, and hence related CO₂ emissions, in each region. Using this SUT framework, three scenarios have been constructed for the year 2050. The first is a business-as-usual scenario (BAU), which takes into account population, economic growth, and efficiency improvements. The second is a techno-scenario (TS), adding feasible and probable climate mitigation technologies to the BAU scenario. The third is the towards-2-degrees scenario (2DS), with a demand shift or growth reduction scenario added to the TS to create a 2 °C scenario. The emission results of the three scenarios are roughly in line with outcomes of typical scenarios from integrated assessment models. Our approach indicates that the 2 °C target seems difficult to reach with advanced CO₂ emission reduction technologies alone.

Policy relevance

The overall outlook in this scenario study is not optimistic. We show that CO₂ emissions from steel and cement production and air and sea transport will become dominant in 2050. They are difficult to reduce further. Using biofuels in air and sea transport will probably be problematic due to the fact that agricultural production largely will be needed to feed a rising global population and biofuel use for electricity production grows substantially in 2050. It seems that a more pervasive pressure towards emission reduction is required, also influencing the basic fabric of society in terms of types and volumes of energy use, materials use, and transport. Reducing envisaged growth levels, hence reducing global gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, might be one final contribution needed for moving to the 2 °C target, but is not on political agendas now.     

Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs

On the basis of the IPCC B2, A1b and B1 baseline scenarios, mitigation scenarios were developed that stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at 650, 550 and 450 and – subject to specific assumptions – 400 ppm CO₂-eq. The analysis takes into account a large number of reduction options, such as reductions of non-CO₂ gases, carbon plantations and measures in the energy system. The study shows stabilization as low as 450 ppm CO₂-eq. to be technically feasible, even given relatively high baseline scenarios. To achieve these lower concentration levels, global emissions need to peak within the first two decades. The net present value of abatement costs for the B2 baseline scenario (a medium scenario) increases from 0.2% of cumulative GDP to 1.1% as the shift is made from 650 to 450 ppm. On the other hand, the probability of meeting a two-degree target increases from 0%–10% to 20%–70%. The mitigation scenarios lead to lower emissions of regional air pollutants but also to increased land use. The uncertainty in the cost estimates is at least in the order of 50%, with the most important uncertainties including land-use emissions, the potential for bio-energy and the contribution of energy efficiency. Furthermore, creating the right socio-economic and political conditions for mitigation is more important than any of the technical constraints.     

The Carbon Cycle of Sandy Lands in China and its GlobalSignificance

The quantitative C dynamics of desertifiedlands in Northern China were predicted for the years2000 and 2030, based on the areas and conversion rates(positive and negative) of desertified lands in thepast forty years and organic carbon contents of soils.The top 1.0 m soil layer of natural desertified landsin China contained some 7,841 Tg of organic carbon asof 1992. In China, over the last 40 years, a total of2,812 Tg of organic carbon was released from desertlands and, in the reverse process about 644 Tg oforganic-C were fixed into lands undergoingdesertification. Thus, China's desert lands have showna net release of 2,168 Tg of organic-C over the past40 years, equivalent to 7,949 Tg of CO₂. By theyear 2000, the area of desertified lands in China hadincreased 40,300 km² and released 368 Tg oforganic-C into the atmosphere. By 2030 this area willincrease to 249,700 km² and release about 1,996 Tg of organic-Cinto the atmosphere. Net releases of151 Tg and 1,243 Tg of organic-C can be expectedby the year 2000 and 2030, respectively. This wouldbe equivalent to a net release of 553 Tg of CO₂by 2000 and 4,558 Tg by 2030. Thus, the organiccarbon released through land desertification in Chinacould be an important factor affecting changes inconcentrations of greenhouse gases worldwide.     

An Overview of Terrestrial Sequestration of Carbon Dioxide: the United States Department of Energy's Fossil Energy R&D Program

Increasing concentrations of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases (GHG) in the Earth's atmosphere have the potential to enhance the natural greenhouse effect, which may result in climatic changes. The main anthropogenic contributors to this increase are fossil fuel combustion, land use conversion, and soil cultivation. It is clear that overcoming the challenge of global climate change will require a combination of approaches, including increased energy efficiency, energy conservation, alternative energy sources, and carbon (C) capture and sequestration. The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring the development of new technologies that can provide energy and promote economic prosperity while reducing GHG emissions. One option that can contribute to achieving this goal is the capture and sequestration of CO₂ in geologic formations. An alternative approach is C sequestration in terrestrial ecosystsems through natural processes. Enhancing such natural pools (known as natural sequestration) can make a significant contribution to CO₂ management strategies with the potential to sequester about 290 Tg C/y in U.S. soils. In addition to soils, there is also a large potential for C sequestration in above and belowground biomass in forest ecosystems.A major area of interest to DOE's fossil energy program is reclaimed mined lands, of which there may be 0.63 ×10⁶ ha in the U.S. These areas are essentially devoid of soil C; therefore, they provide an excellent opportunity to sequester C in both soils and vegetation. Measurement of C in these ecosystems requires the development of new technology and protocols that are accurate and economically viable. Field demonstrations are needed to accurately determine C sequestration potential and to demonstrate the ecological and aesthetic benefits in improved soil and water quality, increased biodiversity, and restored ecosystems.The DOE's research program in natural sequestration highlights fundamental and applied studies, such as the development of measurement, monitoring, and verification technologies and protocols and field tests aimed at developing techniques for maximizing the productivity of hitherto infertile soils and degraded ecosystems.     

Benefits from increased cooperation and energy trade under CO2 commitments—The Nordic case

Abstract

In this paper, benefits from increasing cross-border cooperation under future CO₂ commitments in the Nordic countries are examined and evaluated. Four cooperative strategies are analyzed and valued separately: cross-border electricity trade, cross-border emission-permit trade, the introduction of a trans-Nordic natural gas transmission grid, and, finally, utilization of all these three strategies simultaneously. The valuation is done under varying CO₂ commitments and under three different scenarios for future energy demand and technological development. In conducting this analysis, the energy-systems model-generator MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) was used to model the Nordic energy system. It is shown that all cooperative strategies do lower the abatement costs considerably, especially if the strategy including full cooperation is utilized. In this case, additional costs from meeting CO₂ targets may be at least halved for commitments less than 10% reduction until 2050 based on emissions in 1995. No significant difference between low and high CO₂ commitments could be observed in the size of the benefits from cooperation, expressed in billions (10⁹) of Swedish crowns. Benefits from cooperation are generally larger for scenarios including relatively higher future energy demand.     

How to reach an elusive INDC target: macro-economic implications of carbon taxation and emissions trading in Turkey

This paper employs a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) to analyse how a carbon tax and/or a national Emissions Trading System (ETS) would affect macroeconomic parameters in Turkey. The modelling work is based on three main policy options for the government by 2030, in the context of Turkey’s mitigation target under its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), that is, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by up to 21% from its Business as Usual (BAU) scenario in 2030: (i) improving the productivity of renewable energy by 1% per annum, a target already included in the INDC, (ii) introducing a new flat rate tax of 15% per ton of CO₂ (of a reference carbon price in world markets) imposed on emissions originating from carbon-intensive sectors, and (iii) introducing a new ETS with caps on emission permits. Our base path scenario projects that GHG emissions in 2030 will be much lower than Turkey’s BAU trajectory of growth from 430 Mt CO₂-eq in 2013 to 1.175 Mt CO₂-eq by 2030, implying that the government’s commitment is largely redundant. On the other hand, if the official target is assumed to be only a simple reduction percentage in 2030 (by 21%), but based on our more realistic base path, the government’s current renewable energy plans will not be sufficient to reach it.

• Turkey’s official INDC is based on over-optimistic assumptions of GDP growth and a highly carbon-intensive development pathway;

• A carbon tax and/or an ETS would be required to reach the 21% reduction target over a realistic base path scenario for 2030;

• The policy options considered in this paper have some effects on major sectors’ shares in total value-added. Yet the reduction in the shares of agriculture, industry, and transportation does not go beyond 1%, while the service sector seems to benefit from most of the policy options;

• Overall employment would be affected positively by the renewable energy target, carbon tax, and ETS through the creation of new jobs;

• Unemployment rates are lower, economic growth is stronger, and households become better off to a larger extent under an ETS than carbon taxation.

     

Deforestation in Russia and its contribution to the anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide in 1990–2013

The contribution of deforestation in Russia to the anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in 1990–2013 is estimated using the methods of computational monitoring. It is found that since 1990 the area of deforestation and forest conversion to other land-use categories is equal to 628.4 x 10³ ha. The respective CO₂ emissions from deforestation in Russia for the whole analyzed period are estimated at 142200 kt CO₂ with the average annual value of 5900 + 2270 kt CO₂/year. The largest contribution to the total losses is made by the changes in soil carbon stock (41.6%) and biomass carbon losses (28.8%). CO₂ emissions from deforestation make an insignificant contribution to the total anthropogenic CO₂ emission in the country (0.2%). Among the CO₂ sources in the land use, land-use change, and forestry sector (LULUCF), the emission from deforestation is the lowest with the average for 1990–2013 contribution of about 0.6%.     

Managing atmospheric CO2

A coupled carbon cycle-climate model is used to compute global atmospheric CO₂ and temperature variation that would result from several future CO₂ emission scenarios. The model includes temperature and CO₂ feedbacks on the terrestrial biosphere, and temperature feedback on the oceanic uptake of CO₂. The scenarios used include cases in which fossil fuel CO₂ emissions are held constant at the 1986 value or increase by 1% yr^–1 until either 2000 or 2020, followed by a gradual transition to a rate of decrease of 1 or 2% yr^–1. The climatic effect of increases in non-CO₂ trace gases is included, and scenarios are considered in which these gases increase until 2075 or are stabilized once CO₂ emission reductions begin. Low and high deforestation scenarios are also considered. In all cases, results are computed for equilibrium climatic sensitivities to CO₂ doubling of 2.0 and 4.0 °C.Peak atmospheric CO₂ concentrations of 400–500 ppmv and global mean warming after 1980 of 0.6–3.2 °C occur, with maximum rates of global mean warming of 0.2–0.3 °C decade^–1. The peak CO₂ concentrations in these scenarios are significantly below that commonly regarded as unavoidable; further sensitivity analyses suggest that limiting atmospheric CO₂ to as little as 400 ppmv is a credible option.Two factors in the model are important in limiting atmospheric CO₂: (1) the airborne fraction falls rapidly once emissions begin to decrease, so that total emissions (fossil fuel + land use-induced) need initially fall to only about half their present value in order to stabilize atmospheric CO₂, and (2) changes in rates of deforestation have an immediate and proportional effect on gross emissions from the biosphere, whereas the CO₂ sink due to regrowth of forests responds more slowly, so that decreases in the rate of deforestation have a disproportionately large effect on net emission.If fossil fuel emissions were to decrease at 1–2% yr^–1 beginning early in the next century, emissions could decrease to the rate of CO₂ uptake by the predominantly oceanic sink within 50–100 yrs. Simulation results suggest that if subsequent emission reductions were tied to the rate of CO₂ uptake by natural CO₂ sinks, these reductions could proceed more slowly than initially while preventing further CO₂ increases, since the natural CO₂ sink strength decreases on time scales of one to several centuries. The model used here does not account for the possible effect on atmospheric CO₂ concentration of possible changes in oceanic circulation. Based on past rates of atmospheric CO₂ variation determined from polar ice cores, it appears that the largest plausible perturbation in ocean-air CO₂ flux due to changes of oceanic circulation is substantially smaller than the permitted fossil fuel CO₂ emissions under the above strategy, so tieing fossil fuel emissions to the total sink strength could provide adequate flexibility for responding to unexpected changes in oceanic CO₂ uptake caused by climatic warming-induced changes of oceanic circulation.     

Consequences of Incomplete Surface Energy Balance Closure for CO2 Fluxes from Open-Path CO2/H2O Infrared Gas Analysers

We present an approach for assessing the impact of systematic biases in measured energy fluxes on CO₂ flux estimates obtained from open-path eddy-covariance systems. In our analysis, we present equations to analyse the propagation of errors through the Webb, Pearman, and Leuning (WPL) algorithm [Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 106, 85–100, 1980] that is widely used to account for density fluctuations on CO₂ flux measurements. Our results suggest that incomplete energy balance closure does not necessarily lead to an underestimation of CO₂ fluxes despite the existence of surface energy imbalance; either an overestimation or underestimation of CO₂ fluxes is possible depending on local atmospheric conditions and measurement errors in the sensible heat, latent heat, and CO₂ fluxes. We use open-path eddy-covariance fluxes measured over a black spruce forest in interior Alaska to explore several energy imbalance scenarios and their consequences for CO₂ fluxes.     

Potential Soil C Sequestration on U.S. Agricultural Soils

Soil carbon sequestration has been suggested as a means to help mitigate atmospheric CO₂ increases, however there is limited knowledge aboutthe magnitude of the mitigation potential. Field studies across the U.S. provide information on soil C stock changes that result from changes in agricultural management. However, data from such studies are not readily extrapolated to changes at a national scale because soils, climate, and management regimes vary locally and regionally. We used a modified version of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) soil organic C inventory method, together with the National Resources Inventory (NRI) and other data, to estimate agricultural soil C sequestration potential in the conterminous U.S. The IPCC method estimates soil C stock changes associated with changes in land use and/or land management practices. In the U.S., the NRI provides a detailed record of land use and management activities on agricultural land that can be used to implement the IPCC method. We analyzed potential soil C storage from increased adoption of no-till, decreased fallow operations, conversion of highly erodible land to grassland, and increased use of cover crops in annual cropping systems. The results represent potentials that do not explicitly consider the economic feasibility of proposed agricultural production changes, but provide an indication of the biophysical potential of soil C sequestration as a guide to policy makers. Our analysis suggests that U.S. cropland soils have the potential to increase sequestered soil C by an additional 60–70 Tg (10¹²g) C yr^{– 1}, over present rates of 17 Tg C yr^–1(estimated using the IPCC method), with widespread adoption of soil C sequestering management practices. Adoption of no-till on all currently annually cropped area (129Mha) would increase soil C sequestration by 47 Tg C yr^–1. Alternatively, use of no-till on 50% of annual cropland, with reduced tillage practices on the other 50%, would sequester less – about37 Tg C yr^–1. Elimination of summer fallow practices and conversionof highly erodible cropland to perennial grass cover could sequester around 20 and 28Tg C yr^–1, respectively. The soil C sequestration potentialfrom including a winter cover crop on annual cropping systems was estimated at 40Tg C yr^–1. All rates were estimated for a fifteen-yearprojection period, and annual rates of soil C accumulations would be expected to decrease substantially over longer time periods. The total sequestration potential we have estimated for the projection period (83 Tg C yr^–1) represents about 5% of 1999total U.S. CO₂ emissions or nearly double estimated CO₂ emissionsfrom agricultural production (43 Tg C yr^–1). For purposes ofstabilizing or reducing CO₂ emissions, e.g., by 7% of 1990 levels asoriginally called for in the Kyoto Protocol, total potential soil C sequestration would represent 15% of that reduction level from projected 2008 emissions(2008 total greenhouse gas emissions less 93% of 1990 greenhouse gasemissions). Thus, our analysis suggests that agricultural soil C sequestration could play a meaningful, but not predominant, role in helping mitigate greenhouse gas increases.