初动在核爆监测中的应用及分析

核爆炸与地震相比,围绕爆炸源的初动具有更多的向上记录和更高的振幅周期比,初动可以作为核爆与地震的一个识别标志。某些核爆炸的向下记录。或许是由于低信噪比的原因,记录到的是初至波的第二个半周;其余的也许是由于近P波走时曲线的反射波造成。     

Source constraints of Tungurahua volcano explosion events

The most recent eruptive cycle of Tungurahua volcano began in May 2004, and reached its highest level of activity in July 2004. This activity cycle is the last one of a series of four cycles that followed the reawakening and major eruption of Tungurahua in 1999. Between June 30 and August 12, 2004, three temporary seismic and infrasonic stations were installed on the flanks of the volcano and recorded over 2,000 degassing events. The events are classified by waveform character and include: explosion events (the vast majority, spanning three orders of pressure amplitudes at 3.5 km from the vent, 0.1–180 Pa), jetting events, and sequences of repetitive infrasonic pulses, called chugging events. Travel-time analysis of seismic first arrivals and infrasonic waves indicates that explosions start with a seismic event at a shallow depth (<200 m), followed ∼1 s later by an out-flux of gas, ash and solid material through the vent. Cluster analysis of infrasonic signals from explosion events was used to isolate four groups of similar waveforms without apparent correlation to event size, location, or time. The clustering is thus associated with source mechanism and probably spatial distribution. Explosion clusters do not exhibit temporal dependence.     

Spatial uncertainty in bias corrected climate change projections and hydrogeological impacts

The question of which climate model bias correction methods and spatial scales for correction are optimal for both projecting future hydrological changes as well as removing initial model bias has so far received little attention. For 11 climate models (CMs), or GCM/RCM – Global/Regional Climate Model pairing, this paper analyses the relationship between complexity and robustness of three distribution‐based scaling (DBS) bias correction methods applied to daily precipitation at various spatial scales. Hydrological simulations are forced by CM inputs to assess the spatial uncertainty of groundwater head and stream discharge given the various DBS methods. A unique metric is devised, which allows for comparison of spatial variability in climate model bias and projected change in precipitation. It is found that the spatial variability in climate model bias is larger than in the climate change signals. The magnitude of spatial bias seen in precipitation inputs does not necessarily correspond to the magnitude of biases seen in hydrological outputs. Variables that integrate basin responses over time and space are more sensitive to mean spatial biases and less so on extremes. Hydrological simulations forced by the least parameterized DBS approach show the highest error in mean and maximum groundwater heads; however, the most highly parameterised DBS approach shows less robustness in future periods compared with the reference period it was trained in. For hydrological impacts studies, choice of bias correction method should depend on the spatial scale at which hydrological impacts variables are required and whether CM initial bias is spatially uniform or spatially varying. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Earlier days of gravity waves revisited

The means whereby the author came to be involved in the study of atmospheric gravity waves, and then came to involve others in that study, are outlined. In particular, events leading up to, during and following the International Symposium on Fluid Mechanics in the Ionosphere, of July 1959, are described.     

Applicability of P/S amplitude ratios for the discrimination of low magnitude seismic events

Applicability of regional P/S amplitude ratios for the discrimination of low-magnitude seismic events was tested and proved using earthquakes and explosions in Central Asia. Results obtained show that regional P/S amplitude ratios which may discriminate medium or large magnitude events well, are also applicable to low magnitude events. Their performances for low magnitude events are almost as good as that for medium or large events. Statistical comparisons based on 25 P/S discriminate from the four seismic stations WMQ, BLK, MUL and MAK showed that the average misclassification rate for low-magnitude seismic events averagely was only 2 percent higher than that for medium and large magnitude seismic events.     

P/S震相幅值比判据对低震级地震事件的适用性检验c

基于中国新疆及中亚地区大量天然地震和地下爆炸,检验了较大震级情况下得到的区域P/S震相幅值比识别判据对低震级地震事件的适用性. 分析结果表明,对较大震级地震事件具有较好识别效果的P/S震相幅值比判据对低震级事件同样适用,而且对低震级事件也具有与较大震级事件大致相当的识别效果. 据WMQ、BLK、MUL和MAK台的25个识别效果较好的P/S震相幅值比判据统计, 大于ML3.5和ML3.5以下地震事件的误识率之差约为2个百分点.     

An improved bias correction scheme based on comparative precipitation characteristics

Bias correction is a necessary post‐processing procedure in order to use regional climate model (RCM) simulated local climate variables as the input data for hydrological models owing to systematic errors of RCMs. Most of present bias correction methods adjust statistical properties between observed and simulated data on the basis of calendar periods, e.g. month or season. However, this matching statistic is only a necessary condition, not a sufficient condition, as temporal distribution of the precipitation between observed and simulated data is ignored. This study suggests an improved bias correction scheme that considers not only statistical properties but also the temporal distribution between the time series of observed and modelled data. The ratio of the observed precipitation to simulated precipitation is used to compare the behaviour between the observed and modelled precipitation data, and three criteria are proposed when dividing bias correction periods: (1) underestimation of precipitation, (2) stability of /underestimation of precipitation, (2) stability of precipitation ratio and (3) oscillation of precipitation ratio. The results show that the output of the proposed bias correction method follows the trend of the observed precipitation better than that of the conventional bias correction method. This study indicates that temporal distribution should not be ignored when choosing a comparison period for bias correction. However, the study is only a preliminary attempt to address this important issue, and we hope it will stimulate more research activities to improve the methodology. Future efforts on several unsolved problems have been suggested such as how to find out the optimal group number to avoid the overfitting and underfitting conditions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Joint bulk-sound and shear tomography for Western Pacific subduction zones

Detailed regional body wave tomographic inversion of the Western Pacific region has been performed using P and S travel times from common sources and receivers, with a joint inversion in terms of bulk-sound and shear wave-speed variations in the mantle. This technique allows the separation of the influence of bulk and shear moduli, and hence a more direct comparison with mineral physics information. The study region is parameterized with cells of side 0.5° to 2° and 19 layers to a depth of 1500 km, while the rest of the mantle was parameterized with 5×5° cells with 16 layers between the surface and the core–mantle boundary. A simultaneous inversion is made for regional and global structures to minimize the influence of surrounding structures on the regional image. A nested iterative inversion scheme is employed with local linearization and three-dimensional ray tracing through the successive model updates. The results of the regional tomographic inversion reveal the penetration of a subducted slab below the 660 km discontinuity at the Kurile–Kamchatka trench, while flattening of slabs above this depth is observed in the Japan and Izu–Bonin subduction zones on both the bulk-sound and shear wave-speed images. The penetration of a subducted slab down to a depth of at least 1200 km is seen below the southern part of the Bonin trench, Mariana, Philippine, and Java subduction zones. Fast shear wave-speed perturbations associated with the subducted slabs, down to the 410 km transition zone, are larger than the comparable bulk-sound perturbations for all these subduction zones except the Philippines. The bulk-sound signature for the subducted slab is more pronounced than for shear in the Philippines, Talaud, New Guinea, Solomon, and Tonga subduction zones, where penetration of the slab into the middle mantle is observed. Variation in the amplitude ratio between bulk-sound and shear wave-speed anomalies correlates well with the subduction parameters of the descending slab. Slabs younger than 90 Ma at the trench show bulk-sound dominance in the upper mantle, while older slabs have a stronger shear wave-speed signature. Spreading of the fast shear wave-speed zone between 800 and 1000 km is observed in the areas of deep subducted slab penetration, but has no comparable expression in the bulk-sound images. This high-velocity feature may reflect physical or chemical disequilibria introduced to the lower mantle by subducted slabs.     

Correcting bias in rainfall inputs to a semi-distributed hydrological model using downstream flow simulation errors

The focus of this study is on bias correcting semi-distributed rainfall inputs into a hydrological model applied in the Okavango River basin in southern Africa, where there are very few local observations and heavy reliance is placed on global rainfall datasets. While the hydrological model, before rainfall bias correction, is able to represent the broad characteristics of the sub-basin streamflow responses, as demonstrated by good agreement between observed and simulated flow duration curves, there are many years where the annual volumes are over- or underestimated. The long records of observed flow at downstream stations are successfully used to bias correct the rainfall inputs to the upstream sub-basins using an analysis of their individual contributions to downstream flow and their annual rainfall–runoff response ratios. The results show improved simulations for the relatively shorter observation periods at the upstream gauging stations.     

COSMIC低轨卫星GPS接收机差分码偏差估计

GPS接收机差分码偏差（Differential Code Bias,DCB）是利用COSMIC低轨卫星观测值反演电离层总电子含量TEC的一项重要误差源.本文将COSMIC卫星轨道高度以上的电离层作为一个单层,采用球谐函数来参数化电离层TEC值,并利用最小二乘法同时估算电离层球谐系数和DCB参数.运用这种方法对2012年12月份的所有COSMIC卫星GPS接收机DCB进行了解算,并与COSMIC数据分析与档案中心CDAAC提供的产品进行了比较.实验结果表明：在2012年12月期间,估计的接收机DCB与CDAAC结果符合的较好,二者DCB变化趋势相近,DCB差值的RMS值在2 TECU以内,且最大绝对差值小于3 TECU;此外,本文计算的接收机DCB估计误差主要分布在0.2~0.4 TECU之间,具有较高的内符合精度.     

根据构造环境剪应力值水平区分地震和核爆炸

根据地震破裂的断裂力学模式,导出了震源参数与地震发生处的构造环境剪应力值t0之间的函数关系．据此,可以大量计算震源处的构造环境剪应力值或背景应力值．若把核爆炸当作地震来计算,发现核爆炸的t0值平均在20MPa左右,明显地高于同震级地震的t0值．其结果可以作为区分地震与核爆炸的依据．     

Discrimination between nuclear explosions and earthquakes based on consideration of tectonic ambient shear stress values

IntroductionFor the need of a nuclear test ban treaty, international society must make great efforts to find effective methods for discrimination between earthquake and nuclear explosion. Thereupon, many methods of discrimination of nuclear explosion appeared. But, at present, there is some uncertainty to discriminate middle or small nuclear explosion (Peppin, McEvilly, 1974; Richards, Zarales, 1990). When we study tectonic ambient shear stress field of Southern California, we find that str…     

区域地震事件的纵横波差异与震源类型

简要介绍地震与爆炸的震源物理性质及地震波激发机制特征。利用地震观测波形直达纵横波震相能量释放的差异,在时间域引进标志事件震源性质的参量a。132个台站记录的22个不同震源类型事件的计算结果表明,a值具有震源性质依附效应,展现出在事件识别领域的应用前景。     

鲜水河地区现今形变及地球动力学特征

本文根据非线性理论的新方法，稳健估计技术和多核函数等，对鲜水河地区垂直和水平形变监测资料进行了分析处理，获得了鲜水河地区的现今地壳动态信息，从而分析获得鲜水河断裂的现今活动与地震的关系，鲜水河断裂的现今活动模型及其应力状态。     

The Influence of Path Corrections and a Three-dimensional Global <Emphasis Type="Italic">P</Emphasis>-wave Velocity Model on Seismic Event Location in Kazakhstan

We relocate 81 large nuclear explosions that were detonated at the Balapan and Degelen Mountain subregions of the Semipalatinsk test site in Kazakhstan during the years 1978 to 1989. The absolute locations of these explosions are available, as well as very accurate estimates of their origin times. This ground truth information allows us to perform a detailed analysis of location capability. We use a sparse network of stations with highly accurate first arrival picks measured using a waveform cross-correlation method. These high quality data facilitate very accurate location estimates with only a few phases per event. We contrast two different approaches: 1) a calibration-based approach, where we achieve improved locations by using path corrections, and 2) a model-based approach, where we achieve improved locations by relocating in a recently published global 3-D P-velocity model. Both methods result in large improvements in accuracy of the obtained absolute locations, compared to locations obtained in a 1-D reference earth model (ak135). The calibration-based approach gives superior results for this test site, in particular when arrival times from regional stations are included. Estimated locations remain well within a 1000 km² region surrounding the ground truth locations when the path corrections for the Balapan and Degelen Mountain subregions are interchanged, but even for the short separation between these two regions, we find variations in the path corrections that cause systematic mislocations. The model-based approach also results in substantially reduced mislocation distances and has the distinct advantage that it is, in principle, transportable to other source regions around the world.     

Body-wave passive seismic interferometry revisited: mining exploration using the body waves of local microearthquakes

As the global need for mineral resources is constantly rising and the exploitable concentrations of these resources tend to become increasingly complex to explore and exploit, the mining industry is in a constant quest for innovative and cost-effective exploration solutions. In this context, and in the framework of the Smart Exploration action, an integrated passive seismic survey was launched in the Gerolekas bauxite mining site in Central Greece. A passive seismic network, consisting of 129 three-component short-period stations was installed and operated continuously for 4 months. The acquired data permitted detection of approximately 1000 microearthquakes of very small magnitude (duration magnitude ranging between –1.5 and 2.0), located within or at a very close distance from the study area. We use this microseismicity as input for the application of passive seismic interferometry for reflection retrieval, using the body waves (P- and S-wave coda) of the located microearthquakes. We retrieve by autocorrelation zero-offset virtual reflection responses, per component, below each of the recording stations. We process the acquired results using reflection processing techniques to obtain zero-offset time and depth sections, both for P- and for S-waves. In the context of the present work, we evaluate one of the acquired depth sections, using an existing seismic line passing through the Gerolekas passive seismic network, and we perform forward modelling to assess the quality and value of the acquired results. We confirm that passive seismic reflected-wave interferometry could constitute a cost-effective and environmentally friendly innovative exploration alternative, especially in cases of difficult exploration settings.     

Out-of-plane (SH) soil-structure interaction: Semi-circular rigid foundation revisited

The model studied in this paper presents an extension of previous work for a shear wall on a semi-circular rigid foundation in an isotropic homogeneous and elastic half-space. The objective is to develop a soil-structure interaction model that can later be applied to the case of a flexible foundation. As shown in the Introduction below, Luco considered the case of a rigid foundation subjected to vertical incident plane SH waves, and Trifunac extended the solution for the same rigid foundation subjected to SH waves but for arbitrary angles of the incidence. In this paper, a new approach and model are presented for the same semi-circular rigid foundation with a tapered-shape (instead of rectangular) superstructure. The analytical expression for the deformation of the semi-circular rigid foundation below this tapered shear wall with soil-structure interaction in an isotropic homogeneous and elastic half-space is thus derived. Results are then compared with those of Trifunac discussed in the section below. This problem formulation can and will later be extended in the case of a flexible foundation that is semi-circular or arbitrarily shaped.     

Near-realtime source analysis of the 20 March 2012 Ometepec-Pinotepa Nacional,Mexico earthquake

We apply a single-step, finite-fault analysis procedure to derive a coseismic slip model for the large M_W 7.4 Ometepec-Pinotepa Nacional, Mexico earthquake of 20 March 2012, using teleseismic P waveforms recorded by the Global Seismographic Network. The inversion is conducted in near-realtime using source parameters available from the USGS/NEIC and the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (gCMT) project. The fault orientation and slip angle are obtained from the gCMT mechanism assuming that the fault coincides with the shallow-dipping nodal plane. The fault dimensions and maximum rise time are based on the magnitude reported for the event. Teleseismic data from the USGS/NEIC Continuous Waveform Buffer database are used in the inversion with record start times set to the P-wave arrivals used to compute the earthquake hypocenter. The inversion is stabilized by requiring a smooth transition of slip across the fault while minimizing the seismic moment. These constraints are applied using a smoothing weight that is estimated from the inverse problem, allowing the recovery of the least-complicated rupture history in a single step. Inversion of the deconvolved, ground-displacement waveforms reveals a simple, circular rupture similar in extent to the source identified by the USGS/NEIC using body-and surface-wave data, indicating that the teleseismic P waves can provide a first-order source model for the event in near-realtime. Additional inversions conducted using velocity records identify a more-detailed rupture model characterized by an elliptical 2500 km² source region extending updip and downdip from the hypocenter. This elliptical source preserves the orientation and overall dimensions of a dual-source slip model obtained recently by other investigators using local strong motions and global seismic waveforms. The results indicate that velocity waveforms could provide additional details of the earthquake rupture in near-realtime, finite-fault inversions using teleseismic P waves.     

A new laboratory technique for determining the compressional wave properties of marine sediments at sonic frequencies and in situ pressures

We describe a new laboratory technique for measuring the compressional wave velocity and attenuation of jacketed samples of unconsolidated marine sediments within the acoustic (sonic) frequency range 1–10 kHz and at elevated differential (confining – pore) pressures up to 2.413 MPa (350 psi). The method is particularly well suited to attenuation studies because the large sample length (up to 0.6 m long, diameter 0.069 m) is equivalent to about one wavelength, thus giving representative bulk values for heterogeneous samples. Placing a sediment sample in a water‐filled, thick‐walled, stainless steel Pulse Tube causes the spectrum of a broadband acoustic pulse to be modified into a decaying series of maxima and minima, from which the Stoneley and compressional wave, velocity and attenuation of the sample can be determined. Experiments show that PVC and copper jackets have a negligible effect on the measured values of sediment velocity and attenuation, which are accurate to better than ± 1.5% for velocity and up to ± 5% for attenuation. Pulse Tube velocity and attenuation values for sand and silty‐clay samples agree well with published data for similar sediments, adjusted for pressure, temperature, salinity and frequency using standard equations. Attenuation in sand decreases with pressure to small values below Q^?1 = 0.01 (Q greater than 100) for differential pressures over 1.5 MPa, equivalent to sub‐seafloor depths of about 150 m. By contrast, attenuation in silty clay shows little pressure dependence and intermediate Q^?1 values between 0.0206–0.0235 (Q = 49–43). The attenuation results fill a notable gap in the grain size range of published data sets. Overall, we show that the Pulse Tube method gives reliable acoustic velocity and attenuation results for typical marine sediments.     

Assimilation of hydrologic and hydrometeorological data into distributed hydrologic model: Effect of adjusting mean field bias in radar-based precipitation estimates

This paper investigates the effect of adjusting the mean field bias (MFB) in radar-based precipitation data on analysis and prediction of streamflow and soil moisture in assimilating streamflow or streamflow and in situ soil moisture data into distributed hydrologic models. To evaluate the effect of adjusting the MFB under realistic as well as idealized conditions, both real-world and synthetic experiments are carried out for the Eldon Catchment on the border of Oklahoma and Arkansas in the US. In the synthetic experiment, the MFB is modeled as a stationary Markov chain process. The synthetic experiment showed that adjusting the MFB in the assimilation process significantly improves streamflow analysis when the initial conditions are known with reasonable certainty, and that assimilating soil moisture in addition to streamflow improves analysis of streamflow as well as soil moisture if the initial conditions are largely uncertain. Adjusting the MFB during the assimilation process noticeably improved streamflow analysis over ranges of the MFB and random noise in the precipitation data. On the other hand, increasing the MFB and random noise in the precipitation data tended to degrade soil moisture analysis due possibly to over-adjusting soil moisture to mitigate the precipitation error. The real-world experiment with one-year dataset showed that adjusting the MFB during the assimilation process helped capture the peak as well as volume of outlet flow analysis as well as prediction, and that additionally assimilating interior flow observations was necessary to improve analysis and prediction of peak flows at interior locations.