最佳类比法的孢粉-古气候定量重建研究进展

最佳类比法是基于孢粉数据定量重建古气候的重要方法之一,本文介绍目前在第四纪古气候研究中常用的几种最佳类比法软件和原理的基础上,简要陈述了应用这些软件的数据格式要求、运行步骤和各种方法比较。基于Windows操作系统实现最佳类比的Polygon软件具操作界面友好、易于掌握的特点,但在非相似性距离的阈值和样点类比数目确定方面没有自动判别功能; 而使用基于R语言环境的Analogue或MATTOOLS软件的最佳类比法则需要掌握一定的编程基础,但其扩展功能强大,在非相似性阈值和样点类比数目确定上使用ROC曲线(Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve)或者均方根误差(Root Mean Square Error of Prediction)进行判断。相对完善的现代表土孢粉数据库是运用最佳类比法准确定量重建古气候的重要前提,本文尝试R语言环境的Analogue软件包基于东亚现代表土孢粉数据当中的1749个样点数据对湖北神农架大九湖沼泽剖面孢粉数据进行定量古气候重建; 根据对现代数据集年平均温度均方根误差的判别结果,选择5个表土样点作为最佳数目进行温度因子计算,获得较好的重建结果。目前的东亚表土孢粉数据库以及大量的现代孢粉分布研究结果为利用类比法进行第四纪古环境重建奠定了基础。     

Quantitative interpretation of fossil pollen spectra: Dissimilarity coefficients and the method of modern analogs

Dissimilarity coefficients measure the difference between multivariate samples and provide a quantitative aid to the identification of modern analogs for fossil pollen samples. How eight coefficients responded to differences among modern pollen samples from eastern North America was tested. These coefficients represent three different classes: (1) unweighted coefficients that are most strongly influenced by large-valued pollen types, (2) equal-weight coefficients that weight all pollen types equally but can be too sensitive to variations among rare types, and (3) signal0to-noise coefficients that are intermediate in their weighting of pollen types. The studies with modern pollen allowed definition of critical values for each coefficient, which, when not exceeded, indicate that two pollen samples originate from the same vegetation region. Dissimilarity coefficients were used to compare modern and fossil pollen samples, and modern samples so similar to fossil samples were found that most of three late Quaternary pollen diagrams could be “reconstructed” by substituting modern samples for fossil samples. When the coefficients indicated that the fossil spectra had no modern analogs, then the reconstructed diagrams did not match all aspects of the originals. No modern analogs existed for samples from before 9300 yr B.P. at Kirchner Marsh, Minnesota, and from before 11,000 yr B.P. at Wintergreen Lake, Michigan, but modern analogs existed for almost all Holocene samples from these two sites and Brandreth Bog. New York.     

A method to determine warm and cool steppe biomes from pollen data; application to the Mediterranean and Kazakhstan regions

An objective method for the assignment of pollen spectra to appropriate biomes has been published recently. The aim of this paper is to improve the distinction between warm and cool steppes, thus refining vegetation and climate reconstruction, particularly during the Last Glacial Maximum. A set of modern pollen spectra from the Mediterranean and Kazakhstan regions, dominated today by open vegetation types, has been analysed statistically in order to relate pollen taxa abundances to warm and cool grass/shrub plant functional types (PFTs). A statistical test using modern pollen data shows that the method is able to distinguish between cool and warm steppe biomes with a high degree of confidence. The method has been applied to two fossil pollen records. The results of this exercise showed that cool steppe dominated in central Greece between 18 000 and 13 000 yr BP, while in western Iran the vegetation was at the boundary between cool and warm steppes. These vegetation types were replaced by warm mixed forest in Greece and warm steppe in Iran after that time span. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Postglacial diatom stratigraphy of Kirchner Marsh,Minnesota

Fossil diatom assemblages from a 12-m core from Kirchner Marsh were compared with modern surface assemblages from 159 Minnesota and labrador lakes using cluster analysis. The deepest levels of the core (spruce pollen zone 13,000 to 10,200 yr B.P.) resemble modern diatom assemblages from deep oligotrophic lakes of northeastern Minnesota. Diatom assemblages of the pine pollen zone (about 10,200 to 9500 yr B.P.) have few modern analogs. In the oak zone (9500 yr B.P. to present) after a brief pulse of diatom species indicative of eutrophication, the assemblages are dominated by species characteristic of shallow lakes, suggesting a drop in the lake water level during the prairie period (5500 to 7500 yr B.P.). Macrofossil data of W. A. Watts and T. C. Winter (1966, Geological Society of America Bulletin77, 1339–1360) show that this shift to shallow-water diatoms occurred when aquatic macrophytes appeared at the site in abundance.     

Dissimilarity mapping between fossil and contemporary pollen spectra in Europe for the past 13,000 years

The degree of analogy between fossil and contemporary pollen spectra in Europe has been investigated using the chord-distance dissimilarity measure. No-analog pollen spectra represent vegetation without a modern analog and hence, by inference, represent macroclimatic conditions different from any occurring in the region today. Such spectra have minimum chord distances that exceed a threshold value assessed using contemporary samples from the same and different vegetation u units. Contoured maps of minimum chord distance portray the changing patterns of analogous and no-analog pollen spectra, and hence vegetation units, since 13,000 yr B.P. No-analog vegetation units have been extensive in some regions for much of the Holocene, persisting as recently as 1000 years ago in many areas. The chord-distance measure has also been used to explore the patterns, extent, and rates of change in European pollen spectra since 13,000 yr B.P. Pollen spectra changed rapidly during late-glacial and early Holocene times and during the last millennium. Paleoclimatic changes have brought about the major changes in the Holocene paleovegetation of Europe. Human impact upon European vegetation has obscured neither the contemporary relationship between pollen spectra and vegetation nor the climatically determined long-term changes of vegetation across the continent since 13,000 yr B.P.     

Phytolith assemblages as a promising tool for reconstructing Mediterranean Holocene vegetation

The reliability of phytolith assemblage analysis for characterizing Mediterranean vegetation is investigated in this study. Phytolith assemblages are extracted from modern and buried Holocene soils from the middle Rhône valley (France). The relation between modern phytolith assemblages and the surrounding vegetation, as well as between fossil assemblages and contemporaneous vegetation, already reconstructed through other proxies, is discussed. We demonstrate that the main northwestern Mediterranean biomes are well distinguished by soil phytolith assemblage analysis. In particular, the density of pine and nonconiferous trees (densities expressed relatively to the grass cover) and the overall degree of opening of the vegetation appear well recorded by three phytolith indexes. North Mediterranean vegetation changes during the Holocene period, mainly tree line shifts, pine wood development and deforestation are poorly documented, due to the scarcity of proxy-preserving sites. Phytolith assemblage analysis of soils, buried soils, and sediments appears to be a promising technique to fill this gap.     

喜马拉雅山脉中段南坡孢粉垂直分布特征及影响因素

研究现代孢粉沿海拔梯度分布、传播特征及其驱动因素, 有助于提高基于孢粉重建古植被和古气候的可靠性。喜马拉雅山是全球中纬地区落差最大的山脉之一, 其中段南坡植被垂直带谱完整, 目前尚缺乏该垂直带谱孢粉现代过程研究。本研究通过喜马拉雅山脉中段南坡不同海拔26个表土样品(海拔梯度为3551~4444m)的孢粉分析并整合前人表土孢粉数据(n=138, 海拔梯度涵盖132~5000m), 系统分析了孢粉(包括组成、百分比含量、浓度及多样性)的垂直分异规律及其与气候、土地利用之间的关系。研究结果显示孢粉组合垂直分布特征能很好地代表植被垂直分布特征, 年降水和暖季气温是影响孢粉分布的重要气候要素。孢粉丰富度沿海拔梯度无明显分异特征; 而孢粉均匀度随海拔升高而显著降低(特别是海拔3500m以上区域), 能够代表植被群落随海拔的变化特征。常见乔木植物花粉(松属、云杉属、桦木属和栎属等)存在明显的向高海拔传播现象, 且不同类型间传播能力差异较大; 而柏科花粉传播能力差, 能很好地指示局地植被。表土样品孢粉浓度随海拔升高呈现降低趋势, 且高海拔地区较低的孢粉浓度一定程度上放大了由低海拔传播而来的乔木植物花粉对孢粉组合的影响。研究结果提示我们应注意乔木植物花粉传播能力差异对地层孢粉谱解释的可能影响。

     

青海共和盆地达连海湖泊流域表土花粉-气候响应面分析

孢粉分析是研究过去全球变化的一种重要方法,而研究花粉与现代气候之间的相互关系是古气候定量重建研究中的前沿课题。要预测未来气候的中长期变化,必须从花粉记录中定量提取古气候信息,建立的多种孢粉-气候数学模型必须经过不同边界条件下的古气候数据检验校正才能应用到实际当中。花粉-气候响应面方法是考虑了花粉与气候间的非线形关系上,提出的将现代花粉丰度在地理空间的分布转换为气候空间的分布,并以提供定量的古气候数据,已被广泛应用于COHMAP等各种重要古气候研究项目。本文就是利用该方法,以青藏高原东北部共和盆地达连海湖泊流域54个表土样品中的花粉丰度及采样点的气候参数为基础数据,通过主成分分析选择了特征值高且指示意义明显的4种花粉类型,对其丰度与7月平均温度及年平均降水量两个气候参数进行多项式回归分析,其结果显示模型对数据拟合较好,为定量重建该区古气候变化提出了较为准确的数量指标。     

中国山西张村上新世气候与海拔的初步研究

基于前人山西榆社盆地张村植物大化石和花粉组合资料,运用分布区叠加分析法,初步重建了山西张村上新世气候参数值和古海拔高度。研究结果表明,由不同数据来源计算的张村古气候参数数值变化范围大多落在今天的暖温带到北亚热带区间;依据原地埋藏的植物大化石组合推出上新世时山西张村地区存在植被垂直分带,周围为山地地形,由此估测的古湖海拔高程范围在400～1 000 m,明显低于今天约1 043 m的海拔高度,表明在上新世之后位于黄土高原东缘的张村地区还有抬升;支持前人关于更新世以来晋东南地区的整体缓慢抬升的推测。     

Stable carbon isotope analysis on fossil Cedrus pollen shows summer aridification in Morocco during the last 5000 years

Quantitative climate reconstructions from pollen typically rely on empirical relationships between pollen abundances or assemblages and climate, such as the modern analogue technique. However, these techniques may be problematic when applied to fossil sequences, as they cannot separate anthropogenic from climatic influence on pollen assemblages. Here, we reconstruct Mid‐ to Late Holocene summer aridity in the Middle Atlas, Morocco, using stable carbon isotope analysis of isolated fossil Cedrus pollen. This approach is based on well‐documented plant physiological responses to moisture stress and is therefore independent of vegetation composition. We find that there has been a general long‐term trend of increasing summer aridity in the region during the last 5000 years to the present day. The gradual decline of Cedrus atlantica forest in the Late Holocene follows this aridity trend. Additionally, we show how isolating a specific pollen type for carbon isotope analysis yields a robust climate signal, versus using pollen concentrates or bulk sediment. Our findings indicate that climate has become drier in the region and confirms the Mid‐ to Late Holocene aridification trend observed more widely in the western Mediterranean, using a novel proxy for this region with good potential for wider application in other environments.     

Multivariate statistical estimates of Holocene vegetation and climate change,forest-tundra transition zone,NWT, Canada

Newly derived fossil pollen data were obtained from four sites along a transect from the boreal forest limit into tundra in the eastern Northwest Territories. Multivariate statistical analyses were employed to interpret the pollen assemblages. Transfer functions were constructed between the pollen data and climatic data, and paleoclimatic estimates were derived. The objective nature of the reconstructions provides an independent verification of the general outlines of the chronology of tree-line movements during the mid- and late-Holocene as established in previous paleosol and pollen studies. Boreal forest extended to approximately 62°N, associated with mean July temperatures 1 to 3°C above modern means, from at least 5500 to 3700 yr B.P. Although a major episode of southward displacement of tree line at about 3700 yr B.P. is recorded, later events are not clearly represented. Considerations of the statistics, the time scales, and the nature of the pollen rain suggest only conservative interpretations of the results are possible. It is suggested that the pollen sites may have been sensitive recorders of regional vegetation change only when they were near the ecotone, corresponding to a climatic threshold.     

A lateglacial climatic reversion in hokkaido, Northeast Asia, inferred from the Larix pollen record

At present, Larix gmelini is a main component of taiga developed in north Sakhalin, northeast China and east Siberia. During the interval from ∼11.8 to 12.4 ka BP, pollen assemblages from north Hokkaido, Japan, are dominated by Larix. Pollen assemblages of this Lateglacial climatic reversal, known as the “Kenbuchi Stadial”, are similar to pollen assemblages from the Last Glacial Maximum in north Hokkaido. Vegetation of Hokkaido inferred from these pollen assemblages — open taiga composed of Larix gmelini, Pinus pumila and Picea jezoensis and/or Picea glehnii — may have been like that of north Sakhalin today. Comparison of these fossil pollen assemblages from Hokkaido with pollen assemblages from modern surface samples in Sakhalin suggests that ∼ 11.8 to 12.4 ka BP, temperatures relative to today were at least 9°C lower in January and 7°C lower in August, and that annual precipitation was at least 735 mm lower than present.     

呼伦湖表层沉积物花粉空间分布特征及影响因素探讨

对呼伦湖29个表层沉积物花粉组合和环境影响因子进行主成分分析(PCA)和冗余分析(RDA),探讨呼伦湖表层沉积物花粉组合的空间分布特征及造成空间分异的现代过程机制.研究结果表明,呼伦湖表层沉积物花粉组合空间分布差异显著,藜科和松属等花粉在湖泊东侧近岸地带百分含量较高,蒿属与桦属花粉在湖泊中部和西部百分含量较高.呼伦湖东岸盐生非地带性植被、主导风向形成的漂流、与水深相关的二次悬移再沉积过程以及河流搬运作用是影响呼伦湖表层沉积物花粉空间分异的主要因素,其中湖泊东岸盐生非地带性植被造成了藜科花粉百分含量在近东岸地带偏高,主导风向形成的由西向东的漂流作用可能导致了松属花粉百分含量在近东岸地带偏高.     

新疆东部托勒库勒湖流域表土花粉初步分析

研究现代表土花粉谱与植被及气候的关系对正确解译地层花粉所指示的植被演化历史以及生态环境具有重要意义。本文首次选取新疆东部托勒库勒湖盆地开展现代表土花粉与植被关系的分析。结果发现各个植被带的花粉组合与其主要植物成分具有良好的对应关系。湖泊表层样品的花粉组合是区域植被组成的综合反映; 莎草科花粉主要出现在草甸中; 禾本科是湖边草原中重要的花粉类型,该科花粉呈现出明显的低代表性; 藜科和蒿属是荒漠草原植被中两种最主要的花粉类型; 白刺属主要出现在低洼平坦的湖边,该属植物的分布与水源有着密切的关系; 在采自砾漠的样品中,菊科、麻黄属成为两种最主要的花粉类型,这对解释地质时期该湖地层中两种花粉组合所指示的植被演化和生态意义具有重要作用。     

Pollen‐based biome reconstructions for Colombia at 3000, 6000, 9000, 12 000, 15 000 and 18 000 14C yr ago: Late Quaternary tropical vegetation dynamics

Colombian biomes are reconstructed at 45 sites from the modern period extending to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The basis for our reconstruction is pollen data assigned to plant functional types and biomes at six 3000‐yr intervals. A reconstruction of modern biomes is used to check the treatment of the modern pollen data set against a map of potential vegetation. This allows the biomes reconstructed at past periods to be assessed relative to the modern situation. This process also provides a check on the a priori assignment of pollen taxa to plant functional types and biomes. For the majority of the sites, the pollen data accurately reflect the potential vegetation, even though much of the original vegetation has been transformed by agricultural practices. At 18 000 ¹⁴C yr BP, a generally cool and dry environment is reflected in biome, assignments of cold mixed forests, cool evergreen forests and cool grassland–shrub; the latter extending to lower altitudes than presently recorded. This signal is strongly recorded at 15 000 and 12 000 ¹⁴C yr BP, the vegetation at these times also reflecting a relatively cool and dry environment. At 9000 ¹⁴C yr BP there is a shift to biomes thought to result from slightly cooler environmental conditions. This trend is reversed by 6000 ¹⁴C yr BP; most sites, within a range of different environmental settings, recording a shift to more xeric biome types. There is an expansion of steppe and cool mixed‐forest biomes, replacing tropical dry forest and cool grassland–shrub biomes, respectively. These changes in biome assignments from the modern situation can be interpreted as a biotic response to mid‐Holocene climatic aridity. At 3000 ¹⁴C yr BP the shift is mainly to biomes characteristic of slightly more mesic environmental conditions. There are a number of sites that do not change biome assignment relative to the modern reconstruction, although the affinities that these sites have to a specific biome do change. These ‘anomalies’ are interpreted on a site‐by‐site basis. Spatially constant, but differential response of the vegetation to climatic shifts are related to changes in moisture sources and the importance of edaphic controls on the vegetation. The Late Quaternary reconstruction of large‐scale vegetation dynamics in Colombia allows an understanding of the environmental controls on these to be developed. In particular, shifts in the character of the main climatic systems that influence Colombian vegetation are described. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

硅藻分析与第四纪定量古地理和古气候研究

本文以硅藻分析为例,叙述了综合运用古生物数据和数理统计的手段进行定量恢复古地理环境和古气候的研究方法。内容包括建立现代生物-环境变量数据库和生物化石数据库的目的、要求、方法以及具体步骤,并通过一个海洋钻孔的实例对其成果解释作了详细介绍。     

Modern pollen assemblages from surface lake sediments and their environmental implications on the southwestern Tibetan Plateau

The relationships amongst modern pollen assemblages, vegetation, climate and human activity are the basis for reconstructing palaeoenvironmental changes using pollen records. It is important to determine these relationships at regional scales due to the development of vegetation under different climatic conditions and human activities. In this paper, we report on an analysis of modern pollen assemblages of 31 surface lake samples from 31 lakes (one sample per lake) on the southwestern Tibetan Plateau where the knowledge of modern pollen and their relationships with vegetation, climate and human activities is insufficient. The region includes five vegetation zones: sub‐alpine shrub steppe, alpine steppe, alpine meadow and steppe ecotone, mountain desert and alpine desert. The lakes span a wide range of mean annual precipitation (50–500 mm) and mean annual temperature (?8 to 6 °C). Modern pollen assemblages from our samples mainly consist of herb taxa (Artemisia, Cyperaceae, Poaceae, Chenopodiaceae, etc.) and some tree taxa (Pinus, Fagaceae, Alnus, etc.). The results indicate that modern pollen assemblages are able to reflect the main vegetation distribution. Redundancy analysis for the main pollen types and environmental variables shows that precipitation is the leading factor that influences the pollen distribution in the study area with the first axis capturing 13.7% of the variance in the pollen data set. The Artemisia/Chenopodiaceae ratio is valid for separating the desert component (<2) from the steppe and other vegetation zones (>2) but is unable to distinguish moisture variations. The Artemisia/Cyperaceae ratio is able to identify meadows (<1) and steppes (>1) and can be used as a moisture index on the southwestern Tibetan Plateau. Our results show that an appropriate range is needed for a modern pollen data set in order to perform pollen‐based quantitative climate reconstructions in one region. It is essential to perform modern studies before using pollen ratios to reconstruct palaeovegetation and palaeoclimate at a regional scale.     

川北若尔盖高原玛曲-红原一带表土中孢粉组合的特征

通过对四川若尔盖高原玛曲—红原一带20个表土孢粉样的分析,研究了该区域表土孢粉组合与现代植被的关系。结果显示,玛曲—红原一带表土的孢粉组合基本反映了现代植被的整体特征,与现代植被在植被类型、植被带的空间排列、主要建群种属和优势种属等方面基本一致。依据孢粉的百分含量,可以划分为亚高山灌丛植被区,亚高山灌丛、亚高山草甸植被区和高寒草甸、草原植被区3个植被带。表土花粉的代表性因种属的不同而各有差异,松属和菊科花粉具超代表性,云杉属花粉的代表性较好,禾本科和莎草科具低代表性,而桦木属则不具有超代表性,可能与桦木属花粉不易搬运有关。3个植被区中的表土孢粉的种类、比例与现代植被均存在一定的差别,这可能与植被退化有关。     

Recognising subtidal foraminiferal assemblages: implications for quantitative sea‐level reconstructions using a foraminifera‐based transfer function

Microfossil‐based transfer function models are increasingly used to provide decimeter‐scale sea‐level change reconstructions. In this paper I demonstrate that in the tropical location of northern Australia problems arise in selecting the appropriate elevation range for the modern training set used to calibrate fossil calcareous foraminiferal assemblages. Most calcareous foraminiferal species found in cores occur in both modern intertidal and shallow subtidal environments. A lack of independent measures to indicate whether fossil assemblages come from intertidal environments forces use of a training set that includes intertidal and subtidal environments. This results in decreased precision compared to using a training set solely from intertidal environments. The widely used method of assessing model fit to fossil assemblages (modern analogue technique) often fails to discriminate between acceptable and unacceptable reconstructions. It is important to investigate a number of different measures including modern analogue technique, canonical correspondence analysis and changing bootstrapped sample specific transfer function errors to fully understand the level of similarity between modern and fossil foraminiferal samples, to judge the reliability of transfer function‐predicted sea‐level reconstructions. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relationship between pollen assemblages in surface soil and modern vegetation and climate in the western Tianshan Mountains,Xinjiang北大核心CSCD

Based on the pollen spectrum characteristics of 46 surface samples collected in the western Tianshan Mountains of Xinjiang and a plant community quadrat survey, we analyzed the relationship between pollen assemblages and modern climate and vegetation distribution in the region. The results showed the surface pollen assemblages were consistent with the distribution of modern vegetation. Based on the results of cluster analysis, the study area could be divided into three pollen assemblage zones（mountain steppe zone, desert vegetation zone and typical desert zone）. In general, pollen assemblage can roughly reflect the main characteristics of local vegetation, but there are significant differences in the percentage of some pollen types and the coverage of related plants. The pollen of Picea and Pinus in arbor plants, Ephedra in shrub plants, Chenopodiaceae and Artemisia in herb plants were high represented due to the influence of natural wind, water flow and their own pollen yield. While Rosaceae pollen in shrubs and Poaceae in herbs were less representative in a modern plant community with its own dominant species;The Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae（A/C）ratio can distinguish the desert zone from the mountain steppe zone, and could clearly reflect the aridity level. However, when using this indicator to reconstruct the climate environment, it is necessary to combine the characteristics of pollen assemblage and the influence of changes in vegetation composition and other factors to distinguish;Altitude, average annual precipitation, and average annual temperature all affect the distribution of surface pollen in the area. © 2022 The authors.